Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXI

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Half the league would have taken DeBrincat in a do-over. Probably the same for Girard. A lot of teams miss--every year there are a handful of guys who should have gone round one that didn't. But that doesn't make other guys who did go in the first unworthy.

Maybe to you, that might be the case. I’d rather take my chances on a boom or bust pick than someone like Howden, whose likely projection was that of a good 3rd line center, especially if you’re a team like Tampa was at that time, deep and young enough to afford to be able to swing for the fence.

Having watched both Katchouk and Howden a lot in junior (especially Katchouk), I would take Howden every day of the week. I definitely think Howden would be matching Katchouk's AHL production if he was down there where he should be. Raddysh, probably a toss up for me. I have zero interest in Carter Hart, and certainly nowhere near round one. Kyrou I would have taken over Howden.

That’s fine, we’ll never agree on Hart or Raddysh, who I think were both slam dunks for me, but I think those two players both end up way better players at their position at the NHL level than Howden does.

Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.

Anyway, I know why Howden is up. He's here because we're ****. The other guys aren't up because for many of them, their teams are not ****! Howden should be in the AHL, I have said this repeatedly. It just seems that people are now panning him, calling him unworthy of a first round pick, because we've put him in a position to fail. If we weren't ****, he'd be in the AHL like the others and he'd probably be doing really well and everyone would still be excited about him.

Would that change the mindset? Possibly, but I still don’t like the player and don’t think he should have been a major piece in that trade.

Howden has been a big time prospect since he entered the WHL years ago. He had an accomplished junior career. He was good for Team Canada. Literally everyone had him pegged as a first round pick, because of his tangible and intangible skills. He absolutely deserved to be drafted in round one. No doubt about it. That he's being asked to do too much shouldn't diminish his stock, at least relative to his peers who haven't been put in the same position to fail. You want to cherry pick guys from round two or later that should have gone in front of him, fine, but that's lots of players in every round one.

Big time prospect? I wouldn’t say that. I’d say a good prospect. When you use words like that, it implies near the top and he’s never been that type of prospect.

Asked to do too much? Who is asking him to do too much? Quinn? He has him as a 3rd line center.

Just because some think that he doesn’t have upside worth being a 1st rounder doesn’t mean that anyone is asking too much of him. It means we don’t see the upside in a player that was a safe pick and nothing more.
 
McD/Miller trade won't be fully able to assess for years.

Let's see what Namestnikov brings back either this TDL or the next. What if that pick turns into an Arvidson or Johnny Gaudreau? (I know this is the Rangers so it's more than likely going to be at best a Callahan or Dubi type...AT BEST).

Howden is only beginning, let's see if Hajek is called up post TDL and what he looks like, and also what Nils L does. He'll probably be one of those underrated non sexy players who goes under the radar for like half a decade or more.
 
Howden has not just been invisible though. He has been really bad.

Among all forwards over the last 20 games played (200+ mins consisting of 257 players) he has the 6th lowest shot rate in the league, 9th lowest point rate, 13th lowest CF60, number one highest CA60.

That is not numbers that any legitimate NHL forward at this point in time should expect to have purely by random variation. He is overmatched.
 
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What am I missing about Raddysh? Howden had a better scoring rate last year in the CHL and Andersson has basically the same scoring rate in the AHL as he does this year. From everything I have read about him, both Howden and Andersson are better in the non-scoring areas of the game as well.
 
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Do you think he was worth the 27th overall pick?

Do you think he’s going to amount to anything more than a good 3rd line center?

I don’t. It’s fine if you disagree, but the fact of the matter is that he hasn’t shown us anything to this point that would give me any semblance of hope to believe otherwise, especially after disappearing in 5 v 5 situations around let’s say mid-November.

He seems to be a good penalty killer, I’ll give him that.

