Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[DanielBrassard]

Yes, for the same reason I am against extending Kreider. But it's worse to acquire a player because we don't know how he will react. There are a ton of examples of small town guys who come here from smaller markets and just become bad because there is too much for them to do here off ice with their multi-million annual contract. It's a risk worth taking sometimes, but this is not that time. I'll be all in favor of the Rangers signing a star UFA when the rest of the pieces are set.

The UFAs must be the last piece of the puzzle, not the first piece which you build around. The very reason we got 1 Cup in 80+ years is that we always rebuild around stars we acquired via trade or UFA instead of building our own. The only time in 80 years that we won the Cup, we did it by drafting Richter, Leetch, Zubov, Amonte, Weight, Kovalev, Turcotte, Nemchinov, etc. True, we also acquired Messier, Graves, Beukeboom in the summer of 1991, and then we traded some youth for vets, but we already had a spectacular core by that point. Leetch, Zubov, Richter, Kovalev, Amonte and Weight were All Stars a total of 28 times (all of them at least 3 times), among many other honors. When we get that kind of young talent, we'll start talking about bringing in a vet like Messier.

Good luck adding that veteran piece when all the youngsters are off their ELC's. It's a different era from the 90's, you can't afford to wait until the kids need their 2nd and 3rd contracts. Need to take advantage before it.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Good luck adding that veteran piece when all the youngsters are off their ELC's. It's a different era from the 90's, you can't afford to wait until the kids need their 2nd and 3rd contracts. Need to take advantage before it.

This.

I don't necessarily disagree with Beacon. In fact, I'm more on the side of agreeing with him, but you also have to sign UFA's (the right ones) alongside. Trouba would be that sort of player, and not Panarin. Of course, all depends on cost also.

 

[Irishguy42]

Wait...so getting UFAs now means that all of these upcoming young ELCs who will hopefully contribute at the NHL are now supplemental pieces to the UFA players we acquire? Getting Panarin or any other UFA doesn't mean we're "building around" them now. Not at all.

Getting a big UFA doesn't mean the young players on the team are now forgotten and relegated to players we aren't building around. You're still building around your young core. You're building around them...with the likes of Panarin. With elite talent.

Support the young talent sooner rather than later or else you will never be able to support them whenever that time arrives that they all apparently reach their ceiling.

Also, why bring up an era where there was no salary cap? Irrelevant to discussion.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Wait...so getting UFAs now means that all of these upcoming young ELCs who will hopefully contribute at the NHL are now supplemental pieces to the UFA players we acquire? Getting Panarin doesn't mean we're "building around" him. Not at all. Getting a UFA like Panarin doesn't mean the young players on the team are now forgotten and relegated to players we aren't building around. You're still building around your young core. You're building around them...with Panarin. With elite talent.

Support the young talent sooner rather than later or else you will never be able to support them whenever that time arrives that they all apparently reach their ceiling.

Also, why bring up an era where there was no salary cap?

I find it hard to believe that spending 11 million dollars on a player is not "building around that player"

 

[SA16]

Wait...so getting UFAs now means that all of these upcoming young ELCs who will hopefully contribute at the NHL are now supplemental pieces to the UFA players we acquire? Getting Panarin doesn't mean we're "building around" him. Not at all. Getting a UFA like Panarin doesn't mean the young players on the team are now forgotten and relegated to players we aren't building around. You're still building around your young core. You're building around them...with Panarin. With elite talent.

Support the young talent sooner rather than later or else you will never be able to support them whenever that time arrives that they all apparently reach their ceiling.

Also, why bring up an era where there was no salary cap?

We wouldn't be building around Panarin regardless because he's a wing. You build around centers and defense and then support them with quality wings. Look at all the top teams in the league...

Matthews/Tavares/Rielly...Bergeron/Krejci/McAvoy...Crosby/Malkin/Letang...Stamkos/Point/Hedman...Duchene/Dubois/Jones...Karlsson/Stastny/Theodore...Hertl/Couture/Burns...Backstrom/Kuznetsov/Carlson.

