Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIV

[leetch99]

There are a lot of moving parts that play into a Kreider deal. First off, where do we end up in the lottery? Second, where is Panarin headed. I expect the Breadman’s rights to be traded before the draft and his preferences and price to be well known. Finally, what kind of contract will it take to keep CK in NY. He could price himself right out of the market. Gorton has a lot to chew on.

If he is going to be traded before the draft, I would expect a team would want to talk to him to see if they can sign him. Having him commit somewhere for the long term will significantly up the return. Kaut and Colorado’s first may not be enough if he is signing there long term. Willingness to sign a contract would bring teams into the conversation that might not be there right now. And that’s all if the Rangers even want to trade him.

Bob....I would almost bet that Kreider will want 50 Million over 7 years to stay in NY....I don't see any discount coming from him . Somebody likely WILL be happy to pay him that much . I would just as soon trade him and if it is Nylander as the main piece...so be it . I think he makes us forget all about Kreider in the next 6 years . Put Nylander on the Ranger team getting top minutes in best situations ...he will be a numbers producer .

 

[NYR Viper]

The Lucic deal is an interesting comparison for Kreider. Jones was a back-up who wanted a bigger role and more money than LA could offer. He had 1st round value obviously as SJ traded there pick for him. Colin Miller was a good prospect but not a top-25 in the NHL. LA 1st was included. The team in a similar spot is Toronto. Andreas Jonsson and Kasperi Kapanen are depth guys who they are going to have an issue paying long term. Toronto 1st ‘20. Find a good, not great prospect or get a 2nd rounder next year.

Kapanen + TO 1st ‘20 + TO 2nd ‘20 for Kreider

 

[True Blue]

Eh I thought that was obvious in the context of the sentence. His two requests were 1) 3m in salary and 2) two years in term.

I still love you TB, whether you were being helpful or pedantic.

Believe it or not, actually helpful.

And as a card carrying member of the proper grammar and good word usage club, commend you on the term pedantic. Great word.

 

[True Blue]

Corsica has him as the #32 RD itl, or the 'worst' 1st pairing RD.

His eyetest can be bad but there's probably a lot of selection bias in there. He's badly exposed because the Rangers team D is generally pretty poor but he's not worthless.

The stats can be deceiving. Are you really going to take him ahead of Boychuk or Travis Hamonic?

I agree that the Rangers D is pretty poor overall, but then his play has not been improving it.

 

[TheTakedown]

What if the player never wanted a long term deal to stay in Winnipeg? There were rumors a few years ago he wanted to play in the states or close to Michigan where his gf was in school to become a nurse. Not really sure you can fault Chevy for that one.

As far as I was aware this was the primary reason why Trouba wanted out of WPG, not because Chevy botched it, and not because Trouba is a dick

 

[DanielBrassard]

The Lucic deal is an interesting comparison for Kreider. Jones was a back-up who wanted a bigger role and more money than LA could offer. He had 1st round value obviously as SJ traded there pick for him. Colin Miller was a good prospect but not a top-25 in the NHL. LA 1st was included. The team in a similar spot is Toronto. Andreas Jonsson and Kasperi Kapanen are depth guys who they are going to have an issue paying long term. Toronto 1st ‘20. Find a good, not great prospect or get a 2nd rounder next year.

Kapanen + TO 1st ‘20 + TO 2nd ‘20 for Kreider

Don't think this would go through. Kapanen is putting up similar numbers to Kreider, plus a 1st+2nd for 1 year of CK? Doesn't seem likely to me.

 

[GordonGecko]

just randomly visiting capfriendly today, I can't believe Staal is under contract for 2 more seasons after this one. It's like a rash that never goes away

 

[Fitzy]

just randomly visiting capfriendly today, I can't believe Staal is under contract for 2 more seasons after this one. It's like a rash that never goes away

You think that's a rash, if we hadn't gotten a compliance buyout we'd just now be entering the final year of Brad Richards's contract.

 

[Calad]

Don't think this would go through. Kapanen is putting up similar numbers to Kreider, plus a 1st+2nd for 1 year of CK? Doesn't seem likely to me.