Absolutely he was worth the 27th pick. GO back over the last 20 years and layout the 27th picks in every draft. A good 3C (even though I think he will eventually become a 2/3C tweener in the 45 point range who PK's and takes key face-offs) are very valuable. Those guys get $4-5m on the open market. Just because he isn't a 1C doesn't mean he doesn't provide value
 
This is part of the problem with rebuilds and/or trading big name players. You rarely ever get full value and there is a lot of risk involved.

I understand that. What I don’t understand is how not wanting your team’s GM to be trading his best asset for “safe players” with limited upside is a crime.

Would the rangers be in a playoff spot right now if they decided to keep McDonagh (who is healthy) and JT Miller and possibly made a few different signings in the off season? Very likely. Are they beating Tampa in a 7 game series? lol. But still, they would be a playoff team. At the same time, we likely don't have Kravtsov, K. Miller, etc and the retool is significantly farther behind where we are now.

Kravtsov was the Rangers’ pick and the team won games after the trade that prevented them from getting lower in the standings.

No one in the right mind is expecting them to go for it, you all see my posts in the game day threads. It’s always the same first post... “#Lose4Hughes”

I welcome the rebuild, it’s about 3 years overdue, I just don’t think they got back enough for McDonagh. Hopefully, Howden, Hajek and Nils prove me wrong.

This deadline, IMO, is the most important one we will have. Zucc and McQuaid are definitely goners. How they choose to deal with Hayes and Kreider tell me a lot about where they believe the organization is. If they keep Hayes and Kreider both, they believe they are closer to competing than we may think. If they trade Hayes but not Kreider it tells me they believe they have a replacement for Hayes and are maybe 2 years out. If they trade both Hayes and Kreider, buckle up buttercup because this is going to be one terrifying ride.

I agree with everything you said there. I’d move Kreider if the right deal came along. Hayes is their meal ticket to a second, possibly a 3rd first rounder. By the time this team is ready to truly compete, we’re looking at Hayes being 30 or older. Deal him.

Spot on, 2k2. This is why I (and so many others) had concerns that our fanbase couldn't handle a rebuild. It is one of many things that sounds good in theory, but the process we have to endure is absolutely dreadful.

I can handle a rebuild, I’ve stated many times I embrace it. I’m just not going to be the rah rah cheerleader that blindly pumps up Brett Howden’s tires or acts like Gorton can do no wrong when he clearly got bent over by Yzerman in that trade.
 
Sucks watching the club stink it up, but going into the season i do believe everyone expected it. I was thinking actually middle of the road type of a team but they are fading fast.

The Zucc situation is tough to watch unfold here. Arguably the most popular player in the past decade. Now, he's turning into the whipping boy. Lot's of posters here and fans are all over him. "He's disengaged"..."His head is up his arse" "Get him out" etc. I don't think it’s that easy. He's a rental. A handful of potential suitors don't even know if they are buyers or sellers at this point. I think GMJG has to play the hand the right way here and will likely wait it out until the deadline and move him then. Of course if a club wants him bad enough to help the club get him there then that's another story. For the interim, this is on the athlete himself. He has to get his head out of his own arse. Quinn and staff need to coach him through it. In addition the club doesn't really have a true captain. If you are wearing the C, you need to be all over situations like this. What would Mark Messier do if he had a player who was disengaged? I do think it is imperative that for the long term the player needs to be moved. He did great here. He was the Cinderella story that everyone loves. Now it’s run its course. Move him, but don't be too hasty. Get the right return. Good GM's find ways to make deals happen. Sometimes the right way is waiting till the deadline.

Value right now might be a B prospect and a 2nd round pick. Value at deadline if player is back from his mental vacation is a 2019 1st round pick and a B prospect. Wait it out.


