Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXVI

[Avery16]

He did it to himself.

You act like the GM of a team has no actual role in personnel management.

 

[New York RKY]

I said prospect, so at that age

So as a 21 year old he’s ranked 20th with a whopping 4 points. Hardly highest all time.

 

[Atax]

Does the model being shown account for Tampa going 18 mil over the cap? Hard to have competitive statistics when you have an extra 18 mil to work with.

 

[mas0764]

I don't think what @mas0764 is all that argumentative guys. We are all saying pretty much the same thing.

1) The young players need to continue to develop
2) The Rangers are not a finished product in terms of acquisitions
3) This will more than likely be a transition year

In saying all of that, the team should be more enjoyable to watch and take a step forward. There will be bumps. Players will have ups and downs. By this time next year, the management team should have a firmer grasp on where young players like Miller, Chytil, Lafreniere, Kaako, Lundkvist and others are at and where they need to add and where they can back-fill with other talented youngsters as those kids develop.

Perhaps the layout from Dom Ldfkljwqnafdlkjsnd err's on the side of requiring too high of a bar for teams to strive for, that's his nuanced take based on his data. It doesn't make it a bad goal to have though.

I would say that adding another 45-55 point player would be helpful in general. It's part of the reason having Kreider on the 3rd line was so attractive in general because developing another top-6 forward would alleviate that concern a bit. In saying that, Kravtsov turned out to be a giant baby and the team will look to source that elsewhere. Based on his antics I'm not sure I would want him around a young developing roster anyways. Again, not a finished product.

I guess my biggest problem with this is how hard it is to find a 60-70 point player when you are making the second round of the playoffs every year.

I want the hard to find pieces in hand now.

We can backfill with the 30-40 pointers and grit guys later, through cheap free agency, college free agents, and late first round picks.

I have no confidence that the post-Zibanejad/Panarin core is remotely assembled any more, and I have no idea what magic hat we are gonna pull a Zegras out of.

 

[EdJovanovski]

So as a 21 year old he’s ranked 20th with a whopping 4 points. Hardly highest all time.

What on earth are you talking about? He absolutely shattered the all time record for points in a playoff for a u21 player at age 18 with 11pts in 16gp. He had 17pts in 25gp from the age 18-20. KHL is also lower scoring than the NHL btw, not that you’d know since given your opinion of Kravtsov and your ignorance of his KHL performance you’ve obviously never watched a single KHL game of his.

 

[Greg02]

I guess my biggest problem with this is how hard it is to find a 60-70 point player when you are making the second round of the playoffs every year.

I want the hard to find pieces in hand now.

We can backfill with the 30-40 pointers and grit guys later, through cheap free agency, college free agents, and late first round picks.

I have no confidence that the post-Zibanejad/Panarin core is remotely assembled any more, and I have no idea what magic hat we are gonna pull a Zegras out of.

I haven't done the work to read through the math and figure out what correlations were teased out, so maybe Don L already accounted for this, but we do have that extra 60-70 point player. His name is Ryan Strome.

 

[duhmetreE]

I guess my biggest problem with this is how hard it is to find a 60-70 point player when you are making the second round of the playoffs every year.

I want the hard to find pieces in hand now.

We can backfill with the 30-40 pointers and grit guys later, through cheap free agency, college free agents, and late first round picks.

I have no confidence that the post-Zibanejad/Panarin core is remotely assembled any more, and I have no idea what magic hat we are gonna pull a Zegras out of.

So your worry is 5-6 years from now?

 

[New York RKY]

What on earth are you talking about? He absolutely shattered the all time record for points in a playoff for a u21 player at age 18 with 11pts in 16gp. He had 17pts in 25gp from the age 18-20. KHL is also lower scoring than the NHL btw, not that you’d know since given your opinion of Kravtsov and your ignorance of his KHL performance you’ve obviously never watched a single KHL game of his.

Please send me the link for these stats so I can review. I’ve only been following him very closely since we drafted him.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Please send me the link for these stats so I can review. I’ve only been following him very closely since we drafted him.

Vitali Kravtsov at eliteprospects.com

 

[mas0764]

We are over invested in talent.

We are lacking a top line player, I'd say. And one for the future.

What is your answer? Trade for Eichel? that's not realistic anymore.

I'm not so sure it's unrealistic. It does mean having to find a taker for, preferably, Trouba, or Kreider. But setting that on the back burner, I think they need to get aggressive shopping for a young, non-NHL forward who projects to have top 6 upside. Acquiring one would help tremendously, preferably a center.

