Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXX

[Fitzy]

That's debatable, but my point still stands that yes, if Kakko was drafted 22nd everyone would agree a bridge is more or less fine, just like Chytil who was drafted in the 20s and everyone was fine with his bridge.

The problem is that everyone also knows Kakko has a superstar buried in there, including he and his agent.

It is true that our current cap situation is going to preclude us from being able to gamble on an 8 year deal for him. If our cap was otherwise, I'd say, make the gamble, because we have the space to eat the mistake, if it becomes one, and if it pays off, we are way ahead of the game. But we don't have that luxury, really.

Still, with every move we make, we should be cognizant that our Cup hopes rely about ten times over on Kakko, Laf and Fox rather than Strome, Kreider and Trouba. Those latter players may be better as we stand here today but they will only take you to disappointing playoff exits if they are your 3rd-5th best players. The ship needs to be steered in the direction of the youth, and only accomodate the vets if it's possible to also supplement the kids long term.

We are nearing an inflection point on that. We doubled down on winning now with Panarin, Trouba, Kreider, and Zibanejad. Eventually they have to tilt this thing back the other way a bit, or you are going to be a team that runs out of steam in 3 seasons and then has nothing to put in place around Kakko, Laf and Fox.

See- this is the interesting contestable point for me.

The 93-94 Rangers traded a lot of youth away so that we could try to win with a veteran core of Messier, Leetch, Graves, Richter, Lowe, etc.

If you had said in 1992 that the NYR cup hopes rested on the futures of Amonte, Zubov, Kovalev, Weight, and Turcotte, you'd be semi-right, but right only in the sense that Zubov and Kovalev contributed to a cup win with a veteran core while they were still youngsters.

Will NYR do another 1993 move of trading a bunch of young guys for playoff winning veterans like Larmer and Glenn Anderson?

The makeup of kids and veterans on the roster right now is strikingly similar to the early 90's Rangers. The question is whether we go for two distinct cup windows again as you've alluded to, or if Drury gets itchy and pulls the trigger on going all in with Panarin, Kreider, Zibby, Trouba, Fox as the core.

 

[Thirty One]

Think there's a chance that Philly would trade Giroux here? We traded Malakhov to Philly, what's the difference?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

It makes all the sense in the world to dive into the rental market this year if this keeps up.

They're going to have to do a bit of a reset with this roster next year anyway. If they're in position, why not try to see if you can strike the iron right NOW?

I'm not suggesting getting stupid, but an add or two or three makes sense.

 

[mas0764]

Yet those are the players that are driving us to first place.

I think this is a drastic misinterpretation of our success right now.

We are not winning primarily because of Strome, Trouba, and Kreider. Of those three, Kreider probably is the most valuable cause he's potting goals at an unbelievable rate in a way that can't be replicated by anyone else on our roster at the moment, but still, his history of hot and cold streaks makes me leary.

We are winning due to Panarin, Fox and Shesterkin, primarily.

Its not Kakko, Laf, Goat, Chytil, Lundqvist, Hunt, etc.. Its those guys plus Panarin, Fox and Igor. So I guess people are just looking at it as if the team has chemistry and they are a tight unit, that can go a long way to success. Both in the regular season and the playoffs.

Yes, that's how people are looking at it, but looking at it that way is misguided. Of course on our ridiculous winning streak people want to keep everything in place.

But we can't. We have to identify what objectives are most important and what players are most important to those objectives, as well as the likelihood of achieving those objectives with those players.

Also, if they dont keep Strome, they can resign everyone pretty comfortably without much cap issue.

I've made the case many times on this board that we are gonna have to choose between Strome, Kreider, and Trouba.

Not "should," choose. Have to choose.

Your chart basically proves my point. Ok, so say you are overestimating on Kakko by 2.5m. Think Strome is taking just that $2.5m? No? Cause we have no cap space other than saving money on Kakko there. And you are already populating the bottom 6 with min guys like Gettinger and Barron and giving Rooney an unrealistic $1.2m.

And honestly Kakko and Blais probably dont even get that much.

Sorry for the second reply.

No apologies needed.

But I think it's very possible Kakko gets way more than people are thinking.... which makes everything all the tighter... or less possible.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact Strome is sticking around

I’m just low key hoping Drury holds off extending him until after the season, I’d like to see what this team looks like in the playoffs before being locked into them for another 3-4 years

The cutesy shit Strome does with Panarin probably isn’t going to work in the playoffs me thinks.

that said I’m sure Drury will extend him before the deadline lol

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Fans worry about the salary cap way more than actual NHL GMs.

The Rangers are gonna do what they want and somehow find a way.

 

[mas0764]

Support players? Complimentary pieces? 100% wrong. Strome right now is their best center and has great chemistry with their best forward, Kreider has double the goals of anybody else on the team, and Trouba is their 2nd best Dman behind Fox. Every one of them has been an integral part of this team and Kreider and Trouba are having their best seasons under Gallant. It may be that they can't afford all 3 but saying they are not vital players makes no sense if you have actually been watching this year.