The Hayes situation is a little different. The player isn't disengaged. While he is out of the lineup for the now, Hayes has been playing the best hockey of his career. Of course that just happened to come on a contract year. I’m sure the phones have rang already on him and I think it’s likely that discussions are already underway with some GM’s. Gorton has a lot to work with here. He maximized Rick Nash’s return. I’d expect nothing less for the younger Kevin Hayes. Plus, teams are always looking for C’s. Big ones who produce, and play two way games have tremendous value. With that said, he’s still quite the young lad. There’s the argument to be made for keeping him here. Let’s face it, none of the prospects at this point are showing they can slide up into the 2nd line and handle the responsibility. A lot can change in a year. Chytil, Howden, maybe even Lias? All we know for the now is they aren’t there yet. The price tag seems to be rumored around $7,000,000 for a fresh new Kevin Hayes contract. While I like what #13 has accomplished here, if he’s resigned, that type of a move likely brings this club from the depths of the league back to mediocrity. I hope the Rangers see that. I think everyone else certainly does. I don’t want to see Mediocrity anymore. If the player wants to stay badly enough, get him back here for $6 mil. That’s a tremendous payday, and while it would probably leave some money on the table can you really put a price tag on peace of mind?

Value at deadline should be 2019 1st round selection, a roster player (cap) and a B prospect with potential to be an A.


The Big 3 situation is just a mess. Staal, Shatty, & Smith. This is the test for Gorton. Easy way out is a buyout, which many here support. I hate the idea. Club is still factoring Girardi to the tune of $3.6 this year, and $3.6 next year. A Smith or Staal buyout puts them further into the hole limited them any future moves. I would assume that Staal is pretty much untradeable. Shatty I think would have some interest being he’s RD and has the PP resume. Smith has the smaller price tag, and can likely be moved maybe by sending out someone with him in a package deal. At a minimum, one of these players has to go. For the now…right now there are younger players that can slide into each of their spots. Gorton has to make some moves here. Can’t keep blaming Sather for these contracts. Gorton was on Shatty and Smith. This is the deal IMO that should be done prior to the deadline. And if they can’t get-r-done, they should reflect long and hard and what the next contract will look like for any impending UFA’s they wish to keep around.

The deadline is Feb 25th. That is 47 days away. For the Rangers that's another 20 games.

This post was really enjoyable to read, I agree with 99.9% of it. Only part I will disagree with you on is having to move any of the 3 crap contracts. Totally agree a buyout on any is insane seeing as how the cap space isn’t even necessary. I just don’t feel the need to move any unless we can get something for them. It’s not like any of our prospects are ready and knocking at the door. Just leave Smith as the 7th, Staal on the 3rd pair, and Claesson ahead of him. Or if we don’t resign Claesson then give Bigras a shot. Best case scenario Hajek is ready next year. Either way I don’t see why we can’t carry these contracts and just wait for them to expire.
 
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Absolutely he was worth the 27th pick. GO back over the last 20 years and layout the 27th picks in every draft. A good 3C (even though I think he will eventually become a 2/3C tweener in the 45 point range who PK's and takes key face-offs) are very valuable. Those guys get $4-5m on the open market. Just because he isn't a 1C doesn't mean he doesn't provide value

I’ve never said that he doesn’t provide value. What I’ve said was that I wouldn’t have picked him in the first round and he shouldn’t have been a major piece in a trade for the team’s best defender.

We didn’t get back enough. Everyone can say what they want but until someone shows me something to convince me otherwise, I’ll reserve my right to my opinion. With all of that said, I hope I’m wrong.
 
Wouldn't have guessed Strome is that bad by the eye test.

I agree, I was actually going to post something like:

Strome has been very good since his acquisition. His speed, which was called below average has not been an issue and he seems like a smart 2-way player. He makes things happen and, honestly, reminds me a bit of Fast and Namestnikov in that he can play in all situations and on any line and not look totally out of place. Plus he's a RH shot which is a plus and can play center or wing as needed. To me, the Strome acquisition is a home-run for Gorton
 
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I actually do think there were problems inherent in the youngest making the NHL, as they would have to play against the best in the world.

Under different circumstances, like if they were joining a good team I'd feel differently yet the Rangers could have had more of less the same things going on at the NHL level by just using more vets and hopefully the AHL team would be setting the AHL world on fire. Had the AHL not been at least very good with all their best non waiver eligible youngest prospects, wouldn't that indicate that something there was going wrong and could maybe be addressed?

