Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVI

[haohmaru]

No draft EVER had 9 of the top 10 draftees become good NHLers. Not 8, not 7, not 6. After the top 1-3 players (depending on the draft), the odds for the rest are MUCH worse than 50-50 to become difference-makers on a team. You draft guys at #7 because a 25% chance of a first liner is a hell of a lot better than no chance at all. Now go back and re-read the part about how not everything is either 100% or 0%.

2003:

1-10

Fluery
E. Staal
Horton
Zherdev
Vanek
Michalek
Suter
Coburn
Phaneuf
Kostitisyn

11+
Carter
Brown
Seabrook
Parise
Getzlaf
Burns
Stuart
Kesler
Richards
Boyle
Perry
Eaves

All in the first round. And a few more in the first that played 200+ NHL games.

And we, somehow, picked Jessiman.

I agree with most of your points and that 2003 was an aberration - but to say it's never happened isn't accurate.

 

[JT Kreider]

I hope those goals Nylander scored in 2006 was worth losing to LA in 2014. Who needs Cups in the future when we can get swept in the first round of the playoffs today.

We lost to LA in 2014 because of the Jessiman pick. If we had gotten our elite franchise forward in that draft such as Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Richards or Bergeron things play out a whole lot different.

That series win over Atlanta (in 2007 btw) had nothing to do with it except laying the ground work for what was to come with guys like Girardi and Callahan establishing themselves.

 

[eco's bones]

That is a lot of cap coming off the books, but consider the raises you have to pay Chytil Andersson Howden DeAngelo Buchnevich Kravstov Kakko. That’s going to cost us a considerable amount of money.

Edit: add in Hajek maybe Fox if we get him. Shesty Georgie Lemieux.

Not sure you got my point. Young players don't usually get big contracts and it's a dangerous precedent to give younger players way higher contracts than they deserve. After the next two years Andersson, Howden and Chytil will all be moving into their second contracts. Which one of those players do you think you'll be giving $5 mil (or more) per year contracts to? Based off of 2018-19 it's very likely none of them will get that--maybe not even near that on their second contracts. Kravtsov and Kakko will be still on ELC's the cap hit limit of which is currently $925K. Buchnevich and DeAngelo if they continue to progress might be $5 mil or more.

Lemieux, DeAngelo, Buchnevich and Pionk are RFA's this summer. Buchnevich is a $3.5-4 mil. Lemieux somewhere between $1.5 and 2. DeAngelo and Pionk probably somewhere around $2.5 each.

In any case we're going to have to reach the floor for the 21-22 season. We can take on some team's toxic contracts I suppose and burn them out for them.

 

[TheTakedown]

As an outside voice, there is no reason for Ottawa to do this. We in fact need Ryan's salary to reach the floor. Probably going to be a good teacher for the young guys coming up as well.

Smith has no value anyways... We're better off burying him in the minors.. There's no Salary to AAV savings either for Ottawa here

 

[Matt4776]

Not sure you got my point. Young players don't usually get big contracts and it's a dangerous precedent to give younger players way higher contracts than they deserve. After the next two years Andersson, Howden and Chytil will all be moving into their second contracts. Which one of those players do you think you'll be giving $5 mil (or more) per year contracts to? Based off of 2018-19 it's very likely none of them will get that--maybe not even near that on their second contracts. Kravtsov and Kakko will be still on ELC's the cap hit limit of which is currently $925K. Buchnevich and DeAngelo if they continue to progress might be $5 mil or more.

Lemieux, DeAngelo, Buchnevich and Pionk are RFA's this summer. Buchnevich is a $3.5-4 mil. Lemieux somewhere between $1.5 and 2. DeAngelo and Pionk probably somewhere around $2.5 each.

In any case we're going to have to reach the floor for the 21-22 season. We can take on some team's toxic contracts I suppose and burn them out for them.

My soul would die if Pionk gets $2.5M.

 

[Edge]

I think there are a lot of people that have a much better idea than either of us if he's ready. I'm not "hoping that he is ready" at all. If he's not, he's not. We'll see.

It’s funny, since last night I haven’t given a single thought as to whether Kakko or Hughes could or would play in the NHL next season.

While I think Kakko most likely could, I can’t say it matters much to me.

I’m all about the end game. If that means next year doesn’t have that curiosity factor or glimmer of what could someday be, I’m perfectly alright with that.

