Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVII

[eco's bones]

Hitting the floor is not a problem. Eat some salary for a pick or extend a guy long term instead of a bridge (so instead of 2 years at $3 and 4 years at $6 once he's UFA, you sign him to 6 years at $5 or even $4.5, which helps you when the team gets better and has more cap problems).

After you've traded Kreider, Names, Strome, Fast and Vesey and then a year later Henrik, Shattenkirk, Staal and Smith's contracts expire---that's $40+ mil in cap space right there. We have two contracts right now that extend to the 21-22 season--Mika and Skjei and together they amount to around $11 mil. If the floor is $60-65 for that season that means we have two years + to have that in place. We're not going to get there with just first and second contracts.

 

[Off Sides]

Outcomes for next season if they do not add any expensive UFAs

They improve and most see that as a good thing. Still not a contender.

They do not improve and end up with a pretty early pick again and most see that as good thing.


Outcomes if they do add expensive UFAs

See the above just with a lesser chance of the earlier pick


Outcomes beyond that

The UFAs they did sign eventually help make them a contender.

The UFAs the did sign decline or perform poorly and cause them to have a more difficult time contending and maybe even cause some cap casualties.


Why not wait and see what happens with the non expensive UFA thing first, then if they need to fill some holes, go sign them, or make a trade for something like that?

The answer is always they will not be there, which is always answered by no one knows who, or who will not be available, just as a couple years ago no one knew Panarin would be, or at the time, before they became available, no one knew Jagr, Nash, Richards, Gaborik would become available. Or that the Rangers would pick #2.

Things have to play out a little bit. Making lesser risk choices with insufficient information is difficult enough, making much larger choices and then having buyers remorse when one could have waited for more complete information seems like it could be torturous.

 

[Beacon]

After you've traded Kreider, Names, Strome, Fast and Vesey and then a year later Henrik, Shattenkirk, Staal and Smith's contracts expire---that's $40+ mil in cap space right there. We have two contracts right now that extend to the 21-22 season--Mika and Skjei and together they amount to around $11 mil. If the floor is $60-65 for that season that means we have two years + to have that in place. We're not going to get there with just first and second contracts.

There are 1 year FAs, we can acquire someone overpriced for a pick they send us. But I think merely giving out long term contracts instead of bridges gets us to the floor with the added bonus of being able to save on the guys' UFA years.

 

[eco's bones]

Sure I do. Do I think players still below legal drinking age will improve enough to off-set the losses of Zuccarello and Hayes (for sure), possibly Kreider, and another year of aging for Staal, Shattenkirk, Hank.etc? I don't.

EDIT: And to be clear, my post wasn't directed at your entire post. Though I disagree with you, I wasn't questioning your belief that the team will be better. Just questioning your reasoning that because Quinn said "we're looking to improve our defense so we wont lose one goal games" that means we're not a team that "wants to stink up to the joint."

No team goes into the year looking to "stink up the joint."

After Zucc and Hayes left there was a discernible difference. Still that's when Buch and Strome really picked up their offense. The Rangers still won more than people thought they would and the team's offense didn't exactly dry up and those they didn't win they for the most part were able to keep close. But anyway those trades turned into opportunities for others. I don't expect Chytil to be a 25 point player next year--he's capable of 40 to 45--he's had leaps before. I don't expect Howden to go through a 3 and a half month scoring slump again either. These guys--even if they're not 'drinking age' aren't babies anymore. Expectations are going to be higher.

I'd also point out that whatever one thinks of the 'letter'--what it means over a year on is open to interpretation. Actually it always was open to interpretation. At the conclusion of the coming draft we will have added at least 8 1st's (if you're including Howden) in the last 3 years + some significant others--so no one is denying that the Rangers are on a course of improvement by adding prospects and through player development. That said--that doesn't mean they don't have their eyes on getting back to the playoffs soon. One course of action doesn't negate the other in this case. The coach knows his players now--he said at season's end (and more than once) that not making the playoffs is not acceptable. There is a degree of counter intuitiveness between the larger mass of Rangers fans and the Rangers organization-- for example--while the one is praying for the team to tank as a goal to get higher draft position the other is actually winning--sometimes stealing games they shouldn't and right up to the very last game of the year. It's not going to be different next year. Quinn is going to push them--he's going to expect players to step up their games and that includes kids like Chytil and Howden and we're adding either Kakko or Hughes to the mix too.