I think they sort of needlessly and knowingly jumped over a step in the process.

Prior to the final roster being set.

Jeff Gorton told The Post the team is prepared to accommodate young men whose play warrants a spot in the NHL.

“It’s fair to say that if a guy proves he’s ready, we’ll make whatever roster moves are necessary to accommodate him,” the GM said. “We’re not going to hold anybody back because we have X number of veterans here under contract.

“At the same time, though, if a player is going to be in the NHL, he has to earn it. We’re not giving anyone a spot just to show that our kids are developing. We’re operating under a merit system.”

“Coming out of the season, I didn’t have a specific plan to not have a specific player or players back, and I wasn’t going to make a move just to make a move,” Gorton said. “We expect there to be competition for jobs at camp and it’s just as much up to the veterans to prove they belong as the young guys. That goes for every position.

“We’ve all seen our veterans play at a higher level than they did last year. We are going to need more from them. There is nobody in the room who can’t be better.

“Filip and Lias are still very young players whom we think will benefit from playing with the group of 18-, 19- and 20-year-olds we have,” Gorton said. “We’d like them to grow together as a group and get as much familiarity with one another as they can.
 
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I’ve never said that he doesn’t provide value. What I’ve said was that I wouldn’t have picked him in the first round and he shouldn’t have been a major piece in a trade for the team’s best defender.

We didn’t get back enough. Everyone can say what they want but until someone shows me something to convince me otherwise, I’ll reserve my right to my opinion. With all of that said, I hope I’m wrong.

This is on par with looking back 5 years ago and saying:

Well I made an investment in the stock market that made, on average 10% per year. Yay! But it wasn't worthwhile because this other investment made 12% per year. So my 10% per year is crap.

There is a pretty large chunk of 1st rounders who NEVER make the NHL. Just getting a good player out of any draft slot is an accomplishment and looking back years ago to say he was not the 'ideal' pick is fine but calling him 'not a 1st rounder' is the wrong way to go about it.

I think if you were to ask most GM's and Heads of Scouting departments, given the 27th pick in a draft, if they could get a guaranteed player like Howden, who projects as a 2/3C who excels at faceoffs and projects to about 45-50 with good 2-way play, they would jump at it.

To put this another way, if the Rangers, after this season, were to decide to shop Howden, I can almost guarantee teams would offer much more than just a late 1st round pick. There is inherent risk with a pick like that which you aren't taking into account.

Now, would it be great if the Rangers could find some elite talent through the draft? Of course. It's also important for the Rangers to build a team where the pieces they have fit the roles required on an actual team. That includes guys like Howden.

McDonagh was never re-signing in NY. That's a moot point. They returned a young 20 year center who projects to a 2/3C in Howden and a defenseman who projects pretty safely to a second pairing guy who plays in all situations, a 1st rounder and possibly another 1st rounder. TB then gave McDonagh a long-term contract taking him to 36 years old. It's a package that, while it may be lacking a super high end piece, immediately replenished a good chunk of depth the Rangers system had been lacking in one fell swoop.
 
I can handle a rebuild, I’ve stated many times I embrace it. I’m just not going to be the rah rah cheerleader that blindly pumps up Brett Howden’s tires or acts like Gorton can do no wrong when he clearly got bent over by Yzerman in that trade.

I get this, and I can respect that.

But I have to be honest with you, usually the people I see making these comments are the ones who are miserable about almost everything and make some pretty over-the-top negative comments that go way beyond the premise of what they were trying to present. Then usually they get talked back down from the ledge.

It's kind of like when people brag about being straight shooters. On the one hand, that's great, I know where they stand. But what if they're an a-hole and their opinions are usually wrong?
 
I get this, and I can respect that.

