How the Rangers can avoid being like the Leafs: Not by avoiding spending $11M on an elite UFA, but avoiding spending $11M+ combined on bad deals like Marleau/Zaitsev/etc.
You can still sign Panarin and just be fine cap-wise in the future. It's the middling player contracts that cause the real damage.
Panarin is an elite UFA worth a big contract. Tavares was an elite UFA worth the money he signed for. Marleau is not a UFA worth $6M+
And it's not like if we miss out on Panarin we should go for Skinner or other big UFAs. Panarin is elite. The others are not. It's either get Panarin or get no-one. Most of us who want Panarin aren't gung-ho on just signing whatever the big UFA is every time.
The Zaitsev contract was obviously a mistake, and it was a mistake to give Marleau 3 years instead of 2. However, those contracts were already on the books when they gave Tavares 11 mil. They didn't need more scoring, at least not enough to spend 11 mil per year on it. They knew they were going to have to pay Matthews, Marner and Nylander. IMO, they would have been better off shoring up the defense and adding a little more grit, and spending less total cap to do it.
That's not meant to be an argument against Panarin, though. We don't have 3 players looking to get huge contracts within the next year. Fitting Panarin under the cap wouldn't be an issue for us. The contract might be a problem in 4 or 5 years, but probably not before then. Will Panarin still be this good when we are ready to contend? Yes, some players continue to be elite into their 30s. Maybe Panarin is one of those players. What I can say for certain is that we will waste at least 2 years of his prime if we sign him.
People like to say that players like this don't come along often, but that isn't really true. There are always opportunities. The question is whether or not the Rangers will be able to take advantage of them. There are a number of teams facing a cap crunch this summer. We might be surprised by some of the names that become available. Two years ago, no one knew that Panarin would be a UFA in 2019. Seguin, Hall and Seth Jones were all traded before they reached UFA age. Tavares became a UFA. Stamkos flirted with being a UFA (he was able to talk to teams during the pre-July 1st window) before re-signing in Tampa. Hell, this is actually the 3rd time Panarin has been available in the last 4 years. First as an undrafted free agent, second as a trade from Chicago, and now third as a UFA.
It's easy to look at our team now and say we could use a guy like Panarin. But will he be a good fit for the team 2 or 3 years from now? We don't know how our center situation is going to shake out. Zib is locked in as the 1C for now, unless someone passes him, but other than Chytil, who projects to be a top 6 center? Kravtsov and Kakko have both played some center in their careers, but is either a center at the NHL level? Maybe one of Andersson or Howden can eventually center the 2nd line, but neither is likely to be more than 50 point, two-way players. It might be that our wings will be set between Kakko, Kravtsov, Buchnevich and Chytil, and what we really need is a 2C. Paying Panarin 11 mil now would make it a lot harder to fill that center spot later, if it comes to it. Or maybe it's not the center situation, but rather the defense, which needs that money.
There are a lot of unknowns right now. Personally, I would rather be patient, see how our prospects develop and see what other opportunities arise. I think Panarin will sign in Florida anyway, so it's probably a moot point.