 

[DanielBrassard]

We wouldn't be building around Panarin regardless because he's a wing. You build around centers and defense and then support them with quality wings. Look at all the top teams in the league...

Matthews/Tavares/Rielly...Bergeron/Krejci/McAvoy...Crosby/Malkin/Letang...Stamkos/Point/Hedman...Duchene/Dubois/Jones...Karlsson/Stastny/Theodore...Hertl/Couture/Burns...Backstrom/Kuznetsov/Carlson.

Panarin isn't even on this list. Clearly not a guy who we would be building around.

 

[Mac n Gs]

There's another really underrated defensive dmen that we're overlooking in free agency this summer. He has great size, is physical, can stick up for his teammates, has a bomb of a slap shot when he can get it off, and really fits that gritty, in-your-face mentality that Quinn wants us to play. Also has great numbers on the PK, which is an area that we drastically need to improve.

His name is Dylan McIlrath.

 

[Tawnos]

Wait...so getting UFAs now means that all of these upcoming young ELCs who will hopefully contribute at the NHL are now supplemental pieces to the UFA players we acquire? Getting Panarin or any other UFA doesn't mean we're "building around" them now. Not at all.

Getting a big UFA doesn't mean the young players on the team are now forgotten and relegated to players we aren't building around. You're still building around your young core. You're building around them...with the likes of Panarin. With elite talent.

Support the young talent sooner rather than later or else you will never be able to support them whenever that time arrives that they all apparently reach their ceiling.

Also, why bring up an era where there was no salary cap? Irrelevant to discussion.

I’ve said this several times in these discussions this year: it’s not enough to wait to be good. You have to anticipate being good.

Which is also something that Gorton has already done once when building a team.

 

[DanielBrassard]

@Tawnos exactly. Zdeno Chara.

 

[Irishguy42]

I’ve said this several times in these discussions this year: it’s not enough to wait to be good. You have to anticipate being good.

Which is also something that Gorton has already done once when building a team.

Which is why you go out and get big players, like Panarin and/or Trouba, now.

Can't wait forever. You need to pull the trigger sooner rather than later or else it will be too late and, more importantly, too expensive.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

@Tawnos exactly. Zdeno Chara.

Not for nothing, but Chia was pulling the strings behind the scenes that summer.

Couldn't be "officially" hired until July 15, but he was a big Chara guy coming from Ottawa.

 

[BKGooner]

There's another really underrated defensive dmen that we're overlooking in free agency this summer. He has great size, is physical, can stick up for his teammates, has a bomb of a slap shot when he can get it off, and really fits that gritty, in-your-face mentality that Quinn wants us to play. Also has great numbers on the PK, which is an area that we drastically need to improve.

His name is Dylan McIlrath.

I like this signing for Hartford. With the influx of youth in the system, someone who can keep AHL lifers from going all Racchi in Youngblood on our kids is a plus.

 

[Beacon]

Good luck adding that veteran piece when all the youngsters are off their ELC's. It's a different era from the 90's, you can't afford to wait until the kids need their 2nd and 3rd contracts. Need to take advantage before it.

That's just bad math. It's also bad hockey analysis. Adding UFAs when the most talented players are all teenagers is nuts. They will either be low-end NHLers or not even in the NHL in the coming year or two. That's bad hockey analysis.

The bad math part is that we have over $38 million coming off the cap in the next 24 months because the aging UFAs are leaving. With the addition of the increased cap, we are looking at something close to $45 opening up. Let's say all our kids do really well and in the summer of 2021 and 2022 we are forced to pay $5 per player on bridge contracts for Chytil, Kravtsov, K'Andre, ADA, Shesterkin plus $8 for Kakko (to get that he'd need to totally explode). That assumes that all of them exceed current expectations, which is impossible. But if it happens, that's $33 of the cap. Skjei and Zib another $10.5. Maybe another $6 for Butcher if he does really well. Let's say Strome, Lemieux, Howden, Lias, Hajek, Rykov, Pionk average another $3 on their bridge. That's another $21. Presumably there will be at least 2 guys who are still on their ELCs: 2020 first or second round pick, Lundkvist, Barron, Keane, whoever. Another $3 for the backup goalie, 13F, 7D. That gets us to around $75 and we have 21 guys under contract. There's still about $10 to sign a UFA.

