Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXI

[Ola]

I agree on the goalie discussion.

But my motivation is a bit a different. I am not sure that goalies aren't as important as that defender or center, it can be discussed back and forth. But one thing definitely differs a lot. You will -- never -- get the contribution of a Sidney Crosby at center from anyone else than Sidney Crosby. Sure a Jeff Toms can score a hat trick and if we simplify the game and claims that its about scoring goals one can argue that Jeff Toms with 3 goals is better than a Crosby with 1 assist, but over a play-off run its not possible that you can get an truly elite performance at center or D from a non-elite center or defender, the game is about so much more than production. Every shift count. Marc Staal could theortically -- even if its unlikely -- have his puck luck result in points in 15 straight games, but he still wouldn't be a top 5 D in the NHL during that stint.

BUT, from a goalie you can get just that. A goalie does more than stop pucks. He plays them and also gives comfort to his Ds, handle rebounds etc. But for 60 minutes of hockey I would definitely say that any back-up in the SHL basically can play as well as Hank can. There are probably up towards 500 guys who could have a perfect 60 between the pipes at the NHL level. And when it comes to having a perfect PO run -- that number probably drops down a ton but not to 3-4, but more like 20-30 maybe or whatever, something like that.

So a hole between the pipes can hurt you a ton, and almost always you need great goaltending to win a Cup. And while that goaltending certainly isn't easy to find -- ask Philly, they haven't had a decent goalie that often that last 40 years -- its still not impossible to have a guy like Cam Ward come in and more or less steal a P.O. and win a Cup.

Goaltending is a different animal in that sense.

 

[Ola]

I think the Calgary model of building a competitive team is the best we can hope for. Draft well with top 10, but without any top 3 picks. Get lucky with an off the radar mid rounder becoming a franchise player. But that's never a given.

It also helps that Trevling took Waddell to the ****ing cleaners on their draft day trade. Calgary got a stud two way defenseman and a point per game forward for Hamilton (who's quickly becoming overrated in my book), a bottom six forward, and a prospect that wasn't going to sign with Calgary and probably won't sign with Carolina either.

Would you guys have dealt Skjei, Vesey, Lundkvist, and another small piece (adjusted for value) for Hanafin and Lindholm? I sure would have, even before Lindholm's break out.

I was calling for a Hayes/Hanafin swap last summer. Hanafin really was available. I can't believe Waddell dealt him and didn't get a top 6 forward back. That trade was probably the last straw for the owner and he made those "I'm not drafting a defenseman in the 1st round ever again" comments. What a **** show down there. 10 years and no playoffs. There would be anarchy on this board if that happened here.

Yeah me too.

And when discussing this topic, its pretty amazing to see just how much Johnny Hockey is lifting everyone there in Calgary. Everyone is doing great and helping each other, but take away JH from that equation and especially the production would look different.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

For all players you try and draft the best available talent for the pick you have. I think in terms on Lundqvist no one knew he was going to be HOF. I mentioned before I was hoping for a similar career to pre Belarus 2002 Tommy Salo or at best a Khaubeboulin.

If Shesty is THAT good which is very unlikely (not saying he can't be good or solid) it's something to worry about in 6-7 years and by that time the league will have changed again as in maybe positions are values differently or DMen especially.

 

[nyr2k2]

I'm for shaking things up right now. Howden and Chytil haven't produced a damn thing for months. Not necessarily an indictment of their games, but they've become stagnant. Same for Pionk. Send them down and bring up Andersson, Meskanen, and Bigras for looks. Andersson is your 3C, Meskanen can take over for Chytil and Bigras can slide into Pionk's pairing.

Let the other kids get some burn while Howden, Chytil and Pionk "get their games on track" or whatever. If the season is done at this point, gotta start trying to get all the kids some action.

 

[SA16]

Howden has this weird reputation as a guy who has been great despite him being relatively terrible for two months now.

Over the last 20 games, at 5v5, he has the fourth most minutes and only two points and fifteen shots. He has the second worst CF60 on the team in that span and the worst CA60.

He really doesn't belong in the NHL right now and he certainly shouldn't be getting this many minutes.

I said earlier but it's the Oscar Lindberg thing. He got off to a really good start and it's way overinflated his reputation. Lindberg is essentially a nothing player now.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Howden has this weird reputation as a guy who has been great despite him being relatively terrible for two months now.

Over the last 20 games, at 5v5, he has the fourth most minutes and only two points and fifteen shots. He has the second worst CF60 on the team in that span and the worst CA60.

He really doesn't belong in the NHL right now and he certainly shouldn't be getting this many minutes.

I said earlier but it's the Oscar Lindberg thing. He got off to a really good start and it's way overinflated his reputation. Lindberg is essentially a nothing player now.

