Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXV

[aufheben]

Unless Calgary is snoozing it before the POs they will beat EDM.

That means that we will finish 5th if we lose, 6th if we get a loser point and 7th if we win against Pittsburgh. Should EDM get a point against Calgary we cannot finish lower than 6th.

We will most likely draft a position lower than we finish, i.e. 6th, 7th or 8th. We will get a good kid no matter what, but the upside and potential will probably be a lot higher at 6th than 8th...

That's how Tankathon's board is divided as well, Tier 3 is #3-#6

 

[Shesterkybomb]

You're going to wish you had those dollars available when someone who is actually worth it shakes loose.

He's been over a point a game since he hit the league, even on a John tortorella team. We would have to go back 10 years to find a 80 point player in new York. If he isn't worth investing in when cap wont bre an issue for us for a very long time then I don't know what to say

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Panarin makes no sense for a team in the early stages of long and deliberate rebuild, which is what the Rangers are attempting to do. This really is about instant gratification for some people. Listening to Dan Rosen between periods yesterday, even the hiring of a new president is going to filtered through the concept of the rebuild. The Rangers are looking for someone who is not going to interrupt the existing structure. They’re not looking for someone who is going to bring in ‘his people’ and overhaul the current setup. They want someone who can run interference for the GM, and keep ownership at bay. Sounded like JD was the ideal candidate.

It's not instant gratification, it's getting elite talent without giving up picks or prospects on a team that hasn't drafted many quality wingers.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

He's been over a point a game since he hit the league, even on a John tortorella team. We would have to go back 10 years to find a 80 point player in new York. If he isn't worth investing in when cap wont bre an issue for us for a very long time then I don't know what to say

Whats he going to look like 2 years from now? 4 years from now?

Someone better and younger will shake loose, they always do. It'll be via trade but thats fine, thats why you have the gazillion assets.

 

[RGY]

Not signing Panarin for next year. Siging him for the following year and the one after that and the one after that. That takes him to age 31/32. My beliefe is he will still be producing at an elite level through the first 4 years of his deal. The final 3 will be good but not elite. Year 3/4 is where i see this team becoming a legit contender.

The Rangers have two more 1st round picks. They may end up with 3-4 when its all said and done. That is adding to the already (6) 1st round picks from the last 3 draft years. 8-10 1st round picks over 4 years. Who is the last franchise that was able to accumulate that? Ive said it before, if we have not come out on the right end of this with talent and depth to turn this around by the 2020-2021 season then our management and scouting department failed. Right now some here are too draft pick and prospect happy. Its not enough to have even just 8 1st round picks over 4 drafts. Forget all the other rounds where you might find a diamond or just a career NHL player. At some point these kids need established talent to play with. Mika Zibanejad isnt enough. Kreider isnt enough (if they re-sign him).

Otherwise you throw these kids to the wolves, they get bullied every night (and i dont just mean physically), and they never develop. They experience a losing culture too long and it becomes toxic. They get discouraged. They become less confident. Quinn’s message and system gets lost.

Howden, Chytil, Andersson are already here. Kravtsov could be here next season. When do we start helping the kids that are already here instead of trying to aim for the 1st overall pick via a Lottery System? Do we just waste their development by not giving them the best chance to succeed?

Hire Yzerman.
Have a great draft.
Sign Panarin.
Re-Sign Kreider.

Keep moving forward.

 

[DutchShamrock]

The defense is a major concern. We have the summer of 2021 earmarked as a high point when Smith, Staal and Shattenkirk are gone. Skjei is trade bait around here. Pionk wore his welcome out. ADA took some steps forward but he needs to solidify the mental side before we can rely on him long term.

That is one legit NHL defenseman with Skjei and one we can reasonably project as a mainstay with ADA. One pair that no one wants as the top, probably your 3rd on a contender.

Where is the top 4 for this Panarin era that we can easily project playoff contention? Fox is penciled in our lineup and he is in college and owned by another organization. Miller has played d for 4 years, and for all of his promise, he is not a top 4 NHLer for another 4 years at best. Hajek has promise, but he's barely proven as a regular let alone top 4.

Who is playing defense and getting the puck to Panarin? Our forward prospects aren't proven but at least they are getting games, making strides and fulfilling at least some potential. The future defense is behind on the development curve and honestly, we haven't even drafted our top pair. And don't forget that defense takes longer to develop.

No one is even debating the talent and production of Panarin in those 4 years. The doubt is with our core. Where is the top 4 to compliment an elite free agent? Who is on the blue line to help get this team to the post season?

