Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXVII

[Ola]

These are facts:

We have 13.5m projected for next season with a 14 player lineup. Add Jones, Schneider and a backup with minimum wage and we end up at 10.5m with 17 players. Kakko and Blais are our RFAs.

The Cap is going up 1m for 23/24. We have 3m coming of the books in 23/24. In the summer of 23 we have to resign Laf, K’Andre and Chytil. Both Kreider and Trouba have full NMCs in the summer of 23.

Miller is a tremendous stud coming of a ELC. Laf will perform better and better. The 3m coming of the books won’t be enough to resign those two, of course. Of the 10m we have to spend this summer, facts are that 4-5m must be coming off the books next summer if we want to keep Miller and Laf while not trading the only guys we have with value and no NMC, ie Fox and Shestyorkin.

I am not against going with this team next season:
Kreider-Ziba-Kravy
Panarin-Laf-Kakko
Goodrow-Chytil-Blais
Reeves-Rooney-Hunt
Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Jones-Schneider
Nemeth
Shesty
*Hellberg*

 

[huerter]

If you aren't facilitating Panarin's success then just get rid of him.

 

[QJL]

Next year is not an issue. 23-24 is.

Projected hits:

Kreider (6.5) - Zib (8.5) - Othmann (.925)
Panarin (11.64) - Copp (5) - Kravtsov (1)
Lafreniere (5.5) - Chytil (3.5) - Kakko (2.5)
Motte (2) - Goodrow (3.64) - Blais (1.5)
Cuylle (.925)

Miller (5) - Fox (9.5)
Lindgren (3) - Trouba (8)
Jones (1) - Schneider (0.925)
Robertson (0.925)

Shesterkin (5.67)
Backup (1)

Total ~88.1m
The cap will likely be around ~84m

Something has to give. Kreider, Trouba, and Panarin will have NMCs through 2024.

I do think Goodrow eventually becomes a major candidate to be moved with his partial NMC.

I’m really not seeing a path to keeping all of Copp, Kakko, Chytil, Lindgren. It’s time to start thinking about the odd man out of that group. Maybe even 2 of them.

I unfortunately think letting Copp walk is the best decision.

 

[CLW]

oops

 

[mas0764]

Next year is not an issue. 23-24 is.

Projected hits:

Kreider (6.5) - Zib (8.5) - Othmann (.925)
Panarin (11.64) - Copp (5) - Kravtsov (1)
Lafreniere (5.5) - Chytil (3.5) - Kakko (2.5)
Motte (2) - Goodrow (3.64) - Blais (1.5)
Cuylle (.925)

Miller (5) - Fox (9.5)
Lindgren (3) - Trouba (8)
Jones (1) - Schneider (0.925)
Robertson (0.925)

Shesterkin (5.67)
Backup (1)

Total ~88.1m
The cap will likely be around ~84m

Something has to give. Kreider, Trouba, and Panarin will have NMCs through 2024.

I do think Goodrow eventually becomes a major candidate to be moved with his partial NMC.

I’m really not seeing a path to keeping all of Copp, Kakko, Chytil, Lindgren. It’s time to start thinking about the odd man out of that group. Maybe even 2 of them.

I unfortunately think letting Copp walk is the best decision.

You can’t justify keeping Trouba. You have too many cheap defenders in the pipe.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

If the concern is being able to re-sign Laff, Miller and Chytil after next season, load up line number one (may be flip Kreider and Panarin).

Don't re-sign Copp if that us the concern. I think Motte takes less than $2MM. Bring back Braun as 3rd pair or 7th D, May be $750K salary with $500K in not too hard to obtain bonus'.

I put the RFA /UFA extension amounts in.

Find a taker for Nemeth.

Kreider - Zib - Panarin
Laff - Chytil - Kakko ($2.5MM)
Blais ($1.5MM) - Goodrow - Kravstov ($1MM
Motte ($1.75MM) - Rooney (or comparable) ($900K) - Reaves
Hunt

Miller - Trouba
Lindgren - Fox
Braun/Jones - Schneider
Braun/Jones

Shesh
Vet backup

With rhe dead cap space that's a total cap hit of $78MM.

 

[Go Rangers]

Still think if they are looking to move Lundkvist for something of value, it is for a draft selection in return.

Arizona is the easiest landing spot for him. The Coyotes have 7 picks in the first two rounds of this draft. This includes picks 27, 32 (currently based on Avs), 34, 36, 43, and 45. On top of that, the Coyotes don't have tons of players either way. Their system is fairly weak. They could make all those selections and be fine, or they could accelerate that and move on of those picks from 27 through 36 to get a puck moving RHD that would not be blocked from playing in the NHL.

