Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVI

[True Blue]

What are you talking about odds not in our favor? As he just showed, the odds are very much in our favor.

Historically speaking, how many players have made such a jump and made an impact immediately?

 

[True Blue]

But then the Rangers can’t ‘go all in’ next season.

Wow. How awful is that, huh?

 

[Ola]

Subban is not going to be cheap to trade for. Any team with cap space for him can/would easily beat that offer which is basically a bunch of junk for Subban.

Which team is taking on 9m of cap space while giving up top young assets for someone that isn't a top No 1 D anymore? That sounds a bit absurd to be honest.

 

[QJL]

Building these lines is tough. Lots of ideal RWs and no true 2C.

I think we get Panarin and Fox.

Kreider - Zibanejad - Buchnevich
Panarin - Chytil - Kakko
Namestnikov - Howden - Kravtsov
Lemieux - Strome - Fast
Andersson

Skjei - DeAngelo
Rykov - Fox
Hajek - Shattenkirk
Claesson
Pionk

Lundqvist
Georgiev/Shestyorkin

Vesey traded
Nieves clears
Smith clears
Staal clears...

Lindgren, Keane, and Barron are the potential risers out of the AHL

 

[Beacon]

So why am I trading the teams best LW (when I don't have to and where they are thinnest) for something that isn't at least close to guaranteed?

I already said it, so I'll quote it: [because Kreider is an] "impending UFA who will be in his 30s by the time Kakko, Kravtsov, Chytil, etc mature and Hank, Staal, Shatty and Smith leave the cap."

And who wants to give up Zibanejad?

Because that's what Byram would cost us. Nobody will trade Byram for Kreider. An impending unrestricted free agent with a 53 point career high doesn't get you a top-6 pick. Ask yourself, who would you trade Kravtsov for an impending free agent who is not an All Star? A team that can draft Byram is rebuilding, they don't need to surrender possibly their best prospect for a UFA.

Look at the Hayes trade for an example of what we can get, give or take a late second round pick.

 

[apoptygma]

He’ll be in the NHL, he won’t be a first liner though

It will most likly take several year until he is a first liner, atleast a very good one. McDavid and Matthews are the only ones that really did it. Laine had 36 goals as a rookie, but much of them was as part of a great WPG PP.

 

[DanielBrassard]

But then the Rangers can’t ‘go all in’ next season.

Which people are saying to go all-in? Signing Panarin isn't going all in.

 

[haohmaru]

Stay with the plan.

This is still a bottom five team even with Kakko or Hughes in the fold. Keep accumulating young assets and picks until next year's draft. Go for it after next season.

There are other wingers available in free agency that can provide veteran leadership for the young group. Trade Kreider and try to acquire another 1st this year or next.

We weren't a bottom 5 team this year and we didn't have Kakko (Hughes?), Kravstov, Shesty, or any of the UFA's we're picking up this summer. Chytil, Andersson, DeAngelo, Hajek, Lindgren, Howden, etc... will all be a year older and wiser. I don't see next year's team being worse than this year. Not saying they'll make the playoffs, but they're finishing with more than 78 points next season.

Trade Kreider (1st +). Trade Vesey (3rd?). Nail Staal to a seat in the press box. Explore what you can get for Georgiev if Shesty signs. See what's on the market this summer. Interesting times ahead.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Which people are saying to go all-in? Signing Panarin isn't going all in.

Have you read this thread? I didn’t pull that out of thin air. There are posters here that have used those exact words.

 

[Matt4776]

Historically speaking, how many players have made such a jump and made an impact immediately?

We don't need him to make an "impact" immediately (though I think he's good for 45-50 points). Why do you think he'd develop better in Finland or the dumpster fire that is Hartford than playing on Mika's RW?

 

[haohmaru]

Historically speaking, how many players have made such a jump and made an impact immediately?

The very same scouts that you were hootin' and hollering about a page back pretty much unanimously say that Kakko is ready to play in the NHL. Can't have it both ways.

