Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXV

[egelband]

Regarding Fox: it's not a universal law but there does seem to be a tendency when a player signs some type of business deal with a consumer related company, his play drops off. Didn't he just become a spokesperson for Dunkin Donuts two weeks ago?

Double whammy. The big contract. The Dunkin’ accord.

 

[GAGLine]

I assume he's looking at Kotkaniemi and thinking "why not me?" If another high draft pick, who also hasn't yet put the points on the board can get a $6m offer sheet followed by an 8x$4.8m contract, why is KK settling at $2.5x2?

Both of those contracts are overpayments, by design. They overpaid on the first contract so Montreal wouldn't match. The second contract is an overpayment in the hopes that in a few years, he will be underpaid.

I doubt any team is going to offer sheet Kakko, and the Rangers aren't going to give him an 8 year deal. For every Kotkaniemi there are dozens of other players who get a show-me bridge deal. Kakko will be one of those players.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Both of those contracts are overpayments, by design. They overpaid on the first contract so Montreal wouldn't match. The second contract is an overpayment in the hopes that in a few years, he will be underpaid.

I doubt any team is going to offer sheet Kakko, and the Rangers aren't going to give him an 8 year deal. For every Kotkaniemi there are dozens of other players who get a show-me bridge deal. Kakko will be one of those players.

is there an example of a 1st or 2nd overall given a "show me bridge deal"?

 

[kovazub94]

Kreider 6.5
Zibanejad 8.5
Vatrano 3
Panarin 11.6
Strome 6
Kakko 2.5
Lafreniere .925
Copp 5
Goodrow 3.6
Motte 2
Hunt .76
Reaves 1.75
Fox 9.5
Lindgren 3
Miller .925
Trouba 8
Jones .925
Schneider .925

Shesterkin 5.66
Kinkaid .825

All of that puts the team right at just under 82 million. Just gotta figure out the dead cap space which is $3.4 million.

You're also missing 13th F and 7 D. Your math doesn't work.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

is there an example of a 1st or 2nd overall given a "show me bridge deal"?

Who knows, but there ARE countless examples of 21 year old players who have struggled to put it all together early in their career and have underwhelming stats then who signed show me bridge deals as a way to bet on themselves. Looking at former 1st/2nd overall picks doesn't really matter that much because they would've earned their contracts based on their play on their ELCs, not on their draft position.

 

[Peltz]

If Kakko has an electric run in the playoffs (which is distinctly possible with his style of play and the amount he's rested compared to other players), he's not taking a show me bridge deal.

 

[Peltz]

It’s also based on us moving Chytil which makes no sense based on his play right now.
He’s controlled next year, and more importantly he appears to be ascending, and has the one thing we really lack which is gamebreaking speed.

Personally, I would let both Copp and Strome walk and move Chytil up. I think he can get it done with Panarin and Kakko.

Then I sign a 3C who is a good faceoff guy for less money than what Copp would cost.

 

[GAGLine]

is there an example of a 1st or 2nd overall given a "show me bridge deal"?

Rasmus Dahlin (1st overall 2018) got 3 years @ 6 mil.
Nolan Patrick (2nd overall 2017) got 1 year @ $874,125, followed by 2 years @ 1.2 mil.
Patrick Laine (2nd overall 2016) got 2 years @ 6.75 mil, followed by 1 year @ 7.5 mil.
Sam Reinhart (2nd overall 2014) got 2 years @ 3.65 mil, followed by 1 year @ 5.2 mil.
Nail Yakupov (1st overall 2012) got 2 years @ 2.5 mil, followed by 1 year @ 875k.
Ryan Murray (2nd overall 2012) got 2 years @ 2.825 mil, followed by 1 year @ 2.825 mil.
Erik Johnson (1st overall 2006) got 2 years @ 2.6 mil.

Dahlin and Laine both got higher cap hits, but Dahlin was the only one who got more than 2 years on his 2nd contract, and all of them were/will still be RFAs when those contracts end.

Kakko has 54 points in 151 career games. Reinhart didn't make it to the NHL full time until his D+2 season, but he had 140 points in 252 games when he got his 2nd contract. Yakupov had 88 points in 192 games.

I'm expecting Kakko to get a 2 year deal, maybe 3 years, between 2 and 3 mil per year.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

is there an example of a 1st or 2nd overall given a "show me bridge deal"?

Top-3 picks who signed a bridge deal coming off their ELC:
Nolan Patrick
Jonathan Huberdeau
Zach Bogosian
Matt Duchene
Jack Johnson
Alex Galchenyuk
Jason Spezza
Kyle Turris
Jay Bouwmeester
Nathan Horton

 

[JimmyG89]

Sample size for post deadline is getting larger and the numbers are just as good, if not getting better for the Rangers.