Whether we make the playoffs or not I expect we'll be in it longer and it will be a more fun team to watch.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Alright, here goes - playoff team:

1. Trade Krieds and Shatty (2 mil retained) and our 2nd for Trouba

2. Trade Smith to OTT with 1.35 retained for a 6th

3. Trade Vesey + to CAR for Fox

4. Sign Panarin

Panarin Ziba Kakko
Lias Chytil Buch
Lemmy Howton Krav (Strome if Krav needs HFD)
Names (Strome/Nieves/Nate Thompson) Fast

Skjei Trouba
Hajek TDA
Staal Fox/Pionk/Claesson

Hank w Georgie/Shesty taking turns shuttling

Leaves us with about 4.5-5.25 in cap space

 

[True Blue]

Getting 2OA and presumably Kakko has changed my thinking on Kreiders longevity here. IMO we’ll need either one of him or Panarin to move in the right direction, would rather a more elite player like Panarin. Use Kriders value to help at D, like a Trouba or someone along those lines.

A long term contract with NTC/NMC and you are willing to waste two of his prime years?

 

[True Blue]

....and anyway the Rangers I think are planning on their team being better next year. They are going to expect more out of Chytil and Howden for instance. More out of DeAngelo and Buchnevich and if Henrik can't hold it together Georgiev is going to play more and then there is Shestyorkin. In his exit interview Quinn says a lot about fixing the defense so as to not to lose so many one goal games (what kind of talk is that for a team that wants to stink up the joint?) and I suspect strongly that that is going to be a focus too. I don't expect we're going to lose as many of them either. A lot of these guys aren't going to be wide eyed rookies anymore or young players trying to prove they belong and Quinn will not be a rookie coach next year looking at players he hasn't seen or coached before. He has a better idea of their capabilities and how they fit within the structure he wants to build and the expectations for them are going to be higher and there's not nearly going to be much of the feeling out process anymore.

So maybe we don't make the playoffs next year anyhow but I don't expect our season is going to be toast by mid-February.

A full year without Hayes or Zucc and another year of depreciation on Staal, Smith, Shattenkirk (half the defense) and you expect them to be better? Sure Chytil and Howden should take steps forward, but by how much?

Sorry, add Panarin to this team, and they still compete for bottom 5.

 

[NYR Viper]

Jimmy Vesey is the guy Gorton should attempt to move out. Give him an opportunity elsewhere to earn his next UFA contract. There will be teams interested in trying to get that next step out of him. 1 year at a reasonable contract and he has been pretty consistently just under 20 goals which for some teams would be a big improvement.

Vlad Namestnikov or Jesper Fast should also be traded. Both are pending UFA's at the end of next season. Keep one or the other. Redundant.

Chris Kreider should be traded this off-season. The tea and the young players don't need another deadline where they are all constantly asked questions about big name players.

LW's:
Kaako
Andersson
Lemieux
______/Namestnikov

RW's:
Buchnevich
Strome
______/Namestnikov


C's:
Zibanejad
Howden
Chytil
Nieves

I'd sign Brian Boyle to a 1 year deal for $3.5m
I'd sign Pierre-Edouard Bellemare to a 1 year deal for $2m


Kevin Shattenkirk is the guy to cut ties with. He was coming on, points-wide, towards the end of the season. A team like Edmonton, if they could off-load some cap, would probably see him as an upgrade. Gagner + Manning would come close to the same cap hit next year.

I've mentioned the idea of a Brendan Smith for Zack Smith + Mike Condon in the past with Ottawa. Zack Smith would be a nice addition to the bottom-6 of this team and remove some of the roadblocks on the back-end. If the Rangers add Smith, they wouldn't need to look into someone like Boyle.