 

[BBKers]

I would do these 3 trades before the draft:

Jimmy Vesey for Zach Bogosian and a small add
Neil Pionk for Adam Fox and a small add
Kevin Shattenkirk (50% retained) plus Something medium to Vegas for Colin Miller

Look at trading Kreider at the draft If the right deal pops up.
Maybe Something based around Skjei for Trouba with us adding Something more
I had a future lineup - for whatever reason - with Panarin in it earlier today. My bad. I Hope We Stay away from him and EK this offseason.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Have you read this thread?

I have, but I don't see people saying to go all-in. I see people saying that we should accelerate the rebuild by adding an elite UFA and maybe a trade for a defenseman.

 

[Thirty One]

Historically speaking, how many players have made such a jump and made an impact immediately?

What would be the case for not having Kakko in the NHL next year?

 

[Matt4776]

We weren't a bottom 5 team this year and we didn't have Kakko (Hughes?), Kravstov, Shesty, or any of the UFA's we're picking up this summer. Chytil, Andersson, DeAngelo, Hajek, Lindgren, Howden, etc... will all be a year older and wiser. I don't see next year's team being worse than this year. Not saying they'll make the playoffs, but they're finishing with more than 78 points next season.

Trade Kreider (1st +). Trade Vesey (3rd?). Nail Staal to a seat in the press box. Explore what you can get for Georgiev if Shesty signs. See what's on the market this summer. Interesting times ahead.

We had Hayes+Zuccarello for 3/4 of the year. Won't next year. We didn't have any serious injuries. Unknown next year. We're likely going to be without Kreider this year.

If Zibanejad gets hurt (or doesn't maintain his PPG pace) next year for any significant amount of time, we're picking bottom 4.

If we don't go like 7-2 in the shootout, we're picking bottom 4.

Remember, we had the fewest ROW in the league. Luck had a good bit to do with why we were at 6.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I have, but I don't see people saying to go all-in. I see people saying that we should accelerate the rebuild by adding an elite UFA and maybe a trade for a defenseman.

A particular poster has said those exact words.

 

[Fitzy]

I mean, we didn't finish in the bottom 5. But we were absolutely a bottom 5 team.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I already said it, so I'll quote it: [because Kreider is an] "impending UFA who will be in his 30s by the time Kakko, Kravtsov, Chytil, etc mature and Hank, Staal, Shatty and Smith leave the cap."



Because that's what Byram would cost us. Nobody will trade Byram for Kreider. An impending unrestricted free agent with a 53 point career high doesn't get you a top-6 pick. Ask yourself, who would you trade Kravtsov for an impending free agent who is not an All Star? A team that can draft Byram is rebuilding, they don't need to surrender possibly their best prospect for a UFA.

Look at the Hayes trade for an example of what we can get, give or take a late second round pick.

#1 - So, you aren't allowed to have anyone over the age of 30 on a Cup contending roster? Does Pittsburgh and Washington know this?

#2 - Then they don't trade Zibanejad for the 6th pick. Fine by me. Let them stay where they are and if there's a player they like a few spots earlier, Gorton can do what he did last year with Miller. But I'm still not trading Kreider for the 15th pick right now and I'm sure as hell not trading him for a 2nd rounder.

 

[Matt4776]

#1 - So, you aren't allowed to have anyone over the age of 30 on a Cup contending roster? Does Pittsburgh and Washington know this?

#2 - Then they don't trade Zibanejad for the 6th pick. Fine by me. Let them stay where they are and if there's a player they like a few spots earlier, Gorton can do what he did last year with Miller. But I'm still not trading Kreider for the 15th pick right now and I'm sure as hell not trading him for a 2nd rounder.

You can acquire the very good player over the age of 30 when you're actually ready to compete. Especially if you see him still playing good hockey at age 29/30/31. Removes the risk of having to make a 7 year projection with a lot of money tied up.

 

[haohmaru]

We had Hayes+Zuccarello for 3/4 of the year. Won't next year. We didn't have any serious injuries. Unknown next year. We're likely going to be without Kreider this year.

If Zibanejad gets hurt (or doesn't maintain his PPG pace) next year for any significant amount of time, we're picking bottom 4.

If we don't go like 7-2 in the shootout, we're picking bottom 4.