But I have to be honest with you, usually the people I see making these comments are the ones who are miserable about almost everything and make some pretty over-the-top negative comments that go way beyond the premise of what they were trying to present. Then usually they get talked back down from the ledge.

It's kind of like when people brag about being straight shooters. On the one hand, that's great, I know where they stand. But what if they're an a-hole and their opinions are usually wrong?

Why is it that whenever I hear 'straight shooter' I always immediately think they must be an a-hole and their opinions are going to be wrong?
 
Maybe to you, that might be the case. I’d rather take my chances on a boom or bust pick than someone like Howden, whose likely projection was that of a good 3rd line center, especially if you’re a team like Tampa was at that time, deep and young enough to afford to be able to swing for the fence.



That’s fine, we’ll never agree on Hart or Raddysh, who I think were both slam dunks for me, but I think those two players both end up way better players at their position at the NHL level than Howden does.

Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.



Would that change the mindset? Possibly, but I still don’t like the player and don’t think he should have been a major piece in that trade.



Big time prospect? I wouldn’t say that. I’d say a good prospect. When you use words like that, it implies near the top and he’s never been that type of prospect.

Asked to do too much? Who is asking him to do too much? Quinn? He has him as a 3rd line center.

Just because some think that he doesn’t have upside worth being a 1st rounder doesn’t mean that anyone is asking too much of him. It means we don’t see the upside in a player that was a safe pick and nothing more.
The boom or bust vs "safe" thing depends on organizational preference and also where that organization is at the time. He was a Tampa pick. I don't know their philosophy and I don't know their situation headed into the 2016 draft. He could have been a perfect pick for that team. I don't know so I can't comment on that.

Raddysh, again, fine. I don't care if Hart ends up a better goalie than Howden a center; I don't value goalies in the draft enough to go in round one. Especially when you can get a guy like him in round two. Why take a great goalie prospect in round one when you can generally get them later? Different conversation though.

He was big-time. Not a superstar but very highly regarded. In his bantam draft he went right behind Steel and Nolan Patrick, right ahead of Jost, Fabbro, and Clague. He was one of the top handful of prospects potentially entering Major Junior that year.

The "too much" refers to playing 16 minutes per night including a not-insignificant 1:40 on the PP and 1:15 on the PK when he's not ready. I think he's in over his head and they're asking him to do more than he's ready to do.

I don't understand the last paragraph so I can't respond to it. Anyway, the whole point is "worthy of a first round pick" is being used pretty subjectively--that is, "I don't think he has that upside." I think if you look at where his junior career started, how it ended, all the steps along the way, the valuations and rankings of draft publications, compare him to other guys taken around him, etc., try to quantify things and make it more objective, he was an obvious first round pick.
 
Eye test tells me Howden is a keeper and Vesey is not.

Draw up whatever advanced metrics you want. One is a guy I’d go to battle with, the other is puking in the 3rd floor stairwell of his dorm.

Howden will wear an ‘A’ one day.
 
People really have an overinflated view of what a low end first rounder is worth. You get more misses than hits and the hits are rarely of the superstar variety:

