Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVI

[haohmaru]

AK, I certainly hope that he is ready. My reticence comes from 1) the kid is just 17 today 2) what is the need to rush this?

Is it "rushing" if he's ready?

DOB Feb 13, 2001 - makes him 18, no?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

AK, I certainly hope that he is ready. My reticence comes from 1) the kid is just 17 today 2) what is the need to rush this?

He has nothing to learn in Liiga. He's almost a PPG player in the 5th best league in the world.

 

[True Blue]

You’re going to add Panarin Fox Kakko and Kravtsov Lib Hajek

Plus a year older Chytil Howden Lias DeAngelo Buchnevich

Subtract Jimmy Vesey Vlad Namestnikov Claesson and most likely Shattenkirk or Pionk

And you think you’re going to finish worse than this year?

This team if they do add Panarin and maybe a Dman is Making the playoffs

Let's leave Panarin out of this. The chances of Kravston stepping in and immediately being an impact player isn't high. The odds of Kakko being one of the very, very few 18 year olds to crack 40 points is even lower than that. Sure, Chytil, Howden, Anderson can take steps forward. And hopefully they do. But banking on these being material steps forward?

You cannot state that Shattenkirk most likely not being here. That is fantasy. How you you off loading him? Stall and Smith are also still here and are also a year older. That's half of your defense.

Panarin? There is absolutely no smoke and absolutely no fire aside from St. Elmo's fire that is created on this board.

Add Panarin and this team, will still be competing for a top-5 pick.

 

[True Blue]

Is it "rushing" if he's ready?

DOB Feb 13, 2001 - makes him 18, no?

Let's be clear. NO ONE knows if he is ready. You are are hoping that he is ready. But that does not mean you can just hand a job to him or pencil him in.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Let's leave Panarin out of this. The chances of Kravston stepping in and immediately being an impact player isn't high. The odds of Kakko being one of the very, very few 18 year olds to crack 40 points is even lower than that. Sure, Chytil, Howden, Anderson can take steps forward. And hopefully they do. But banking on these being material steps forward?

You cannot state that Shattenkirk most likely not being here. That is fantasy. How you you off loading him? Stall and Smith are also still here and are also a year older. That's half of your defense.

Panarin? There is absolutely no smoke and absolutely no fire aside from St. Elmo's fire that is created on this board.

Add Panarin and this team, will still be competing for a top-5 pick.

I dunno about that.

There is a ton of work to be done by him, but pretty much everything he does well translates overseas.

I wouldn't count on it, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Let's be clear. NO ONE knows if he is ready. You are are hoping that he is ready. But that does not mean you can just hand a job to him or pencil him in.

They won't. They will have him practice with the team, and then decide. But nothing is pointing at him not being ready. This isn't a player picked in the bottom of the top-10. This is a kid who is picked 2nd overall. He's a potential Calder Trophy winner at age 18

 

[Matt4776]

Let's leave Panarin out of this. The chances of Kravston stepping in and immediately being an impact player isn't high. The odds of Kakko being one of the very, very few 18 year olds to crack 40 points is even lower than that. Sure, Chytil, Howden, Anderson can take steps forward. And hopefully they do. But banking on these being material steps forward?

You cannot state that Shattenkirk most likely not being here. That is fantasy. How you you off loading him? Stall and Smith are also still here and are also a year older. That's half of your defense.

Panarin? There is absolutely no smoke and absolutely no fire aside from St. Elmo's fire that is created on this board.

Add Panarin and this team, will still be competing for a top-5 pick.

I think of all the forwards drafted top-2 in recent memory, >50% have cracked 40 points.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think of all the forwards drafted top-2 in recent memory, >50% have cracked 40 points.

As 18 year old rookies?
2018- no
2017- no
2016- yes
2015- yes
2014- didnt make it until his D+2 season
2013- no
2012- D
2011- yes
2010- no

The 3 who did were Laine, Eichel and Landeskog.

Eichel and Landeskog were almost eligible for the 2014 and 2010 drafts, respectively.

 

[Matt4776]

As 18 year old rookies?
2018- no
2017- no
2016- yes
2015- yes
2014- didnt make it until his D+2 season
2013- no
2012- D
2011- yes
2010- no

The 3 who did were Laine, Eichel and Landeskog.

Eichel and Landeskog were almost eligible for the 2014 and 2010 drafts, respectively.

Nico hit 50, didn't he?

EDIT: And Hall did?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Nico hit 50, didn't he?

EDIT: And Hall did?

I misread what you said, I thought this was exclusive to people just picked at 2OA

 

[mike14]

Nico hit 50, didn't he?

EDIT: And Hall did?

Hall put up 42 in his rookie year

 

[Matt4776]

Hall put up 42 in his rookie year

Sorry, the original post said 40 points.

