Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXVI

[E-Train]

So....fire Gallant?

Drury. We’re missing another elite forward so the season is finished before it began. Dom Mxyzptlk has decreed.

 

[mas0764]

Drury. We’re missing another elite forward so the season is finished before it began. Dom mxyzptlk had decreed.

Pretty set in stone that we're not winning a Cup this year, yes.

 

[Yuck]

Drury. We’re missing another elite forward so the season is finished before it began. Dom mxyzptlk had decreed.

Yep, lets not waste our time with the games.

 

[Ned Braden]

Well I guess the guys that do this for a living see things differently. Maybe their idea of building a winning culture/team doesn't jive with guys like you and Dom. Perhaps they value the things a guy like Kreider brings to a lineup and are aware that it takes many different types of players to win championships.

Stop debating him. He just told another poster Pannaran doesn't get as high a skill grade because he lacks defensive prowess or something. So his skill equation isn't really a skill equation, it's and overall player equation, and this dude is just moving goal posts from one end of the field to another.

He's mad at Drury. The "pizza boy" nonsense is the tell...and there's nothing more to his equations than that.

 

[mas0764]

He just told another poster Pannaran doesn't get as high a skill grade because he lacks defensive prowess or something.

I said no such thing about "Pannaran."

I said win shares are apparently calculated by more than just points but that I don't know the formula.

 

[E-Train]

Pretty set in stone that we're not winning a Cup this year, yes.

I’ll still be watching. Just like I have for the previous 40 seasons.

 

[mas0764]

I’ll still be watching. Just like I have for the previous 40 seasons.

Me too. Who is saying otherwise?

 

[Atax]

Me too. Who is saying otherwise?

I thought you just plug numbers into weird algorithms and create graphics and decide which point player is needed for them to win. Kind of like a robot.

 

[mas0764]

I thought you just plug numbers into weird algorithms and create graphics and decide which point player is needed for them to win. Kind of like a robot.

Nope. Didn't say that at all.

Perhaps you'd like me to present you with the post again so you can actually read it instead of just seeing "Dom Luszczyszyn? Stats are for nerds I don't pay attention to anything for nerds lolz!111!"

 

[NYR Viper]

It would be difficult for me to post any sort of coherent explanation of the underlying math. I can cite his work and link you to his explanations but its behind a paywall.



My understanding is that the ratings are not simply based on point production, but on advanced stats that imply defensive prowess, possession dominance, things like that, and come up with an overall grade. Still, the players who you expect to be the highest graded generally are. It's wins added, but I can't offhand explain how he generates those numbers per se.



It's not.



As I said, it's not that linear.

Here are some excerpts from the article that explain what he's saying a little more:



and



To boil this down and make it a "checklist," for us, let's do that...

• Elite first-line centre that’s among the very best players in the world < -- Zibanejad (for now)
  
• Elite first-line winger to support the elite centre. <-- Panarin (for now)
  
• Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines. <-- Kakko and Lafreniere
  
• Top-line centre to play behind the elite centre. <-- We don't have this. Maybe Chytil. Probably not.
  
• Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six. <-- Kreider (for now) and Chytil
  
• Elite No. 1 defenceman. <-- Fox
  
• A second No. 1 defenceman to play behind him. <-- Who is this? Not sure. We have lots of options - Miller, Lundkvist, Schneider, Jones.
  
• A top pairing defenceman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2. <-- the same suspects as above.
  
• Another top-pairing calibre defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair. <-- Lindgren? Robertson?
  
• A top 10 calibre starting goaltender. <--- Shesterkin

So we are "mostly," there but we lack "for now/next year," still one top forward. Really a center, but that's where his model shouldn't be so rigid - it's ok if we are softer at center but had another top talent at wing in Kravtsov. It's also probably ok that the model calls for an elite center who is "one of the best players in the world," followed by an elite wing in support. In our case, we have the elite wing who is "one of the best players in the world," and it's really Zibanejad the center who is second fiddle to him. I think that divergence probably isn't that important since elite C is still checked off (for now).

