Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXIV

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Boston would have to give me Frederic who probably at best is a bottom 6 guy, studnika would be the must and a first. Knowing he’d def resugn with them
 
Boston would have to give me Frederic who probably at best is a bottom 6 guy, studnika would be the must and a first. Knowing he’d def resugn with them

It would be wise of Gorts to give teams permission to teams to talk to Hayes' agent.

For a team like WPG, they are picking up a pure rental since they have Connor, Trouba and Line due for contracts.

That's not the case with BOS.
 
I'd be willing to hedge my bets that I have ties closer to Quinn, and his tenure so far on the Rangers, than most - he is liked; and from just a fandom perspective I like him as well.

I also think he is doing well.
 
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So, I checked out for a while, since the team was off and I got swamped. Any new rumors with teeth to them in the last ~10 days? Or are we all still just going around and around on our own machinations? (Thanks in advance.)
 
So, I checked out for a while, since the team was off and I got swamped. Any new rumors with teeth to them in the last ~10 days? Or are we all still just going around and around on our own machinations? (Thanks in advance.)

Nothing really, scout watch has picked up the last few days. Rangers have been tailing Colorado and the Peg, maybe some Boston as well.
 
So, I checked out for a while, since the team was off and I got swamped. Any new rumors with teeth to them in the last ~10 days? Or are we all still just going around and around on our own machinations? (Thanks in advance.)

Not really, there were some mentioning of Colorado possibly being interested in Namestnikov instead of Kevin Hayes but it was possibly only speculation.

It sounds like Panarin getting moved is a real possibility. Its so odd, CBJ pushes hard to get Panarin to resign, then when talks break off and Panarin's agent goes out and say that there is no way no how he will sign with CBJ before the season ends -- Jarmo K goes out and say that "we will make tough decision if we have to". If we have to what? Nothing is unclear at the point he made that statement.

The Muzzin trade is an illustration of what it will take for Gorts to pull the trigger on a deal way before the deadline. If someone offers a 1st for Zucc, he will get moved instantly.

Gorts is trading Zucc for a 1st or to the highest bidder 5 minutes before the deadline, basically (of course some variation deemed to be worth as much as a 1st is also thinkable). Same for McQuaid but I think the asking price is harder to establish. A 2nd round pick?

My bet is that both Shatty and Namestnikov will get traded if possible. Look at both player's usage, Brooks wrote that article about it being a must that Quinn gave Shatty more ice time to boost his trade value. From that point, more or less, Shatty was played a lot more. Namestnikov is in the same boat. He has his spot now. I am not impressed with his play at all. I would bet against low odds that Names is getting moved before the deadline ends. Shatty? I don't think its impossible either. How about B Smith?

The big question mark from my POV is Kevin Hayes. I think Gorton will move Ziba or Kreider if he gets a big haul. I think very very few teams in this league are in the business of giving up that haul and that its unlikely that something will get done. How about Kevin Hayes? If the return is a late 1st and a B-tier prospect, maybe a slight plus, some kind of conditional pick on him resigning, is he getting moved or resigned?
 


The above is important to remember. I earlier pitched the idea of trading Lundkvist and Namestnikov for Colorado's 1st, probably in the 12-16 range. Of course that trade is totally dependable of what you think of Nils Lundkvist. But I think that Gorton really must focus on getting up in the 1st round. There is very little difference between pick 30 and pick 50. Getting like Tampa's 1st is very crappy compared to getting Colorado's 1st...
 


The above is important to remember. I earlier pitched the idea of trading Lundkvist and Namestnikov for Colorado's 1st, probably in the 12-16 range. Of course that trade is totally dependable of what you think of Nils Lundkvist. But I think that Gorton really must focus on getting up in the 1st round. There is very little difference between pick 30 and pick 50. Getting like Tampa's 1st is very crappy compared to getting Colorado's 1st...


I don't know, I wouldn't take this to heart. I love statistics, but this implies certain playoff successes. With the current structure of the playoffs, where 2 great teams can meet in earlier rounds, it isn't unlikely for a good team to be knocked out much earlier then they project.

