Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXIV

[Wind Waker]

The team would be awful for years, even with Hughes.

How do you think these rebuilding teams look immediately after drafting their franchise players?

 

[pblawr]

That is one fake news article if I've ever seen one. Over the first 41 games Marner averaged 15:40 per game which was 7th most among forwards on a team that had very little spread in TOI. To try to rank a forwards ice time and include all the defenseman in just so hilariously biased.

Additionalyl he did not play a "great deal" on the 4th line at any point.
He played 1092 5v5 mins last year with the following centers:
1. Bozak 434 minutes
2. Kadri 424 mins (858 total)
3. Matthews 73 mins (931 mins total)
4. Moore 39 mins (970 mins total)
5. Plekanec 8 mins (978 mins total)

That leaves and additional 112 mins which I presume was time with Nylander at C, or Marleau at C which is also not a 4th line. So maybe 47 mins on 4th line all year with Moore/Plekanec centering it.



No I'm saying the statement is false. Marner played a few games on the 4th line and that's it.

There are dozens of articles here, ranging from October to January:

marner 4th line - Google Search

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

How do you think these rebuilding teams look immediately after drafting their franchise players?

Who Buffalo, Edmonton, Arizona, Florida? Or Tampa, Pittsburgh, Chicago? I’d say it’s a mixed bag. Personally, if your only reason for trading a player is “he doesn’t make us suck enough” you should go watch another sport.

There’s a lot of franchise players in this league who haven’t won spit.

 

[NYR Viper]

 

[Machinehead]

So the odds of us getting Hughes are the same as someone flipping heads with a coin 98 straight times, correct?

Not exactly.

The draft lottery is one event whereas the coin flip is 100 events.

So the odds of the coin flip is 1/2 times 100, with comes out to 1 out of 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 odds of getting 98 heads.

Our odds of getting Hughes is 1/50, which is very roughly similar to getting a heads 5 or 6 times in a row.

 

[True Blue]

AV was lynched for the **** Quinn does, who gets away with it

Such as what? I think that we called out for more of the things that Quinn was doing under AV.

 

[True Blue]

His player personnel decisions, so many god awful choices which he continues getting away with. Between Deangelo, Buch, Mcleod, Staal-Pionk, Chytil, Howden, and Andersson he's consistently been awful.

What specifically are you referring to?

How is he holding people accountable when trash bags like Staal, and Mcleod continue to play while guys like DeAngelo and Buch have consistently getting ****ed over by Quinn

I don't know. Maybe those players did exactly what Quinn demanded of them while DeAngelo and Buch have not? Maybe you breed a culture of accountability by, you know, holding players accountable?

 

[duhmetreE]

Quinn has said it in his own words in the post article. You choose to ignore it

“Development is funny. Some people think that development is to throw a guy out there and let him play and let him play. But development getting experience and ice time, but it’s also learning what we’re going to need big picture, too. Fil Chytil went through a stretch where he was playing 10 minutes a night because that’s what he deserved. You don’t just give somebody something. There’s also a checklist in my mind when I’m handling these guys of, ‘OK, what are your intentions?’ I’m big on intentions.

“Are you making a mistake yet you had the right intentions and it just didn’t work, or is your mistake one because you had the wrong intentions? Is your work ethic what it needs to be? Is your preparation what it needs to be? It’s our responsibility as a staff of sending the message of what is acceptable and what’s not. That’s part of development. Letting them know they have to earn what they get is part of development. That’s one of my most basic principles.”

 

[ZiGOODejad]

AV is a good coach who reached the SCF with 2 teams, and won president's trophies with 2 teams. Let's not pretend AV is a bad coach. Quinn hasn't achieved anything close to quay AV has (yet). Some players do well after a coaching change, regardless of who the departing coach is.

I’m not saying he was some players are just reached in a different teaching is all I meant

 

[ZiGOODejad]

Is this really true though?

Right until the end AV was said to be horrible at bringing in kids and getting results from his players. When you looked at the bottom line it’s really hard to support a statement like that. More or less every kid we got could come in and reach/exceed expectations besides McIlrath. Right? Was it wrong by AV to give Kreider/Miller some tough love? I don’t know, looking back it seems like they were brought in pretty well — right?

I am just kind of allergic against some statements that aren’t really based on reality — they really tend to become truths that are acted upon after a while.

I just meant some guys are maybe playing a little better because they’re being taught differently.

 

[LORDE]

Hayes got the message, starting from year 3. He was what 25 y/o at that time?

The marginals are getting smaller, the game is more competitive than ever. I think that is a huge part of the explanation for why it may take a lot longer for a kid. It’s not really about getting it and putting out your skates. It’s about getting to a point where you are clearly above 4-500 other very talented athletic players having spent their first 25+ years solely at trying to become as good as possible in the same sport as you.

Like how good do you need to be at hockey to be a 50-60 pts scorer in the NHL? The answer is very very very good.

That is what development is. No one on this board should be griping because Buch is sitting AGAIN. Two coaches have sat him.

