Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXV

[Edge]

Not just probably, he's 28, it's what he is. And this is actually only the 2nd time in his career he's scored 25+ goals.

Within reason. One of the things that I definitely think gets lost in the conversation is the environment in which a player is operating.

Let’s say Kreider was traded to Tampa a few years back. There’s a very good possibility that he’s scoring 35 goals and posting 70 points in that environment.

Does that mean he’s a better player than he is at the 25 goal/55 point level? Probably not, but the environment has him in a different range.

Of course it works the reverse way as well. There are guys who wold have a very different ranges here than they do in Toronto, or Winnipeg, or Tampa. Does that mean they’ve declined as players? Or did the environment change?

So even when there’s a pattern, environment and context has to be a little bit of a factor as well.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Kreider's 25+ goals have come in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

He probably breaks that mark last year if the blood clots don't happen. This is who he is.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Within reason. One of the things that I definitely think gets lost in the conversation is the environment in which a player is operating.

Let’s say Kreider was traded to Tampa a few years back. There’s a very good possibility that he’s scoring 35 goals and posting 70 points in that environment.

Does that mean he’s a better player than he is at the 25 goal/55 point level? Probably not, but the environment has him in a different range.

Of course it works the reverse way as well. There are guys who wold have a very different ranges here than they do in Toronto, or Winnipeg, or Tampa. Does that mean they’ve declined as players? Or did the environment change?

So even when there’s a pattern, environment and context has to be a little bit of a factor as well.

I just mean number-wise, you don't need anymore context than that. The fact is, he's scored 25+ two times. No exoneration is needed without indictment. I like him, he's good. He' not as good as some say.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Scarily enough, that's a team that could use AV's high octane offense for a year or two to bolster everything...

If GM's are smart, they'll realize that they cannot use AV's player input because he is an abhorrent talent evaluator. However, he's a good offensive coach that works well in the right situations

Keith Yandle would love that

 

[duhmetreE]

I just mean number-wise, you don't need anymore context than that. The fact is, he's scored 25+ two times. No exoneration is needed without indictment. I like him, he's good. He' not as good as some say.

His numbers aren't what make him good. He creates a lot of space and drives the play for his linemates.

 

[Beacon]

I can't tell if you're being serious.

He has a lot of things to work on. His stickhandling is possibly the worst I've ever seen in the NHL and that's not hyperbole. His IQ/processing has left me wanting. He has good wheels, how often has he used them? His shot? he showed good hands when he went coast2coast but that was 2 plays. Defensive play? Effort?

From what I remember, Chytil stayed so he could play here, as opposed to a Czech league. Development wise, Chytil made more sense staying here. KHL is second only to the NHL. So, Kravtsov going back to Russia was a non-issue.


No... It's based on the fact that he's a better player and prospect.

Speculation and hypotheticals are great... If Kravtsov was in the AHL he look insane there.

You have no idea what you're talking about. You look at a guy play against the best opposition in the world and compare him to a guy playing against second rate opposition. The easier the opposition, the easier to look good. I can look like Bobby Orr if my opposition are 6 year old girls, while Buchnevich would look awful facing All Stars (who tried hard).

I remember watching Redden in Hartford, and he looked like Lidstrom against the AHL opposition.

All the issues you think Chytil has, he had none of them in the AHL. He was great at stickgandling, reading plays, you name it. Weak opponents make you look good. If Kravtsov were in the NHL this year, youd be calling him a bust now. He's only 3 months younger, yet was so far away from the NHL that the Rangers told him not to bother coming to preseason and head straight to Russia without even trying here, as he desperately wanted.

But Kravtsov faced easy opposition, so he looked good, just as Redden looked great in the AHL, just as Vinni looks amazing there, just as Buchnevich seemed like a monster when he played for Severstal in the KHL, just as Bereglazov looked great in the KHL.

You cannot look at 2 players and say, "A makes this move and B doesnt" if they dont face equivalent opposition.

Kravtsov may turn out better, who knows, but at this point hes clearly not a superior prospect. As I already said, last summer the Rangers believed Chytil is an every day NHLer, while Kravtsov shouldn't even bother with going through the preseason.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

You have no idea what you're talking about. You look at a guy play against the best opposition in the world and compare him to a guy playing against second rate opposition. The easier the opposition, the easier to look good. I can look like Bobby Orr if my opposition are 6 year old girls, while Buchnevich would look awful facing All Stars (who tried hard).

I remember watching Redden in Hartford, and he looked like Lidstrom against the AHL opposition.

All the issues you think Chytil has, he had none of them in the AHL. He was great at stickgandling, reading plays, you name it. Weak opponents make you look good. If Kravtsov were in the NHL this year, youd be calling him a bust now. He's only 3 months younger, yet was so far away from the NHL that the Rangers told him not to bother coming to preseason and head straight to Russia without even trying here, as he desperately wanted.

