Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXIV

[mas0764]

If the Rangers do trade Lindgren, they are doing it to clear cap space to pay their other guys. Defensemen are valuable in the trade market. Lindgren will have another year remaining on his contract at $3M and will have another season of group II before he reaches group III. The Rangers will replace Lindgren with a player on an ELC making $800,000 and that would be Robertson or unless the Rangers swap Lundkvist for a similar LHD. The cap for next season is easier to figure out than the cap for 23-24. The nearly $3.4M in buyout money will go away in 23-24. Any Lindgren trade will be in 23-24. The cap should increase again to $83.5M.

It looks like Lafreniere has figured it out and he is more comfortable on the left side. He could hit his performance bonuses next season and the Rangers will most likely not have the room in the 22-23 cap for those bonuses. Some of the 23-24 cap could be used to pay the bonus money. Playing left wing is more natural for Lafreniere.

Five thoughts on the Rangers: Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider click

Here are some quick thoughts from New York's 5-1 win as the Rangers go into the weekend on a high note.

theathletic.com

Kreider-Zibanejad
Panarin-Kakko
Lafreniere-Chytil

KAM will have no leverage. The Rangers could force him to play at his QO number. That guy is getting better and better. That will be hard to do. If the cap is flat for just two more seasons, the Rangers can go one season with Miller and give him a bigger deal after 23-24 when the cap increases by more than $1M and the Rangers could move out some money with Kreider and/or Trouba when both of the NMC's become limited NTC's to 15 teams. A 15 team no trade list. We know seven of them will be the Canadian teams.

It would be nice to get Kakko signed to an affordable two year bridge. If Kakko figures it out next season and he is a group II again w/arb rights next summer, it will be difficult with Lafreniere also a group II.

The Rangers can hardball Jones for his 2nd contract. I like Jones. Maybe he grow into a Torey Krug type of D man. The Rangers will need his contract for their cap next season. If the Rangers plan on trading Lindgren for more space, Robertson needs to play next season at some point in NY. His $797,500 through 23-24 is valuable. Lindgren played the majority of his first professional season in the AHL. Lindgren played 5 games in NY that year. He played 60 games in NY in his 2nd pro season. Nine games in the AHL.

Chytil's contract is up after 22-23. If Lafreniere and Chytil continue to have success playing well together, the Rangers need to sign Chytil.

This is why finding a young ELC center is way better than trying to trade for a Scheifele or a Larkin.

 

[McRanger92]

It would be beyond foolish to spend the kind of assets it would take to get Larkin, just to have him for only 1 year.

Not if they win. A big swing like that is coming soon, that's all I'm saying.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

$82.5M for next season. $83.5M for 23-24. $84.5M for 24-25.

???? for 25-26.

Hopefully it goes up something good, like over 5-8M. The only silver lining is at least 25-26 is when Igor is set for a new contract so we should have the money for that.

 

[mas0764]

Three more seasons.

Stupid.

 

[GAGLine]

Stupid.

What's stupid about it?

 

[mas0764]

There is not enough money for everyone. Forget about Nemeth's contract.. Go beyond that contract.

Trouba will not be here. It's that simple.

He's gone sooner rather than later. We need the money and Schneider replaces him.

 

[mas0764]

It would be beyond foolish to spend the kind of assets it would take to get Larkin, just to have him for only 1 year.

True, but some people don't care about wasting all their assets on unrealistic Cup chases as long as they get to see an extra playoff round right now.

 

[MrAlmost]

Nemeth has value and he will be traded. The team will probably decide between Motte, Vatrano and Blais. Blais' injury history, and seeming inability to overcome it, will likely mean he is traded as well. Copp is anyone's guess. I would think you could get him on a better deal then Strome, who should not be resigned no matter what, because you have Trouba here already and potentially one or both of Motte and Vatrano.

This comes down to how well can Drury sell the Rangers to all these players. They need to start getting discounts on contracts to build a team that can compete and win for years, regardless of the cap and its increases. Z was a good discount. Maybe Lindgren was too. Fox was barely. Reaves and Goordrow weren't.