58.21% of the xGF%, which is 4th in the league. 58.79% of the CF%, also 4th in the league. Oddly enough, the results have been underwhelming, only 51.13% of the GF% in that time. So, dominating the game at 5v5, but the in game results are closer than what the expectations should be.

The culprit is a 2nd worst 5v5 SV% in that same timeframe. .871 SV% at ES. Only the Capitals are getting worse 5v5 goaltending since the deadline.

The lineup will get even better with Kakko back soon. If Shesterkin reestablishes himself over the next three weeks, there is really a chance for a special season.

 

[Fitzy]

Rasmus Dahlin (1st overall 2018) got 3 years @ 6 mil.
Nolan Patrick (2nd overall 2017) got 1 year @ $874,125, followed by 2 years @ 1.2 mil.
Patrick Laine (2nd overall 2016) got 2 years @ 6.75 mil, followed by 1 year @ 7.5 mil.
Sam Reinhart (2nd overall 2014) got 2 years @ 3.65 mil, followed by 1 year @ 5.2 mil.
Nail Yakupov (1st overall 2012) got 2 years @ 2.5 mil, followed by 1 year @ 875k.
Ryan Murray (2nd overall 2012) got 2 years @ 2.825 mil, followed by 1 year @ 2.825 mil.
Erik Johnson (1st overall 2006) got 2 years @ 2.6 mil.

Dahlin and Laine both got higher cap hits, but Dahlin was the only one who got more than 2 years on his 2nd contract, and all of them were/will still be RFAs when those contracts end.

Kakko has 54 points in 151 career games. Reinhart didn't make it to the NHL full time until his D+2 season, but he had 140 points in 252 games when he got his 2nd contract. Yakupov had 88 points in 192 games.

I'm expecting Kakko to get a 2 year deal, maybe 3 years, between 2 and 3 mil per year.

Yeah. It's not ideal but that's where we are at.

Some posters have lamented the idea of a potential offer sheet coming in and nabbing the kid. I still think Kakko has a lot of potential to be a solid two-way 2nd line forward, but if someone comes in with a Kotkaniemi type offer sheet- well- you have to consider taking the compensation.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Yeah. It's not ideal but that's where we are at.

Some posters have lamented the idea of a potential offer sheet coming in and nabbing the kid. I still think Kakko has a lot of potential to be a solid two-way 2nd line forward, but if someone comes in with a Kotkaniemi type offer sheet- well- you have to consider taking the compensation.

Only getting a first for Kakko would be terrible. Like
Mind numbingly stupid. We look at his counting stats as if they’re the only thing that matters, but he’s a positive possession player, and looked ready to break out before getting hurt. He breaks out on another team and you think the amount of whining this board does about buch is obsessive… just wait.

 

[JohnC]

A 1st and 3rd for Kakko would be a pretty brutal ROI for a 2nd overall.

 

[B17 Apricots]

People forget just how incredible prospects Lafrenière and Kakko actually were. This topic has been beaten to death, you can point to a number of things that make their situation a bit more unique than other comparable top picks but don't forget, despite a bit of disappointment so far (I think in large part no fault of their own) Lafrenière was one of the best kids to come out of juniors in YEARS. Don't downplay it, he was that f***ing good. Kakko was amongst the cream of the crop for Finnish kids. He was right there with Barkov, Laine.. he was a tier above Poolparty, Rantanen, etc.

The historically low usage obviously plays a big part, that's understandable considering the players ahead of them on the depth chart. Coming in as teenagers with a coach telling them to simplify their game and not to do the things that made them incredible high end prospects was a legitimate issue. They need to unlearn that nonsense and go back to being creative game breaking talents. We've seen Laf try moves and make plays this year that honestly I'm not sure he attempted to try once under DQ.

Give it some time, let them get consistent top 6 minutes they should still become high end point per game players

 

[bobbop]

Rasmus Dahlin (1st overall 2018) got 3 years @ 6 mil.
Nolan Patrick (2nd overall 2017) got 1 year @ $874,125, followed by 2 years @ 1.2 mil.
Patrick Laine (2nd overall 2016) got 2 years @ 6.75 mil, followed by 1 year @ 7.5 mil.
Sam Reinhart (2nd overall 2014) got 2 years @ 3.65 mil, followed by 1 year @ 5.2 mil.
Nail Yakupov (1st overall 2012) got 2 years @ 2.5 mil, followed by 1 year @ 875k.
Ryan Murray (2nd overall 2012) got 2 years @ 2.825 mil, followed by 1 year @ 2.825 mil.
Erik Johnson (1st overall 2006) got 2 years @ 2.6 mil.