But the truth is that we'll have a lot more cap space because there's just no way that every single prospect exceeds expectations or even matches them. We will most likely have $15-20 in cap space available for UFAs once all the vets are off the cap and the youth is re-signed.

 

[RGY]

Wait...so getting UFAs now means that all of these upcoming young ELCs who will hopefully contribute at the NHL are now supplemental pieces to the UFA players we acquire? Getting Panarin or any other UFA doesn't mean we're "building around" them now. Not at all.

Getting a big UFA doesn't mean the young players on the team are now forgotten and relegated to players we aren't building around. You're still building around your young core. You're building around them...with the likes of Panarin. With elite talent.

Support the young talent sooner rather than later or else you will never be able to support them whenever that time arrives that they all apparently reach their ceiling.

Also, why bring up an era where there was no salary cap? Irrelevant to discussion.

Its a lot of money to spend on one player and then say you are not building around that player, but I get where you are coming from.

It really comes down to how Gorton/Quinn see this team down the middle the next 2-3 years. Is it Zibanejad-Chytil-Howden? Is Chytil enough there? Does he eventually slide to the wing anyway? Does Lias become more of a player? I mean its the trajectory they see that will determine if they feel comfortable to spend the money on an elite winger. An elite center may not become available when you think it is a better time to add next offseason or the following one. Who are the centers in those free agent classes? And are they at a reasonable age?

The other thing is we still dont know what happens with the draft. What if Dallas does make the WCF and then loses there. I think that puts us as #26 in addition to the WPG pick. Could we make a package of those two picks plus a 2nd to get into the Top 10 and grab a center?

Just dont think we will have an idea of the direction until after the playoffs, likely at the draft when they determine if they will keep Kreider or not, and from there what they do at the draft. Same goes for Skjei.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

We wouldn't be building around Panarin regardless because he's a wing. You build around centers and defense and then support them with quality wings. Look at all the top teams in the league...

Matthews/Tavares/Rielly...Bergeron/Krejci/McAvoy...Crosby/Malkin/Letang...Stamkos/Point/Hedman...Duchene/Dubois/Jones...Karlsson/Stastny/Theodore...Hertl/Couture/Burns...Backstrom/Kuznetsov/Carlson.

I don't agree with your premise at all but for the sake of discussion...

Where do you propose that we get that 2nd center and D?

 

[Edge]

Its a lot of money to spend on one player and then say you are not building around that player, but I get where you are coming from.

It really comes down to how Gorton/Quinn see this team down the middle the next 2-3 years. Is it Zibanejad-Chytil-Howden? Is Chytil enough there? Does he eventually slide to the wing anyway? Does Lias become more of a player? I mean its the trajectory they see that will determine if they feel comfortable to spend the money on an elite winger. An elite center may not become available when you think it is a better time to add next offseason or the following one. Who are the centers in those free agent classes? And are they at a reasonable age?

The other thing is we still dont know what happens with the draft. What if Dallas does make the WCF and then loses there. I think that puts us as #26 in addition to the WPG pick. Could we make a package of those two picks plus a 2nd to get into the Top 10 and grab a center?

Just dont think we will have an idea of the direction until after the playoffs, likely at the draft when they determine if they will keep Kreider or not, and from there what they do at the draft. Same goes for Skjei.

I think Dallas in the WCF means it can’t be better than the 28th pick. Once they make it that far, 28 becomes the floor for that pick.

 

[RGY]

That's just bad math. It's also bad hockey analysis. Adding UFAs when the most talented players are all teenagers is nuts. They will either be low-end NHLers or not even in the NHL in the coming year or two. That's bad hockey analysis.

