Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXVI

[Alluckks]

Would make sense that the Rangers will look to use the Goodrow contract a blueprint for a Copp contract, just with more money.

Goodrow was 6 years, 21.85 total -- 3.642 per season
15 team NTC for all 6 years
1.25 in year 6

How much is Copp worth per season with that structure?
Use the assumption that the cap starts increasing by larger amounts again by the 25-26 years (2 more seasons away).

 

[duhmetreE]

 

[jerseyjinx94]

Kreider did not take a below market deal.

Yes he did. Anders Lee got 7x$7M and was his biggest comparable. Kreider took a discount.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Only a fool would want to play the Rangers.

 

[bobbop]

No, they listen to some podcast, watch the highlights on NHL Network, or (God forbid) read the main boards and form their opinion that way.

I don't know what to say if you honestly believe people are watching enough hockey to form valid opinions on more than one team. I'm sure there are some people with no jobs and no hobbies putting in 12 hours per day but that's not most opinions.

Most opinions are formed on hearsay. I prefer the graphs.

I live in the west so by the time most Rangers games are over, I can look in on any number of games. Helps a lot, especially when a certain player or players are in the rumor mill.

 

[bobbop]

So the cap is going up 1M this season, just a little boost the league is giving, probably to just let teams operate for next year since a lot of teams had issues this year.



So, we've got 22-23 at 82.5. 23-24 could be 83.5 if they give another small boost. HRR is going to be significantly higher the next few years. Hopefully the economy can recover from where it is currently and we'll see that big boost. The new deals they just signed have to be accounted for right? I think we could see the cap go from 83.5M to near 100M for 24-25.

This post was before the shutdowns in Canada in late December and January. It may still not be operative.

 

[Machinehead]

I live in the west so by the time most Rangers games are over, I can look in on any number of games. Helps a lot, especially when a certain player or players are in the rumor mill.

Right, people can do that, but it's not enough.

Three seasons is probably a decent sample to rely primarily on what you've seen. You need to see large samples within a season as well as year over year consistency. There are lots of guys on the Rangers right now I haven't seen play, say, 150 times.

If you watched Adam Fox 10, 15, even 20 times, there's a chance you would never come away impressed. He's an understated player. That's why Rangers fans basically had to bully the hockey world (armed with analytics) into acknowledging that he exists. People saw him in several games, those games all blended together, and they said "well I don't remember anything particular that he did."

That's mostly what the eye test is. Nobody is intensively scouting players. And if you are:

1) You're lying

2) If you're not lying and that player isn't at least on your own team, go outside.

3) It's probably still not enough. NHL front offices scout intensively and we don't need to go through the litany of brainmelt moves teams have made that even fans knew were dumb the minute they happened.

 

[Irishguy42]

This post was before the shutdowns in Canada in late December and January. It may still not be operative.

FWIW, the projection is now pushed back a season from what CJ said.

 

[duhmetreE]

Right, people can do that, but it's not enough.

Three seasons is probably a decent sample to rely primarily on what you've seen. You need to see large samples within a season as well as year over year consistency. There are lots of guys on the Rangers right now I haven't seen play, say, 150 times.

If you watched Adam Fox 10, 15, even 20 times, there's a chance you would never come away impressed. He's an understated player. That's why Rangers fans basically had to bully the hockey world (armed with analytics) into acknowledging that he exists. People saw him in several games, those games all blended together, and they said "well I don't remember anything particular that he did."

That's mostly what the eye test is. Nobody is intensively scouting players. And if you are:

1) You're lying

2) If you're not lying and that player isn't at least on your own team, go outside.

3) It's probably still not enough. NHL front offices scout intensively and we don't need to go through the litany of brainmelt moves teams have made that even fans knew were dumb the minute they happened.

Bruh. It's hockey. If you watch one team, once a week, you have a good understanding.

If you watched Adam Fox the past 2 months you wouldn't be impressed. He was a flawless terminator mistake-free cyborg prior to that.

You don't watch games though, you listen to radio. I could see how 'scouting' a team over radio might be hard.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Yes he did. Anders Lee got 7x$7M and was his biggest comparable. Kreider took a discount.

Anders Lee does more better outside this season. Not by a lot but probably the high end of what he would've gotten.

 

[SA16]

why can I not delete this posting the same thing twice?

 

[SA16]

Yes he did. Anders Lee got 7x$7M and was his biggest comparable. Kreider took a discount.

Kreider got a NMC and a full NTC for 4 years. Lee did not.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

Kreider got a NMC and a full NTC for 4 years. Lee did not.

Did he take less than he would have gotten on the open market if he walked to UFA? Yeah, definitely. That’s a discount, whether it’s below what he was actually worth is a different issue related to UFA being overpaid, generally.