I don't need to list the usual rundown of names. They have assets, they are gonna have to start spending them before they'd have liked, and they are gonna have to make the right projection. Whether that's a guy like Hayton who has some warts or overpaying to pry out a guy like Lundell, I don't know.

 

[New York RKY]

Vitali Kravtsov at eliteprospects.com

Ok but that doesn’t show me the all time rankings.

 

[mas0764]

So your worry is 5-6 years from now?

Given that I do not believe we have enough to win a Cup right now, yes, my worry is about winning in the future.

 

[mas0764]

I haven't done the work to read through the math and figure out what correlations were teased out, so maybe Don L already accounted for this, but we do have that extra 60-70 point player. His name is Ryan Strome.

I think Strome's defensive deficiencies drag down his win shares.

 

[duhmetreE]

We are lacking a top line player, I'd say. And one for the future.



I'm not so sure it's unrealistic. It does mean having to find a taker for, preferably, Trouba, or Kreider. But setting that on the back burner, I think they need to get aggressive shopping for a young, non-NHL forward who projects to have top 6 upside. Acquiring one would help tremendously, preferably a center.

I don't need to list the usual rundown of names. They have assets, they are gonna have to start spending them before they'd have liked, and they are gonna have to make the right projection. Whether that's a guy like Hayton who has some warts or overpaying to pry out a guy like Lundell, I don't know.

We have just as many top line players as Tampa. Future? Laf and Kakko?

Tampas offense is driven by Kucherov, Point and Hedman
Our offense is driven by Panarin, Zibs and Fox.

Difference is we have players like Laf and Kakko who are growing into drivers/top line players. We will have more top talent than Tampa has had, over their past 2 cup runs, as soon as this season.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Ok but that doesn’t show me the all time rankings.

he was also younger than the others that didn’t even come close to him

 

[NYR Viper]

I guess my biggest problem with this is how hard it is to find a 60-70 point player when you are making the second round of the playoffs every year.

I want the hard to find pieces in hand now.

We can backfill with the 30-40 pointers and grit guys later, through cheap free agency, college free agents, and late first round picks.

I have no confidence that the post-Zibanejad/Panarin core is remotely assembled any more, and I have no idea what magic hat we are gonna pull a Zegras out of.

I mean I understand the concern. In an ideal world all of the young players would work out and everything would be perfect but this is why when they were accumulating assets, it was important to accumulate A LOT of assets. We haven't really seen a young player truly surprise yet. Lafreniere, Kaako, Lundkvist, Miller, Fox, Lindgren. All of these guys were highly touted. We just need to have some patience and recognize that they can find that 60-70 point guy if an opportunity arises.

 

[New York RKY]

he was also younger than the others that didn’t even come close to him

Ok he did lead only as an 18 year old. Thanks for sharing.

 

[mas0764]

I mean I understand the concern. In an ideal world all of the young players would work out and everything would be perfect but this is why when they were accumulating assets, it was important to accumulate A LOT of assets.

Well so then you understand the angst that we've now thrown away Lias Andersson, Tony DeAngelo, Pavel Buchnevich, and Vitali Kravstov, and not a single one of those pieces was parlayed into a top 6 center or even top 6 forward.

When a smart team would have been able to package any or all of them at the right time for another stud.

Not saying it was foreseeable entirely, but think about for a second what a package of Andersson, DeAngelo, Buch and Kravtsov brings you at the 2020 draft.

 

[jay from jersey]

I guess my biggest problem with this is how hard it is to find a 60-70 point player when you are making the second round of the playoffs every year.

I want the hard to find pieces in hand now.

We can backfill with the 30-40 pointers and grit guys later, through cheap free agency, college free agents, and late first round picks.

I have no confidence that the post-Zibanejad/Panarin core is remotely assembled any more, and I have no idea what magic hat we are gonna pull a Zegras out of.