Assuming these happen:

LD:
Staal
Skjei
Hajek/Lindgren/Rykov
Claesson as #7

RD:
ADA
Pionk
Hajek/Rykov/Fox(?)

 

[True Blue]

Do you expect young players not to improve?

Not enough to replace production of Hayes and Zucc.

 

[GAGLine]

I can't wait until Panarin signs in Florida.

 

[True Blue]

I can’t help but think there’s a deal with Winnipeg for Trouba. I would do Kreider and Shatty (with +/- 1.6 retention) plus a pick/prospect. They need RD, Shatty can play better on a better team and serves as a bridge to their prospects. They could also use a good F since they have 4 UFAs coming to term and only Vesalainen coming up. Kreider could beef up their 2nd line.

Kreider Little Ehlers/Wheeler

RD Big Buff / Shatty / Morrow

You think that bringing a defenseman who has had issues staying on the ice, signing him to a long term deal with NTC/NMC and asking him to be something he has not been (#1 defenseman) is a good idea?

Also, Shattenkirk is not a 2nd pairing defenseman. Think the league has caught on.

Lastly, if Krieder is traded, I believe it will be to make a move at draft or obtain more picks in 2020 draft.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

A long term contract with NTC/NMC and you are willing to waste two of his prime years?

Yes I am

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

You think that bringing a defenseman who has had issues staying on the ice, signing him to a long term deal with NTC/NMC and asking him to be something he has not been (#1 defenseman) is a good idea?

Also, Shattenkirk is not a 2nd pairing defenseman. Think the league has caught on.

Lastly, if Krieder is traded, I believe it will be to make a move at draft or obtain more picks in 2020 draft.

I think it’s all a good idea

 

[True Blue]

Yes I am

You understand that is literally what is referred to when people discuss law of diminishing returns?

 

[True Blue]

I think it’s all a good idea

Well then. ok. Case closed. Perfectly thought out debate point.

 

[Irishguy42]

~2.5 more months until the shitting on Panarin moves from here to the Around the NHL thread or his player discussion thread.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

You understand that is literally what is referred to when people discuss law of diminishing returns?

The law of diminishing return indicates that all other factors have to be constant, you don’t know what you’re taking about and I find you a bit odd for constantly trying to get folks to justify a position to you, it’s an opinion take it or leave it. You don’t agree, fine that’s great.

 

[Off Sides]

After you've traded Kreider, Names, Strome, Fast and Vesey and then a year later Henrik, Shattenkirk, Staal and Smith's contracts expire---that's $40+ mil in cap space right there. We have two contracts right now that extend to the 21-22 season--Mika and Skjei and together they amount to around $11 mil. If the floor is $60-65 for that season that means we have two years + to have that in place. We're not going to get there with just first and second contracts.

What about Buch, ADA, Lemieux

If they bridge them, their bridges will likely end that off-season and they'll need more expensive contracts

If they go long term now, they'll be on more expensive contracts

Georgiev's entry level ends next off-season, he too will either be on a bridge or long term.

And it's not just a few entry level which end in 2021

Chytil
Lias
Howden
Hajek
Lindgren

And assuming they sign
Shesterkin
Rykov
(shorter entry level as they sign at a later age)

That is 11 contracts which all either get more expensive or end up replaced with players who likely have a higher than entry level cap hit.

Zbad, Skjei on top.

That is only 13 of 23

Then all those who will still be on the entry levels which will add up to something.

That all likely gets them to the floor. And even if not, they can sign some players that off-season.

And beyond that and only a season or two later is where maybe even the best prospects end their entry levels, the 2018, 2019 draftees.

I believe stuff is also going to happen with the expansion draft, if a good higher cap hit player happens to shake loose, Rangers if they have cap space and contract slot(s), and an open protection slot they do not really need to use would be in good position there. They may even have leverage to get that a little cheaper than the market otherwise would dictate.

The CBA may end too either right before or right after that off-season, and it may have different rules, maybe that too causes player movement?