 

[Vitto79]

I’m in the sign Panarin camp but scared I’m wrong lol

Also sign Kreider. Play kids

Next year they can still play vets Shatty , Smith , Staal but year after or deadline try and move cause the Lindgren , Hajek should be ready .... Skjei , DeAngelo Back for sure .... if Fox arrives Pionk goes

 

[RangerBoy]

Panarin is 27. He has 3 prime years left. The Rangers are full of young players trying to find their way around the NHL. More young players are coming. More draft picks are coming.

By the time those players are ready and the Rangers put their entire team together, Panarin becomes an albatross on their cap. Good luck moving that contract.

 

[Edge]

I guess at the end of the day, I also find the projections of getting Panarin for the year beyond next and the year beyond that to still be an awkward fit.

Those are still very young teams. In theory better than this year’s team, but still pretty young. That’s the whole transition period I think we keep glossing over between basement dweller and top tier contender.

Even if every single thing falls into place at an extremely generous pace, I still feel like it’s a forced fit that relies heavily on best case scenarios.

At the end of the day, the Rangers are going to do what they’re going to do. But I continue to not feel this.

 

[Dijock94]

I’m getting a bit tired of the whole Panarin argument as well. Everyone was dying to finally rebuild this team the right way, but it seems a lot of fans don’t truly have the patience to see this thing through the right way. Signing Panarin is the old Rangers way of finding your elite talent in free agency. Overpaying for it, and being angry when the guy can’t live up to the money we gave him.

 

[DaBadGuy7]

I’m getting a bit tired of the whole Panarin argument as well. Everyone was dying to finally rebuild this team the right way, but it seems a lot of fans don’t truly have the patience to see this thing through the right way. Signing Panarin is the old Rangers way of finding your elite talent in free agency. Overpaying for it, and being angry when the guy can’t live up to the money we gave him.

Pretty much, Panarin’s talent is unquestioned, but imo he’s a piece I would’ve wanted a few years back when the Rangers will had aspirations for a Cup. I just don’t see him fitting a re-build, look how he’s sulking in CBJ, you think he will enjoy playing for a team that will be a lottery team next season even if he wants to live in NYC.

 

[Dijock94]

Pretty much, Panarin’s talent is unquestioned, but imo he’s a piece I would’ve wanted a few years back when the Rangers will had aspirations for a Cup. I just don’t see him fitting a re-build, look how he’s sulking in CBJ, you think he will enjoy playing for a team that will be a lottery team next season even if he wants to live in NYC.

I agree. But it’s not even where our team is for me it’s our history of free agent signings. It’s a long list of constant failures, yet every single year you can read about how this years top free agent will be different. I just don’t understand why we don’t learn.

 

[Good Intentions]

For those projecting Panarin five years down the line, or three years, or even one year for that matter - you can state that you know what he'll be, but you don't know. Too many factors, too much time.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Sign Panarin.
Re-Sign Kreider.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Whats he going to look like 2 years from now? 4 years from now?

Someone better and younger will shake loose, they always do. It'll be via trade but thats fine, thats why you have the gazillion assets.

Maybe he is a hart trophy candidate in 4 years? You are assuming he gets worse but maybe he gets better, neither of us can predict the future but his career to date shows there is a more likely chance of him scoring 70 points in 4 years than not. All things you do have risk in this game, but his is a calculated risk. The problem with the anti Panarin sentiment is that the cap continues to escalate, for him right now to be worth 9.5 mill he needs to get 70-80 points. In 5 years from now that point total likely looks like 50-60 as his percentage of the cap will continue to get smaller. If he starts out at around 13 percent and ends up at 9 it really wont hurt us.

 

[Matt4776]

Maybe he is a hart trophy candidate in 4 years? You are assuming he gets worse but maybe he gets better, neither of us can predict the future but his career to date shows there is a more likely chance of him scoring 70 points in 4 years than not. All things you do have risk in this game, but his is a calculated risk. The problem with the anti Panarin sentiment is that the cap continues to escalate, for him right now to be worth 9.5 mill he needs to get 70-80 points. In 5 years from now that point total likely looks like 50-60 as his percentage of the cap will continue to get smaller. If he starts out at around 13 percent and ends up at 9 it really wont hurt us.

I don't see how this is a calculated risk given that we are at least 3 years away from seriously competing.

 

[Matt4776]

Not signing Panarin for next year. Siging him for the following year and the one after that and the one after that. That takes him to age 31/32. My beliefe is he will still be producing at an elite level through the first 4 years of his deal. The final 3 will be good but not elite. Year 3/4 is where i see this team becoming a legit contender.