Remember, we had the fewest ROW in the league. Luck had a good bit to do with why we were at 6.

I'll counter that with:

Buchnevich took a huge step forward after Zooks left and was the 2nd highest scoring player for the NYR in 2019

No idea what UFA's are signing here this summer

We had, what, 30+ one goal games?

If we don't have 14 OT/SO L's we're finishing top 20

Howden was out. Zuccarello was out. Shattenkirk's knee wasn't 100% until January/February

We'll see next year who made the better prediction.

 

[Ola]

I mean, we didn't finish in the bottom 5. But we were absolutely a bottom 5 team.

Or? We only had the 22nd most Regular Time Losses.

To be honest, to loser point actually screwed us, not the other way around. But its part of the game OTOH.

 

[AIexisLafreniereNYR]

I mean, we didn't finish in the bottom 5. But we were absolutely a bottom 5 team.

Granted almost a quarter of the season we got a free point. 5-6 of those games that dont go into overtime were top 3 worst record. But absolutely blessed where we finished, was extremely pissed but we lucked out

 

[Beacon]

The same can be said of anyone in any draft.

Correct. Look up the past drafts. Sports Illustrated had an article last year on odds per position. Since we were drafting at #9 at the time, I remember that the odds of a #9 were 50% of being a 4th liner or worse. Even by #4 overall, the odds were something fairly high.

Even Hughes is nothing but potential right now. Literally ZERO people who have any understanding of the draft can possibly unequivocally state that Hughes WILL be a franchise top line center.

Math is not your strong suit obviously. A #1 pick has something like a 95% chance of being top-6 and pretty great odds of being a star. We can plug in a guy on the first line/pair when he has only a 10-20% chance of not getting there. It's different when a kid, based on his draft position, has greater odds of being a 4th liner than 1st liner, yet you plug him in as a first liner and start talking about retraining others into a different position.

All they can say is that he has a good chance. Ditto Byram.

No, just no. A 90% chance is not the same as a 20-30% chance.

But by your own logic, barely any defensemen who get drafted 4-6 play on the top pairing.

It's not my logic, it is the basic ability to review past draft results.

By that logic, no matter how many defensive prospects you draft, unless you are taking them 1-3, will virtually never play on top pair.

Yes, most top-10 picks outside of the top 3 are not first line/pair players. Go review past draftees in the 4-10 range. We had 7 picks in that range from 1987, excluding Kravtsov and Lias who are too young to judge. Not one of them became any good. Sundstrom became an average NHLer, and he was the best one. Lias likely won't be a first liner either. Maybe Kravtsov, but way too early to tell. And it is not merely because our drafting sucked. Most teams have similar records in that range.

How much do I detest this argument?

No doubt you do. I'm raining on your Cup victory parade. Here's a celebration of our 6 Cups in a row because all or almost all our prospects will hit their ceiling, and then I tell you that a #9 overall pick has a 50% chance of being a 4th liner or a minor leaguer, and that the average draft has only 16-17 players who get 10 year NHL careers (750+ games), which includes a ton of 4th liners like our own Malhotra and Dominic Moore.

The draft is absolutely NOT a crapshoot. If it were, then why bother having scouts?

Math, dude, math. Good scouts increase your odds, but they dont guarantee anything. A second round pick has a 20% shot of playing in the NHL even on the 4th line. Great scouts may increase that to 30-35%, but the odds are still stacked against them, and a bunch of those 35% will still be Nieves types without much trade value. Bad scouts may reduce the odds to 10%. Long term, 10% vs 30% makes a huge difference, but either way the new draftee in the second round can't be plugged in as a future NHLer.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

You can acquire the very good player over the age of 30 when you're actually ready to compete. Especially if you see him still playing good hockey at age 29/30/31. Removes the risk of having to make a 7 year projection with a lot of money tied up.

So it's ok to pay a 30 year old millions of dollars in three years when they are ready to compete instead of just paying the f***ing 28 year old guy already on your roster who's really very good at hockey AND who will be 31 in three years???? C'mon man. What is this shit?

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

A particular poster has said those exact words.

GO ALL IN!!!

Issue solved