Roster Building Thread VI (2022-23): Offseason edition

[GoAwayPanarin]

Center depth is the most over rated aspect of team building.

Teams with "elite" centers would be just as good if those guys played wing.

It generally doesn't really matter where guys play. If you have good players and your good players play better than your opponents good players, you generally win more often than you lose.

 

[mas0764]

Maybe we should start drafting a few centers with those early picks, too.

I mean, tough to say that you should pass on Perrault just to take a center, but yeah, Wyatt Johnston over Brennan Othmann would be real nice about now.

Center depth is the most over rated aspect of team building.

Teams with "elite" centers would be just as good if those guys played wing.

It generally doesn't really matter where guys play. If you have good players and your good players play better than your opponents good players, you generally win more often than you lose.

But the best players are usually centers.

 

[UnparalledPark]

Heres a better exercise.

Here is a list of the forwards with cap hits of 10 or more per a year and their playoff numbers the last 5 years (Using new extensions for MacK and Pasta) in order of their cap hits

MacKinnon - 74 in 64 (1.15 PPG)
McDavid - 66 in 36 (1.81 PPG. Side note: it is criminal he has never made it to the finals.)
Panarin - 31 in 41 (.75 PPG)
Matthews - 37 in 38 (1 PPG)
Pastrnak - 55 in 59 (.93 PPG)
Tavares - 20 in 30 (.66 PPG)
Marner - 34 in 37 (.92 ppg)
Huberdeau - 15 in 20 (.75 ppg)
Barkov - 34 in 41 (.83 ppg)
Eichel - 26 in 22 (1.18 ppg, literally just this year.)
Kopitar - 11 in 13 (.85 ppg)


Of all the forwards making 10 mill or more, he is tied for the second lowest PPG in the playoffs over the last 5 years. Again, if you want to limit this to the last 4 (his time as a Ranger) he goes from tied for the 2nd lowest to tied for the lowest outright. He has the 3rd highest cap hit on the list.

Looking forward to all the excuse making for this player continue into the season by the same 5 people when the coaching change doesn't result in a massive turnaround in performance. Hes been a colossal disappointment in crunch time, that can't really be argued.

If theres one takeaway from this list, its that the "ONCE IN A LIFETIME NEVER AVAILABLE IN FREE AGENCY ELITE PLAYERS" are terrible investments.
You're better off trading for elite players earlier in their career if they're available, even if they cost assets.

This is ridiculous. Who does Panarin play with? Panarin plays on the 2nd line with who, Trochek? Who is his RW? Maybe after the trade deadline he’ll get a top 9 RW and have 6 weeks to acclimate himself to his new linemates. I suspect if he spent years on Boston‘s or Toronto’s top lines, he would have much better playoff numbers.

 

[Machinehead]

Center depth is the most over rated aspect of team building.

Teams with "elite" centers would be just as good if those guys played wing.

It generally doesn't really matter where guys play. If you have good players and your good players play better than your opponents good players, you generally win more often than you lose.

This. Centers are a psy-op. Most top centers aren't even good at defense anymore.

The only thing with centers is that good players grow up playing center when they're kids because of the center bias at all levels.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I mean, tough to say that you should pass on Perrault just to take a center, but yeah, Wyatt Johnston over Brennan Othmann would be real nice about now.



But the best players are usually centers.

That isn't really true anymore.

Roles are all interchangeable and a lot of the "traditional" definitions for what a center is and what a winger is don't really apply anymore.

30 years ago, Marner would be a center and Matthews would be a winger. Fast forward to 2023 and its the opposite. They'd both likely be as effective if they were deployed like they would have been in the 90s.

Plus there are more winger spots on a roster than there are C spots. It would be wise to be the strongest where you have more spots to fill. Doesn't mean you can't just line up some dumb schmuck at C and expect to make it work but there are plenty of players who are good enough.

Get as many top 6 worthy guys in your top 9 with a touch of diversity in skill sets amongst your group and you're good to go.

This is ridiculous. Who does Panarin play with? Panarin plays on the 2nd line with who, Trochek? Who is his RW? Maybe after the trade deadline he’ll get a top 9 RW and have 6 weeks to acclimate himself to his new linemates. I suspect if he spent years on Boston‘s or Toronto’s top lines, he would have much better playoff numbers.