Also, Lee has a full no trade from 2019-2023 and a 15 team no trade from 24-25.

Edit: per capfriendly, the NTC is through 23-24, and the modified NTC is through 24-25 and 25-26. So he actually got 5 years of full no trade protection to Kreider’s 4.

 

[SA16]

Did he take less than he would have gotten on the open market if he walked to UFA? Yeah, definitely. That’s a discount, whether it’s below what he was actually worth is a different issue related to UFA being overpaid, generally.

Also, Lee has a full no trade from 2019-2023 and a 15 team no trade from 24-25.

Edit: per capfriendly, the NTC is through 23-24, and the modified NTC is through 24-25 and 25-26. So he actually got 5 years of full no trade protection to Kreider’s 4.

You do seem correct. The way capfriendly wrote that note is a bit misleading

 

[RangerBoy]

“For sure [it helps]. If you play every game with one partner you can understand each other better,” Panarin said. “And especially with Copp, You can see his level, he reads the game very well and I think we have good chemistry now. We’re really happy to have him on our line.

“He can do everything. He has skill. He can play in the D-zone. He can pass…which I like it.”

Artemi Panarin’s playoff heartbreak would make leading a Rangers run special

Panarin should get a pretty good indication of what the playoffs will be like for him when he and the Blueshirts face the Islanders at UBS Arena on Thursday.

nypost.com

The RW is the defensive presence with Panarin-Strome. Fast and Blackwell. Copp will be the defensive presence at center. Put a quality RW on that line. In Chicago, Anisimov was Copp. Panarin and Kane did their thing. Kravtsov can fill that role. I read Panerin helped Buchnevich. He took him under his wing. Kakko? Someone will get a prime opportunity to produce.

 

[Machinehead]

Bruh. It's hockey. If you watch one team, once a week, you have a good understanding.

If you watched Adam Fox the past 2 months you wouldn't be impressed. He was a flawless terminator mistake-free cyborg prior to that.

You don't watch games though, you listen to radio. I could see how 'scouting' a team over radio might be hard.

Wrong. Nothing else to say.

I admit I don't know what the f*** I'm looking at and often don't make an effort. That's the only difference.

 

[haohmaru]

Wrong. Nothing else to say.

I admit I don't know what the f*** I'm looking at and often don't make an effort. That's the only difference.

I agree with some of what you say but if you DO know what you're looking at it it's a lot easier to understand it. It's hard to explain.

 

[Doctyl]

Bruh. It's hockey. If you watch one team, once a week, you have a good understanding.

If you watched Adam Fox the past 2 months you wouldn't be impressed. He was a flawless terminator mistake-free cyborg prior to that.

You don't watch games though, you listen to radio. I could see how 'scouting' a team over radio might be hard.

Wow what an awful take. You’re really digging that grave for the eye test

 

[Doctyl]

I agree with some of what you say but if you DO know what you're looking at it it's a lot easier to understand it. It's hard to explain.

You can’t watch a game here and a game there and claim to know every player in the league off watching them lmfao. Teams employ scouts as a full time job. Your opinions would be absolute trash if you just casually watched a guy play once in a while

 

[Machinehead]

I agree with some of what you say but if you DO know what you're looking at it it's a lot easier to understand it. It's hard to explain.

Yes, I'm not arguing that viewings are not at all useful.

I'm saying that most of the time, when I people say their opinion is based on viewings (especially on the main boards) it's actually based on counting stats, reputation, and/or random things they remember from viewings.

 

[duhmetreE]

Wow what an awful take. You’re really digging that grave for the eye test

Right. Is this some competition of worthiness between eye test and analytics? Weird.

If you can't watch a team and understand their style, I do not know what to tell you. It's a basic understanding. I honestly have no clue what your argument is.

 

[duhmetreE]

Wrong. Nothing else to say.

I admit I don't know what the f*** I'm looking at and often don't make an effort. That's the only difference.

Which is fine. Don't project your thoughts onto others.

If you don't understand something it doesnt mean everyone else doesn't understand something.

 

[Machinehead]

Which is fine. Don't project your thoughts onto others.

If you don't understand something it doesnt mean everyone else doesn't understand something.

Pro scouts get things wrong after watching thousands of games but duhmetreE understands.

 

[duhmetreE]

Pro scouts get things wrong after watching thousands of games but duhmetreE understands.

Right. So, if you're not 100% accurate, you do not understand. So, analytics are a waste of time. Great logic.

You continue to creative a false narrative. Nothing is perfect.

 

[Machinehead]

Right. So, if you're not 100% accurate, you do not understand. So, analytics are a waste of time. Great logic.

That's your logic. You literally just said that you can analyze a player watching them once a week.