If they want all 3, Copp will need to take 4.75, Vatrano 2.5 and Motte 1.5. And that is only if Kakko signs at 2.5. Of course, it makes even less sense cause why would Vatrano take a pay cut? Tyler Motte deserves nothing over 1.5. He is a great 4th line player. That is not worth 2 million.

Nemeth, Georgiev, Rooney, Goat, and Hajek are certainly gone this summer. Hopefully we can send Georgiev, Goat and Hajek out for some late picks.

 

[mas0764]

What's stupid about it?

I usually side with the owners in CBA negotiations, but squeezing teams out of players they will need to sign, when they had planned on the cap rising, is dumb.

They should increase the cap a little more and just tap the breaks on a little growth in the future.

 

[Circus86]

With Trouba and Kreider having great seasons I think Panarins contract is the one that is starting to look a bit meh. Would be better around 10-10.5. He puts up a lots of points yes, but I think guys like McDavid, Matthews, Draisaitl, Kucherov etc. have better contracts. But yeah he was signed UFA so there is that. If he would be C it would be different, but we have so many good wingers its hard to justify paying any winger 11,6.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

The Rangers go into the offseason with $11,771,031 of cap space with an $82.5M cap needing a long-term solution at 2C on the roster. They definitely have cap issues, whether you think they can make it work or not, they will have to be creative.

They have either:

(1) no 1st and 2 2nds, and no 2023 2nd
(2) no 1st and 1 2nd, and 1 2nd in 2023
(3) their 1st and 1 2nd and no 2023 2nd, or
(4) their 1st and no seconds and 1 2023 2nd.

They have no 3rd in 2022 or 2023, no 4th or 5th in 2023, and no 7th in 2022. I'm fine with giving up these picks to make a run as they are not premier assets, but it will definitely hurt their chances to backfill their prospect pool unless they can move some of the RFA dead weight to replenish those mid-round picks. Is anyone going to give up a 4th for Gauthier or Hajek? A 5th? A 6th? Georgiev?

They have the following as relevant RFA: Blais, Gauthier, Georgiev, Gettinger, Hajek, Kakko, Kravtsov
They have the following as relevant UFA: Braun, Copp, McKegg, Motte, Rooney, Strome, Vatrano

The following players on the current roster are likely to be moved: Nemeth ($2.5M).
Other option to move in a cap move: Chytil ($2.3M) (although I wouldn't)

Even if they move Chytil and Nemeth, that's only $4.8M in cap.

Let's say they move Chytil and Nemeth, that puts them at $16,571,031 in cap space.

Kakko: ($2.5-4M range)
Copp: ($4.5-5.5M range)
Vatrano: ($3.5M range)
Motte: ($2M range)
Rooney: ($2M range)
Strome: ($5.5-6M range)
Kravtsov: (who knows)
Blais: (QO is $1.6M)

Even assuming the lower end of those numbers, Kakko at 2.5M just kicks the can down the road, but whatever. Copp at 4.5M (unlikely that low and is he really the long-term solution at 2C or is he more of a top 6 W or 3C?) and Blais at his QO, the Rangers would have approximately just under $7M to figure out who is going to play RW with Zibby and Kreider, whether Copp is the answer at 2C or 3C (and acquire the other one), $925K to Jones on the third pairing, a 7th D, a backup G, an extra F. It is very tight.

Kreider - Zibanejad - Lafreniere
Panarin - Copp - Kakko
Blais - Goodrow - Kravstov?
Hunt - Brodzinski - Reaves
X

Lindgren - Fox
Miller - Trouba
Jones - Schneider
X

Shesterkin
X

Is that team good enough to win the Cup?

You then look at 2023-24. The only UFA off the books will be Reaves and Hunt (a combined $2.5M). You have Lafreniere, Miller, and Jones as RFA who need to be paid. You have about $16.5M in cap space because some dead money comes off the books. Kakko likely coming due the year after with Schneider.

The Rangers don't have the space to add a Larkin, Horvat, Miller type beyond a couple of seasons. And they definitely shouldn't pay Copp upwards of $5M, as much as I like him. And if they trade Lundkvist +1st + Kravtsov etc for a short-term fix, the team will have a depleted prospect pool and be unable to backfill their roster when needed and/or acquire a long-term solution in the top 6.