He also plays on a PP with Fox, Zibanejad and Kreider on one of the leagues best units over the last 4 years.

You can't have it both ways.

Plus if hes making THAT kind of money, it shouldn't matter who he's playing with. At that price point he should be the guys brining other players up, not needing the support to be dragged up by his line mates.

Also peep @Synergy27 's post above. Hes been abysmal in the playoffs, even more so than the guys he has played with.

 

[bhamill]

View attachment 729698

Me waiting for Lundqvist/Shesterkin to "go on a hot streak."

It's the same thing with Panarin. An individual getting hot is not carrying a sub-par team all the way.

Hahahaha. Well you were talking about Akira throwing up a .999, so...

 

[LOFIN]

My 2 cents (which no-one probably cares about) the goalies: you need good goaltending to win in the playoffs. Colorado run was an outlier, where they had BAD goaltending and still won. Usually, you need good goaltending. Binnington was good, Hill was good. Vasilevsky was obviously good.

With a great goalie, you are more likely to get that good goaltending. But good goaltending alone is not enough to carry you to a cup. It wasn't with Lundqvist, it wasn't and probably won't be with Shestyorkin. That said, I'm all in for holding on to Shesty as long as it makes financially sense. It probably won't when he's going to ask for 10mil on his next contract, and the cap is still not 100mil.

And also agree, centers are overrated. It's just easy to fall in the trap of overrating them because of faceoffs and defensive impact, and I do admit I tend to fall into that trap as well. But the biggest need is for a play-driving forward, who can create offence on his own. That player can be a winger, or a center, doesn't really matter. That's like 80% of the importance of a forward. It's just that centers are more visible in doing that extra work in defence and faceoffs, so they tend to be thought about as more important. But you need to look at the individual player to see what his impact on these two areas is. Nathan MacKinnon, most would argue is a top-3 center in this league. He takes roughly half of the faceoffs when playing with Landeskog. So is he a poor center, or is Landy just a good winger? Or do faceoffs really matter at all? We tend to think so, but stats probably show they don't.

 

[bhamill]

If you play the odds then you don't commit top dollars to a goalie and instead go pay a center.

I'd say you get the best you can get at EVERY position for the money. There's balance. Get the best you can without over committing. Just seems logical to me.

 

[UnparalledPark]

That isn't really true anymore.

Roles are all interchangeable and a lot of the "traditional" definitions for what a center is and what a winger is don't really apply anymore.

30 years ago, Marner would be a center and Matthews would be a winger. Fast forward to 2023 and its the opposite. They'd both likely be as effective if they were deployed like they would have been in the 90s.

Plus there are more winger spots on a roster than there are C spots. It would be wise to be the strongest where you have more spots to fill. Doesn't mean you can't just line up some dumb schmuck at C and expect to make it work but there are plenty of players who are good enough.

Get as many top 6 worthy guys in your top 9 with a touch of diversity in skill sets amongst your group and you're good to go.



He also plays on a PP with Fox, Zibanejad and Kreider on one of the leagues best units over the last 4 years.

You can't have it both ways.

Plus if hes making THAT kind of money, it shouldn't matter who he's playing with. At that price point he should be the guys brining other players up, not needing the support to be dragged up by his line mates.

Also peep @Synergy27 's post above. Hes been abysmal in the playoffs, even more so than the guys he has played with.

What? Neither Kreider nor Zimba are as talented as Boston or Toronto or Colorado etc. players, and again, in the playoffs he does not play with our top players, he plays with our RW renta-skaters. How many YEARS has Boston and Toronto top line players played together?

 

[duhmetreE]

Centers, especially your middle6, need to be strong skating 2way guys

 

[mas0764]

I'd say you get the best you can get at EVERY position for the money. There's balance. Get the best you can without over committing. Just seems logical to me.

Well, if it comes to say, drafting, sure. Take BPA.

But unfortunately, due to the salary cap if no other reason, signing extensions, or targeting players in free agency or trade, means you have limited resources to commit.

It's unfortunately a zero sum game. If there was no salary cap and you lucked into finding a Shesterkin in the 4th round? Sure. Pay him forever.