 

[Dijock94]

Not sure you got my point. Young players don't usually get big contracts and it's a dangerous precedent to give younger players way higher contracts than they deserve. After the next two years Andersson, Howden and Chytil will all be moving into their second contracts. Which one of those players do you think you'll be giving $5 mil (or more) per year contracts to? Based off of 2018-19 it's very likely none of them will get that--maybe not even near that on their second contracts. Kravtsov and Kakko will be still on ELC's the cap hit limit of which is currently $925K. Buchnevich and DeAngelo if they continue to progress might be $5 mil or more.

Lemieux, DeAngelo, Buchnevich and Pionk are RFA's this summer. Buchnevich is a $3.5-4 mil. Lemieux somewhere between $1.5 and 2. DeAngelo and Pionk probably somewhere around $2.5 each.

In any case we're going to have to reach the floor for the 21-22 season. We can take on some team's toxic contracts I suppose and burn them out for them.

First. It is clearly more dangerous to commit to UFA as opposed to extending our own players to long term deals. McDonagh Skjei Zibanejad Kreider etc we’re all long extensions when signed probably on the highest end of their value. All of them turned into some of our best contracts. While our high end UFAs we signed were literally all contracts we regretted except maybe Gaborik.

You’re looking at possible around 5mil a piece for Buch and DeAngelo if they’re extended with term, but in 3 years when Kakko, Kravstov are up for contracts imagine a scenario where they both blossom into star players. What kind of long term deals can we expect to pay them if they hit? Nylander/Marner contracts? Now add them to Panarins 11.5 Zibanejad/Buch/DeAngel/Skjei all around 5 a piece and all of a sudden we’re laying out a large chunk of cap with also a ton more prospects on the way of looking for raises in Chytil Andersson Howden Hajek Lundqvist Miller. When you think in the long term of this rebuild giving a guy like Panarin a contract like that is going to be incredibly dangerous due to the cap implications. You guarantee me an amnesty buyout in the next CBA and I’m all for it. But if he could be the reason we’re struggling to keep all our homegrown players down the road in their prime years I’m going to lose it.

 

[haohmaru]

It’s funny, since last night I haven’t given a single thought as to whether Kakko or Hughes could or would play in the NHL next season.

While I think Kakko most likely could, I can’t say it matters much to me.

I’m all about the end game. If that means next year doesn’t have that curiosity factor or glimmer of what could someday be, I’m perfectly alright with that.

Agree - but I think both will play the entire season for whatever club picks them. I'd be more surprised if they didn't - moreso with Hughes than Kakko.

 

[BleedinBLUEsince92]

The whole talk about signing UFAs barely 2 years into the rebuilding (if you start it from the Stepan trade) is really annoying. This is why we have 1 Cup in 80 years. Let Gorton do the Gorton. Our window timeline is when Kakko is 22-32 years old. Do stuff so we won't waste his career like we wasted Hank's because our rebuilding at the time consisted of one mid-first pick and 4 seconds, plus a few crappy prospects who all went nowhere. I said even then that we need to dump Nylander, Jagr, etc for quality young assets, the same assets that would've helped us win the Cup in 2012-2016, especially 2014.

I hope those goals Nylander scored in 2006 was worth losing to LA in 2014. Who needs Cups in the future when we can get swept in the first round of the playoffs today.

What's annoying is posters who are ignoring the obvious signs the front office is giving away. What do these comments from Gorton mean to you? "There’s a lot that can happen this summer that can speed that up."... “We’re at a place where you have to look at everything. Whether it’s the free-agent market or the trade market, or how we do things at the draft, we’ll look at all those things and I think we’ll do everything we can to try and advance it.” These comments don't seem to insinuate we're just going to do nothing to improve the team for 4 years until Kakko is older. They're looking to do "everything they can to try and advance" the rebuild...Not my words..straight out of the GM's mouth.

We have literally sold off almost every valuable player we had and collected 7 1st ROUNDERS + other prospects. I'm sorry but people are in la la land if they think we're going to keep doing this for years. It's also ridiculous seeing people complain about our previous run. Are we attempting something different this time? Yes, but to call our last run a failure is absurd. We had been one of the top teams for years. We went to the ECF 3 times in 4 years, 1 cup appearance, and 1 3rd period away from back-to-back Stanley Cup appearances. We built a highly successful team that came up just short.

 

[Edge]

Agree - but I think both will play the entire season for whatever club picks them. I'd be more surprised if they didn't - moreso with Hughes than Kakko.