I think part of the build is going to be taking advantage of stuff when it happens, and I think when the Rangers talk about flexibility they are talking partly about being in position to try to do so.

And say none of that works, they can go right back to signing expensive UFAs, or trading quantity for quality players, there is always going to be some teams looking for what the Rangers did draft who made it, some teams in a tough position who need to do something. Players out there who end up as UFAs. If being competitive means making the playoffs, about half the teams do so, and there are always some really bad teams. I think their previous methods of building would give them a pretty good chance there once placed on top of some of the keepers which come out of this rebuild.

I mean I'm hoping for far more than that to come out of it, but as a fall back, lots of things went wrong position, it's still going to be there.

 

[True Blue]

The law of diminishing return indicates that all other factors have to be constant, you don’t know what you’re taking about and I find you a bit odd for constantly trying to get folks to justify a position to you, it’s an opinion take it or leave it. You don’t agree, fine that’s great.

Again. Such a very well thought out response. Thank you for sharing.

Usually when one takes a position, one should be able to support it. That is not justification. That is the ability to debate a well thought out idea. When faced with the inability to do such a thing........

 

[Fugazy]

I can't wait until Panarin signs in Florida.

Very likely. Would make a lot of sense for many reasons.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Again. Such a very well thought out response. Thank you for sharing.

Usually when one takes a position, one should be able to support it. That is not justification. That is the ability to debate a well thought out idea. When faced with the inability to do such a thing........

That assumes you’re worth people’s time, I can assure you otherwise

 

[Rongomania]

Namestnikov. Staal. Skjei. Lem has been on a winning team already in his short career, he knows. Hank. This team has vets who’ve accomplished so much and have really been around. Couple that in with Gorts young leadership targets (Lias & Howden). And to me we’re already out of EDM/ARI territory, we’ve got the leadership to usher in the new core and teach them. Also, we’ve a fantastic coach.

Sad to say, but after thinking about all of this, trade CK and do the best you can. I’m sure teams will be salivating at the fact that they can get him at the draft for basically nothing that would effect their current team(s) structure.

 

[NYR Viper]

I'm listening to the last Bleeding Blueshirts podcast and I heard something interesting about Howden. He mentioned that both he and his brother (Quentin), have the track record a bit that they don't spend as much time in the gym in the off-season as needed. Dave Maloney mentioned that the Rangers are hoping tat after his first year in the NHL, he realizes he needs to spend a significant amount of time getting stronger in order to be effective.

This is both a good and a bad thing. If Brett has't truly dedicated himself physically to getting stronger and he has made it this far, only to realize that if he puts in the effort he will be much better that's a coup. if he continue to not dedicate himself off the ice however that's not good.

 

[Edge]

I'm listening to the last Bleeding Blueshirts podcast and I heard something interesting about Howden. He mentioned that both he and his brother (Quentin), have the track record a bit that they don't spend as much time in the gym in the off-season as needed. Dave Maloney mentioned that the Rangers are hoping tat after his first year in the NHL, he realizes he needs to spend a significant amount of time getting stronger in order to be effective.

This is both a good and a bad thing. If Brett has't truly dedicated himself physically to getting stronger and he has made it this far, only to realize that if he puts in the effort he will be much better that's a coup. if he continue to not dedicate himself off the ice however that's not good.

I'm not terribly concerned. Howden's never struck me as lazy.

Frankly, a lot of our young players need to get stronger.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I'm listening to the last Bleeding Blueshirts podcast and I heard something interesting about Howden. He mentioned that both he and his brother (Quentin), have the track record a bit that they don't spend as much time in the gym in the off-season as needed. Dave Maloney mentioned that the Rangers are hoping tat after his first year in the NHL, he realizes he needs to spend a significant amount of time getting stronger in order to be effective.

This is both a good and a bad thing. If Brett has't truly dedicated himself physically to getting stronger and he has made it this far, only to realize that if he puts in the effort he will be much better that's a coup. if he continue to not dedicate himself off the ice however that's not good.

Interesting, seemed like he hit a rookie wall. Hope he pulls a Hayes and figures out what he needs to do..