Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVII

[Mikos87]

Not disagreeing with the bulk of the post, but...

A 1st round pick + cap space to sign Panarin<<<<<<<a 1st round pick + cap space to sign a Panarin-esque player when the Rangers are actually ready to compete.

How often do these guys hit free agency? If the climb is 3 years away... then okay I get the stance... but the Rangers are going to have cap space this summer. They are going to be active in free agency. Are they going to be all in on just Panarin?

I don't think so. FLA will be, but I don't think the Rangers will go to $11M for the player.

I do expect the Rangers to sign an entire 4th line. Even overpay for that. Guys like Bellemare, Hathaway, Acciari. But I would expect the Rangers to make a splash.

 

[Tawnos]

Just because there is a somewhat perceived norm as to paying out players just for the heck of it, I don't buy it. "oh, that's what a second liner is worth now", no.

Also the economy of the league will be ****ed soon. There is only that much cap space overall, yet GM are dishing out massive contract left and right.

It is a lot, for Kreider. If we overpay every player by half a million or a million, we circumcise ourselves 1-2 players ...

The market dictates what players are worth, so if 2nd liners are getting $7m as UFAs, that's what they're worth as UFAs. This isn't sudden. $7m is going to be about 8% of the cap. That's what UFA 2nd liners have been getting for 15 years. That the dollar amount strikes your ears as a lot is more a perception problem on your end than a problem in reality.

You want a current list of 7.5-8.5% players who signed as UFAs?

Andrew Ladd
Marian Gaborik
TJ Oshie
Cam Atkinson
Iyla Kovalchuk
Alexander Steen
Nick Foligno
Dave Bolland
Kyle Turris
Paul Stastny
Loui Eriksson
David Backes
Milan Lucic
Kyle Okposo
Nathan Horton
Alex Radulov
Patrick Marleau
Brad Marchand

Aside from a couple of outliers who improved since they signed their deal (Brad Marchand, for example), this is the exact group of players Kreider belongs in.

 

[Fugazy]

Would you trade Kreider for Panarin + 8-15th pick?
If yes I don’t see why we don’t trade Kreider & sign Panarin

That would work for me put the Panarin signing can’t be viewed as a guarantee in that scenario.

 

[Mikos87]

The market dictates what players are worth, so if 2nd liners are getting $7m as UFAs, that's what they're worth as UFAs. This isn't sudden. $7m is going to be about 8% of the cap. That's what UFA 2nd liners have been getting for 15 years. That the dollar amount strikes your ears as a lot is more a perception problem on your end than a problem in reality.

You want a current list of 7.5-8.5% players who signed as UFAs?

Andrew Ladd
Marian Gaborik
TJ Oshie
Cam Atkinson
Iyla Kovalchuk
Alexander Steen
Nick Foligno
Dave Bolland
Kyle Turris
Paul Stastny
Loui Eriksson
David Backes
Milan Lucic
Kyle Okposo
Nathan Horton
Alex Radulov
Patrick Marleau
Brad Marchand

Aside from a couple of outliers who improved since they signed their deal (Brad Marchand, for example), this is the exact group of players Kreider belongs in.

How many of those are good contracts?
Does Kreider's production value match those that are good contracts?

I think Kreider get's a 6 year $5.825M Per.

From another team.

 

[Matt4776]

How often do these guys hit free agency? If the climb is 3 years away... then okay I get the stance... but the Rangers are going to have cap space this summer. They are going to be active in free agency. Are they going to be all in on just Panarin?

I don't think so. FLA will be, but I don't think the Rangers will go to $11M for the player.

I do expect the Rangers to sign an entire 4th line. Even overpay for that. Guys like Bellemare, Hathaway, Acciari. But I would expect the Rangers to make a splash.

Opportunities come like this all the time, despite the fact that people say they don't.

Hell, just last year it was "there will never be an opportunity for a player like Tavares to hit UFA again."

Until Panarin. Karlsson. Possibly Hall next year.

With the CBA killing cap circumventing deals, we're going to see a lot more of these guys hit UFA. And even if not UFA, we will always have the ability to trade late 1sts (when we're competing) for a chance to get the guy to put us over the top. Think Mark Stone.

 

[leetch99]

I fully expect Columbus to trade the rights to Panarin and Bob, possibly in a package, for a draft pick before free agency starts. Watch out for Florida.

If I was the Islanders I would be all over Panarin . Imagine Barzal feeding him ? He is a better fit for Isles then Rangers for right now IMO. Not sure on Isle cap situation . I hate the Isles....but sure do love them torturing the Pens so far .

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

How many of those are good contracts?
Does Kreider's production value match those that are good contracts?