But Kravtsov faced easy opposition, so he looked good, just as Redden looked great in the AHL, just as Vinni looks amazing there, just as Buchnevich seemed like a monster when he played for Severstal in the KHL, just as Bereglazov looked great in the KHL.

You cannot look at 2 players and say, "A makes this move and B doesnt" if they dont face equivalent opposition.

Kravtsov may turn out better, who knows, but at this point hes clearly not a superior prospect. As I already said, last summer the Rangers believed Chytil is an every day NHLer, while Kravtsov shouldn't even bother with going through the preseason.

Kravstov was under contract in the KHL, he was never going to have a shot at making the team. Doesn’t make Chytil better than him.

 

[WesMcCauley]

I just hope Quinn gives Andersson the chance to develop his offensive game so he has a shot at becoming a legit 2nd line center in the future. Complete "waste" of a top 7 pick if we accept Andersson as a bottom 6 center and dont try to develop him offensively.

He has the talent to produce solid numbers when he hits his prime but he will never do that if Quinn doesnt give him more offensive responsibility the next 2-3 seasons.

 

[Beacon]

Kravstov was under contract in the KHL, he was never going to have a shot at making the team. Doesn’t make Chytil better than him.

That's not true. Both he and the Rangers' senior scout Bobrov believed he could come for the 2018-19 season.

Kravtsov anxious to come to North America

"Kravtsov said whether he chooses to come to North America this fall “depends on how I go through this process of the development camp, what the coach is seeing, what the expectations are from me coming into this year,’’ and added, “I’ll listen to them and listen to their advice.’’

 

[duhmetreE]

You have no idea what you're talking about. You look at a guy play against the best opposition in the world and compare him to a guy playing against second rate opposition. The easier the opposition, the easier to look good. I can look like Bobby Orr if my opposition are 6 year old girls, while Buchnevich would look awful facing All Stars (who tried hard).

I remember watching Redden in Hartford, and he looked like Lidstrom against the AHL opposition.

All the issues you think Chytil has, he had none of them in the AHL. He was great at stickgandling, reading plays, you name it. Weak opponents make you look good. If Kravtsov were in the NHL this year, youd be calling him a bust now. He's only 3 months younger, yet was so far away from the NHL that the Rangers told him not to bother coming to preseason and head straight to Russia without even trying here, as he desperately wanted.

But Kravtsov faced easy opposition, so he looked good, just as Redden looked great in the AHL, just as Vinni looks amazing there, just as Buchnevich seemed like a monster when he played for Severstal in the KHL, just as Bereglazov looked great in the KHL.

You cannot look at 2 players and say, "A makes this move and B doesnt" if they dont face equivalent opposition.

Kravtsov may turn out better, who knows, but at this point hes clearly not a superior prospect. As I already said, last summer the Rangers believed Chytil is an every day NHLer, while Kravtsov shouldn't even bother with going through the preseason.

You will see the difference once Kravtsov comes here.

 

[Ola]

Where are we at?
We have 75 pts. Detroit has 74 and Buffalo has 72. All three have 2 games left.

We have the lowest ROW which is the tie-breaker.

Remaining schedule:
We play CBJ at home on Friday and Pittsburgh away on Saturday.

Detroit play Pittsburgh away tonight and Buffalo at home on Saturday.

Buffalo plays Ottawa at home tonight and Detroit away on Saturday.

Scenarios
If we lose both a lot of -- good things -- can happen. We should lose both. It was amazing that we could lose to Ottawa. Had luck on our side, or the ref's.

Buffalo needs to gain 3 pts on us. For f***s sake, they just cannot lose to Ottawa. Can they? They have their effin NHL roster in place, Eichel and everyone. They must have some kind of sense to finish the season strong after the nightmare last month they have had. Ottawa is beyond bad. Seriously?

If Buffalo beats Ottawa, they only need 1 pt against Detroit to get past us in the standings.

Detroit only need one point against either Pittsburgh or Buffalo to get past us in the standings.

Buffalo beats Ottawa and Detroit-Buffalo goes to OT, or Buffalo wins with Detroit taking Pittsburgh to OT -- and we finish 4th from the bottom.

The Draft lottery

So where does that put us:
No 1. 9.5%
No 2. 9.6%
No 3. 9.7%
Top 3: 28.8%

No 4. 2.8%
No 5. 26.1%
Top 5: 57.5%

No 6. 34.0%
No 7. 8.3%

Most probable pick is still No 6, but the odds to get a top 5 pick does get significantly higher.

 

[BBKers]

Good job Ola. I was just going to put together a similar post but you saved me that effort - thanx

 

[SA16]

I didn’t realize Detroit and Buffalo play each other. That’s really big actually.

 

[Ola]

I didn’t realize Detroit and Buffalo play each other. That’s really big actually.

Yeah, talk about a possible 3 point game!!

Seriously though, who knows how things shake out. The picture should clear after the lottery. But it does feel like pick 6 is a lot better than pick 7 from my POV, and that is the most probable pick for us if we finish bottom 4-5.