Players like Strome, Trouba and Kreider even during our run are not good enough to be considered indispensable players on a true Cup contender.

If you think that these three are going to be the three that propel us to series victories over teams like the Caps, Lightning, Panthers, Hurricanes, and Avalanche, I just don't know what to tell you. We aren't getting by those teams with Strome and Trouba being our best guys.

Panarin, Fox, Zibanejad and Shesterkin will have to dominate to have a chance and the contributions from those other guys will be secondary, or we'll lose.

 

[rangers1314]

Think there's a chance that Philly would trade Giroux here? We traded Malakhov to Philly, what's the difference?

Claude has a NMC, so he controls if/where is he moved.

I don't see why they wouldn't if the NYR tabled the best offer.

 

[mas0764]

See- this is the interesting contestable point for me.

The 93-94 Rangers traded a lot of youth away so that we could try to win with a veteran core of Messier, Leetch, Graves, Richter, Lowe, etc.

If you had said in 1992 that the NYR cup hopes rested on the futures of Amonte, Zubov, Kovalev, Weight, and Turcotte, you'd be semi-right, but right only in the sense that Zubov and Kovalev contributed to a cup win with a veteran core while they were still youngsters.

Will NYR do another 1993 move of trading a bunch of young guys for playoff winning veterans like Larmer and Glenn Anderson?

The makeup of kids and veterans on the roster right now is strikingly similar to the early 90's Rangers. The question is whether we go for two distinct cup windows again as you've alluded to, or if Drury gets itchy and pulls the trigger on going all in with Panarin, Kreider, Zibby, Trouba, Fox as the core.

I have zero interest in putting every egg into the basket of one season like the 1994 Rangers did. Everyone remembers that run fondly but also consider that we went to TWO game sevens, one of them into double OT, and we could have lost either of those games quite easily and we'd have no Cups since 1940 STILL.

I love that 1994 run. It's what made me a Ranger fan at 11 years old.

And it was the absolute wrong move. We may have won multiple Cups had we kept Amonte, Zubov, Kovalev, Weight, and Turcotte, and paid to keep bringing back Messier, Graves, Leetch and Richter. Even if we won none, going all-in is bad math. It's like if we emptied our savings account on lottery tickets and then hit the jackpot. Just because we won, doesn't mean it was the smart move, it was the lucky result. The smart math says give yourself ten chances with 2-in-10 odds rather than one chance with 4-in-10 odds.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Players like Strome, Trouba and Kreider even during our run are not good enough to be considered indispensable players on a true Cup contender.

If you think that these three are going to be the three that propel us to series victories over teams like the Caps, Lightning, Panthers, Hurricanes, and Avalanche, I just don't know what to tell you. We aren't getting by those teams with Strome and Trouba being our best guys.

Panarin, Fox, Zibanejad and Shesterkin will have to dominate to have a chance and the contributions from those other guys will be secondary, or we'll lose.

I stand by what I said. They are not complimentary pieces like you claim. Fox, Panarin, and Shesty are our best players but Strome, Trouba and Kreider are a tier below and extremely important to this teams overall success. Complimentary pieces are players like Goodrow, Hunt, Chytil, Reaves, etc.

 

[rangers1314]

Hartford just postponed their game set for Friday, what a mess.

 

[Griffinbw]

Wonder where this one came from….

 

[Off Sides]

Where do these rental imports play, and who gets the demotion?

 

[EdJovanovski]

Where are people seeing that Huska is starting?

 

[CLW]

Because this is our literal first year of contention of what should be a ten year run of contention, and we have other long term needs that still need desperate addressing to supplement that objective as well. Don't spend every dollar as soon as it hits your pocket.



So if we are for real we should be able to make noise without mortgaging.



If this team stacks up against Tampa, Florida, Carolina and Colorado, then they will do so (or not) on the backs of Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox and Shesterkin. Overpaying to try to squeak by one of those teams for a player who then walks out the door come July is the epitome of foolishness. We don't know what we need to measure up against those teams long term because we haven't been tested in a seven games series against any of them, really.

Why squander our assets now for something we may not even need? Or something that may come no closer to getting us past those top contenders?

We have no idea other than it's pretty clear we need a long term young center. Dealing someone like Jones or Robertson for a Pavelski who walks this summer is foolish.

Panarin, Zib, Fox and Shesty compare to any core right now. The Rangers will have two windows, one with this current core leading and another with the current kids (+Fox) mature and in charge. First core window has opened this season. I have no doubt we will see pieces traded for strong vets to support the post-season push and rightfully so. The Panarin core is at it's peak pretty much right now.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Wonder where this one came from….

Because negative Larry can't write any "jumping off the ledge" articles like earlier in the season so now he has to write about something I guess.

 

[mas0764]

I stand by what I said. They are not complimentary pieces like you claim. Fox, Panarin, and Shesty are our best players but Strome, Trouba and Kreider are a tier below and extremely important to this teams overall success. Complimentary pieces are players like Goodrow, Hunt, Chytil, Reaves, etc.

