Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXII

[NYR Viper]

This is the Kreider we all know and love and this is EXACTLY why he will get 7 years @ ~$6.5-7m per season. He will be 29 when his contract starts. Using foresight, how do we expect this to end? 33 years old, 34 years, old, 35 years old, 36 years old. We expect a player who relies almost solely on his physical gifts to be a difference maker to age well?

Stick to the course, accrue more pieces. Keep an eye out for the right player to become available.

 

[Edge]

Last I checked, 14 other teams passed on Tarasenko.

Like I said, hindsight is 20-20.

I can see both sides of this issue.

I think Tarasenko and Getzlaf get mentioned a lot for a few reasons:

1. The board was keenly aware of both of them, prior to the draft.
2. They were guys who were heavily pushed by some of the prospect observers of the time (including myself).
3. They both also happened to fit major needs of the team.
4. The misses were so spectacular in their nature. It's not like we came away with someone who played in the NHL, but wasn't as good as the guy we liked/could've had.

To those points, I think that's a big reason you see Taranseko and Getzlaf come up, as oppossed to names like Fowler or Jeff Carter in the same drafts. Both of those guys have gone on to have long NHL careers, but neither was a preferred target of this board.

Likewise, there's a feeling that we could see some of this coming. Any time the board feels it can see a bad result, the pushback is going to be magnified. Jessiman, McIlrath, and even Andersson generated that kind of pushback because the board felt like the reward wasn't there in the first place --- though it remains to be seen how that 2017 draft shapes up.

The board tends to be more forgiving on prospects that it liked, and for whom their support at the time of the draft. So while guys like Brendl, Lundmark and Montoya busted, they weren't unpopular picks. Additionally, there's less of a clear connection to a prospect that the board wanted who went on to hit jackpot.

Having said all that, I think the age of the internet keeps wounds alive longer and makes it harder to move on --- or at least recognize the passage of time. McIlrath is going on 10 years ago, and Jessiman is going on 17 years this summer. But weren't really referencing Jay More or Michael Stewart 17 years after they were drafted. And both of those drafts saw some really prime, HOF-level talent still on the board.

 

[bobbop]

I’m still grieving that we passed on Mike Bossy. Twice.

 

[NYRangers0723]

This is the Kreider we all know and love and this is EXACTLY why he will get 7 years @ ~$6.5-7m per season. He will be 29 when his contract starts. Using foresight, how do we expect this to end? 33 years old, 34 years, old, 35 years old, 36 years old. We expect a player who relies almost solely on his physical gifts to be a difference maker to age well?

Stick to the course, accrue more pieces. Keep an eye out for the right player to become available.

Kreider is a guy who takes care of himself physically extremely well. I think he can remain fast and strong for a while.

 

[Kovalev27]

I throw up in my mouth a little when I see the suggestion to just buy Kreider out in a couple years

Seems incredibly short sighted

oh stop you know quite well what I meant. If things go to hell you do have a fail safe. You can buy a guy out. Do I think Kreider will be a hell of a player for the next 5 years. Absolutely. That’s all any gm or team worries about the next 3 to 5 years.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Kreider is a guy who takes care of himself physically extremely well. I think he can remain fast and strong for a while.

I think Kreider's fitness is top notch, but this is a professional sport. a lot of these guys are taking care of themselves well. Some just do it better than others

The history with guys like him after 30 aren't kind.

 

[NYRangers0723]

I think Kreider's fitness is top notch, but this is a professional sport. a lot of these guys are taking care of themselves well. Some just do it better than others

The history with guys like him after 30 aren't kind.

Yes but some guys can do it, I think Kreider is one of those guys. He had the blood clot came back earlier than expected and didn’t miss a beat

 

[Kovalev27]

I think Kreider's fitness is top notch, but this is a professional sport. a lot of these guys are taking care of themselves well. Some just do it better than others

The history with guys like him after 30 aren't kind.

when you say that are you talking about power forwards who usually aren’t the best skaters in the first place? Or are you talking about over 30 players who are elite skating talents and physical freaks because I don’t know anyone who goes from being one of if not the fastest guys in the league to not being able to play going thru their early 30s

 

[True Blue]

I'd think they could take the one Brooks article which poo poos them for doing so and just move on.

No one is going to storm MSG, but I am betting it is worse than that.