Also, we have to take into account first the multiplication factor of having the 'appearance' of multiple first round picks and the GM's that few them as such. It's pretty obvious there are still many 'old guard' GM's who see the difference between pick #27 and pick #33 as hugely different due to the labeling of first rounder.

Thus stacking 1st round picks (of course the higher the better) should give us a much better shot at packaging them together to move up even higher then our original draft position.

I could imagine a situation where we end up with the 4th or 5th overall and want to move up to 2nd or 3rd. I can guess that it would be far more attractive to a team to add another late 1st to our pick to overtake them, whereas it would probably necessitate 2 or 3 2nd round picks (irrespective of range) to make up for the lack of the 1st.
 
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I don't know, I wouldn't take this to heart. I love statistics, but this implies certain playoff successes. With the current structure of the playoffs, where 2 great teams can meet in earlier rounds, it isn't unlikely for a good team to be knocked out much earlier then they project.

Also, we have to take into account first the multiplication factor of having the 'appearance' of multiple first round picks and the GM's that few them as such. It's pretty obvious there are still many 'old guard' GM's who see the difference between pick #27 and pick #33 as hugely different due to the labeling of first rounder.

Thus stacking 1st round picks (of course the higher the better) should give us a much better shot at packaging them together to move up even higher then our original draft position.

I could imagine a situation where we end up with the 4th or 5th overall and want to move up to 2nd or 3rd. I can guess that it would be far more attractive to a team to add another late 1st to our pick to overtake them, whereas it would probably necessitate 2 or 3 2nd round picks (irrespective of range) to make up for the lack of the 1st.

Very good points!

I think the big take-away -- that certainly have caught my attention from when I started to see these numbers -- is just how steep the drop-off is from the mid 1st to late 1st, AND how little difference there is between a late 1st and 2nd-3rd round pick.

But like you say, there are many factors to consider. And its probably not just older GM's actually valuing these picks wrong -- I think a big factor is the public perception of a trade. Like look at Gorton's trade with Yzerman. If he makes that trade with say Philly and instead trade McDonagh and Miller for Howden, Hajak and a 2nd and a 3rd round pick -- how much more heat does he take for the trade? Now he got a "1st" and a conditional "1st" instead, it does sound a lot better.
 
Ok here's the thing. Buchnevich is not an elite player. He's not a perfect player. He's going to be streaky. He's going to have long slumps. He's going to have times he looks disinterested. That is what happens with offensive players who aren't elite players. It's called variance.

However he's shown in his three years he can provide offense. The team generally gets a good shot share with him on the ice. The team has never been outscored in a season with him on the ice. He does create a lot of turnovers and is in like the 75th percentile of forwards there. He is good on the powerplay and has scored a lot there. However he's not the best skater. He's not very strong on the boards or on his skates. He constantly looks like he's completely out of breath. However in spite of those flaws he has produced well in the 150 or so games he has played. There comes a point where you have to forget about how a player gets it done and just worry about whether or not they do get it done. Has he been as good this year as last year? No. Does having a lot of time on the 4th line help? Definitely not. Is it also on him to play better? Yes.

But I find it amazing the hoops people go through to criticize one of the teams actually better young players - a former 3rd round pick who is 23 years old who has far exceeded the expectations of his draft slot - because they had unrealistic expectations about what he would be when they came over. He's not a Kuznetsov or a Panarin or a Radulov. He produces more like a...Kostitsyn. And that's fine. Everyone can't be a first liner. And we go through and praise lesser players like Howden for skating hard and doing the right thing despite their production being awful. Hockey has this culture where people are so concerned about fitting in to a team identity and knocking out all individualism that anyone who looks like they play the game "the right way" gets praised and anyone who may do things a little bit differently gets ostracized.

Pavel Buchnevich should not been used on the 4th line in the first place with very limited talented players on that line. It`s mainly energy players like Fast or Mcloed which should be used on such a line. And the main reason when coaches like AV seldom time used Fast on the 2nd line was, because we lack franchise depth on talent in top 6. And that is probably the only reason now that Fast sometimes play in top 6 before he visible start to kill all offense and was moved, because his skillset is very limited.