I think Kreider get's a 6 year $5.825M Per.

From another team.

Under 6M for Kreider seems WILDLY cheap to me.

Personally, I’d be shocked if he gets less than 6.5M per at least.

But, you probably have a better indication of what’s what than I, so we’ll see what happens.

I do agree with “from another team”, though, for sure. Once we won one or two, I had a feeling Kreider’s days were numbered. I’d be pretty surprised if he’s on the team come camp.

 

[Tawnos]

How many of those are good contracts?
Does Kreider's production value match those that are good contracts?

I think Kreider get's a 6 year $5.825M Per.

From another team.

Well, it's more important in this conversation to remember who those players were when they signed the deal. However, a good 6 of the 18 should be removed from the quality conversation because they've been severely impacted by injuries. Of the other 12, I'd say 8 of them are decent or better.

 

[Mikos87]

Opportunities come like this all the time, despite the fact that people say they don't.

Hell, just last year it was "there will never be an opportunity for a player like Tavares to hit UFA again."

Until Panarin. Karlsson. Possibly Hall next year.

With the CBA killing cap circumventing deals, we're going to see a lot more of these guys hit UFA. And even if not UFA, we will always have the ability to trade late 1sts (when we're competing) for a chance to get the guy to put us over the top. Think Mark Stone.

You've got to back a few years.

Who were the top scoring UFA in 15,16, & 17?

We might be in a new era where a lot of better guys are hitting UFA. But in the cap era, that doesn't seem to be the trend.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Anyway we see it, Kreider is maybe the main glue, soul and culture guy of this club that is left, aside from Hank and maaaybe Staal.

Kreider at 6-6.5mil/year >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Panarin at 9.5 or whatever he'll get.

Kreider around 6 mil/year would be awesome.

 

[Off Sides]

I wonder how many good players may end up unprotected in expansion. Are those teams just going to let them be plucked or are they going to explore trades for them prior? Many teams have handed out clauses which will require them to protect some players.

If the Rangers are in position where they have a protection slot available which would just be used on someone not very important, and they have extra cap space and contract slots, it sure seems like they'd be in good position to make a trade or two.

 

[Mikos87]

Under 6M for Kreider seems WILDLY cheap to me.

Personally, I’d be shocked if he gets less than 6.5M per at least.

But, you probably have a better indication of what’s what than I, so we’ll see what happens.

I do agree with “from another team”, though, for sure. Once we won one or two, I had a feeling Kreider’s days were numbered. I’d be pretty surprised if he’s on the team come camp.

GMs are always going to give boneheaded contracts. But I think the 2016 UFA crop taught a major lesson to teams. I don't see that repeating itself. Are there players making $6M+ who are worse than Kreider. Absolutely. But I just don't see the market being enamored with the player where he's going to get a 7x$7.

Then again... it only takes one GM.

I agree with you, Kakko's going to occupy a front line winger spot. Kravstov can grab a top 6 slot.

I would add that guys like Fast, Vesey & Names, all UFAs next year can and should be moved as well. You will get less because of the cap constraints of a full season. But the Rangers can load up on a bunch of 2020 picks with those guys, and sign UFAs to fill roster slots.

Signing a 4th line & adding a top 6 player and 4A depth- that'll solve the Rangers needs of having the right forwards, but also giving kids the openings and insulation they need.

Well, it's more important in this conversation to remember who those players were when they signed the deal. However, a good 6 of the 18 should be removed from the quality conversation because they've been severely impacted by injuries. Of the other 12, I'd say 8 of them are decent or better.

Alex Radulov
Patrick Marleau
Brad Marchand
Cam Atkinson
Nick Foligno

I'd say 5. All of whom outproduce Kreider except maybe Foligno but he's had a 70 pt season. I do think Kreider will age better than the Okposo, Ladd, Eriksson and Backes of the world. But still.. I don't see a market for it.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Not disagreeing with the bulk of the post, but...

A 1st round pick + cap space to sign Panarin<<<<<<<a 1st round pick + cap space to sign a Panarin-esque player when the Rangers are actually ready to compete.

Who will that be exactly? Look at the UFA list after this offseason for the next 3 offseasons. It's Hall next offseason and then potentially Barkov, Gaudreau, and Forsberg in 22-23 which probably will not happen. Panarin-esque players do not reach UFA and then players 2 levels down end up becoming overpaid.

 

[Mikos87]

I wonder how many good players may end up unprotected in expansion. Are those teams just going to let them be plucked or are they going to explore trades for them prior? Many teams have handed out clauses which will require them to protect some players.

If the Rangers are in position where they have a protection slot available which would just be used on someone not very important, and they have extra cap space and contract slots, it sure seems like they'd be in good position to make a trade or two.