But having a goalie command a top-3 goalie contract will mean you have to shortchange your roster somewhere else; but goalie is the position you should be rubbing your nickels together on, given it's impact is extremely similar across the league's 32 starters.

 

[Machinehead]

Well, if it comes to say, drafting, sure. Take BPA.

But unfortunately, due to the salary cap if no other reason, signing extensions, or targeting players in free agency or trade, means you have limited resources to commit.

It's unfortunately a zero sum game. If there was no salary cap and you lucked into finding a Shesterkin in the 4th round? Sure. Pay him forever.

But having a goalie command a top-3 goalie contract will mean you have to shortchange your roster somewhere else; but goalie is the position you should be rubbing your nickels together on, given it's impact is extremely similar across the league's 32 starters.

Yeah, it's all about the cap.

Having a great goaltender is not a bad thing. It just doesn't provide much value when there's a financial limit on who you can employ.

 

[SA16]

Try looking at more than just total points. Hockey is more nuanced than that.

He hasn't lived up to his contract the last 2 years, playoffs or regular season. His 5 v 5 play has dropped dramatically. He doesn't backcheck or go to the hard areas, and he turns the puck over way too much.

These are his points per 60 numbers at 5 on 5 since he's been a Ranger:

2019-20: 3.28
2020-21: 3.06
2021-22: 2.52
2022-23: 2.45

These are his regular season numbers. I don't know how anyone can look at that and argue that he's hasn't declined.

Maybe you're right that he will return to form with a new coach. He had better, or this team isn't winning anything.

You're also neglecting the fact that his first two seasons were wildly better than anything he had ever done beforehand. His last two seasons scoring numbers have far exceeded his production in Chicago and were better than one CBJ year/worse than the other. The expectations are just out of touch with reality because he signed here and got way better than he ever was before which is exceedingly rare for a UFA.

That being said, I also don't really understand why anyone would expect a player who signed as a UFA to be as good in the 4th year of his deal as he was in his first. He was 28. Now he'll be 32. Players get worse as they get older.

 

[bhamill]

Well, if it comes to say, drafting, sure. Take BPA.

But unfortunately, due to the salary cap if no other reason, signing extensions, or targeting players in free agency or trade, means you have limited resources to commit.

It's unfortunately a zero sum game. If there was no salary cap and you lucked into finding a Shesterkin in the 4th round? Sure. Pay him forever.

But having a goalie command a top-3 goalie contract will mean you have to shortchange your roster somewhere else; but goalie is the position you should be rubbing your nickels together on, given it's impact is extremely similar across the league's 32 starters.

I didn't say give him a top three goalie contract. I said get the best you can WITHOUT over committing...

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

What? Neither Kreider nor Zimba are as talented as Boston or Toronto or Colorado etc. players, and again, in the playoffs he does not play with our top players, he plays with our RW renta-skaters. How many YEARS has Boston and Toronto top line players played together?

Lol what?

You realize that Pastrnak played the large majority of his minutes last year with the likes of Pavel Zacha and an old ass David Krejci (Then Bertuzzi eventually once he was traded for) right?

The year before it was Taylor Hall and Erik Haula.

Panarin has played with some combo of Strome/Copp/Tarasenko/Kane/Trochek for the large majority of the last 2 years. He got significant minutes with Zibanejad this year too (and thats a combo which for what ever reason, has never worked but thats another conversation entirely.)

Regardless, its all silly excuse making. He's been awful (like worse than his line mates) in the playoffs and not just from a production standpoint.

Matt Tkachuk lit up the playoffs playing with Bennett and Nick f***ing Cousins.

Eichel played with JAM and Barbashev.

NONE of those guys are any better than the guys who Panarin has played with, with Cousins easily being the worst of the group.

The excuse making has to stop. The other top guys aren't just out producing him by a few points here or there, it's quite significant.

You're also neglecting the fact that his first two seasons were wildly better than anything he had ever done beforehand. His last two seasons scoring numbers have far exceeded his production in Chicago and were better than one CBJ year/worse than the other. The expectations are just out of touch with reality because he signed here and got way better than he ever was before which is exceedingly rare for a UFA.