 

[Beacon]

You are looking at stats with blinders on as the basis of your opinion.

Every year it's the same conversation: "No, but in the past most 4-10 players didn't become stars, but this year it is totally different. Just look at the glowing scouting reports. This year the first 8-12 players will all be difference makers unless maybe 1-2 bust, but most of them for sure are difference-makers." Every single year. It has yet to be right.

You state that those picked 4-6 mostly do not play on the top pair. The fallacy here, among others, is that the whole argument goes to hell if a team takes him at 3. According to you, then his chances at being a top pairing defenseman jump dramatically.

So in addition to bad math, we also have bad English comprehension here. I never said #3 overall become stars. I said the opposite, in fact. Most of them do not. I even put the word "not" in all capital letters. What part of that was not clear?

What I did say is that the odds of a player get worse. I said it's a spectrum. So a 3rd overall might have a 25% shot of being a star and 70% chance of playing in the top 6 whereas a 6th overall might be at 15% of being a star and 40% chance of being on the top-6. Those are not exact percentages, I forgot what they are, but find the Sports Illustrated article and you'll see it. There's a spectrum where the odds of a player being a star fall with every position and the odds of him being a bust skyrocket between #2 and #9.

In fact, the biggest 'line' is not normally between top-3 and the next group, but between the second-best draftee and a group of the next half a dozen to a dozen draftees. Usually there are 2 really good prospects, though sometimes just 1 and sometimes 3, but usually 2. That's why top-3 seems a bit weird, but I guess at #3, we are talking about a kid who is "the best of the rest" so that's something. Better than being the worst of the rest and slipping to #12. Any particular kid could overachieve despite a later draft selection (see: Lundqvist vs DiPietro), but long-term, there's a clear sliding down of results with every single draft position.

Byram's abilities stay the same, but his chance of being a top pairing defenseman increase with his drafting position?

Because you're assuming that you're judging his abilities properly. If a dozen GMs, backed by an army of scouts and other professionals who watched the crap out of the kid disagree with your assessment (that you based on reading other amateurs' reports), then it might be that the prospect is not as good as you thought he will be. It's not that the prospect got worse, it's that he was always worse than your impression of him.

Since we are debating the type of prospect he is now, what multiple armies have passed on him?

I am talking about someone who isn't a top pick. As a general rule, expectations should be in line with past players who got drafted in the same position, unless the player (post-draft) either explodes or busts. But on the day after the draft, that's how it is. No, this will not be the first draft in NHL history where 9 of 10 top-10 draftees will be top-6 players. Prospects drafted in 2019 will bust at roughly the same rate as prospects drafted in the past.

You have not contributed a single thing as to your view, aside from telling you what stats say.

Yeah, I'm sorry I'm not rehashing the same few scouting reports everyone here already read while just assuming that each player reaches his outmost ceiling in the most glowing scouting report. I would think that giving real analysis of how players performed in the past is more unique than repeating the same scouting reports we all saw.

First of all, can you site just a few of the armies that have stated that Byram does not project to be a 1D?

Honestly, are you slow? I'm not trying to insult you, I'm genuinely wondering. What do you not get about the idea that nothing here is 100% or 0%, and it's a spectrum? Nobody is saying he won't be a 1D. But the odds of him being 1D are well below 50-50. If not, he'd be a first overall pick. Nobody let's a sure-fire or near-surefire 1D go to pick #5 because never in the history of the NHL draft were there 5 guys with near-certainty of being a first line F or first pair D, much less a 1D.

Second of all, you have no idea if I just read on here, or just watch a few clips, or maybe read a few reports, or maybe read reports and do a good deal of watching like most others here.

I don't care what you do. Your analysis is that of someone who has no clue about drafting. Everyone (including myself), when they start following prospects assumes that the top-10 draftees are stars, the rest of the first round are at least second liners, the second round is made up of at least third liners with second line potential. Early on, you also don't understand that dominating kids in the Juniors/NCAA or adults in inferior leagues means jack-s--t. You look at some kid like Tanner Glass be an amazing power forward in college and think he will be the next Keith Tkachuk. Then you keep on being disappointed with the results.

According to you, the great majority of top line players and top pair defensemen in the league today have gone either 1OA or 2OA. That is a rather astounding statistic.

I would accuse you of lying here, but obviously you're just mistaken because you cannot understand either math or English, so let me explain it to you slowly:

1. Players at 18 cannot be predicted with certainty
2. The players who have highest odds of success, go first.
3. The ones who have lower odds, go later.
4. Sometimes a player who has 90% odds of success still fails because of the other 10%.
5. Sometimes another player who has only a 10% shot at being good succeeds.
6. As a result, sometimes a second round pick turns out better than a second overall pick.
7. However, on the draft day, the odds of the 2OA are much higher than the odds of a second rounder.
8. Again, since you can't comprehend it, this doesn't mean that 2OA is guaranteed to be better than a second rounder on the draft day. Please go back and re-read points 1-7 until it becomes clear to you.