You only lose 1 player. The teams that gave up multiple assets to keep certain guys... they all regret it. Those were the teams that gave Vegas what they needed to contend on a platter.

So for the Seattle draft, I expect teams to avoid a lot of those deals. Just lose the 1.

Minn: Tuch & Haula
Fla: JAM & Smith
Clb: 1st & Karlsson
Ana: Theodore
NYI: 1st

Those 1st round picks were turned into MaxPac and Stone.

It's better to lose just the 1. Swallow one bitter pill instead of several.

 

[Tawnos]

Alex Radulov
Patrick Marleau
Brad Marchand
Cam Atkinson
Nick Foligno

I'd say 5. All of whom outproduce Kreider except maybe Foligno but he's had a 70 pt season. I do think Kreider will age better than the Okposo, Ladd, Eriksson and Backes of the world. But still.. I don't see a market for it.

Stastny, Oshie and Steen have been good on their contracts.

When Marchand signed his deal, he was coming off a 61 point season. Marleau was coming off a 46 point season. Atkinson was coming off a 62 point season. Foligno was in the midst of a 39 point season. Radulov coming off a 54 point season.

 

[Avery16]

I’d agree with the original poster. I’d be fine with Brassard for 1 year and Boyle for a couple. Callahan back to make the TB pick their 1st is totally fine with me as well.

Of course these would be predicated on Vesey, Kreider and possibly one of Namestnikov or Fast being traded.

I know you would.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

GMs are always going to give boneheaded contracts. But I think the 2016 UFA crop taught a major lesson to teams. I don't see that repeating itself. Are there players making $6M+ who are worse than Kreider. Absolutely. But I just don't see the market being enamored with the player where he's going to get a 7x$7.

Then again... it only takes one GM.

I agree with you, Kakko's going to occupy a front line winger spot. Kravstov can grab a top 6 slot.

I would add that guys like Fast, Vesey & Names, all UFAs next year can and should be moved as well. You will get less because of the cap constraints of a full season. But the Rangers can load up on a bunch of 2020 picks with those guys, and sign UFAs to fill roster slots.

Signing a 4th line & adding a top 6 player and 4A depth- that'll solve the Rangers needs of having the right forwards, but also giving kids the openings and insulation they need.

I agree with your overall points on Kreider’s contract, but then I look at Evander Kane’s contract and wonder how the hell Kreider gets less than that. None of the baggage, slightly more impactful player (IMO).

And yeah I’m hoping that Gorton clears out the clutter up front. Especially Vesey, I’m just beyond done seeing that guy in a Rangers jersey.

What do you think of Eberle? He has the Edmonton stink, but I think there’s potential for a steal of a contract there. He had a down year production wise (37 points), but he’s basically been a lock for 50+ every other year. Another plus is the right handed shot. I just wonder how he and Quinn would mesh. I think Quinn could help Eberle a lot, if Eberle is willing to listen.

Anyway, if we can sign Eberle to a short term deal in the 4-5M range, I think something like that offers a LOT of upside compared to the rest of the market.

If he ends up getting 4+ years offer, though, that’s when you just say no. I don’t see many teams willing to offer Eberle term like that, though.

 

[bobbop]

Not that this means a whole lot, but putting it out there in case some of you didn't know: Artemi Panarin Bought a South Florida Condo in April, Which Is Nothing if Not Timely and Interesting

South Beach is like an hour and a half drive to Sunrise.

 

[Winston2018]

I am starting to change my mind on Panarin since we are going to get Kakko. All of a sudden our wings are deeper.

Anyway his teammate Duchene had quite the night.

So should we be interested in a 1C!! 1 of 2 positons of weakness also 1RD?

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Whether or not Panarin is a target with the #2 pick, I'd still like to retool or change the bottom 6 for the Rangers.

Howden, Lemiuex, Strome, and Anderson I'm fine with. Hopefully Gettinger has a monster summer or Virta can grab a spot.

Boo can be a 12th-13th forward. That leaves Fast, Namestnikov, and Vesey. Fast I love but he breaks down often over an 82-game schedule. He truly is this generation's Jan Erixon (Erixon was pretty much good for 1-2 injuries a year from his third season in 1985-86 until his back went out in 1992-93 and he retired).

This is going to be a very young and bulky team if Kakko is the pick. If Gettiner can steal a spot on the 4th, wow Rangers will be an OLine.

Some vets on 1-2 year deals can help. I mentioned Simmonds. Grit. Guys who can bring energy and cycle. Guys who will help steer this team in the right direction. Stick up for one another. That stuff seems cheezy but it's not underrated. I want bottom 6ers who are monsters on the PK.