I like Kreider as much as most Rangers fans, but at this point, with being traded as an expiring contract, he's not gonna return anywhere near the value that people are expecting. Jake Muzzin was traded for a 1st and 2 prospects that were drafted in the 2nd few years back but slid down the depth chart, and that was with an extra year attached to him. If we trade Kreider at the draft, anything significant beyond a 1st round pick would be gravy.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I like Kreider as much as most Rangers fans, but at this point, with being traded as an expiring contract, he's not gonna return anywhere near the value that people are expecting. Jake Muzzin was traded for a 1st and 2 prospects that were drafted in the 2nd few years back but slid down the depth chart, and that was with an extra year attached to him. If we trade Kreider at the draft, anything significant beyond a 1st round pick would be gravy.

That's where I am as well, some of the proposed deals being thrown around here are a bit over the top IMO. How often does someone with 1 year left on their deal bring a significant haul back? Just doesn't happen.

 

[kovazub94]

....The Kreider angle interests me because of his Russian speaking ability. Especially with a few more KHL players in bound he could ease the transition and in that regard I always think of Don Murdoch who was lights out until he discovered the night life and was without "guidance". So it wouldn't be the worst move to keep him around. Maybe more money on a shorter time frame giving him a chance to get a payday in 2021 at age 30 elsewhere. NY will have the cap space, and when that finishes up so will the lions share of Girardi's too.

Kreider's proficiency in Russian is greatly exaggerated.

 

[bobbop]

Bob....I would almost bet that Kreider will want 50 Million over 7 years to stay in NY....I don't see any discount coming from him . Somebody likely WILL be happy to pay him that much . I would just as soon trade him and if it is Nylander as the main piece...so be it . I think he makes us forget all about Kreider in the next 6 years . Put Nylander on the Ranger team getting top minutes in best situations ...he will be a numbers producer .

If Kreider is looking for 7 years @ $50MM, I think he has effectively priced himself out of New York. I never though Kane would command that kind of money but remember it only takes one team. I could see several suitors for him, even at that price and especially if the Rangers go all in on Panarin. What better winger would be available this offseason?

Once I know the price, I make the decision and there's no deal to be made with the player, then I market to other teamsr. Colorado and Florida make the most sense as trade and sign partners but there could be others. How teams do in the playoffs could put more potential buyers into the mix. Toronto is clearly a candidate.

I've been a Kreider fan since he joined the Rangers and I would prefer that he stays but business is business. I abhor the thought of an extended rebuild and if this is part of the program to accelerate the process, I'm OK with it. Just OK though, not great.

 

[Trxjw]

The Lucic deal is an interesting comparison for Kreider. Jones was a back-up who wanted a bigger role and more money than LA could offer. He had 1st round value obviously as SJ traded there pick for him. Colin Miller was a good prospect but not a top-25 in the NHL. LA 1st was included. The team in a similar spot is Toronto. Andreas Jonsson and Kasperi Kapanen are depth guys who they are going to have an issue paying long term. Toronto 1st ‘20. Find a good, not great prospect or get a 2nd rounder next year.

Kapanen + TO 1st ‘20 + TO 2nd ‘20 for Kreider

Not sure that's the equivalent to the Lucic deal. Miller was putting up good numbers in the AHL, as was Jones, but they were both still far from sure things in the NHL. Plus the goalie factor makes it so hard to put your figure on the true value of the deal. They just vary so wildly in cost year to year.

We're probably looking at something in the ballpark of the Lucic to LA or Kesler to ANA deals. Vancouver got more proven talent, while Boston went the futures route, but either way there wasn't a young, projectable NHLer in the mix like Kapanen.

The wildcard is whether or not the Rangers can (or want to) leverage the cap situation of another team to sweeten a deal. If they can absorb a bad contract in addition to dealing Kreider at a reduced hit, they might be able to land a quality young player. However, I think said player would probably be either a higher end prospect with little NHL pedigree, or a player who has a larger contract and some question marks.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

If Kreider wants over $7MM for 7 years which would you prefer?

• Kreider for 7 more years and $3MM or so in extra cap space
• Panarin for 7 years, a #1 in the teens and a good prospect, but $3MM or so less in cap space?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

If Kreider wants over $7MM for 7 years which would you prefer?

• Kreider for 7 more years and $3MM or so in extra cap space
• Panarin for 7 years, a #1 in the teens and a good prospect, but $3MM or so less in cap space?

Neither

 

[NYR Viper]

Not sure that's the equivalent to the Lucic deal. Miller was putting up good numbers in the AHL, as was Jones, but they were both still far from sure things in the NHL. Plus the goalie factor makes it so hard to put your figure on the true value of the deal. They just vary so wildly in cost year to year.