Of course they aren't under pressure to do much right now since they are working on their arena deal and basically know that the organization prior was a complete clusterf***. I just see them as the most likely candidate to make this move.

I'm just more hesitant on moving Nils now since the team is entering a new window to cup contending, and he could either be more valuable at the trade deadline for a needed piece, or as a player that they need as depth.

I would add Seattle to this possibility. They only have one draft under their belts and might want to beef up their farm system.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Look at the following season and consider what Laf, Kakko, and Chytil will be making.

I want Copp too. We probably can’t afford him.

The thought with Stastny is that he’s a similar player that might come cheaper with less term, which is unfortunately something we need to be considering.

We don't know what is going to happen 2-3 years from now. Maybe 1 of Trouba and Kreider may have to be traded, maybe the cap goes up significantly also. We just gave up a 1st and 2nd for Copp and he has been a good fit. We need to sign him and Motte.

 

[QJL]

You can’t justify keeping Trouba. You have too many cheap defenders in the pipe.

I’m not trying to. He has a full NMC through 2024. He’s not going anywhere until then.

 

[huerter]

How does the cap going up benefit us? It's all relative.

 

[mas0764]

I’m not trying to. He has a full NMC through 2024. He’s not going anywhere until then.

It’s not impossible to talk players into waiving.

 

[QJL]

It’s not impossible to talk players into waiving.

I’d say it is near impossible to talk players into leaving when they’re on a serious cup contender, in the city they want to live in, and they have a strong family driver to live in New York (Trouba’s MD wife). I just don’t see it with him.

 

[haohmaru]

I’d say it is near impossible to talk players into leaving when they’re on a serious cup contender, in the city they want to live in, and they have a strong family driver to live in New York (Trouba’s MD wife). I just don’t see it with him.

You might as well face the wall and just say it to yourself. The reality of it is lost on some, but the fact is there's no reason for him to do it and little reason for the Rangers to do it (particularly with his performance in the playoffs this year and, hopefully, Chytil 's step forward). Trouba has had his best combined season in the NHL. If the Rangers are looking to move this contract, it won't be for a couple of years.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Next year is not an issue. 23-24 is.

Projected hits:

Kreider (6.5) - Zib (8.5) - Othmann (.925)
Panarin (11.64) - Copp (5) - Kravtsov (1)
Lafreniere (5.5) - Chytil (3.5) - Kakko (2.5)
Motte (2) - Goodrow (3.64) - Blais (1.5)
Cuylle (.925)

Miller (5) - Fox (9.5)
Lindgren (3) - Trouba (8)
Jones (1) - Schneider (0.925)
Robertson (0.925)

Shesterkin (5.67)
Backup (1)

Total ~88.1m
The cap will likely be around ~84m

Something has to give. Kreider, Trouba, and Panarin will have NMCs through 2024.

I do think Goodrow eventually becomes a major candidate to be moved with his partial NMC.

I’m really not seeing a path to keeping all of Copp, Kakko, Chytil, Lindgren. It’s time to start thinking about the odd man out of that group. Maybe even 2 of them.

I unfortunately think letting Copp walk is the best decision.

Goodrow develops an equipment allergy in 2023-24. He's good as new with some hydrocortisone in time for the playoffs.

 

[mas0764]

You might as well face the wall and just say it to yourself. The reality of it is lost on some, but the fact is there's no reason for him to do it and little reason for the Rangers to do it (particularly with his performance in the playoffs this year and, hopefully, Chytil 's step forward). Trouba has had his best combined season in the NHL. If the Rangers are looking to move this contract, it won't be for a couple of years.

It’s neither lost on us nor is it reality. The reality is not everyone is affordable and we aren’t gonna lose one of our stud kids for Trouba. Someone is going to be strong armed into waiving or something else unconventional like Goodrow being moved out, and it will be sooner rather than later; if not this very offseason then likely the following.

Trouba has a huge target on him like it or not because of our defensive pipeline.

It was explained by a poster other than myself why there is way more than “little reason” to do it. The cap crunch is coming fast for us.

It might not be Trouba. But it might be.

 

[BBKers]

It will be much easier to waive NMC if we get cup. Win 6 more. Get Cup

 

[haohmaru]

It’s neither lost on us nor is it reality. The reality is not everyone is affordable and we aren’t gonna lose one of our stud kids for Trouba. Someone is going to be strong armed into waiving or something else unconventional like Goodrow being moved out, and it will be sooner rather than later; if not this very offseason then likely the following.

Trouba has a huge target on him like it or not because of our defensive pipeline.