2010:
120PittsburghBeau BennettRPenticton Vees [BCHL]200244064522017-18
121DetroitRiley SheahanCNotre Dame [CCHA]4075583138712018-19
122MontrealJarred TinordiDU.S. National Development Team [USHL]53066782015-16
123BuffaloMark PysykDEdmonton Oil Kings [WHL]319125264862018-19
124ChicagoKevin HayesCNobles School [Mass.]34983124207982018-19
125FloridaQuinton HowdenCMoose Jaw Warriors [WHL]9710717302016-17
126WashingtonEvgeny KuznetsovCChelyabinsk Traktor [KHL]376872143011902018-19
127PhoenixMark VisentinGNiagara IceDogs [OHL]100002013-14
128San JoseCharlie CoyleCSouth Shore Kings [EJHL]461881482361802018-19
129AnaheimEmerson EtemRMedicine Hat Tigers [WHL]173222446302016-17
130NY IslandersBrock NelsonCWarroad H.S. [Minn.]4391141032171592018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2011:
120PhoenixConnor MurphyDU.S. National Development Team [USHL]3491652681892018-19
121OttawaStefan NoesenRPlymouth Whalers [OHL]145232144862018-19
122TorontoTyler BiggsRU.S. National Development Team [USHL]
123PittsburghJoe MorrowDPortland Winterhawks [WHL]14481826422018-19
124OttawaMatt PuempelLPeterborough Petes [OHL]7910515282016-17
125TorontoStuart PercyDMississauga St. Michael's Majors [OHL]1203322015-16
126ChicagoPhillip DanaultCVictoriaville Tigres [QMJHL]23132711031122018-19
127Tampa BayVladislav NamestnikovCLondon Knights [OHL]32059831421622018-19
128MinnesotaZack PhillipsCSaint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
129VancouverNicklas JensenROshawa Generals [OHL]31336102016-17
130AnaheimRickard RakellCPlymouth Whalers [OHL]343101117218632018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2012:
120PhiladelphiaScott LaughtonCOshawa Generals [OHL]2332636621282018-19
121CalgaryMark JankowskiCStanstead College (Quebec)114231942392018-19
122PittsburghOlli MaattaDLondon Knights [OHL]3442579104942018-19
123FloridaMike MathesonDDubuque Fighting Saints [USHL]2041940591252018-19
124BostonMalcolm SubbanGBelleville Bulls [OHL]3200042018-19
125St. LouisJordan SchmaltzDGreen Bay Gamblers [USHL]42055122018-19
126VancouverBrendan GaunceCBelleville Bulls [OHL]1176915452018-19
127PhoenixHenrik SamuelssonCEdmonton Oil Kings [WHL]300022014-15
128NY RangersBrady SkjeiDU.S. National Development Team [USHL]2081265771072018-19
129New JerseyStefan MatteauCU.S. National Development Team [USHL]64347272017-18
130Los AngelesTanner PearsonLBarrie Colts [OHL]3527579154902018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2013:
120DetroitAnthony ManthaRVal d'Or Foreurs [QMJHL]18053501031242018-19
121TorontoFrederik GauthierCRimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]705712312018-19
122CalgaryEmile PoirierLGatineau Olympiques [QMJHL]801122015-16
123WashingtonAndre BurakovskyLMalmo Redhawks [Swe-1]2905574129732018-19
124VancouverHunter ShinkarukLMedicine Hat Tigers [WHL]1522442016-17
125MontrealMichael McCarronRU.S. National Development Team [USHL]692681102017-18
126AnaheimShea TheodoreDSeattle Thunderbirds [WHL]159155166562018-19
127ColumbusMarko DanoCBratislava Slovan [KHL]138192645472018-19
128CalgaryMorgan KlimchukLRegina Pats [WHL]100002017-18
129DallasJason DickinsonCGuelph Storm [OHL]728816332018-19
130ChicagoRyan HartmanRPlymouth Whalers [OHL]2063938771752018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2014:
120ChicagoNick SchmaltzCGreen Bay Gamblers [USHL]1793471105322018-19
121St. LouisRobby FabbriCGuelph Storm [OHL]142313970562018-19
122PittsburghKasperi KapanenRKalPa Kuopio [SM-liiga]97221335202018-19
123ColoradoConner BleackleyCRed Deer Rebels [WHL]
124VancouverJared McCannCSault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]206264470802018-19
125BostonDavid PastrnakRSodertalje SK [Swe-1]2971191362551172018-19
126MontrealNikita ScherbakRSaskatoon Blades [WHL]37628102018-19
127San JoseNikolay GoldobinRSarnia Sting [OHL]103172542182018-19
128NY IslandersJosh Ho-SangRWindsor Spitfires [OHL]5371724202018-19
129Los AngelesAdrian KempeCMODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL]149233255852018-19
130New JerseyJohn QuennevilleCBrandon Wheat Kings [WHL]2913462018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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Eye test tells me Howden is a keeper and Vesey is not.