We might get a point in the 3rd round. Or draft another Lundqvist in the 7th. I don’t think the situation is as bleak as your pointing out to be all because we losing Kravtsov??? 1 prospect that may have the talent to be a 60 pt player.
The rangers farm is a lot more talented then you give it credit for.
Our blue line is as well, even losing the 1-2 guys were ultimately going to trade in a year or so.
Being stuck in mediocrity for another 1-2 years drafting guys in hope that they pan out to fill Dom a formula isn’t right.
The rangers got their first 1-2 picks in history. Keeping a losing/lackluster culture isn’t good for them or the rest of the kids. Nor would it be wasting 2 prime years of zibby/ panarin/kreids/trouba.
With the way everything is, we’re in a good place now. We got a culture massive shift with a new good coach and the most young talent we’ve seen in the team and farm since 94
It’s way too early to predict us not being a multiple year cup contender or dynasty as you put it, or a failure.
Finding some of these pieces isn’t going to be very hard. Especially with the ammunition we have at our disposal.

the hardest most expensive guys to obtain are already here.
1C , 2-3 elite wings , Norris qualityD, above average starting goalie.
We also have loads of secondary help up and down the roster and on the farm.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Well so then you understand the angst that we've now thrown away Lias Andersson, Tony DeAngelo, Pavel Buchnevich, and Vitali Kravstov, and not a single one of those pieces was parlayed into a top 6 center or even top 6 forward.

When a smart team would have been able to package any or all of them at the right time for another stud.

Not saying it was foreseeable entirely, but think about for a second what a package of Andersson, DeAngelo, Buch and Kravtsov brings you at the 2020 draft.

When you put it like that, it's a real kick in the balls. And we are gonna get very little out of all 4 of them.

 

[mas0764]

We might get a point in the 3rd round. Or draft another Lundqvist in the 7th.

Those odds are like 1 in hundreds.

That's what we are banking the completion of our rebuild on?

I don’t think the situation is as bleak as your pointing out to be all because we losing Kravtsov??? 1 prospect that may have the talent to be a 60 pt player.

I think we're on the edge. The edge of being a team with enough talent to be a Cup favorite versus merely a playoff team.

At one point after drafting Lafreniere we were in the fast lane to Cup favorite. A lot of wheels have fallen off since then. Things are not looking nearly as good today as they were when we won that lottery in 2020. Too many losses without enough quality coming back in - DeAngelo, Buch, Kravtsov. And none of these pieces were parlayed into needed extra top forwards. We have been bleeding assets.

Hey, we got Blais though, the kind of winger that shows up in free agency every damn year.

The rangers farm is a lot more talented then you give it credit for.

Not the forward group. The defensive pipeline is, but even that will get thin quick if we trade from it.

Being stuck in mediocrity for another 1-2 years drafting guys in hope that they pan out to fill Dom a formula isn’t right.

Why isn't it? Doing that is the only reason we have any hope at all, it's how we landed Kakko and Lafreniere. What's the harm in one more?

Don't say losing will ruin the kids. It didn't ruin them when we got Lafreniere. We're not talking about losing for a decade. Most of these kids were not even here for long enough for a losing culture to set in.

The rangers got their first 1-2 picks in history. Keeping a losing/lackluster culture isn’t good for them or the rest of the kids. Nor would it be wasting 2 prime years of zibby/ panarin/kreids/trouba.

I could care less about the prime of Trouba and Kreider. There is some concern about trying to match up a Panarin window with Laf/Kakko/Fox. I tend to see Panarin as a player who will last until the mid thirties but as a second liner by that point. Which means at that point we need Kakko and Laf to be elite plus two more first liners. Same for Zibanejad. Where are they coming from? How are we coming up with two more players like that? Or are we just resigning ourselves to have to do another tear down and rebuild around 26 year old Kakko and Lafreniere?

 

[jay from jersey]

Those odds are like 1 in hundreds.

That's what we are banking the completion of our rebuild on?



I think we're on the edge. The edge of being a team with enough talent to be a Cup favorite versus merely a playoff team.

At one point after drafting Lafreniere we were in the fast lane to Cup favorite. A lot of wheels have fallen off since then. Things are not looking nearly as good today as they were when we won that lottery in 2020. Too many losses without enough quality coming back in - DeAngelo, Buch, Kravtsov. And none of these pieces were parlayed into needed extra top forwards. We have been bleeding assets.

Hey, we got Blais though, the kind of winger that shows up in free agency every damn year.



Not the forward group. The defensive pipeline is, but even that will get thin quick if we trade from it.



Why isn't it? Doing that is the only reason we have any hope at all, it's how we landed Kakko and Lafreniere. What's the harm in one more?

Don't say losing will ruin the kids. It didn't ruin them when we got Lafreniere. We're not talking about losing for a decade. Most of these kids were not even here for long enough for a losing culture to set in.