It was explained by a poster other than myself why there is way more than “little reason” to do it. The cap crunch is coming fast for us.

It might not be Trouba. But it might be.

"Strong armed into waiving"? I don't think so. The reality is that the only guy that says whether Trouba is moved is Trouba and there's zero reason(s) for him to do so from the team success to his personal life. All of these fantasy cap scenarios don't change the fact that the Rangers made a solid commitment to Trouba and have no reason not live with it. There are alternatives to constructing this team that don't involve Trouba waiving and still meeting cap requirements.

I don't think it's Trouba next year and have said so all along. He's far from my favorite Ranger but I just don't see it until the partial NTC kicks in. We'll see.

 

[Fitzy]

The Oilers should consider a call about Georgiev

 

[mas0764]

"Strong armed into waiving"? I don't think so. The reality is that the only guy that says whether Trouba is moved is Trouba and there's zero reason(s) for him to do so from the team success to his personal life. All of these fantasy cap scenarios don't change the fact that the Rangers made a solid commitment to Trouba and have no reason not live with it. There are alternatives to constructing this team that don't involve Trouba waiving and still meeting cap requirements.

I don't think it's Trouba next year and have said so all along. He's far from my favorite Ranger but I just don't see it until the partial NTC kicks in. We'll see.

Yeah, I think we all understand how a NMC clause works and that the player has the final say, but as has been told to us by Edge and others and as we have seen happen before a player with a NMC can be talked in to waiving.

And it can happen here as well. Is it a guarantee? No, but again, it’s not impossible.

So we will keep discussing it’s possibility. Sorry.

From the Rangers end they absolutely have a reason to move on: the money is better spent elsewhere if not this very offseason then soon thereafter.

 

[IDvsEGO]

The Oilers should consider a call about Georgiev

The oilers will have a ton of options, and not sure they need to run to the head of the line to get to geo. He's likely going to be waived unless we get a nice offer for him and the knowledge that he's going to be waived will drive down any offer.

 

[Synergy27]

I still think, when considering all aspects of the decision, that if it comes down to “strong arming” someone into waiving, it should be Panarin.

Trouba is slightly overpaid, but I think this idea that he’s easily replaceable from within is flawed. Schneider could potentially fill that role, but it’s in no way guaranteed. The rest of the D prospects are puck movers and will never bring Trouba’s physicality, which is an incredibly important thing, especially in the playoffs.

Kreider brings intangibles to the table that Panarin does not. He’s homegrown. He’s a leader. He’s a matchup nightmare next to Mika. Oh yeah, he scored 52 goals this year.

Yes, Panarin scores at will. Especially on the PP. But I am far, far more confident in this organization’s ability to replace that scoring from within than I am then being able to replace what Kreider and Trouba bring to the table. And even if they score a few less goals without Bread, I’m not sure that the net difference will be negative because he’s likely being replaced by a more responsible two way player.

I also haven’t even mentioned the fact that Panarin has the second highest AAV in the NHL.

It would be really nice to just win the Cup this year and not even have to worry about this stuff. I’ll also hold out hope that they can figure out a way to get creative.

 

[mas0764]

I would entertain trying to move Panarin based on the return but there is no line of reasoning in which Trouba is more valuable. He’s not.

And he is also replaceable. He’s a second pair defender and Schneider has a very similar skill set, even if he’s not as good currently.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think people need to come to grips with the fact that after next season, Lindgren is likely going to become a cap casualty.

It sucks, but it simply just is what it is. We will not be the first team to be forced to trade away a good player (or two or three, I doubt the buck stops with him.) Chicago had to do this dance multiple times during their championship years.

Be happy that Miller looks more than ready to step into his spot if/when it happens.

I also don't doubt that we're going to pull some LTIR f***ery.

I would entertain trying to move Panarin based on the return but there is no line of reasoning in which Trouba is more valuable. He’s not.

And he is also replaceable. He’s a second pair defender and Schneider has a very similar skill set, even if he’s not as good currently.

The problem is that he likely won't be nearly as good next year either. Maybe eventually, but its going to take time.

Throwing young players into situations that they aren't ready for isn't a great recipe for success. I know it worked with K'Andre, but he's the exception to the rule

 

[archanfelnsx]

Goodrow develops an equipment allergy in 2023-24. He's good as new with some hydrocortisone in time for the playoffs.

I for one cannot stand teams that circumvent the cap on purpose. Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Vegas have done that in recent memory.

 

[Chytilmania]

Lindgren will be the odd man out. Jones is talented and Robertson is supposed to be that solid defenseman anyway. However, he is a guy we can easily LTIR then activate for the playoffs.