That's why the team needs to use those assets to acquire a cost-controlled player. Maybe there isn't one out there, but Drury needs to turn over every stone trying to find a team willing to move a potential long-term center option for a few of these prospects. Or he needs to play them (Kravtsov, Jones, Lundkvist, etc.) on the roster somehow so they don't stagnate, both developmentally and their value. There is even a question of whether the Rangers are better off just letting all their UFA walk and extending Kakko and Chytil to favorable, long-term deals at a bit above market (maybe 5/$5M for Kakko and 6/$4M for Chytil, something like that) to try to get a value deal on the books so they can maneuver in future seasons. This will limit their ability next season to add any type of impact player who's not off the reserve list or on an ELC.

 

[mas0764]

So glad that we are now getting posts asking "Is this team we locked ourselves into good enough to win? We don't have any cap space to get better."

Instead of trading away expensive vets for youth hauls when we had the chance to insulate against having the ask this question.

 

[bigdog16]

This is why finding a young ELC center is way better than trying to trade for a Scheifele or a Larkin.

This is simply unrealistic. Who are the current ELC centers this year who will be impact players or could step in today and play a top 9 center role? Sillinger, Dach, McTavish, Norris, Zegras, Hughes, Lundell, Holloway, Newhook, Mercer, Perfetti, Byfield, Cozens, Hayton.

Half those players are untouchable and the rest of them will require a huge overpayment to pry them away from teams. Not only are you overpaying, but there is risk because you are still betting on a crystal ball. At least with a Larkin or Schief you know what you are getting.

 

[mas0764]

This is simply unrealistic. Who are the current ELC centers this year who will be impact players or could step in today and play a top 9 center role? Sillinger, Dach, McTavish, Norris, Zegras, Hughes, Lundell, Holloway, Newhook, Mercer, Perfetti, Byfield, Cozens, Hayton.

Half those players are untouchable and the rest of them will require a huge overpayment to pry them away from teams. Not only are you overpaying, but there is risk because you are still betting on a crystal ball. At least with a Larkin or Schief you know what you are getting.

I already said I'm willing to overpay.

It doesn't happen every day but I don't think it's impossible. We've already seen cracks forming around guys like Dach, Holloway, and Hayton in terms of their teams possible willing to move them. Dach was not named as an untouchable in Chicago, Edmonton always needs defensive/goaltender help to convince their stars to stay, and Arizona will trade anything that's not nailed to the floor.

Frankly with Kreider coming off a 50 goal season and us in need of cap space, I think I'd float his name out there and see what comes up. 50 goal winger could bring back a lot if you can talk him into waiving.

 

[effen]

So glad that we are now getting posts asking "Is this team we locked ourselves into good enough to win? We don't have any cap space to get better."

Instead of trading away expensive vets for youth hauls when we had the chance to insulate against having the ask this question.

You have an interesting assessment of message board posters, their ability to influence events, and the structure and flow of time.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

The Rangers go into the offseason with $11,771,031 of cap space with an $82.5M cap needing a long-term solution at 2C on the roster. They definitely have cap issues, whether you think they can make it work or not, they will have to be creative.

They have either:

(1) no 1st and 2 2nds, and no 2023 2nd
(2) no 1st and 1 2nd, and 1 2nd in 2023
(3) their 1st and 1 2nd and no 2023 2nd, or
(4) their 1st and no seconds and 1 2023 2nd.

They have no 3rd in 2022 or 2023, no 4th or 5th in 2023, and no 7th in 2022. I'm fine with giving up these picks to make a run as they are not premier assets, but it will definitely hurt their chances to backfill their prospect pool unless they can move some of the RFA dead weight to replenish those mid-round picks. Is anyone going to give up a 4th for Gauthier or Hajek? A 5th? A 6th? Georgiev?

They have the following as relevant RFA: Blais, Gauthier, Georgiev, Gettinger, Hajek, Kakko, Kravtsov
They have the following as relevant UFA: Braun, Copp, McKegg, Motte, Rooney, Strome, Vatrano

The following players on the current roster are likely to be moved: Nemeth ($2.5M).
Other option to move in a cap move: Chytil ($2.3M) (although I wouldn't)

Even if they move Chytil and Nemeth, that's only $4.8M in cap.