If I had to it money down, I think they both play as well.

 

[Krams]

If I had to it money down, I think they both play as well.

I'd put a good amount of money on that.

 

[eco's bones]

First. It is clearly more dangerous to commit to UFA as opposed to extending our own players to long term deals. McDonagh Skjei Zibanejad Kreider etc we’re all long extensions when signed probably on the highest end of their value. All of them turned into some of our best contracts. While our high end UFAs we signed were literally all contracts we regretted except maybe Gaborik.

You’re looking at possible around 5mil a piece for Buch and DeAngelo if they’re extended with term, but in 3 years when Kakko, Kravstov are up for contracts imagine a scenario where they both blossom into star players. What kind of long term deals can we expect to pay them if they hit? Nylander/Marner contracts? Now add them to Panarins 11.5 Zibanejad/Buch/DeAngel/Skjei all around 5 a piece and all of a sudden we’re laying out a large chunk of cap with also a ton more prospects on the way of looking for raises in Chytil Andersson Howden Hajek Lundqvist Miller. When you think in the long term of this rebuild giving a guy like Panarin a contract like that is going to be incredibly dangerous due to the cap implications. You guarantee me an amnesty buyout in the next CBA and I’m all for it. But if he could be the reason we’re struggling to keep all our homegrown players down the road in their prime years I’m going to lose it.

There's a difference between the floor and the ceiling. When you have as young a team as we have coming the money is going to be there if Kakko (or Hughes) proves like we think he will that he's legit. Your team though is required to hit the floor every year--that includes next year and the year after and I believe there are penalties for not doing it. It's certainly something the NHLPA would have a major problem with. And if Brendan Lemieux turns into the 3rd liner like I think he will eventually turn into it won't be smart to give him a $5 mil per year contract two years from now. And if Lias Andersson looks more like a 3rd liner than a 2nd liner two years from now--ditto. Not all of our young guys are going to be deserving of big $ contracts the next time their negotiation comes around. Now we can deal with that in a variety of ways that might not include many long term contracts but we're going to have to find avenues to reach the cap floor. That might mean making trades or signing players. That might mean giving Kreider a contract or holding on to guys like Names or Strome and not dealing them at the deadline next year.

A bit of math--approximately $3 mil average per player to be at the cap floor for the 21-22 season if we're talking $60+ mil cap floor. Kakko, Kravtsov, Miller and maybe two or three others on ELC's making around $1 mil per. None of them are going to be getting that $3 mil average on an ELC so the more players on ELC's you have the higher everyone else's average salary has to go to make up the difference. If you figure 10 or 12 of those players are on second contracts--a couple might be top 6 forwards and a couple might be top 4 defensemen but some will also be 3rd and 4th liners and bottom pairing D and then we have Mika and Brady. Getting this kind of a team to the cap floor is going to be an issue.

Look around the league there are multiple big dollar contracts on every team--even the lowest cap teams. We might need a Panarin + another significant contract or two just so we can be at the floor when Henrik, Shatty, Staal and Smith depart.

 

[Dijock94]

There's a difference between the floor and the ceiling. When you have as young a team as we have coming the money is going to be there if Kakko (or Hughes) proves like we think he will that he's legit. Your team though is required to hit the floor every year--that includes next year and the year after and I believe there are penalties for not doing it. It's certainly something the NHLPA would have a major problem with. And if Brendan Lemieux turns into the 3rd liner like I think he will eventually turn into it won't be smart to give him a $5 mil per year contract two years from now. And if Lias Andersson looks more like a 3rd liner than a 2nd liner two years from now--ditto. Not all of our young guys are going to be deserving of big $ contracts the next time their negotiation comes around. Now we can deal with that in a variety of ways that might not include many long term contracts but we're going to have to find avenues to reach the cap floor. That might mean making trades or signing players. That might mean giving Kreider a contract or holding on to guys like Names or Strome and not dealing them at the deadline next year.

A bit of math--approximately $3 mil average per player to be at the cap floor for the 21-22 season if we're talking $60+ mil cap floor. Kakko, Kravtsov, Miller and maybe two or three others on ELC's making around $1 mil per. None of them are going to be getting that average on an ELC so the more players on ELC's you have the higher everyone else's average salary has to go to make up the difference. If you figure 10 or 12 of those players are on second contracts--a couple might be top 6 forwards and a couple might be top 4 defensemen but also 3rd and 4th liner and bottom pairing D and then we have Mika and Brady. Getting this kind of a team to the cap floor is going to be an issue.