That being said, I also don't really understand why anyone would expect a player who signed as a UFA to be as good in the 4th year of his deal as he was in his first. He was 28. Now he'll be 32. Players get worse as they get older.

League scoring has gone up since pretty much the second he signed here and has continued to go up.

His numbers have dropped in every season since his first one here. As you said he's getting worse as he's getting older and its one of the many reasons why singing him was dumb.

His game has tanked in the playoffs which doesn't help.

 

[mas0764]

I didn't say give him a top three goalie contract. I said get the best you can WITHOUT over committing...

Isn't that what he's likely to command? He's won a Vezina and very well could win another.

 

[LOFIN]

Isn't that what he's likely to command? He's won a Vezina and very well could win another.

Not signing for any less than Sorokin that's for sure (provided he continues to perform to his current level).

 

[bhamill]

Isn't that what he's likely to command? He's won a Vezina and very well could win another.

Maybe? But I'm talking in generalities. Obviously if we can't sign him for a number that works, then we can't sign him...

 

[bhamill]

Not signing for any less than Sorokin that's for sure (provided he continues to perform to his current level).

Well Sorokin is at 8.25... With the cap at 100mil in probably 3-4 years, is 8.5ish too much?

 

[Matt Rentfree]

It's gotten a little dark in here, lol.

Pfft. It'll be fine. Machinehead can have Jovo's liver and Jovo can have his Drunkle's liver. Easy peasey.

 

[Leonardo87]

I have to agree with @Machinehead when it comes to goaltending. Ducks are going through this thing with Gibson I’m sure you have heard, and honestly , it helps the team more than hurts with him leaving because of the cap hit. Plus Lukas Dostal looks to have serious potential and they are paying him like 800k for the next two years.

I’ve also learned from the last two cup winners, goaltending can be mediocre and your team can still win a cup.

Love Shesty but need to be careful with his next contract.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Pfft. It'll be fine. Machinehead can have Jovo's liver and Jovo can have his Drunkle's liver. Easy peasey.

I will drop kick anyone who comes within 10 feet of Jovo's uncle.

 

[UnparalledPark]

Lol what?

You realize that Pastrnak played the large majority of his minutes last year with the likes of Pavel Zacha and an old ass David Krejci (Then Bertuzzi eventually once he was traded for) right?

The year before it was Taylor Hall and Erik Haula.

Panarin has played with some combo of Strome/Copp/Tarasenko/Kane/Trochek for the large majority of the last 2 years. He got significant minutes with Zibanejad this year too (and thats a combo which for what ever reason, has never worked but thats another conversation entirely.)

Regardless, its all silly excuse making. He's been awful (like worse than his line mates) in the playoffs and not just from a production standpoint.

Matt Tkachuk lit up the playoffs playing with Bennett and Nick f***ing Cousins.

Eichel played with JAM and Barbashev.

NONE of those guys are any better than the guys who Panarin has played with, with Cousins easily being the worst of the group.

The excuse making has to stop. The other top guys aren't just out producing him by a few points here or there, it's quite significant.



League scoring has gone up since pretty much the second he signed here and has continued to go up.

His numbers have dropped in every season since his first one here. As you said he's getting worse as he's getting older and its one of the many reasons why singing him was dumb.

His game has tanked in the playoffs which doesn't help.

I don’t intend to make excuses for him, but seriously, who has been his most consistent RW for him the past couple of years? How do you expect him to perform at an optimal rate in the playoffs with 1/3 of his line continually being a TDL piece. It would be easier if he was a prolific goal scorer, but he is a puck distributor, and it’s tougher to put up points when you are continuously playing on a line with new people. Other puck distributors such as Marner, McKinnon, etc. have had the luxury of playing with the same prolific goal scoring linemates over multiple years.
And I’m just curious, where do you find these stats about amount of minutes skaters play with different teammates etc. Thanks.

 

[Leonardo87]

I will drop kick anyone who comes within 10 feet of Jovo's uncle.

Jovo’s uncle is actually my Father’s, Brother’s, Nephew’s, Cousin’s, Former roommate.

 

[Machinehead]

Jovo’s uncle is actually my Father’s, Brother’s, Nephew’s, Cousin’s, Former roommate.

So he's your cousin's former roommate?