Let's say they move Chytil and Nemeth, that puts them at $16,571,031 in cap space.

Kakko: ($2.5-4M range)
Copp: ($4.5-5.5M range)
Vatrano: ($3.5M range)
Motte: ($2M range)
Rooney: ($2M range)
Strome: ($5.5-6M range)
Kravtsov: (who knows)
Blais: (QO is $1.6M)

Even assuming the lower end of those numbers, Kakko at 2.5M just kicks the can down the road, but whatever. Copp at 4.5M (unlikely that low and is he really the long-term solution at 2C or is he more of a top 6 W or 3C?) and Blais at his QO, the Rangers would have approximately just under $7M to figure out who is going to play RW with Zibby and Kreider, whether Copp is the answer at 2C or 3C (and acquire the other one), $925K to Jones on the third pairing, a 7th D, a backup G, an extra F. It is very tight.

Kreider - Zibanejad - Lafreniere
Panarin - Copp - Kakko
Blais - Goodrow - Kravstov?
Hunt - Brodzinski - Reaves
X

Lindgren - Fox
Miller - Trouba
Jones - Schneider
X

Shesterkin
X

Is that team good enough to win the Cup?

You then look at 2023-24. The only UFA off the books will be Reaves and Hunt (a combined $2.5M). You have Lafreniere, Miller, and Jones as RFA who need to be paid. You have about $16.5M in cap space because some dead money comes off the books. Kakko likely coming due the year after with Schneider.

The Rangers don't have the space to add a Larkin, Horvat, Miller type beyond a couple of seasons. And they definitely shouldn't pay Copp upwards of $5M, as much as I like him. And if they trade Lundkvist +1st + Kravtsov etc for a short-term fix, the team will have a depleted prospect pool and be unable to backfill their roster when needed and/or acquire a long-term solution in the top 6.

That's why the team needs to use those assets to acquire a cost-controlled player. Maybe there isn't one out there, but Drury needs to turn over every stone trying to find a team willing to move a potential long-term center option for a few of these prospects. Or he needs to play them (Kravtsov, Jones, Lundkvist, etc.) on the roster somehow so they don't stagnate, both developmentally and their value. There is even a question of whether the Rangers are better off just letting all their UFA walk and extending Kakko and Chytil to favorable, long-term deals at a bit above market (maybe 5/$5M for Kakko and 6/$4M for Chytil, something like that) to try to get a value deal on the books so they can maneuver in future seasons. This will limit their ability next season to add any type of impact player who's not off the reserve list or on an ELC.

Rooney is not getting 2M. He made 750K this year, 1.25 at absolute max but I'd rather cut him loose if he wants that and use that money for Motte, try to keep both if possible. Kakko isn't going to get more than 3M either on a bridge. Strome is gone.


Kakko - 3M
Copp - 4.75M
Vatrano - 3M
Rooney - 1.25
Motte - 2M
Krav - 1M
Blais - 1.75M
----
16.7M total out of the 16.5 cap room we have if we get rid of Nemth and Chytil. If we don't want to get rid of Chytil then take away Vatrano.

 

[mas0764]

You have an interesting assessment of message board posters, their ability to influence events, and the structure and flow of time.

Thanks!

 

[DialUp]

You have an interesting assessment of message board posters, their ability to influence events, and the structure and flow of time.

Only fools are enslaved by time and space

 

[mas0764]

Rooney is not getting 2M. He made 750K this year, 1.25 at absolute max but I'd rather cut him loose if he wants that and use that money for Motte, try to keep both if possible. Kakko isn't going to get more than 3M either on a bridge. Strome is gone.


Kakko - 3M
Copp - 4.75M
Vatrano - 3M
Rooney - 1.25
Motte - 2M
Krav - 1M
Blais - 1.75M
----
16.7M total out of the 16.5 cap room we have if we get rid of Nemth and Chytil. If we don't want to get rid of Chytil then take away Vatrano.

I'll keep Chytil over Vatrano all day.

 

[DanielBrassard]

The cap being flat another 3 years sucks. There was talk it was gonna be just another 2 but I guess not.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I'll keep Chytil over Vatrano all day.