Semantics, then. I'm not arguing that Trouba and Kreider are on equal tiers to Goodrow and Hunt, I said they are complimentary, which means, by the way I used the term, they compliment (ie, assist/support) the primary line drivers. They are not "replacement level," and they are not exactly found in every free agent class, but they are the players you shouldn't over-commit to before your true core is in place because if the core is not good enough these players won't move the needle themselves.

Meanwhile the Goodrows and Hunts of the world, well, I guess they are not quite "replacement level," either but they are available in literally any offseason, affordably.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

I can confidently say that if the Rangers trade Kakko ++ for Kane and presumably resign Strome I will no longer root for this team and probably give up the NHL.

Frankly it might be what I need to break the addiction.

But there is this: when the kids are coming close to reaching their most productive days, where will Zibanejad, Panarin, Kreider and Trouba be on the curve? When do the X and Y axis on the Blueprint intersect?

Talk about right question, wrong conclusion (if the conclusion is try to repeat ‘94).

 

[Savant]

Wonder where this one came from….

Would not but playing along with Brooksie, I would much rather trade Lafreniere than Kakko

 

[Thirty One]

Wonder where this one came from….

He spelled Lundkvist's name wrong.

 

[mas0764]

Panarin, Zib, Fox and Shesty compare to any core right now. The Rangers will have two windows, one with this current core leading and another with the current kids (+Fox) mature and in charge. First core window has opened this season. I have no doubt we will see pieces traded for strong vets to support the post-season push and rightfully so. The Panarin core is at it's peak pretty much right now.

Even if I bought this interpretation of our window/windows, you yourself said it just opened this season. If it's this season and this season only then it's not a true window (which is why I don't really agree with this interpretation, because I do agree that this iteration isn't long-lasting enough to constitute a true, contiguous run with all pieces in similar roles - Kreider and Trouba will have to be moved for cap reasons sooner rather than later, Zibanejad will not be long-lasting enough as the 1C and will eventually have his role shrink, etc).

But even if it's a three year window, I don't think you have to push your chips in the center now. There will be just as good a chance next year as teams like Washington, NYI and Pitt are not getting any younger, and Toronto, Carolina and Florida are going to be in your way next year and the year after as well, so again, better to see how you stack up first if you are going after targeted "push you past X team," pieces.

Like I said, unless it's a young future 1C type. Then I'll pay. I'm saying no to pure rentals designed to get you by certain teams in the playoffs for 1 run.

If it's a third round pick for Reilly Smith or something that has no real chance of value, fine.

But I'm not giving up Othmann, or Jones, or a first, for a guy who walks in 3 months. No way, that's foolish as hell.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Wonder where this one came from….

Would I do it Larry? Of course. Am I trading Kakko in that trade? Nope. Kane has a NMC, so that's going to severely limit. I would, however, consider trading a lot.

Rangers still need another center though. Need to be creative.

 

[mas0764]

Would not but playing along with Brooksie, I would much rather trade Lafreniere than Kakko

I'm not trading either under any circumstances.

 

[McRanger92]

Bolded the important parts.

So even Kakko at $2.25m puts us at the cap limit.

Where is the rest of the money coming from??? No one is answering this.

Strome cannot be afforded. If he is, Kreider or Trouba is on the block. If they aren't, then Goodrow is.

If he isn't, then Kakko is going to get squeezed and we won't be able to pay anyone else anything and our bottom 6 will be half AHLers.

Why are we gonna gut our team over this issue?

It's simple: One of Strome, Kreider, or Trouba has to go. These type of support level players should not be clung to like some posters are. They are not vital players, they are complimentary pieces. Don't ruin your salary structure for them.

Hell, and if you can get assets for one of them in return as well as the cap space, so much the better.

I did my homework and the Rangers have avenues to bring back the same team next year, without having to move Kreider/Trouba. I admit that one of those guys will probably need to be moved the following summer but the math adds up for 2022-2023. Only 12 FWDs on the roster above, but i also did not take into account the 1 million cap increase that the league has said will happen every year of the flat cap. Rooney can also be replaced by 2 players making $750,000. The key is keeping the Strome/Kakko extensions at 10 mil aav. If they cant make that work, difficult decisions will be made on 1 of Kreider/Trouba. But i trust the NYR front office has a far better read on this than anyone on HFBoards, and they appear to be very interested in bring Strome back, so that kind of answers the question that they know it will be tight, but doable

 

[mas0764]

Wonder where this one came from….

Would you get Kane if it cost you Kaapo Kakko (but not Alexis Lafreniere), Nils Lundqvist (or Zac Jones or Matthew Robertson but not Braden Schneider), Vitali Kravtsov (but not Will Cuylle or Brennan Othmann) and a 2022 first-rounder?

Kakko, Lundkvist, Kravtsov and a first for Kane?

What kind of drugs is this guy on?