But once Zibanejad and Panarin decline? Then there's trouble. Zibanejad, if he ages gracefully, easily projects to fill that "top line center to play behind the elite center," and once the cap goes up his salary should be affordable for that role as well. Who is the top center? What if things don't go as well? Etc.

As you can see I think to meet this criteria, even the "average," Cup winner, I think we need another top forward. To insulate against the future, I think we need two (but the second can be deep in the system and tucked away for the future).

I kinda feel like I'd still be in on Eichel and would move Trouba to accomplish it.

Then we are really cooking with a talent level that can win Cups. And has a window both now and later.

thanks, this makes much more sense

 

[Atax]

Nope. Didn't say that at all.

Perhaps you'd like me to present you with the post again so you can actually read it instead of just seeing "Dom Luszczyszyn? Stats are for nerds I don't pay attention to anything for nerds lolz!111!"

Im not against stats and the like. I dont trust my "eye test" for shit. I trust advanced statistics. My point is no one looked at that graph and found it helpful.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

The Dom L thing is an okay top down view at the talent level of teams in the league. I don't think he's as doctrinaire about it as his readers are, like he knows it always overrates the Leafs.

Most of our veteran players, you can probably slap a number next to them with their career stats, projected progression/regression according to age and you'll get close. I don't know what Kakko and Lafreniere are going to be this season. I've watched 50 games of K'Andre Miller and I have no idea if he's good or bad.

 

[aufheben]

But I have a counter assignment for you. Go look at the Rangers 2014 roster and the skill level on the multi Cup winner that beat us in the finals.

If you'd like the cliff notes...this roster has more skill than both those teams. Plenty of skill to win. We'll see if it has the other elements of hockey needed to be a contender...which is a little more realistic starting point than multi cup winner.

That’s hilarious.

 

[NYR Viper]

Nope. Didn't say that at all.

Perhaps you'd like me to present you with the post again so you can actually read it instead of just seeing "Dom Luszczyszyn? Stats are for nerds I don't pay attention to anything for nerds lolz!111!"

I think what you posted is coherent, just harder to grasp quickly like some advanced stats. The idea that this may be another transition year where not all of the pieces are here yet is more than likely unequivocally true. They need some of their young guys to take a step and then get some luck to be a true contender but I think they're moving in the right direction.

They may be missing another high-end forward but they should have the pieces to acquire that missing piece once it is determined who that right piece is.

 

[n8]

brain fart. Dylan Strome for Kravtsov. Just a thought. Probably a poor one.

 

[NYR Viper]

brain fart. Dylan Strome for Kravtsov. Just a thought. Probably a poor one.

I don't see where he would play honestly.

 

[duhmetreE]

To boil this down and make it a "checklist," for us, let's do that...

• Elite first-line centre that’s among the very best players in the world < -- Zibanejad (for now)
  
• Elite first-line winger to support the elite centre. <-- Panarin (for now)
  
• Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines. <-- Kakko and Lafreniere
  
• Top-line centre to play behind the elite centre. <-- We don't have this. Maybe Chytil. Probably not.
  
• Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six. <-- Kreider (for now) and Chytil
  
• Elite No. 1 defenceman. <-- Fox
  
• A second No. 1 defenceman to play behind him. <-- Who is this? Not sure. We have lots of options - Miller, Lundkvist, Schneider, Jones.
  
• A top pairing defenceman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2. <-- the same suspects as above.
  
• Another top-pairing calibre defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair. <-- Lindgren? Robertson?
  
• A top 10 calibre starting goaltender. <--- Shesterkin

But once Zibanejad and Panarin decline? Then there's trouble. Zibanejad, if he ages gracefully, easily projects to fill that "top line center to play behind the elite center," and once the cap goes up his salary should be affordable for that role as well. Who is the top center? What if things don't go as well? Etc.

As you can see I think to meet this criteria, even the "average," Cup winner, I think we need another top forward. To insulate against the future, I think we need two (but the second can be deep in the system and tucked away for the future).

I kinda feel like I'd still be in on Eichel and would move Trouba to accomplish it.