Same, esp if Chytil play continues to improve.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

The cap being flat another 3 years sucks. There was talk it was gonna be just another 2 but I guess not.

I'd bet on the cap rising a year early. The league is always going to publicly state the worst case scenario they originally came up with until the unknown player debt is completely repaid.

It's just a feeling I get. You have new TV money rolling in, and another franchise in what should be a very healthy market for HRR. Arizona will continue to be the league albatross, but Canadian franchises will all bounce back as pandemic restrictions continue to ease.

 

[McRanger92]

I already said I'm willing to overpay.

It doesn't happen every day but I don't think it's impossible. We've already seen cracks forming around guys like Dach, Holloway, and Hayton in terms of their teams possible willing to move them. Dach was not named as an untouchable in Chicago, Edmonton always needs defensive/goaltender help to convince their stars to stay, and Arizona will trade anything that's not nailed to the floor.

Frankly with Kreider coming off a 50 goal season and us in need of cap space, I think I'd float his name out there and see what comes up. 50 goal winger could bring back a lot if you can talk him into waiving.

Thank god you're not in charge. Trading one of the best Rangers of the 21st century coming of his best season for another round of cap space and magic beans. Smart move.

 

[mas0764]

Thank god you're not in charge. Trading one of the best Rangers of the 21st century coming of his best season for another round of cap space and magic beans. Smart move.

Why? You don't like winning Cups?

I wouldn't be trading Kreider for magic beans. I said I'm willing to overpay for a young/ELC center, but that doesn't mean I'm trading Kreider straight up for Barrett Hayton.

I just said I'd float his name and see what the offers were.

Thank god you aren't in charge though. You cling to every aging vet without any rationale.

Kreider is having a career year that is completely out of character with every other season in his career. This is almost certainly his high-water mark. He's a very nice player but if I could get a young 30 goal scorer and a first round pick over the summer, I'm absolutely entertaining that. It's unlikely Kreider repeats as a 50 goal scorer and even if he remains riding this career rejuvenation, he almost certainly isn't gonna continue to post 50 or 40 goal seasons, he probably regresses to the mid-30s, if not even lower back down to his career averages.

Complete hypothetical, but again, to go back to something that was previously offered (and again, just as a hypothetical, not saying Dallas is likely to offer this again), if a team like Dallas was to offer, say, a 24 year old Jason Robertson coming off a 30 goal season, sure I would take that for Kreider. You aren't getting 50 goals a year for the next 3 seasons from Kreider.

The fact that you hear "listen to offers," and think "magic beans," says a lot about your unrealistic biases about the current team, though.

 

[McRanger92]

Why? You don't like winning Cups?

I wouldn't be trading Kreider for magic beans. I said I'm willing to overpay for a young/ELC center, but that doesn't mean I'm trading Kreider straight up for Barrett Hayton.

I just said I'd float his name and see what the offers were.

Thank god you aren't in charge though. You cling to every aging vet without any rationale.

Kreider is having a career year that is completely out of character with every other season in his career. This is almost certainly his high-water mark. He's a very nice player but if I could get a young 30 goal scorer and a first round pick over the summer, I'm absolutely entertaining that. It's unlikely Kreider repeats as a 50 goal scorer and even if he remains riding this career rejuvenation, he almost certainly isn't gonna continue to post 50 or 40 goal seasons, he probably regresses to the mid-30s, if not even lower back down to his career averages.

Complete hypothetical, but again, to go back to something that was previously offered (and again, just as a hypothetical, not saying Dallas is likely to offer this again), if a team like Dallas was to offer, say, a 24 year old Jason Robertson coming off a 30 goal season, sure I would take that for Kreider. You aren't getting 50 goals a year for the next 3 seasons from Kreider.

The fact that you hear "listen to offers," and think "magic beans," says a lot about your unrealistic biases about the current team, though.

What is my unrealistic bias about the team exactly? Because my opinion is that they are a really freaking good team that has responded to every challenge and gotten better as the year has gone on. Youve been trying to re-write history all year based on hypothetical Kreider & Buchnevich trades so you can say "I told you so" when (and if) the Rangers dont win a Cup. You and I both cant predict the future, but the object of competitive sports is to, you know, actually try to win, not rebuild forever.