Look around the league there are multiple big dollar contracts on every team--even the lowest cap teams.

Getting to the floor will not be an issue. This year we have no one coming off the books and we have to resign Buch DeAngelo Pionk and Lemieux.

Let’s say

Buch 4.5
DeAngelo 2.5
Pionk 2
Lemieux 1.5
Lettieri 700k

Girardi also still has 3.6 in dead cap.

That leaves one roster spot for Kravstov at 925k. That lineup right there has 8.9 million in cap space. Swap out Strome for Panarin at 11 and we are completely maxed on the cap, or Namestnikov and we have about a million.

And that’s just for next year. What happens when in two years DeAngelo and Pionk are coming off those bridge deals and you have to sign Chytil Howden Andersson that same year. All those crap contracts that are due to come off are books are now being replaced by these extensions that will be due.

It’s happens to every dynasty. Chicago had to let Saad Byfuglien Panarin Teravainen all walk because they couldn’t fit all these guys. Look at the jets, they’re already going to have to walk away from Trouba because they can’t afford to keep him Laine and Conner.

I’m just saying there can be severe repercussions down the road with this Panarin contract.

 

[Vitto79]

I think I’m in the sign Kreider let Panarin go to Fla

Kreider , Zib , Kakko
Kravtsov , Chytil , Buch
Lemieux , Howden , Strome
Vesey , Andersson , Fast

Names goes to Canp but really only fits if a kids starts in the AHL which is fine

 

[Ori]

@Ola like Alex Turcotte and I almost 100% based on size reason in that center position, but he did almost better than Jack Hughes on the USHL though so I can understand it. But Turcotte I believe the NHL team who draft him will be very happy so deep draft in 2019.

 

[EpicDing]

I for on am looking forward to the 6k line - Kris Kreider - Kaapo Kakko - Kviltali Kravtsov

 

[eco's bones]

Getting to the floor will not be an issue. This year we have no one coming off the books and we have to resign Buch DeAngelo Pionk and Lemieux.

Let’s say

Buch 4.5
DeAngelo 2.5
Pionk 2
Lemieux 1.5
Lettieri 700k

Girardi also still has 3.6 in dead cap.

That leaves one roster spot for Kravstov at 925k. That lineup right there has 8.9 million in cap space. Swap out Strome for Panarin at 11 and we are completely maxed on the cap, or Namestnikov and we have about a million.

And that’s just for next year. What happens when in two years DeAngelo and Pionk are coming off those bridge deals and you have to sign Chytil Howden Andersson that same year. All those crap contracts that are due to come off are books are now being replaced by these extensions that will be due.

It’s happens to every dynasty. Chicago had to let Saad Byfuglien Panarin Teravainen all walk because they couldn’t fit all these guys. Look at the jets, they’re already going to have to walk away from Trouba because they can’t afford to keep him Laine and Conner.

I’m just saying there can be severe repercussions down the road with this Panarin contract.

I agree--not this year but two years from now it will unless we do something between now and then. What I'm saying is it might be better to get ahead of the problem. $25 mil coming off the books in 20-21 is a big number. If we've moved Kreider and Namestnikov in between that could be another several million depending on what you get back--if it's just draft picks it might be close to $10. And looking at free agency this year if there's one player that I'd take a chance on it is Panarin and I'm not sure that in the next two years we'll find a better guy than him either. So if no Panarin we might have to hold on to some of Kreider, Strome, Namestnikov, Fast, Vesey. We're going to need some of them or replace some of them with similar guys.

For 21-22 right now all we have are Z-bad and Skjei's contracts and a little over $1 mil for Girardi. The bulk of our first, second and third year players + the ELC's + whoever we add needs to get to the floor. There is about $20 mil between the floor and the ceiling. When Kakko (or Hughes) and Kravtsov hit their 2nd contract most of that money should be available.

 

[haohmaru]

I think I’m in the sign Kreider let Panarin go to Fla

Kreider , Zib , Kakko
Kravtsov , Chytil , Buch
Lemieux , Howden , Strome
Vesey , Andersson , Fast

Names goes to Canp but really only fits if a kids starts in the AHL which is fine

I don't see the benefit, other than cap space, of signing Kreider and not kicking the tires on Panarin.

Sign Panarin. All it costs is cap space.