I could care less about the prime of Trouba and Kreider. There is some concern about trying to match up a Panarin window with Laf/Kakko/Fox. I tend to see Panarin as a player who will last until the mid thirties but as a second liner by that point. Which means at that point we need Kakko and Laf to be elite plus two more first liners. Same for Zibanejad.

So you proposed staying in a rebuild stage for another 1-2 years after obtains LaF and Kakko because according to Dom Deluises book we were on the fast lane to win the cup according to that formula?
Losing culture isn’t good for fans/coaches, young players, old players etc.
It’s very hard to wash that stink out and effectively turn the ship when losing has become an every day occurrence.
Your also saying out of all the prospects we have in our system, and will draft in the next 2 seasons won’t be more then 2/3/4 line players.
It’s also taking into account that the only young guys we have in LaF/kakko will get better as Zibby/panarin get worse.
I don’t bank on finding talent in the later rounds, but we’ve got a pretty good track record with Lundkvist/shesty/Dubinsky/Callahan /Robertson Jones etc
We had a lull for a couple of seasons but I’m not doubting that they can certainly add an impact player to the core of this team in later rounds

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

he was also younger than the others that didn’t even come close to him

Gram for gram, I still take Kuz

 

[mas0764]

So you proposed staying in a rebuild stage for another 1-2 years after obtains LaF and Kakko because according to Dom Deluises book we were on the fast lane to win the cup according to that formula?

I was proposing that last year. It's too late now. We are too good to tank (though I did say that if something unfortunate happened like a Panarin injury that wouldn't have effects beyond this year, and we missed the playoffs and won the lottery, that might be for the best ultimately).

I am proposing that in order to really cement our status as a contender we need another top end forward or two. We can try to make that now, but the target probably has to be Eichel. He would take away a lot of "now," problems because he's so elite. The third line wouldn't matter as much. That also means having to move probably Trouba (I pick him because of our defensive prospect depth, but Kreider also probably works).

If not Eichel then we are going to have to get creative. Kravstov better bring back a good return. If not, things are gonna get difficult. Gonna have to stretch your D prospect pipeline thin to bring in a top forward. Might have to move two of them to get a Lundell or something, I dunno. Or you're gonna have to try to trade some now talent to a team to get a pick to get up in this year's draft and get a stud center. Something.

There are answers to this problem but it's gonna be hard to pull off. Trading up in a draft is not impossible. Trading for young stars is not impossible. But it only gets harder as our assets age out, get more expensive, or otherwise move on.

But we put ourselves in this situation, because the team was too stubborn to consider moving DeAngelo after his 60 point pace season, or we refused to part with Kreider for Robertson and a first, or we insisted that Buch bring back "toughness," instead of actual hard to replace skill. Gotta win now and all! Morons.

 

[jay from jersey]

I was proposing that last year. It's too late now. We are too good to tank (though I did say that if something unfortunate happened like a Panarin injury that wouldn't have effects beyond this year, and we missed the playoffs and won the lottery, that might be for the best ultimately).

I am proposing that in order to really cement our status as a contender we need another top end forward or two. We can try to make that now, but the target probably has to be Eichel. He would take away a lot of "now," problems because he's so elite. The third line wouldn't matter as much. That also means having to move probably Trouba (I pick him because of our defensive prospect depth, but Kreider also probably works).

If not him then we are going to have to get creative. Kravstov better bring back a good return. If not, things are gonna get difficult. Gonna have to stretch your D prospect pipeline thin to bring in a top forward. Might have to move two of them to get a Lundell or something, I dunno. Or you're gonna have to try to trade some now talent to a team to get a pick to get up in this year's draft and get a stud center. Something.

There are answers to this problem but it's gonna be hard to pull off. Trading up in a draft is not impossible. Trading for young stars is not impossible. But it only gets harder as our assets age out, get more expensive, or otherwise move on.

But we put ourselves in this situation, because the team was too stubborn to consider moving DeAngelo after his 60 point pace season or we insisted that Buch bring back "toughness," instead of actual hard to replace skill. Gotta win now and all! Morons.

so if they trade for Larkin/Lindholm. Or sign Hertl in the offseason we’re back on schedule? we both know we’re not a finished product.
If I had my way,
Strome would be gone, chytil would have all year at 2C duties to see if he can take over/or we need to upgrade. And Barron would start at 3C all year with Goodrow so that next season, when we’re looking on to greener pastures, he gets his rookie mistakes/ learning year out of the way.
I also think we have 3-4 guys in the farm system that can really pop and become more then what their expected to be