Hughes, Turcotte, Podkolzin, Kakko, Zegras and Byram. That is my top 6, then you have the Canadian kids, Cozens and Dach. Boldy. Give Clarke the 6th pick, can choose between a few guys. Not just take what is left of the top talents.

 

[iamitter]

Knowing our luck, we'll lose our last two, but Detroit will as well and buffalo will lose to ottawa (and obviously beat Detroit).

That or 6th overall will end up being the pick that wins 1st.

 

[RangerBoy]

Chris Kreider is what he is. He missed a few games recently with back and hip issues. He had a hamstring injury earlier. He is invisible. He has 1 goal in his last 15 games. That was an empty net goal against the Blues. You have to look very carefully to see if he is playing. He had 20 goals at the New Year. You would have thought he would get at least 35 because he was pace for 40 plus goals. He has 7 goals since December 30.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Chris Kreider is what he is. He missed a few games recently with back and hip issues. He had a hamstring injury earlier. He is invisible. He has 1 goal in his last 15 games. That was an empty net goal against the Blues. You have to look very carefully to see if he is playing. He had 20 goals at the New Year. You would have thought he would get at least 35 because he was pace for 40 plus goals. He has 7 goals since December 30.

I like him, but he doesnt bring it every night like say a Zibanajad does.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

That's not true. Both he and the Rangers' senior scout Bobrov believed he could come for the 2018-19 season.

Kravtsov anxious to come to North America

"Kravtsov said whether he chooses to come to North America this fall “depends on how I go through this process of the development camp, what the coach is seeing, what the expectations are from me coming into this year,’’ and added, “I’ll listen to them and listen to their advice.’’

And that information is incorrect. According to their CBA, players in the KHL can only buy out their own contract without needing team approval if they request it 18 months before the contract expires. Kravtsov had 10 months remaining on his KHL contract when he was picked in the draft. He could not buy out his contract or walk away from his team since the IIHF would have intervened. The NHL and KHL, despite not having a transfer agreement, have an agreement to respect contracts in the other league.

The only way he could have gotten out of his contract, is if Traktor would release him. Traktor did not want to, and for good reason. They would lose his KHL rights by doing so. Traktor did offer him a new contract for the same length, with a higher salary to reward him for his play in the 2017-18 season.


Regarding him not coming over once the team was eliminated: Traktor did not want to release Kravtsov once the season was over, because in this situation they would also lose his rights. The situation with Kuznetsov in 2014 was brought up by some but that was completely different with Kuznetsov being older and it being just 1 year since the NHL agreed to a new CBA. The rights to players are valuable with a lockout looming. Kravtsov holds value either for the team as a player, or in a trade with another team in the event of a lockout (Which isn't unlikely).

 

[NYRKING30]

We’re a very demanding bunch on these kids, and the advent of more websites and social media feeds only feeds into our impatience and anxiety. Both positive and negative opinions take on lives of their own and spread so quickly.

At the end of the day, whether a prospects work out or doesn’t work out, there’s going to be an ebb and flow to things. But no one does our young players any favors by pouring on the gas when a player is on a hot streak, or piling on when the same player is on a cold streak.

Exactly. That was the point I was trying to make. Keep an even keel and never get to high or never get to low. When it comes to prospects, theres probably more gray then there is black or white.

 

[LORDE]

Knowing our luck, we'll lose our last two, but Detroit will as well and buffalo will lose to ottawa (and obviously beat Detroit).

That or 6th overall will end up being the pick that wins 1st.

This is exactly our luck

 

[Machinehead]

Detroit has won 6 straight and we're still ahead of them. Just how bad were they?

 

[BBKers]

A scout told me yesterday that he did not consider this years draft having any sure shot “franchise players “. Next year might have “two or even more” he thought. He mentioned that it is not imperative to have a top 3 pick any year to get elite talent, it is getting it the “right year” that counts. Not any news, but interesting if we really tank next season.

 

[NYRKING30]

A scout told me yesterday that he did not consider this years draft having any sure shot “franchise players “. Next year might have “two or even more” he thought. He mentioned that it is not imperative to have a top 3 pick any year to get elite talent, it is getting it the “right year” that counts. Not any news, but interesting if we really tank next season.

I’d rather have the 5th or 6th pick in a draft like this year or next year over having number 1 in 2012 or 2017 for example. Having a high pick does matter though IMO.

 

[Fitzy]

His numbers aren't what make him good. He creates a lot of space and drives the play for his linemates.

I don't know why this hasn't been repeated more.

Kreider does so many things for one player. He fills a bunch of different roles. Obviously you have to see if he signs for the appropriate price tag, but he's almost impossible to replace.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

I want an analytics enthusiast for our next President. People will not like it, and the coach might not like it, but like any other organization you must adapt or die. The league is moving towards advanced stats whether you like it or not, we need a smart progressive thinker who will help us complete our rebuild the right way to make us a team of the future.