I was considering bumping the Howden thread to post something similar. The only player who's been arguably worse over the past 20 games is Ryan Strome who has managed to post an unfathomable 22.97 HDCF% over that span - by far the worst in the league (Howden is 16th worst with 37.11 in the same sample).

 

[Avery16]

He can sign a 2m AAV deal then to be the backup

I fully expect Hank to sign a backup contract if hes staying on as a backup

 

[Off Sides]

The rebuild I'd be looking at is more closely related to the Jets than any of the others.

They moved in 2011 and until 2016 drafted

Scheifele(#7), Trouba(#9)Morrissey(#13) Ehlers(#9) Connor (#17) Laine(#2)

(also found Hellebuyck, Lowry with some later picks and had Byfuglien, Little)

For the first several picks there there were many question marks in those players first seasons, yet pretty much all of them turned into pretty good if not really good players. Other then #2 they did not draft super early.

Rangers already have at least some draft pick quantity advantage having five 1sts in the last two drafts, two of which were at #7 and #9.

If they end up with a early pick this year or next and they don't miss out on too many of their picks, I think they have a relatively good chance at doing something kind of similar.

The down side it took years for most of those draftees to come into their own, the Jets did not have a ton of choices but to remain patient or start making trades, which they did to get Wheeler and move out Evander Kane. There was no accelerated rebuild as the free agents were just not signing there and really I think that actually helped them stay the course as they micromanaged everything pretty well.

Now they have not won the cup, yet I think they've at least positioned themselves pretty well to have some chances at doing so.

Can the Rangers do something similar, I'd say yes, but I fully expect that to take a pretty long time yet they started with somewhat of an advantage given they have and had some stuff to sell off to add some extra picks/prospects, yet it's still going to take in my estimation like 3 or 4 more years for all that to really start to pay off, and they do not have a Byfuglien by any means, and it will probably require them making at least a hockey trade or two eventually that is very well thought out.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

I'm for shaking things up right now. Howden and Chytil haven't produced a damn thing for months. Not necessarily an indictment of their games, but they've become stagnant. Same for Pionk. Send them down and bring up Andersson, Meskanen, and Bigras for looks. Andersson is your 3C, Meskanen can take over for Chytil and Bigras can slide into Pionk's pairing.

Let the other kids get some burn while Howden, Chytil and Pionk "get their games on track" or whatever. If the season is done at this point, gotta start trying to get all the kids some action.

Good post. I've been worried that the entire team has gotten a complacent of late. That's especially bad for young players who still need to establish themselves.

 

[Off Sides]

I would completely agree that sending the youngest down is the right thing to do.

At least until post trade deadline where things change from let's try to win into let's see what the kids have.

I think the current group of vets and younger vets/older prospects should own whatever happen between now and then.

If they want to throw a pity party, get angry, do whatever let it be on them.

 

[nyr2k2]

Howden has this weird reputation as a guy who has been great despite him being relatively terrible for two months now.

Over the last 20 games, at 5v5, he has the fourth most minutes and only two points and fifteen shots. He has the second worst CF60 on the team in that span and the worst CA60.

He really doesn't belong in the NHL right now and he certainly shouldn't be getting this many minutes.

I said earlier but it's the Oscar Lindberg thing. He got off to a really good start and it's way overinflated his reputation. Lindberg is essentially a nothing player now.

I made this point (without the numbers) in the Andersson thread, when Lias was sent down. Howden has done absolutely nothing to stay in the lineup, IMO. Let another one of your top prospects get those minutes. If Andersson is not ready and as ill-prepared for the NHL as some people think, then fine, it will just be a repeat of Howden. But if his struggles are due to usage and linemates, like I've argued, he could flourish (in a relative sense). Either way, there's no harm in giving it a shot.

 

[Edge]

Howden has this weird reputation as a guy who has been great despite him being relatively terrible for two months now.

Over the last 20 games, at 5v5, he has the fourth most minutes and only two points and fifteen shots. He has the second worst CF60 on the team in that span and the worst CA60.

He really doesn't belong in the NHL right now and he certainly shouldn't be getting this many minutes.

I said earlier but it's the Oscar Lindberg thing. He got off to a really good start and it's way overinflated his reputation. Lindberg is essentially a nothing player now.

I think Howden would benefit from some time in the AHL, but I don't know if I'd go as far as Oscar Lindberg.

And most under-inflations and over-inflations could probably be avoided if we all took some of these players, especially the younger players, in stride.

It's the hot takes that always come back to bite us in the ass,

 

[Off Sides]

Why not just bring up some of the older prospects that are down there and send all the youngest to the AHL?

Tokarski, Fogarty, Holland, Lettieri, O'Gara, Meskanen are all 23 or older, let them show if they have any NHL stuff.