Trade Kreider for a 1st + +

You've got a better, younger, player that costs you nothing and another 1st rounder in the strongest draft in years + a few prospects.

I'm either in the trade Kreider forget Panarin camp or the trade Kreider sign Panarin camp. I'm not for the 7 x 6.5/7M NTC Kreider camp. At all.

 

[Dijock94]

I agree--not this year but two years from now it will unless we do something between now and then. What I'm saying is it might be better to get ahead of the problem. $25 mil coming off the books in 20-21 is a big number. If we've moved Kreider and Namestnikov in between that could be another several million depending on what you get back--if it's just draft picks it might be close to $10. And looking at free agency this year if there's one player that I'd take a chance on it is Panarin and I'm not sure that in the next two years we'll find a better guy than him either. So if no Panarin we might have to hold on to some of Kreider, Strome, Namestnikov, Fast, Vesey. We're going to need some of them or replace some of them with similar guys.

For 21-22 right now all we have are Z-bad and Skjei's contracts and a little over $1 mil for Girardi. The bulk of our first, second and third year players + the ELC's + whoever we add needs to get to the floor. There is about $20 mil between the floor and the ceiling. When Kakko (or Hughes) and Kravtsov hit their 2nd contract most of that money should be available.

Maybe we have a lot of room for 20-21, but what happens in years 22-23 when we’re going to have to lock up all these guys we drafted that are entering their prime, plus a Mika extension unless we decide to move on from him. You’re also not thinking about all the other guys that are going to be due raises. We may be losing 20-25 but how much of that is going to guys like Chytil Andersson Howden DeAngelo Pionk the following year. The year after Kakko Kravstov, we need to maintain legitimate flexibility until we know what our prospects turn into.

 

[Speedtrials]

I see Chytil penciled in as our 2nd line center a lot. Not really sure that is the best idea for the team or him. Will there be any guys like Cullen, Ruchin, etc to take some of the pressure of the kids for a season?

 

[Beacon]

I don't see them being worse honestly.

Depends. If Chytil breaks into a 60 point center, Butcher improves, Kravtsov hits .5+ ppg, ADA establishes himself as a first pair D, they are better. None of these are guaranteed and very unlikely that all of these happen. Probably some. But we also will likely to get a guy struggling out of nowhere or getting injured.

Most likely, the next draft will be similar to this one, except we dont know how the lottery will go: we'll be in spot 4-7 pre-lottery, another first at a similar position to the Jets pick because we likely pull a similar trade to that of Hayes, a couple extra seconds (Names, Vesey and/or Fast trades). It's not a bad position to be in given the torrent of youth the Rangers acquired since the Brassard for Zibanejad trade.

 

[Beacon]

A team needs at least 3 stars (Leetch, Zubov, Messier; Cindy, Malkin, Kessel) plus good support staff (Richter, Graves, Kovalev) who can look like stars on many nights. We may get one star with Kakko. Another early pick next year gives us a somewhat realistic shot at one more. We then have a bunch of prospects with high ceilings (Chytil, Kravtsov, K'Andre, Shesterkin). Until 3 stars and 3-4 other top-shelf players emerge, we will be rebuilding, whether we like it or not.

 

[Vitto79]

I don't see the benefit, other than cap space, of signing Kreider and not kicking the tires on Panarin.

Sign Panarin. All it costs is cap space.

Trade Kreider for a 1st + +

You've got a better, younger, player that costs you nothing and another 1st rounder in the strongest draft in years + a few prospects.

I'm either in the trade Kreider forget Panarin camp or the trade Kreider sign Panarin camp. I'm not for the 7 x 6.5/7M NTC Kreider camp. At all.

So if they trade Kreider and don’t sign Panarin you are ok w the top 6 of all kids and Zib cause that’s what it is no ?

 

[Fitzy]

My soul would die if Pionk gets $2.5M.

Pfft. You didn't die when we gave Matt Gilroy 1.75m with a much lower cap.

 

[Ori]

I see Chytil penciled in as our 2nd line center a lot. Not really sure that is the best idea for the team or him. Will there be any guys like Cullen, Ruchin, etc to take some of the pressure of the kids for a season?

The ideal line for him and Lias is on our 3rd line for sure next season - it take off some pressure to perform and I only believe it benefits both - they can focus more on developing and play the the two way game.

I would use one of Nam or Strome on that 2nd line, but we lack top 6 potential at the moment without UFA signings.