Then we are really cooking with a talent level that can win Cups. And has a window both now and later.

Here's my checklist. We have everything we need to win. BUT WHAT HAPPENS if/when they decline? What a weird argument.

We have everything. IF needed, we can add another Center like Larkin. Hopefully Chytil develops and Barron and Goodrow fill the 3C nicely. We wont know until they actually play

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I think what you posted is coherent, just harder to grasp quickly like some advanced stats. The idea that this may be another transition year where not all of the pieces are here yet is more than likely unequivocally true. They need some of their young guys to take a step and then get some luck to be a true contender but I think they're moving in the right direction.

They may be missing another high-end forward but they should have the pieces to acquire that missing piece once it is determined who that right piece is.

I don't think anyone is under the illusion the Rangers are winning a Cup this year but I don't buy they need another three All-Star level talents either. 95% of the pieces are here. Another acquisition or trade, along with the natural progression of guys like Laff, Kakko, Fox, Lundqvist should have them in a pretty good position in the next few years.

 

[mas0764]

Here's my checklist. We have everything we need to win. BUT WHAT HAPPENS if/when they decline? What a weird argument.

But we don't have everything according to the checklist, we are missing a center or at least one more top line forward if we don't want to be so rigid.

And yes, the future should be a concern. It should be our goal to have a team that continues to be a contender when Kakko and Laf are the ages that Panarin and Zibanejad are now.

Obviously you can't have everything in advance but I think one or two more top forwards is (or was) both attainable and wise.

 

[duhmetreE]

But we don't have everything, we are missing a center or at least one more top line forward if we don't want to be so rigid.

No we're not. We have everything. Strome is that guy this year. Hopefully Chytil can be that guy next year.

Next years roster is not final.

 

[McRanger92]

I find "analytics" to be more difficult to get fully on board with every passing year. There are useful tools, but part of me always thinks its more correlation then causation. Like Tampa's analytic profile looks good because they have a stacked team of good players, not the other way around.

Maybe I'm looking at it it to simplistically, but there's a reason they play the games. I guess im just getting older, but theres more than one way to skin a cat when it comes to winning a Cup

 

[mas0764]

No we're not. We have everything. Strome is that guy this year.

He's definitely not. And really Laf and Kakko aren't where they need to be yet either so this is basically entirely about the future and not next year anyway.

Hopefully Chytil can be that guy next year.

Next years roster is not final.

Well, it needs another top line center or forward even if Chytil establishes himself as reliably top 6. Which I do assume he will.

 

[duhmetreE]

He's definitely not. And really Laf and Kakko aren't where they need to be yet either so this is basically entirely about the future and not next year anyway.



Well, it needs another top line center or forward even if Chytil establishes himself as reliably top 6. Which I do assume he will.

So we need 3 top line centers?

We have more than enough skill on this roster. Skill will not be the problem. We need gamers. Guys that will over achieve in the playoffs. That is TBD because we haven't seen the kids play

 

[mas0764]

I find "analytics" to be more difficult to get fully on board with every passing year. There are useful tools, but part of me always thinks its more correlation then causation. Like Tampa's analytic profile looks good because they have a stacked team of good players, not the other way around.

Maybe I'm looking at it it to simplistically, but there's a reason they play the games. I guess im just getting older, but theres more than one way to skin a cat when it comes to winning a Cup

Would there be a difference if it was all correlation and not causation really?

So it's just a coincidence that all Cup winners check off like 80-90% of these boxes and make up for shortcomings elsewhere? Even if it was, in the absence of knowing the real cause shouldn't we try to duplicate that correlation?

 

[TheBPA]

He's definitely not. And really Laf and Kakko aren't where they need to be yet either so this is basically entirely about the future and not next year anyway.



Well, it needs another top line center or forward even if Chytil establishes himself as reliably top 6. Which I do assume he will.

How could you possibly know whether Laf and Kakko are where they need to be before they have played a game this year?

Let's play a few games before we declare certainties about how the roster will perform this May and in the next 3 playoff runs.