Dahlin and Laine both got higher cap hits, but Dahlin was the only one who got more than 2 years on his 2nd contract, and all of them were/will still be RFAs when those contracts end.

Kakko has 54 points in 151 career games. Reinhart didn't make it to the NHL full time until his D+2 season, but he had 140 points in 252 games when he got his 2nd contract. Yakupov had 88 points in 192 games.

I'm expecting Kakko to get a 2 year deal, maybe 3 years, between 2 and 3 mil per year.

As I have said a few times previously,I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers preemptively shopped Kakko this off-season. Salary cap is one reason why. Performance through three years is another.

 

[Bondra slapshot]

It's been said before by others too, that Kakko and Lafreniere were league wide consensus picks for their respective spots. These weren't "reach" picks or risky picks, but rather these two were known quantities that showed clear dominance and hit all their benchmarks they needed to in order to garner such praise and confidence. We know historically the Rangers (for whatever reasons) have struggled to steward and develop offensive talent. The common denominator here seems to be more in the Rangers organization in how they always seem to mishandle and misuse prospects than the problem being the prospects themselves

 

[rangers1314]

No KK or Rooney at practice.

45-61 still together.

 

[Fitzy]

A 1st and 3rd for Kakko would be a pretty brutal ROI for a 2nd overall.

It would be.

It would also be a better return than what Philly got for Nolan Patrick, or what the Oilers got for Yakupov.

It's a gamble, either way. If some team offered 6 million for Kakko I don't know how confident I am that he'll turn into a 6 million player quickly.

I wouldn't want to be Drury in that situation, is all I'm saying. We just dealt a former 7th overall pick for a late 2nd.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

On the 32 Thoughts Podcast Elliotte Friedman said he spoke with an NHL coach who said Phil Kessel wasn’t traded before the deadline because the team acquiring him didn’t wanna deal with his Iron Man streak. They said the acquiring team was gonna be fairly deep at forward and would probably have to scratch Kessel here and there which would’ve ended his streak. I wonder if he is referring to the Rangers after they acquired Copp and Motte along with Kakko and Rooney returning shortly thereafter. Makes a lot of sense especially since the Rangers had the cap space and could have acquired Kessel easily for a draft pick.

The whole iron man streak is absolutely ridiculous. If the guy isnt good enough to make the game day lineup then oh well he shouldnt keep playing.

 

[RangerBoy]

As I have said a few times previously,I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers preemptively shopped Kakko this off-season. Salary cap is one reason why. Performance through three years is another.

Shop him for what? The Rangers aren't getting equal value for him. Keep him.

 

[McRanger92]

Shop him for what? The Rangers aren't getting equal value for him. Keep him.

Equal value is relative and it depends on the contract demands from Kakko. The Rangers have every right to squeeze him.

 

[JohnC]

Shop him for what? The Rangers aren't getting equal value for him. Keep him.

Not getting equal value while simultaneously nuking our already pitiful RW depth. It’s a notion that keeps coming up with basically very little logic behind it.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

On the topic of a Kakko OS...I'm thinking anything under $4M probably doesn't even happen because the NYR will match (despite it also being not ideal) and then the offering team burned a bridge for limited reward...will cause the NYR minor cap pain but they can make it work at $4M.

If some team actually signs him to a $4.1-6.2M offersheet (1st and 3rd) it gets interesting. Tough to make Kakko work at that number and retain one of Strome or Copp. NYR have little room to "respond" until the cap goes up. Hands are a bit tied.

Would really hurt. And if I'm Kakko's agent, if the right team came calling, why wouldn't I tell my client to sign it? The opportunities afforded to Kakko, especially PP time are likely better elsewhere...and neither the agent nor Kakko get paid without counting stats. Right or wrong no one gets an 8 year mega deal because their possession numbers are great if they aren't putting up points.

This is the scenario where the "not giving him PP time will save $ on his next contract" argument falls apart. Player and agent will 100% be getting antsy. And the NYR cap situation is leaving them a bit vulnerable right now.

 

[Doctyl]

Is there a team really dumb enough to start an OS war with Dolan’s pocketbook? There would be guaranteed retaliation if Kakko or Laf sign an OS. I could see Montreal throwing money at Laf, but idk who is gonna do it with Kakko.

 

[duhmetreE]

Is there a team really dumb enough to start an OS war with Dolan’s pocketbook? There would be guaranteed retaliation if Kakko or Laf sign an OS. I could see Montreal throwing money at Laf, but idk who is gonna do it with Kakko.

I don't see Gorton doing that even though it'd be spicy