Then proceed to the next point:

No draft EVER had 9 of the top 10 draftees become good NHLers. Not 8, not 7, not 6. After the top 1-3 players (depending on the draft), the odds for the rest are MUCH worse than 50-50 to become difference-makers on a team. You draft guys at #7 because a 25% chance of a first liner is a hell of a lot better than no chance at all. Now go back and re-read the part about how not everything is either 100% or 0%.

 

[QJL]

Dream Draft:

Kaapo Kakko
Moritz Seider
Philip Tomasino
Ilya Nikolaev
Dillon Hamaliuk
Ben Brinkman
Alex Beaucage
Simon Lundmark
Jeremie Bucheler
Lucas Feuk

Bring it home Gordie!

 

[Ola]

He is a 1D.

What do you think Subban would return? And which team would give it up?

 

[Fitzy]

On the topic of Kakko's production, if he ends up on a line with Kreider and Zibanejad consistently, he'll absolutely hit 45+ points.

If he doesn't or gets in the coach's doghouse frequently, different story.

 

[Beacon]

The whole talk about signing UFAs barely 2 years into the rebuilding (if you start it from the Stepan trade) is really annoying. This is why we have 1 Cup in 80 years. Let Gorton do the Gorton. Our window timeline is when Kakko is 22-32 years old. Do stuff so we won't waste his career like we wasted Hank's because our rebuilding at the time consisted of one mid-first pick and 4 seconds, plus a few crappy prospects who all went nowhere. I said even then that we need to dump Nylander, Jagr, etc for quality young assets, the same assets that would've helped us win the Cup in 2012-2016, especially 2014.

I hope those goals Nylander scored in 2006 was worth losing to LA in 2014. Who needs Cups in the future when we can get swept in the first round of the playoffs today.

 

[eco's bones]

Looking ahead a couple years. At the end of 20-21 Henrik Lundqvist (8.5 mil), Kevin Shattenkirk (6.65 mil), Marc Staal (5.7 mil) and Brendan Smith (4.35 mil) are all scheduled to come off the books. I can't see us re-signing any of them let alone for the salaries they've had. That's a massive amount of cap hit to come off the books in one year alone--over $25 mil. Currently the cap floor is at $58.8 and it will almost certainly be over $60 mil two years from now. Keeping in mind if we move Kreider and if we move Vesey, Fast, Namestnikov and Strome that will be a whole lot more of cap off the books and we'll still have to get back over $60 mil and the solution isn't to overpay your young guys on their second contracts--at least not unless they really earn it. So it seems to me that we are going back into the free agent market or making some significant trades sooner or later and it would be smarter to work at doing that little by little instead of waiting until the last minute and maybe dealing with a market place where things don't look all that appealing.

 

[Dijock94]

The whole talk about signing UFAs barely 2 years into the rebuilding (if you start it from the Stepan trade) is really annoying. This is why we have 1 Cup in 80 years. Let Gorton do the Gorton. Our window timeline is when Kakko is 22-32 years old. Do stuff so we won't waste his career like we wasted Hank's because our rebuilding at the time consisted of one mid-first pick and 4 seconds, plus a few crappy prospects who all went nowhere. I said even then that we need to dump Nylander, Jagr, etc for quality young assets, the same assets that would've helped us win the Cup in 2012-2016, especially 2014.

I hope those goals Nylander scored in 2006 was worth losing to LA in 2014. Who needs Cups in the future when we can get swept in the first round of the playoffs today.

I agree, we also have to consider how many first rounders we have through 4 years potentially. If we hit on 5 of them and they demand significant contracts Panarins cap hit is going to completely screw us. We will be losing core players and be stuck with a (most likely declining Panarin) in 4 years when we need that cap to extend our core that we’re drafting now.

 

[Dijock94]

Looking ahead a couple years. At the end of 20-21 Henrik Lundqvist (8.5 mil), Kevin Shattenkirk (6.65 mil), Marc Staal (5.7 mil) and Brendan Smith (4.35 mil) are all scheduled to come off the books. I can't see us re-signing any of them let alone for the salaries they've had. That's a massive amount of cap hit to come off the books in one year alone--over $25 mil. Currently the cap floor is at $58.8 and it will almost certainly be over $60 mil two years from now. Keeping in mind if we move Kreider and if we move Vesey, Fast, Namestnikov and Strome that will be a whole lot more of cap off the books and we'll still have to get back over $60 mil and the solution isn't to overpay your young guys on their second contracts--at least not unless they really earn it. So it seems to me that we are going back into the free agent market or making some significant trades sooner or later and it would be smarter to work at doing that little by little instead of waiting until the last minute and maybe dealing with a market place where things don't look all that appealing.