 

[Vitto79]

Hajek down is fine he needs to play. Lindgren seems to have earned a spot. Really its just that Staal spot that we all want a kid in.

Assuming Rykov still not up?

Also can they trade Smith now at 50% off? he may have some value....maybe?

 

[Edge]

This is the Kreider we all know and love and this is EXACTLY why he will get 7 years @ ~$6.5-7m per season. He will be 29 when his contract starts. Using foresight, how do we expect this to end? 33 years old, 34 years, old, 35 years old, 36 years old. We expect a player who relies almost solely on his physical gifts to be a difference maker to age well?

Stick to the course, accrue more pieces. Keep an eye out for the right player to become available.

I think there's a solid argument that Kreider's skating will age well and that he can have a place in the NHL because of his stronger assets.

I also think there are two elements that get severely overlooked, that play a role into the term we are talking about:

1. While we can argue that Kreider's more appealing attributes might age well, I think you also have to figure that his less appealing traits could also magnify as well. Streaky players tend to see that trait increase with age as recovery times take longer, wear and tear accumulates faster, and the league around them gets younger (thus somewhat negating their once bountiful physical gifts).

2. Speaking to some of those last points, you're going to be looking at a guy with quite a bit of mileage under the hood in the coming years. And the dangers of having a player who relies on physical gifts, as opposed to internal traits like IQ or awareness, is that said physical gifts come with a shelf life. A high IQ player can lose some speed, but still unlock paths to success. But what is Kreider if he starts to lose said speed? How big is that toll on the overall package he brings? Because, let's face it, he's not going to compensate with a high IQ, world-class hands, or his relentless pursuit of the puck.

One of the big selling points for people who wanted to sign Panarin was the later start to his North American career, and that he didn't necessarily have a lot of hard miles on his body.

At this point, Kreider has roughly two fulls year of additional mileage on his body, including playoffs, and will be already be turning 30 at the conclusion of the first year of his next contract.

And again, even if we clear room for next season with Kreider (we move Strome, we move Buch, we move whoever), we will still have what amounts to an immovable contract on the roster until the year 2027. I'm just not sure the juice is quite worth the squeeze on this one.

 

[aufheben]

when you say that are you talking about power forwards who usually aren’t the best skaters in the first place? Or are you talking about over 30 players who are elite skating talents and physical freaks because I don’t know anyone who goes from being one of if not the fastest guys in the league to not being able to play going thru their early 30s

The concern with Kreider for me is re-signing other players, like Zibanejad.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I think the real motivation with buying someone out is opening up a roster spot..

I’m looking at you, Marc Stallll.

Marc Staal appreciates you calling out Marc Stall.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Yes but some guys can do it, I think Kreider is one of those guys. He had the blood clot came back earlier than expected and didn’t miss a beat

Recent history tells us power forwards don't age well, and you're basically praying Kreider doesn't fall into the majority category. Just doesn't seem like it's worth the risk to me.

when you say that are you talking about power forwards who usually aren’t the best skaters in the first place? Or are you talking about over 30 players who are elite skating talents and physical freaks because I don’t know anyone who goes from being one of if not the fastest guys in the league to not being able to play going thru their early 30s

Every team thinks their player they just signed is going to beat the odds until they don't.

The risk/reward as it relates to where this team is at in their rebuild process isn't worth it to me

 

[True Blue]

We expect a player who relies almost solely on his physical gifts to be a difference maker to age well?

Difference maker at 34 or 35? Probably not. But still a great net front presence and along the boards.

BTW, what player does not rely on physical gifts? Think Panarin's speed will not be an issue when he gets older? All players get old. Thing with Kreider is that he is in much better shape than most.

 

[Edge]

Yes but some guys can do it, I think Kreider is one of those guys. He had the blood clot came back earlier than expected and didn’t miss a beat

I'm worried that if what's below the neck starts to slip, and it will, what's above the neck is not going to be able to compensate for that.

The basis for believing in Kreider's long-term viability seems to hinge on him being an athletic freak, but that's major risk to me.

Freak or not, that's still a big frame, that's going to keep putting miles on the odometer, and doesn't necessarily have a wealth of finely tuned skills that will pick up the slack if the body does what it tends to do when subjected to the pounding of an NHL schedule.