We're probably looking at something in the ballpark of the Lucic to LA or Kesler to ANA deals. Vancouver got more proven talent, while Boston went the futures route, but either way there wasn't a young, projectable NHLer in the mix like Kapanen.

The wildcard is whether or not the Rangers can (or want to) leverage the cap situation of another team to sweeten a deal. If they can absorb a bad contract in addition to dealing Kreider at a reduced hit, they might be able to land a quality young player. However, I think said player would probably be either a higher end prospect with little NHL pedigree, or a player who has a larger contract and some question marks.

But wasn’t Jones a really nice piece? I mean SJ traded their first for him right afterwards so he had legitimate value

 

[Trxjw]

But wasn’t Jones a really nice piece? I mean SJ traded their first for him right afterwards so he had legitimate value

Certainly a good piece but there was a "we got the piece you couldn't get from your division rival" tax there for sure.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Side note, Jones numbers have been pretty brutal this year for playing on a good team. Almost 3 GAA and a sub 90% SAV%.

For reference, Lundqvist GAA is only 0.08 less and his SAV% is .10 better. Lundqvist has played in 8 or 9 fewer games, but has faced more shots.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I know it's tongue in cheek, but unless you're pre law decent grades in first tier ivy's are pretty much guaranteed.

He only got in because he posed as a rower....

 

[Mikos87]

If the Rangers retain 50% soon Shatts, his actual costs to an acquiring team would be $5.3M for 2 years.

That's a steal if the team can absorb the cap hit, which at $3.3M is doable.

Just hurts the Rangers to have the amount of dead space they do. But for a rebuilding team... Thats not a terrible proposition.

 

[donpaulo]

Kreider's proficiency in Russian is greatly exaggerated.

we'll agree to disagree then

what is your source of "greatly" ?

a few points

regarding Gilmour who is UFA unless he plays in a certain number of games for NYR which I don't think he will hit. He might return on a new deal, but I don't think its prudent to pencil him in anywhere on the roster yet.

Carolina is knee deep in defensemen. They want to move one for a forward so I don' t see them taking on Pionk. I suppose anything is possible however

Shat wants to be a Ranger. Right now the team needs that kind of attitude. For decades the franchise brought in the mercenaries and where did that get them ? I think they keep him for the duration then move in in the final year at the deadline for picks/prospects.

The time to move Skjei was just after his breakout season. Better to keep him around. He knows the system, plays a competent game (for the most part) and is quite likely the transition kind of player who stays through the rebuild and plays on the improving team down the road. Obviously if some team offers the moon for him or Kreider then take the deal and move on...

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

we'll agree to disagree then

what is your source of "greatly" ?

a few points

regarding Gilmour who is UFA unless he plays in a certain number of games for NYR which I don't think he will hit. He might return on a new deal, but I don't think its prudent to pencil him in anywhere on the roster yet.

Carolina is knee deep in defensemen. They want to move one for a forward so I don' t see them taking on Pionk. I suppose anything is possible however

Shat wants to be a Ranger. Right now the team needs that kind of attitude. For decades the franchise brought in the mercenaries and where did that get them ? I think they keep him for the duration then move in in the final year at the deadline for picks/prospects.

The time to move Skjei was just after his breakout season. Better to keep him around. He knows the system, plays a competent game (for the most part) and is quite likely the transition kind of player who stays through the rebuild and plays on the improving team down the road. Obviously if some team offers the moon for him or Kreider then take the deal and move on...

Buchnevich himself said that kreider’s russian is not that good

It’s an urban myth

 

[Waivers]

If Kreider wants over $7MM for 7 years which would you prefer?

• Kreider for 7 more years and $3MM or so in extra cap space
• Panarin for 7 years, a #1 in the teens and a good prospect, but $3MM or so less in cap space?

Trade Kreider, and 2 1sts between this draft and/or next draft to get Hughes. If we were going to commit dollars and term to a Ranger, I would rather the proceeds go to another player who doesn’t have a ceiling of 50 points, or someone who is more consistent (Panarin). We have already come this far in the rebuild, and there are better avenues to explore than extending Kreider.

 

[Waivers]

Perhaps the Rangers view Zibanejad and Panarin in the same light like how the Leafs view Tavares and Marleau. They can be the two “older” guys to lead the Rangers moving forward.

 

[Beacon]

I would bet money with anyone that Kreider clears $50 next contract. All you need is 1 GM of 31. Someone will decide Kreider is the difference between being a contender vs a pretender. Or the difference between playoffs and golf. Someone will pay. Better not be us.