I understand where you are coming from. I have wanted this team to actually commit to a rebuild for twenty years - funny how that corresponds to my tenure on this board. But I’m just not sure I fully grasp your implementation plan.
The Rangers should not have been in a position to draft Laf and/or Kakko. The team was not the bottom feeder that usually gets to make those picks.
Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox, and Shesterkin are all “top 5” type talents. You dance a jig if your draft picks pan out into those players. If Laf and Kakko were what they were supposed to be, the depth of talent on this squad would be just insane.
Typically Laf and Kakko step into teams devoid of talent and are immediately the most skilled players. Those teams tend to still suck as a result, so they have opportunities to draft their own Zibanejad, Fox, etc.
We already did what you want us to do, we just did it backwards. We also simply got unlucky in that our top guys are just not the elite of the elite. There is zero guarantee that you get the mix you want regardless of how long you suck.
There is zero guarantee about anything.
But there is a template. Yeah, I know, everyone scoffs at that, as if you can't measure and compare the Cup winners. Especially the repeat winners (or at least repeat Finals appearance teams, such as Boston). It's "utopia," they say. It's a fantasy.
Well, it's not a fantasy. As I've said, at any given time, there are a couple teams in the league with an existing "core," -- and certainly that is a fluid definition because rosters change literally all the time, but I think we all know a core when we see one -- that will not only win a Cup but also be in the mix long term to win more than one. Even if it's just two teams out of 32, that's a 1/16th odds. That's not a fantasy, it's a very real numerical existence that you just have to work hard to break into.
At least how the last decade and a half has played out. LA, Chicago, Boston, Pittsburgh, Tampa. My guess is that Colorado joins this group by appearing in another Finals or two if not winning another with their MacKinnon/Makar core. But that's 5 teams that have won 11 of the last 15 Cups, and really that number is likely going to be 12 once we officially put Colorado in there in the next few years when they win again. 12 Cups in a 15 Cup span. 80% of the Cups. Would I rather suffer longer so I can join the 5 team club that wins 12 Cups, or would I rather take a short cut to the playoffs just so I can remain in the 27 team club that wins 3 Cups? Do the math.
You can look at all those super teams and make some sort of characterization of their high end quality and quality of depth. At no point have we ever favorably compared to any of those teams - either because when the "top 5 talents," you named were at their best (Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox, Shesterkin), the supporting cast sucked out loud (Laf and Kakko each had seasons as net negative players early in their careers, we employed too many black holes such as Howden, Reaves, Staal, Brendan Smith, Patrick Nemeth), or maybe now that the kids are starting to come around to better supporting players, guys like Panarin and Zibanejad are declining and no-showing.
We can have all the reasons we want as to why Laf, Kakko and Chytil didn't quickly turn into high end players while Panarin, Zibanejad, and Kreider were at their peaks but ultimately it doesn't matter. We're going to have two cores passing like ships in the night unless Laviollette gets these guys to play way better at 5v5 like, immediately, thereby quickly achieving the necessary talent level/production out of all these guys at the same time. They have like, this season, MAYBE next season.
If that doesn't happen, it's rebuild time again.
What is my implementation plan?
First, realize your long odds. Hell, it's everyone's rebuttal to the idea of a long rebuild: "Almost everyone loses, stop calling playoff eliminations 'failures,' because that's what happens to almost all teams, it's all random hot streaks, you can't make a real plan to win a Cup."
Ok, if that's the case, then #1, stop f***ing throwing away assets on randomness. Stop trading away picks for rentals. It's all just random anyway; if Panarin is going to show up and dominate, then we don't need to pay a first for Tarasenko. Those transactions ALMOST NEVER end up boosting a team enough to be the difference between winning and losing. Most of the times they have occurred, the players are acquired for long term, and not just one 6 week run, so if you are going to trade assets make sure it's a player you are going to want to bring back and be able to.
#2, once we bust on these long odds, which, since it's random and all and we are about the 10th best team in the league on paper, it's almost certain that we will in fact end up eliminated in the playoffs again, realize that subjecting yourself to entire eras where you are just hoping to get hot or lucky at the right time to be elevated over the other 12 teams who are similarly talented to you, is bad odds. Realize that if you are going to have to suffer for 4 years, why not make it 6 which could dramatically increase your talent pool and thus, give you an on-paper talent edge over the other 10-12 "second round playoff" caliber teams?
Yes, the draft is not an exact science, but it's actually NOT all random. Again, I can plot out a course for the NY Rangers dating back to the moment they decided to re-sign Chris Kreider, that probably puts them worse right this second but FAR BETTER positioned for the next 10 years.
Since we didn't win a Cup to this point anyway and probably won't this year.... that other course is probably the one we should have chosen.
The playoffs is a random as hell, every year lower ranked teams go on a run. Having your best players playing to their caphits or even better above their caphit is the difference between a deep run and a early exit.
The easiest way to get players outperforming their caphit is on ELC's and 2. contracts. So I really dislike paying for rentals. Both Kane and Tarasenko was good deals from NYR point of view compared to what the rest of the league did, but I believe its a better bet to keep those picks and get the value trough cheap contracts for young players. Do you get to many young players do what LAK did with the Dubois deal and trade quantity for quality.
If I was a GM with job security to do whatever I wanted I would follow these principles:
1: Never trade anything more then a 3. rounder for a rental. Do the Motte deals, but not the Copp/Tarasenko deals.
2: Never allow any decent player walk as UFA, if a deal cant be made for an extension before their last season start, trade them if possible.
3: Do not pay your goalie above 7% of the cap per year. This caphit usually gives you better value spent on other positions.
4: If the future of the rooster looks bad, doing a rebuild sooner rather then later is the better way. "last kick of the can" will set you back way to much.
5: Be patient with a rebuild, and very careful with UFA/long time contracts with many UFA years.
Preach it.
And the Rangers jump-starting of their rebuild with "the letter" in 2018 - and really their realization of the need to rebuild early when they traded Stepan in 2017 - was exactly due to your point #4.
They got such a jump on the rebuild that way, it's just a shame that they busted their first two picks and then didn't see it through.