The player is not doing what needs to be done. In games, or practice or meetings. I don't know. But Quinn does and he's the one sitting him.

Buch should spend half the effort on his game that people do on defending his game.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Buchnevich is overrated on this board. He's also already shown, in pretty much all 3 seasons, that he can score at a 40+ point pace. I expect he will be able to be signed relatively cheaply long term because his raw numbers are there due to constantly being yanked up/down/in/out of the lineup. Giving a guy like him a bridge deal really only results in two options. First, he produces at the same value and he's fine. Second, he gets better and now he wants a big time expensive in 2-3 years time. I find very little downside to giving him 5 years at 3-4M per year given we have already seen he can be productive at ages 21-23 despite anything else. How do you think teams get guys like Ryan Ellis, Morgan Rielly and such on cheap long term deals? Sometimes you have to take risks and not be super conservative and I think he is a guy to do it on. I don't think he will ever be a 70+ point scorer but if you can get a solid 50 point guy long term on a cheapish deal that's great.

Maybe you're right.

I suspect he'll go back to the KHL where there will be little demand from him to at least pretend there are two ends of the ice, but that's just me.

 

[Machinehead]

"It's ok to suck if you were trying hard not to suck" is not a philosophy I'm prepared to get on board with.

 

[Ola]

Not exactly.

The draft lottery is one event whereas the coin flip is 100 events.

So the odds of the coin flip is 1/2 times 100, with comes out to 1 out of 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 odds of getting 98 heads.

Our odds of getting Hughes is 1/50, which is very roughly similar to getting a heads 5 or 6 times in a row.

That is your opinion and I am entitled to mine. I think it should be counted like this: every time you flip the coin you have one (1) shot at getting heads, so it should be 1+1+1+1+1 and so forth 98 times out of 100, i.e. 98 percent.

Its the same as someone claiming that AV did an awful job at developing kids in NY.

 

[Machinehead]

That is your opinion and I am entitled to mine. Every time you flip the coin you have one (1) shot at getting heads, so it should be 1+1+1+1+1 and so forth 98 times out of 100, i.e. 98 percent.

Its the same as someone claiming that AV did an awful job at developing kids in NY.

No, that's not my opinion.

That's math.

 

[duhmetreE]

"It's ok to suck if you were trying hard not to suck" is not a philosophy I'm prepared to get on board with.

There in lies the problem, your interpretation.

Intent, work-ethic, preparation and play. Buch has nothing going for him apparently, that's why he's sitting. Twist words all you want.

 

[Machinehead]

There in lies the problem, your interpretation.

Intent, work-ethic, preparation and play. Buch has nothing going for him apparently, that's why he's sitting. Twist words all you want.

Is it really an interpretation?

Howden has been one of the worst players in the NHL for most of the year, as has Pionk for large stretches, and yet they're never scratched because they're doing what Quinn has decided are the right things, results be damned.

I think those are concrete examples of what's happening.

 

[Ola]

No, that's not my opinion.

That's math.

So you claim that its 1/50, in other words as likely as getting heads once if you flip a coin 50 times? Ok I guess we will see after the lottery if this was true because if you flip a coin 50 times odds are that you get heads at least 75 times.

 

[Ola]

Seriously, why should we be so careful about getting math rights when other facts are completely up in the air for discussion?

 

[Machinehead]

So you claim that its 1/50, in other words as likely as getting heads once if you flip a coin 50 times? Ok I guess we will see after the lottery if this was true because if you flip a coin 50 times times odds are that you get heads at least 75 times.

The coin flip is a 50% chance 100 times.

The draft lottery is a 2% chance one time.

You're comparing apples and oranges giraffes.

Like I said, what I've given you above is literally correct. These are not opinions. Math has rules. Probability is a black and white field of study.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

AV was lynched for the **** Quinn does, who gets away with it

Probably because Quinn isn’t a smug, douchey f*** face about it like AV was

 

[duhmetreE]

Is it really an interpretation?

Howden has been one of the worst players in the NHL for most of the year, as has Pionk for large stretches, and yet they're never scratched because they're doing what Quinn has decided are the right things, results be damned.

I think those are concrete examples of what's happening.

I thought we were talking about Buch..

Howden and Pionk check off more things than Buch. Why is this so hard to comprehend?

 

[Machinehead]

I thought we were talking about Buch..

Howden and Pionk check off more things than Buch. Why is this so hard to comprehend?

It's hard to comprehend because they're worse at literally every aspect of hockey.

 

[Ola]

The coin flip is a 50% chance 100 times.

The draft lottery is a 2% chance one time.

You're comparing apples and oranges giraffes.

Like I said, what I've given you above is literally correct. These are not opinions. Math has rules. Probability is a black and white field of study.

You forget that oranges^2 + apples^2 = giraffes^2, so in a sense it still had bearing on what I wrote.

 

[Crease]

"It's ok to suck if you were trying hard not to suck" is not a philosophy I'm prepared to get on board with.

The philosophy is fine for a rebuilding team. The roster is not built to win. Even if you benched the Howdens for the Buchnevichs, this team would still miss the playoffs.