 

[Edge]

Difference maker at 34 or 35? Probably not. But still a great net front presence and along the boards.

BTW, what player does not rely on physical gifts? Think Panarin's speed will not be an issue when he gets older? All players get old. Thing with Kreider is that he is in much better shape than most.

I think Panarin still has his IQ, his vision, his stickhandling, his shot, his awareness and other skills to rely on if the skating slips.

To me, that's a big difference. Kind of like a savings account.

All of us are going to have shit that comes over the years, and expenses that go with it.

But those expenses are easier to cover if you have a high salary and deep reserve. If the salary is lower to start with, and the savings not nearly as deep, the challenges add up quicker.

 

[NYRangers0723]

I'm worried that if what's below the neck starts to slip, and it will, what's above the neck is not going to be able to compensate for that.

The basis for believing in Kreider's long-term viability seems to hinge on him being an athletic freak, but that's major risk to me.

Freak or not, that's still a big frame, that's going to keep putting miles on the odometer, and doesn't necessarily have a wealth of finely tuned skills that will pick up the slack if the body does what it tends to do when subjected to the pounding of an NHL schedule

.

I’m sorry but the whole “Kreider has a low hockey IQ” things is bullshit IMO. Over the years his defense had gotten much much better and many times he is out there at the end defending a 1 goal lead when they pull the goalie. Even his penalties have decreased but playing physical game you are gonna get penalties that’s just reality

 

[mas0764]

I'd trade all of them, but if you keep Kreider you have to move Buch and Skjei.

 

[Metranger]

I don't recall Kreider playing this consistently well for as long a period of time in the past. Isn't that his rap? That he is capable of skating blithely round and round contributing minimal to nothing?

Which Kreider will the majority of his new contract see. If the Rangers were guaranteed that the recent level of play would be the game to game expected play from Kreider for years, then signing him might be a good thing.

 

[Edge]

I’m sorry but the whole “Kreider has a low hockey IQ” things is bull**** IMO. Over the years his defense had gotten much much better and many times he is out there at the end defending a 1 goal lead when they pull the goalie. Even his penalties have decreased but playing physical game you are gonna get penalties that’s just reality

It's not even a low IQ debate, it's a matter of whether it's enough to carry him if the physical stuff slides --- which it likely will.

It's not a low vs. high debate, it's a checklist of skills across the board that exist beyond his skating.

If I'm going to bet on someone into their 30s, on a large, multi-year contract, that will have a movement clause, I feel like I need to be sold on more than his skating and physical gifts.

 

[Tawnos]

With all the dead cap space we have next year, I don't understand why some are so eager to buy players out for next season.

Dead cap space + Staal/Smith costs more than dead cap space + Staal/Smith buyout.

 

[Tawnos]

I still laugh at the fool's errand of trying to predict when a player will decline and by how much.

 

[Kovalev27]

Recent history tells us power forwards don't age well, and you're basically praying Kreider doesn't fall into the majority category. Just doesn't seem like it's worth the risk to me.


Every team thinks their player they just signed is going to beat the odds until they don't.

The risk/reward as it relates to where this team is at in their rebuild process isn't worth it to me

That’s not what I asked you though the odds to beat aren’t as great when you’re talking about elite skaters in this league. They play alot longer than those that just rely on strength or skill. Kreider is both strong and an elite skater and has carved out a role as THE top net front presence in the league. While also being the fastest guy not named mcdavid. That’s all going way by the time he’s 34 35? I doubt it. Certainly not in the next 3 to 5 years. But again most teams have guys in the last year or two of deals that have declined. You can’t let everyone go because maybe at the end of their contracts they won’t be the same guy they are at the beginning.

 

[Edge]

I still laugh at the fool's errand of trying to predict when a player will decline and by how much.

You can't predict, so much as you try to evaluate the risk/reward and your odds of success.

I think people focus on the unpredictability aspect of sports and treat it like it's some kind of great mystery that isn't present in almost every aspect of daily life.

We can't predict when anyone will die. But who do you think is more likely to last longer, the 350 pound guy with high blood pressure and a smoking habit, or the guy who's in shape and lives a clean lifestyle?

The latter can drop dead while jogging, or get hit by a car, but most people would still see him as the safer bet.

In some or fashion, most debates on contracts come down to a lot of the same principles.