Next game Howden is out with Knee Sprain - and remove either Pionk or Smith if Zucc is ready, and use Pavel Buchnevich with Chytil & Strome. Fast should play in the bottom 6 so the lineup will look like this to get the most out of Pavel Buchnevich.

Top 6

Kreider - Zib - Zucc
Strome - Chytil - Pavel Buchnevich

Bottom 6

3rd line let Namestnikov center it.

- Pavel Buchnevich has 15 pts. in 32 games which is not bad consider how the coach is using him on the 4th line with limited ice time. In comparison to Fast who sometimes get top 6 minutes 17 pts. in 44 games. Namestnikov 16 pts. in 45 games.

I still defend Pavel here who struggle sometimes, but don`t move him at any cost in a trade in Quinn`s first NHL season as a coach and system. I still believe in Pavel Buchnevich offensive skillset based on last season with AV when he had a record season, 43 points when the whole team struggled with major injury issues.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich should not been used on the 4th line in the first place with very limited talented players on that line. It`s mainly energy players like Fast or Mcloed which should be used on such a line. And the main reason when coaches like AV seldom time used Fast on the 2nd line was, because we lack franchise depth on talent in top 6. And that is probably the only reason now that Fast sometimes play in top 6 before he visible start to kill all offense and was moved, because his skillset is very limited.

Next game Howden is out with Knee Sprain - and remove either Pionk or Smith if Zucc is ready, and use Pavel Buchnevich with Chytil & Strome. Fast should play in the bottom 6 so the lineup will look like this to get the most out of Pavel Buchnevich.

Top 6

Kreider - Zib - Zucc
Strome - Chytil - Pavel Buchnevich

Bottom 6

3rd line let Namestnikov center it.

- Pavel Buchnevich has 15 pts. in 32 games which is not bad consider how the coach is using him on the 4th line with limited ice time. In comparison to Fast who sometimes get top 6 minutes 17 pts. in 44 games. Namestnikov 16 pts. in 45 games.

I still defend Pavel here who struggle sometimes, but don`t move him at any cost in a trade in Quinn`s first NHL season as a coach and system. I still believe in Pavel Buchnevich offensive skillset based on last season with AV when he had a record season, 43 points when the whole team struggled with major injury issues.

If Buch is going to be mainstay on the top 6, he needs to either score more consistently or find other ways to add value. Right now he’s a one-trick pony who doesn’t always perform that trick.
 
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A couple too many years of watch the guys we really wanted get drafted before us... Gorts needs to smart up and realize we need to tank or else we’ll miss out on top players again
 
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Very important loss for Quinn tonight. I approve.

I thought they played very well last night, these are the kind of games they should be playing. Play hard and well even if they don’t win. The wins will come , but think it’s time to put a fork into this season, well kinda felt like that about 10 games ago. But next year I am not sitting through another tank. They need to contend.
 
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I thought they played very well last night, these are the kind of games they should be playing. Play hard and well even if they don’t win. The wins will come , but think it’s time to put a fork into this season, well kinda felt like that about 10 games ago. But next year I am not sitting through another tank. They need to contend.

Think you’re going to continually be disappointed if the options are tanking and contending.
 
A couple too many years of watch the guys we really wanted get drafted before us... Gorts needs to smart up and realize we need to tank or else we’ll miss out on top players again

We’re going to get a top 10, possibly top 5 pick.

If they stay out of the free agent market this summer, be prepared for even further sucking next year. Lottery picks are coming
 
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With Toronto trading for Muzzin, they are likely no longer interested in any of the Carolina dmen. If Carolina does trade one of their dmen, they will most definitely want some immediate offensive help back.

Is there a deal there to be made between the Rangers and Carolina? Hayes is a pending UFA, but if we gave Carolina permission to talk to Hayes and they could work out a deal, could something be done around Hayes and Pesce?
 
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