The Rangers have two more 1st round picks. They may end up with 3-4 when its all said and done. That is adding to the already (6) 1st round picks from the last 3 draft years. 8-10 1st round picks over 4 years. Who is the last franchise that was able to accumulate that? Ive said it before, if we have not come out on the right end of this with talent and depth to turn this around by the 2020-2021 season then our management and scouting department failed. Right now some here are too draft pick and prospect happy. Its not enough to have even just 8 1st round picks over 4 drafts. Forget all the other rounds where you might find a diamond or just a career NHL player. At some point these kids need established talent to play with. Mika Zibanejad isnt enough. Kreider isnt enough (if they re-sign him).

Otherwise you throw these kids to the wolves, they get bullied every night (and i dont just mean physically), and they never develop. They experience a losing culture too long and it becomes toxic. They get discouraged. They become less confident. Quinn’s message and system gets lost.

Howden, Chytil, Andersson are already here. Kravtsov could be here next season. When do we start helping the kids that are already here instead of trying to aim for the 1st overall pick via a Lottery System? Do we just waste their development by not giving them the best chance to succeed?

Hire Yzerman.
Have a great draft.
Sign Panarin.
Re-Sign Kreider.

Keep moving forward.

This is astonishing to me. You acknowledge we aren't going to be a contender until years 3-4. You acknowledge he will no longer be elite (and accordingly not worth the massive cap hit he'll carry) in 3-4 years. Yet, you still want to sign him and re-sign Kreider, who will likely also get a 7 year deal?

It's one thing to be (in my view) overly optimistic about how fast we'll turn the corner, or be naive about how long Panarin will be elite for. But, and I mean in this in the nicest way possible, your line of thinking is absolutely astonishing to me.

 

[RGY]

People talk here like the defense will never improve during Panarin’s time here. The same arguments for not signing him can be made for signing him.

His cap hit % of the team cap will reduce each year. Again if the team is not competitive by year 3/4 of his contract then Management and Scouting has failed. That is year 4/5 of the Rebuild. That means most of our prospects did not pan out, we did not move some of our young assets in a trade to acquire a piece to fit a need (such as defense), and they never added a defenseman or two to help stabilize it. Year 3 of his contract. That means 2 Offseasons went by and the team had no progress in any of those areas. Lindgren/Hajek/Rykov/Reunanen/Keane/Miller/Lundkvist - not even 2 of them emerged as solid defenseman to add to ADA and Skjei.

People also say well someone else will be available next year or the following. Teams will just trade us an ELITE player. So we will simply hope another ELITE player becomes available to add to our young nucleus.

The problem here is, and this is not for all, but the problem is some here fear getting Panarin may push this team to a playoff spot too soon, ruining their chance of getting the lottery pick next season. They use the excuse that the camp that wants to sign Panarin is impatient and wants to accelerate the rebuild. But that is not the case. It is a move to run parallel with the Rebuild. To run parallel wih the young kids development. We have (4) key young forwards with potential. I see it as enabling them to become the best they can be. Keeping them in the right environment and culture. You can only lose so much while keeping these kids aligned before the culture becomes toxic and damaged.

 

[RGY]

This is astonishing to me. You acknowledge we aren't going to be a contender until years 3-4. You acknowledge he will no longer be elite (and accordingly not worth the massive cap hit he'll carry) in 3-4 years. Yet, you still want to sign him and re-sign Kreider, who will likely also get a 7 year deal?

It's one thing to be (in my view) overly optimistic about how fast we'll turn the corner, or be naive about how long Panarin will be elite for. But, and I mean in this in the nicest way possible, your line of thinking is absolutely astonishing to me.

I did not say he would no longer be elite in years 3 and 4. I said years 5-7. And i said he will still be a very good player for this team. His production will still be there. He will still be effective for the team as a whole. That is my belief.

People can feel otherwise. I could be wrong, they could be wrong. No one can know what will happen. Every free agent or trade acquistion is a risk.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I’m getting a bit tired of the whole Panarin argument as well. Everyone was dying to finally rebuild this team the right way, but it seems a lot of fans don’t truly have the patience to see this thing through the right way. Signing Panarin is the old Rangers way of finding your elite talent in free agency. Overpaying for it, and being angry when the guy can’t live up to the money we gave him.