The bad math part is that we have over $38 million coming off the cap in the next 24 months because the aging UFAs are leaving. With the addition of the increased cap, we are looking at something close to $45 opening up. Let's say all our kids do really well and in the summer of 2021 and 2022 we are forced to pay $5 per player on bridge contracts for Chytil, Kravtsov, K'Andre, ADA, Shesterkin plus $8 for Kakko (to get that he'd need to totally explode). That assumes that all of them exceed current expectations, which is impossible. But if it happens, that's $33 of the cap. Skjei and Zib another $10.5. Maybe another $6 for Butcher if he does really well. Let's say Strome, Lemieux, Howden, Lias, Hajek, Rykov, Pionk average another $3 on their bridge. That's another $21. Presumably there will be at least 2 guys who are still on their ELCs: 2020 first or second round pick, Lundkvist, Barron, Keane, whoever. Another $3 for the backup goalie, 13F, 7D. That gets us to around $75 and we have 21 guys under contract. There's still about $10 to sign a UFA.

But the truth is that we'll have a lot more cap space because there's just no way that every single prospect exceeds expectations or even matches them. We will most likely have $15-20 in cap space available for UFAs once all the vets are off the cap and the youth is re-signed.

The last part is the most accurate in that not all prospects will succeed OR we will package multiple assets to fill another hole. You manage the assets vs the cap accordingly. You have to just trust the management staff behind the scenes to b ahead of the ball on that and pull the trigger at the right times.

To me its do they decide to spend the money now on Panarin because they like him and see a fit or do they simple wait and spend it later. They spend it now and I am sure things will fall into place with the cap in the coming years. Like I said, they could turn two players into one who is younger or just one that fills a hole.

 

[RGY]

I think Dallas in the WCF means it can’t be better than the 28th pick. Once they make it that far, 28 becomes the floor for that pick.

You are correct Edge. For some reason i was thinking 26-31, might have been something I was reading with WPG making the 2nd round and getting bounced.

 

[Irishguy42]

Its a lot of money to spend on one player and then say you are not building around that player, but I get where you are coming from.

It really comes down to how Gorton/Quinn see this team down the middle the next 2-3 years. Is it Zibanejad-Chytil-Howden? Is Chytil enough there? Does he eventually slide to the wing anyway? Does Lias become more of a player? I mean its the trajectory they see that will determine if they feel comfortable to spend the money on an elite winger. An elite center may not become available when you think it is a better time to add next offseason or the following one. Who are the centers in those free agent classes? And are they at a reasonable age?

The other thing is we still dont know what happens with the draft. What if Dallas does make the WCF and then loses there. I think that puts us as #26 in addition to the WPG pick. Could we make a package of those two picks plus a 2nd to get into the Top 10 and grab a center?

Just dont think we will have an idea of the direction until after the playoffs, likely at the draft when they determine if they will keep Kreider or not, and from there what they do at the draft. Same goes for Skjei.

Of course we have no idea about the future. That's why you can't really wait, especially in a salary cap world. You can wait a little, but you can't afford to wait even a few years to see if your young talent all reaches their ceilings before making a move. You need to bet on yourself and your future or else you go nowhere.

As for the DAL pick if they get to the WCF and lose, it would be 28th. The only teams below DAL in the standings are western teams (VGK/COL) so any eastern team that loses in the ECF would end up 29th.

 

[RGY]

Of course we have no idea about the future. That's why you can't really wait, especially in a salary cap world. You can wait a little, but you can't afford to wait even a few years to see if your young talent all reaches their ceilings before making a move. You need to bet on yourself and your future or else you go nowhere.

As for the DAL pick if they get to the WCF and lose, it would be 28th. The only teams below DAL in the standings are western teams (VGK/COL) so any eastern team that loses in the ECF would end up 29th.

I just think Panarin is a special talent that you have a chance to get via free agency and ADD to a young forward group with a ton of potential. A ton of talent. Of course, to your point, you are banking on this group developing along the anticipated trajectory to at least some degree. Maybe they dont hit their ceiling but they still become good players. Drafting Kakko really enhanced this group that you could possibly add Panarin to.