That is a lot of cap coming off the books, but consider the raises you have to pay Chytil Andersson Howden DeAngelo Buchnevich Kravstov Kakko. That’s going to cost us a considerable amount of money.

Edit: add in Hajek maybe Fox if we get him. Shesty Georgie Lemieux.

 

[haohmaru]

Let's be clear. NO ONE knows if he is ready. You are are hoping that he is ready. But that does not mean you can just hand a job to him or pencil him in.

I think there are a lot of people that have a much better idea than either of us if he's ready. I'm not "hoping that he is ready" at all. If he's not, he's not. We'll see.

 

[Beacon]

The only real acquisition I want this summer is Fox. Maybe Names and a second rounder. Adding Kakko and Fox is a much bigger step to getting the Cup than throwing money at Kreider and Panarin.

 

[SA16]

The whole talk about signing UFAs barely 2 years into the rebuilding (if you start it from the Stepan trade) is really annoying. This is why we have 1 Cup in 80 years. Let Gorton do the Gorton. Our window timeline is when Kakko is 22-32 years old. Do stuff so we won't waste his career like we wasted Hank's because our rebuilding at the time consisted of one mid-first pick and 4 seconds, plus a few crappy prospects who all went nowhere. I said even then that we need to dump Nylander, Jagr, etc for quality young assets, the same assets that would've helped us win the Cup in 2012-2016, especially 2014.

I hope those goals Nylander scored in 2006 was worth losing to LA in 2014. Who needs Cups in the future when we can get swept in the first round of the playoffs today.

UFA has not existed for 80 years so this is actually not why we have one cup in 80 years

 

[Trxjw]

I'm usually about as staunch of a "don't rush the kids" guy as there is, but Kakko definitely belongs in the NHL next year.

That being said, even Sasha Barkov took a couple years before his game really took off. Granted he had some injury problems but expecting big numbers on what will likely be a bad team is probably unrealistic.

 

[Ola]

On the topic of Kakko's production, if he ends up on a line with Kreider and Zibanejad consistently, he'll absolutely hit 45+ points.

If he doesn't or gets in the coach's doghouse frequently, different story.

And @Beacon:

For sure, the thing is. The No 1-2 kids make it and produce — because their team makes sure of it (unless you are EDM).

You draft these kids because they have the gods, then you invest in them. That is how it is. Chytil, Lias and co., tough luck but unless we let Kakko play another year in the Liiga or sends him to the AHL they will have to stand back a little, on the PP for example. It’s not unfair, they could have performed well enough to be a No 2 pick too.

John Tavares scored 24+30 his rookie season, was he ready? Far from it. They sucked and the entire team played a game about getting the puck to JT. With the puck on his stick on the PP he was ready, but 5 on 5? In the 2-way game? He was in over his head, couldn’t really keep up without the puck. That was extreme, how NYI rallied around him.

If you get a 2nd overall pick it can never be an issue for that pick to get to usage that he needs to play to his strength. Give him sheltered minutes 5 on 5. PP time and so forth. That is the difference, you don’t start him on the outside looking in, and if he shows his forefeets give him a shot when an opening becomes available, you take it 2-3 steps further than that.

On Kravtsov, I get what you mean Beacon, and I often agree with you. But I do think Kravy is the type who will get into the NHL and at least on a top 9, about as easy as it’s possible to make that transaction.

Why? Like Kravtsov has a Carl Hagelin side to his game too, if you get what I mean. Or even a mix of Hagelin and Callahan. He can be that guy that you put on the ice to just stress Ds, hunt down lose pucks, like Hagelin, or that drive it up ice to gain the redline to get it deep like Cally was so strong at. That is really his — strongest — ability. His shot and hands and playmaking ability gives him potential, but when you compare him to other high top offensive prospects it’s that side of Kravtsovs game that sets him apart. It’s not that he has better hands than a Demisenko or a better shot than a Wahlstrom or is a better playmaker than an Alex Nylander, it’s that he is so strong overall.

So I do definitely expect both Kravy and Kakko to play on the NHL team. Kakko is probably the best player in the draft today, he is really good down low, on the PP and so forth. Put him in an offensive role and he will do well. We can make sure that he gets the support he needs. Kravy will just be so easy to fit into the lineup.

I wasn’t nearly as certain on that Buch would be ready from Day 1, I definitely think you make some good arguments. I think we made mistakes rushing both Chytil and Andersson. But with these two I think it’s different.