Let Chytil, Howden, Lias, Georgiev try to effect change somewhere where they actually could, in the AHL

The idea that with Quinn those players are gaining something more valuable by playing in the NHL, I'm not really buying it.

While there is not much of a chance the older group is going to carve out NHL careers, why not at least utilize them so the youngest can maybe be developed in at least a somewhat winning environment. If that winning environment does not come about, maybe some changes need to be made at the AHL level?

 

[NYR Viper]

I would probably send Howden and Chytil down but I'm not sure I would recall Andersson. I think that kid needs to stay in one place and play big minutes for 20 games. Let all (3) of them play down there. Move Nieves up a line and recall Fogarty and Meskanen. Give them both a shot (or another shot in Fogarty's case).

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

I would probably send Howden and Chytil down but I'm not sure I would recall Andersson. I think that kid needs to stay in one place and play big minutes for 20 games. Let all (3) of them play down there. Move Nieves up a line and recall Fogarty and Meskanen. Give them both a shot (or another shot in Fogarty's case).

It’s win win. The kids develop, and the team tanks.

 

[NYR Viper]

Why not just bring up some of the older prospects that are down there and send all the youngest to the AHL?

Tokarski, Fogarty, Holland, Lettieri, O'Gara, Meskanen are all 23 or older, let them show if they have any NHL stuff.

Let Chytil, Howden, Lias, Georgiev try to effect change somewhere where they actually could, in the AHL

The idea that with Quinn those players are gaining something more valuable by playing in the NHL, I'm not really buying it.

While there is not much of a chance the older group is going to carve out NHL careers, why not at least utilize them so the youngest can maybe be developed in at least a somewhat winning environment. If that winning environment does not come about, maybe some changes need to be made at the AHL level?

This. I'd even consider recalling Beleskey if they want to keep Meskanen down there too

 

[True Blue]

I would probably send Howden and Chytil down but I'm not sure I would recall Andersson. I think that kid needs to stay in one place and play big minutes for 20 games. Let all (3) of them play down there. Move Nieves up a line and recall Fogarty and Meskanen. Give them both a shot (or another shot in Fogarty's case).

Howden and Chytil doing time at Hartford may not be a bad thing. Would like to see Fogarty get a shot. Even Beleskey. Let them play and see what shakes out at TDL and then bring back the kids that are earning it.

 

[nyr2k2]

I would probably send Howden and Chytil down but I'm not sure I would recall Andersson. I think that kid needs to stay in one place and play big minutes for 20 games. Let all (3) of them play down there. Move Nieves up a line and recall Fogarty and Meskanen. Give them both a shot (or another shot in Fogarty's case).

Howden is getting almost 16 minutes per night with 1:40 of PP time and 1:15 of PK time. I'd like to see what Lias could do with that.

 

[Edge]

I was actually a little surprised that the Rangers even carried 2 of 3 with Chytil, Andersson and Howden.

I expected to 2 to be in Hartford and one in the NHL, with a possible quasi-rotation taking place.

 

[NYR Viper]

Howden is getting almost 16 minutes per night with 1:40 of PP time and 1:15 of PK time. I'd like to see what Lias could do with that.

I agree, but right now, I really see the train coming off the tracks relatively soon. I'd say bring up some vets to give them a shot and let the kids play together and build confidence in the AHL for 20 games. Let the deadline pass

 

[nyr2k2]

I agree, but right now, I really see the train coming off the tracks relatively soon. I'd say bring up some vets to give them a shot and let the kids play together and build confidence in the AHL for 20 games. Let the deadline pass

OK, I don't agree, but that's a sensible approach.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I was actually a little surprised that the Rangers even carried 2 of 3 with Chytil, Andersson and Howden.

I expected to 2 to be in Hartford and one in the NHL, with a possible quasi-rotation taking place.

Gotta be honest, I’m not very worried about the kids being ruined. Frankly, there’s nothing wrong with them facing and learning from adversity. I saw a post during the game thread about keeping Hayes because the losing will cause morale to drop. If some of these kids are such fragile little eggshells, then this rebuild is already doomed and we might as well close up shop. Besides, I’m going to wager that the majority of the core that the Rangers are building are not in New York and very likely not yet in the organization.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

Just trade Zucc already.... Plz its like a slow death watching this guy half ass it everynight

 

[offdacrossbar]

the concern i have is when the kids get to play and have a role on the team, and then they look average or worse.

everyone loves the idea of "let the kids play and develop". practicing with the nhl staff and being around the nhl players and building the team is great and all but what happens when the kids dont look great.

then we resort to excuses about age and being young and learning and making sure not to panic.

21 looks really average now.
50 hasnt looked anymore than that all season.
72 hasn't been very good either.

makes me nervous.

i wish these kids were showing more.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

We need these other teams to start doing their job. Win some f***ing games Ottawa, Flyers, Detroit, etc.