Not at all, actually it's quite the opposite. The old thinking was to use one method to build the team, through acquiring veteran players via trade or ufa. Had they bolstered that with a proper draft there wouldnt have been a problem but we stole from tomorrow to win today. You have to acquire players through all avenues to have a proper rebuild. Getting Panarin without giving assets up is a smart decision because it adds a younger player today and doesn't hurt tomorrow because we have cap space we aren't using as the next 5 or 6 years we have a ton of it due to Hank, Smith, Staal and Shattenkirk ride off into the sunset. The old thinking was wrong, we need to use all avenues to get the team better without sacrificing future assets.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I don't see how this is a calculated risk given that we are at least 3 years away from seriously competing.

Ya and he will still be here. What's the problem? Do you seriously think Panarin is gonna be a bad hockey player in 4 years? He wont be 28 until October.

 

[aufheben]

The most recent comparable for a Rangers UFA signing would have to be Gaborik, no? 27-year-old forward. Gaborik also had way, way more mileage than Panarin. 500 GP, and he missed almost all of is final season in Minnesota due to injury. Panarin has only 321 GP, without a scratch, and his production has been remarkably consistent.

Just food for thought, I'm still not really sure.

 

[RGY]

We signed Gaborik during a time where we had even less direction perhaps. We were transitioning from the Jagr regime with a less promising prospect pool. We knew we had an emerging Henrik Lundqvist but we still had just as many question marks.

I like the situation now that we would be bringing Panarin into.

 

[DutchShamrock]

People talk here like the defense will never improve during Panarin’s time here. The same arguments for not signing him can be made for signing him.

His cap hit % of the team cap will reduce each year. Again if the team is not competitive by year 3/4 of his contract then Management and Scouting has failed. That is year 4/5 of the Rebuild. That means most of our prospects did not pan out, we did not move some of our young assets in a trade to acquire a piece to fit a need (such as defense), and they never added a defenseman or two to help stabilize it. Year 3 of his contract. That means 2 Offseasons went by and the team had no progress in any of those areas. Lindgren/Hajek/Rykov/Reunanen/Keane/Miller/Lundkvist - not even 2 of them emerged as solid defenseman to add to ADA and Skjei.

There's a lot to unpack with your post but I'm just going to address your first point. I'm not saying zero prospects emerge or players don't improve in 4 years. I'm saying the trajectory of a defensive prospect is longer than 1, 2 or 3 years for a draftee. And if you are looking for a defensively sound, 20+ minute a night top 4, four years is probably the bet.

Seth Jones was taken in 2013 4th overall. He wasn't a #1 dman until 2016 when he was traded into that position. He didn't thrive there until the following season. We are talking about a top flight, blue chip defender, probably as safe a bet as a draftee and it took him 3-4 seasons to be that guy. Now we are looking at our pool of lesser pedigree and expecting someone to exceed that trajectory. Its labeled as a failure of drafting and development to not be ready sooner than a Seth Jones.

Miller is at D+1 and his *ceiling* is at top pair. Not his expectation or likeliness, his everything-breaks-right ceiling. Lindgren is 3rd pair likely, 2nd pair ceiling. Hajek might be a top 4, reliable guy. Rykov, who could sign here, maybe stay in the K, so let's not get ahead of ourselves, could be top 4 but that was Bear gloves' projection. Kean is still in college, how can we peg him top 4 inside four years? Lundkvist, like Rykov, has not even played in NA. Here's another name: Thomas Chabot. Hits the ground running from our perspective but he's a 2015 draft pick. He's doing great, but it wasn't overnight. This is the best case scenario for our crop, D+3 year as top 4 regular. But we need lightning in a bottle twice.

You dismiss the possibility of finding a Panarin through trade or UFA in the future but then you think the front office will be failures if they don't find solutions on defense through the same means.

I see your plan as being rooted in best case scenarios, good fortune and convenient contradictions. I like Panarin, but there is a foundation still to be built and short cutting with UFA does not have a successful track record.

 

[DutchShamrock]

We signed Gaborik during a time where we had even less direction perhaps. We were transitioning from the Jagr regime with a less promising prospect pool. We knew we had an emerging Henrik Lundqvist but we still had just as many question marks.

I like the situation now that we would be bringing Panarin into.

This is inaccurate and disingenuous. Dubinsky, Callahan, Anisimov, Prospal, Drury, Avery, Boyle and Prust on the bottom 6. Roszival, Girardi, Staal, Del Zotto and Redden isn't stellar, but at least steady and proven at the time. And 28 year old Lundqvist made you a legit contender. Gaborik made sense in that context.

And he signed for 5 years.