Draw up whatever advanced metrics you want. One is a guy I’d go to battle with, the other is puking in the 3rd floor stairwell of his dorm.

Howden will wear an ‘A’ one day.
Vesey has been good this season.
 
I think there's a love affair for what we consider "boom or bust picks."

But kind of like the concept of a rebuild, I'm not sure people really understand what that entails --- the odds; what happens if you go too heavy on that end; that just like most ceilings the concept of actually getting the "boom" rather than a "pop" is less than they'd think; etc.

I think we also have to be careful when we use that term to describe everyone could go either way in the development.

Some guys, who we would classify as "boom or bust" prospects, don't always have the upside that we assign to them.

So while we might convince ourselves that a guy like Raddyish could be a minor-league journeyman, or a nice NHL scoring winger, it doesn't necessarily mean that the "boom" is 30-35 goals. It could mean that the "boom" is more like 25 goals.

Because in today's NHL, a lot of the real boom players aren't the ones that are available in trades. It's more of the middle ground, "really nice to have, but not impossible to find" types.

But I think we get so caught up in certain phrases and terms: boom or bust; ceiling; potential; top six; bottom six; first line vs. second line vs. third line; first pair-second pair-thirdoaur; skills; intangibles; toughness; etc., that we don't always realize the subjectivity behind those words, or some of the other considerations I mentioned earlier.

But in most cases, I'm not sure the boom is ever quite as loud as people want to believe in their heads.
 
People really have an overinflated view of what a low end first rounder is worth. You get more misses than hits and the hits are rarely of the superstar variety:

2010:
120PittsburghBeau BennettRPenticton Vees [BCHL]200244064522017-18
121DetroitRiley SheahanCNotre Dame [CCHA]4075583138712018-19
122MontrealJarred TinordiDU.S. National Development Team [USHL]53066782015-16
123BuffaloMark PysykDEdmonton Oil Kings [WHL]319125264862018-19
124ChicagoKevin HayesCNobles School [Mass.]34983124207982018-19
125FloridaQuinton HowdenCMoose Jaw Warriors [WHL]9710717302016-17
126WashingtonEvgeny KuznetsovCChelyabinsk Traktor [KHL]376872143011902018-19
127PhoenixMark VisentinGNiagara IceDogs [OHL]100002013-14
128San JoseCharlie CoyleCSouth Shore Kings [EJHL]461881482361802018-19
129AnaheimEmerson EtemRMedicine Hat Tigers [WHL]173222446302016-17
130NY IslandersBrock NelsonCWarroad H.S. [Minn.]4391141032171592018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
2011:
120PhoenixConnor MurphyDU.S. National Development Team [USHL]3491652681892018-19
121OttawaStefan NoesenRPlymouth Whalers [OHL]145232144862018-19
122TorontoTyler BiggsRU.S. National Development Team [USHL]
123PittsburghJoe MorrowDPortland Winterhawks [WHL]14481826422018-19
124OttawaMatt PuempelLPeterborough Petes [OHL]7910515282016-17
125TorontoStuart PercyDMississauga St. Michael's Majors [OHL]1203322015-16
126ChicagoPhillip DanaultCVictoriaville Tigres [QMJHL]23132711031122018-19
127Tampa BayVladislav NamestnikovCLondon Knights [OHL]32059831421622018-19
128MinnesotaZack PhillipsCSaint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
129VancouverNicklas JensenROshawa Generals [OHL]31336102016-17
130AnaheimRickard RakellCPlymouth Whalers [OHL]343101117218632018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
2012:
120PhiladelphiaScott LaughtonCOshawa Generals [OHL]2332636621282018-19
121CalgaryMark JankowskiCStanstead College (Quebec)114231942392018-19
122PittsburghOlli MaattaDLondon Knights [OHL]3442579104942018-19
123FloridaMike MathesonDDubuque Fighting Saints [USHL]2041940591252018-19
124BostonMalcolm SubbanGBelleville Bulls [OHL]3200042018-19
125St. LouisJordan SchmaltzDGreen Bay Gamblers [USHL]42055122018-19
126VancouverBrendan GaunceCBelleville Bulls [OHL]1176915452018-19
127PhoenixHenrik SamuelssonCEdmonton Oil Kings [WHL]300022014-15
128NY RangersBrady SkjeiDU.S. National Development Team [USHL]2081265771072018-19
129New JerseyStefan MatteauCU.S. National Development Team [USHL]64347272017-18
130Los AngelesTanner PearsonLBarrie Colts [OHL]3527579154902018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
2013:
120DetroitAnthony ManthaRVal d'Or Foreurs [QMJHL]18053501031242018-19
121TorontoFrederik GauthierCRimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]705712312018-19
122CalgaryEmile PoirierLGatineau Olympiques [QMJHL]801122015-16
123WashingtonAndre BurakovskyLMalmo Redhawks [Swe-1]2905574129732018-19
124VancouverHunter ShinkarukLMedicine Hat Tigers [WHL]1522442016-17
125MontrealMichael McCarronRU.S. National Development Team [USHL]692681102017-18
126AnaheimShea TheodoreDSeattle Thunderbirds [WHL]159155166562018-19
127ColumbusMarko DanoCBratislava Slovan [KHL]138192645472018-19
128CalgaryMorgan KlimchukLRegina Pats [WHL]100002017-18
129DallasJason DickinsonCGuelph Storm [OHL]728816332018-19
130ChicagoRyan HartmanRPlymouth Whalers [OHL]2063938771752018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
2014:
120ChicagoNick SchmaltzCGreen Bay Gamblers [USHL]1793471105322018-19
121St. LouisRobby FabbriCGuelph Storm [OHL]142313970562018-19
122PittsburghKasperi KapanenRKalPa Kuopio [SM-liiga]97221335202018-19
123ColoradoConner BleackleyCRed Deer Rebels [WHL]
124VancouverJared McCannCSault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]206264470802018-19
125BostonDavid PastrnakRSodertalje SK [Swe-1]2971191362551172018-19
126MontrealNikita ScherbakRSaskatoon Blades [WHL]37628102018-19
127San JoseNikolay GoldobinRSarnia Sting [OHL]103172542182018-19
128NY IslandersJosh Ho-SangRWindsor Spitfires [OHL]5371724202018-19
129Los AngelesAdrian KempeCMODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL]149233255852018-19
130New JerseyJohn QuennevilleCBrandon Wheat Kings [WHL]2913462018-19
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's why I kind of shrug at the argument that you can find elite talents later in the draft. Yes, in theory you can. But man do your odds take a pretty big dip. Now, if you're looking for depth and potential support guys, you'll probably have better luck. But I really think there's a widespread belief that there are more Pastrnak's out there than there really are.

It's kind of the list of supposed stars we've passed on and missed over the last 13 years. Yeah, you can probably together a two digit list. Granted you start with a four digit pool.
 
It's why I kind of shrug at the argument that you can find elite talents later in the draft. Yes, in theory you can. But man do your odds take a pretty big dip. Now, if you're looking for depth and potential support guys, you'll probably have better luck. But I really think there's a widespread belief that there are more Pastrnak's out there than there really are.

It's kind of the list of supposed stars we've passed on and missed over the last 13 years. Yeah, you can probably together a two digit list. Granted you start with a four digit pool.
I blame the 2003 draft. Everyone remembers that we could have had Brown, Seabrook, Parise, Parise, Getzlaf, Burns, Kesler, Richards, Perry, and so on. You just remember all those guys in the teens and twenties, and then couple that with Sanguinetti instead of Giroux in the teens, Tarasenko and Kuznetsov going mid-to-late, etc. It happens, maybe even once in every draft, but it's still rare (2003 megadraft notwithstanding).
 
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