Vesey and Namestnokov are fine, but there 28-30 goals of production can be replaced in other areas. I'm fine with trading both for like 3rd rounders and using those as "hope" picks on NCAA projects or some scrawny kid in a B-level Euro league who drools skill.

Feds, Prospal, Richards, Rupp all really helped the last group who was young and energetic. This version is going to be even younger but have much more skill.

Also remember, after next season, Morgan Baron has a pretty good shot of joining the org. Do not underestimate that.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

You've got to back a few years.

Who were the top scoring UFA in 15,16, & 17?

We might be in a new era where a lot of better guys are hitting UFA. But in the cap era, that doesn't seem to be the trend.

But it's not just looking at FA's. It's really important to look at trades as well. Because once we're ready to compete, we should be able to move our firsts and some prospects if players become available. If you are thin for cap-space, you lose a lot of that flexibility. Top players become available quite often when looking at these scenarios. This isn't a miss Panarin and that's it.

Just this year, Stone was moved. Hall and Subban were moved a few years ago. EK. Skinner. ROR. Yandle. St. Louis. Tavares as a UFA. Panarin. EK again.

Every year or two a big name hits the market,whether it's via UFA or FA. Acting like this is the one chance we'll have to sign a guy like this in the next few years is ridiculous. Not only will we be able to do so, but should one become available on the trade market, we will have one of the deepest asset pools to offer up.

Handcuffing ourselves by giving out a long-term, high $ contract to a winger in his late 20's is just a bad idea for a team that is still a few years away from competing and doesn't quite know what positions they will need to fill.

 

[howztheglass]

Crazy thought if Breadman goes to Fla why not try to strengthen our other weakest—1A Center.

What about Duchene ? Him and Zbad one two seems really nice. He’s only 1 year older then Breadman.

 

[Winston2018]

But it's not just looking at FA's. It's really important to look at trades as well. Because once we're ready to compete, we should be able to move our firsts and some prospects if players become available. If you are thin for cap-space, you lose a lot of that flexibility. Top players become available quite often when looking at these scenarios. This isn't a miss Panarin and that's it.

Just this year, Stone was moved. Hall and Subban were moved a few years ago. EK. Skinner. ROR. Yandle. St. Louis. Tavares as a UFA. Panarin. EK again.

Every year or two a big name hits the market,whether it's via UFA or FA. Acting like this is the one chance we'll have to sign a guy like this in the next few years is ridiculous. Not only will we be able to do so, but should one become available on the trade market, we will have one of the deepest asset pools to offer up.

Handcuffing ourselves by giving out a long-term, high $ contract to a winger in his late 20's is just a bad idea for a team that is still a few years away from competing and doesn't quite know what positions they will need to fill.

Easy with the Firsts. Are the Jets getting there moneys worth from Hayes? or Nash last year? Even when we are on the cusp of a conference finals and that can't miss player who is the missing piece comes along REFUSE ALL 1STS!

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Crazy thought if Breadman goes to Fla why not try to strengthen our other weakest—1A Center.

What about Duchene ? Him and Zbad one two seems really nice. He’s only 1 year older then Breadman.

GIGANTIC pass on Duchene.

 

[Winston2018]

Whether or not Panarin is a target with the #2 pick, I'd still like to retool or change the bottom 6 for the Rangers.

Howden, Lemiuex, Strome, and Anderson I'm fine with. Hopefully Gettinger has a monster summer or Virta can grab a spot.

Boo can be a 12th-13th forward. That leaves Fast, Namestnikov, and Vesey. Fast I love but he breaks down often over an 82-game schedule. He truly is this generation's Jan Erixon (Erixon was pretty much good for 1-2 injuries a year from his third season in 1985-86 until his back went out in 1992-93 and he retired).

This is going to be a very young and bulky team if Kakko is the pick. If Gettiner can steal a spot on the 4th, wow Rangers will be an OLine.

Some vets on 1-2 year deals can help. I mentioned Simmonds. Grit. Guys who can bring energy and cycle. Guys who will help steer this team in the right direction. Stick up for one another. That stuff seems cheezy but it's not underrated. I want bottom 6ers who are monsters on the PK.

Vesey and Namestnokov are fine, but there 28-30 goals of production can be replaced in other areas. I'm fine with trading both for like 3rd rounders and using those as "hope" picks on NCAA projects or some scrawny kid in a B-level Euro league who drools skill.

Feds, Prospal, Richards, Rupp all really helped the last group who was young and energetic. This version is going to be even younger but have much more skill.

Also remember, after next season, Morgan Baron has a pretty good shot of joining the org. Do not underestimate that.

Watching how Tampa is handling size and the trap its makes me lean towards size and speed