If it doesnt happen then so be it.

29th and the WPG pick is 18th? I dont know if those two picks with a 2nd round pick would be enough to jump into the top 10. I look at the teams and what ones would value adding an extra 1st and 2nd to move down? Maybe Buffalo? Maybe Anaheim that needs restock the farm? Buffalo kinda needs to get going. Same with Edmonton. But likely wont be enough unless you add more.

 

[Mikos87]

Here is where you are wrong. Here is the stats of every number 1 or 2 overall forward taken since 2008:

They averaged 67 points in year 1 and then 68 in year 2. That is a first line level Pretty much of them had at least adequate production outside of the one bust in the group Yakupov. Yakupov is the only one to score at under a 50 point pace in Y3. Even if some of them broke out later (like the Avalanche/Barkov) that production is coming at an absolute bargain price of an ELC. That is why it is important to go for it now. We are getting Kakko who should be expected to score at a similar rate to every other player who went in this range and he will be way underpaid for the first 3 years of his deal. You can supplement him right away with some top players which you will not be able to do in Y4.

And I don't know why it does this I just hit the reply button.

You should exclude the ******** and apply a statistical *************** to your ***. Your ** should equal *. And your *-***** needs to be defined at ** percentile.

Then extrapolate based on your **.

You should try it. If you're going the analytics route then you need to able to go beyond straight averages.

Try it, I'm sure it will change your perspective on a number of things. I'm self censoring so you can learn for yourself. There's a nice career benefit out of it.

 

[Kupo]

I wouldn’t be upset about that.

My preference is to stockpile, develop and sort out what we have before getting into long-term commitments and expensive contracts.

I just think that it the Rangers do end up being aggressive in this draft, and Kreider is part of that approach, that the odds of going balls to walls for Panarin increase substantially.

I look at guys like Panarin like Knights, Rooks, Bishops, and Queens.

If your pawns are not setting up your attack, or poising some sort of threat, those special pieces won’t do much on their own.

Getting the 2OA pick on top of all the other assets Gortons drafted and acquired is the equivalent of nailing a Caro Kano opening after 1.e4.

I don’t know what the “correct” answer is. Maybe it is signing Panarin and trading for Trouba. Or, maybe it’s doing neither and stay the course of building from within.

I’ve seen us try and sign mercenaries to fill our voids one too many times. I’m at a point in my life where I have the patience to see this team do something different.

I think we’ve acquired enough “good” assets where Gorton feels we have enough pieces to go swinging this draft. If that includes moving guys like Kreider, Skjei, Andersson, then so be it.

 

[bobbop]

Smash One!

 

[wafflepadsave]

Yahoo!! Now can Dallas beat St. Louis?

 

[SA16]

You should exclude the ******** and apply a statistical *************** to your ***. Your ** should equal *. And your *-***** needs to be defined at ** percentile.

Then extrapolate based on your **.

You should try it. If you're going the analytics route then you need to able to go beyond straight averages.

Try it, I'm sure it will change your perspective on a number of things. I'm self censoring so you can learn for yourself. There's a nice career benefit out of it.

I understand everything you wrote in your post despite you trying to hide things about in asterisks and it has nothing to do with my point and is unnecessary. 14 Forwards were drafted 1/2 since 2008. Of the 14 every single one provided at least borderline 1st line production in Y2 or Y3 (including Yakupov in Y2 actually). It is pretty safe to say without taking the time to do the math that unless this draft is wildly inferior at the top to every previous one the last 10 years that we should expect Kakko to provide borderline 1st line production at worst within his first 3 years. Given that is the case he is going to be extremely underpaid his first few years due to the ELC system and provide a ton of value making this a near ideal time to bring in high quality talent as that will not be as easy to do 4 years from now.

I am pretty sure I do not need to post all the math in a post on a forum and can simply illustrate my point without going into all the detail but I am perfectly capable of doing it and have a degree in mathematics anyway.