Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVIII

[Alluckks]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

But you're OUR broken clock

 

[Trxjw]

I’d be disappointed if that was indeed the top-6 next year. The more I watch, the more I lean towards trading Kreider and Buchnevich, especially if they can acquire someone like Nylander. I’d be on the lookout for another big body who prefers to play North/South.

I think if you have Chytil and Kakko on one line and Zib driving the middle on the top line, the need for a big body becomes less pressing. As long as you have a guy with good wheels that can finish and is willing to drive the net you're probably in pretty good shape. Not to say I wouldn't love the guy you're describing, but I don't think it's a must get.

 

[haohmaru]

Gotta love the Rangers - get outshot/outplayed in almost every game they win and finally outplaying/outshooting the opposition and losing. All part of the package of being a Rangers fan.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I still worry that teams will view Kreider as purely a rental because no one even wants to consider locking him in long term.

Then again the teams that would be acquiring him are in short-term thinking mode (if they think they can win in the next 2-3 years)

 

[nyr2k2]

So, no one is going to sign him this summer?

Of course, but the team that signs him isn't necessarily going to be one that is interested in him at the deadline. And since we're not in free agency, it's not clear what he wants, and the spectre of him wanting, say, nothing less than seven years could turn some teams off.

It's the same thing that makes me leery of signing Kreider ourselves. He's a guy whose game I could see falling off a cliff rather dramatically if he loses a step. I said a month ago I could see a surprisingly small market for him where he ends up taking something like four years for a higher AAV because the term he wants just isn't there.

I know a lot of people think he's the best forward available at the deadline, but I have reservations about just how big and aggressive the market for him will be. Hopefully, I'm completely wrong.

 

[Kendo]

Of course, but the team that signs him isn't necessarily going to be one that is interested in him at the deadline. And since we're not in free agency, it's not clear what he wants, and the spectre of him wanting, say, nothing less than seven years could turn some teams off.

It's the same thing that makes me leery of signing Kreider ourselves. He's a guy whose game I could see falling off a cliff rather dramatically if he loses a step. I said a month ago I could see a surprisingly small market for him where he ends up taking something like four years for a higher AAV because the term he wants just isn't there.

I know a lot of people think he's the best forward available at the deadline, but I have reservations about just how big and aggressive the market for him will be. Hopefully, I'm completely wrong.

Def consider 4 years, though. 5 years, I might, but most wouldn't. 6 years, I wouldn't. There's the rub.

 

[nyr2k2]

Then again the teams that would be acquiring him are in short-term thinking mode (if they think they can win in the next 2-3 years)

Could be. Really depends I think on how teams value Kreider and if they have even cursory interest in re-signing him. Someone previously said anything less than a first and a prospect would be a huge fail. I don't know if that's accurate. Especially as Hall, who is way better, gets a late first, a late 2 or 3, a B prospect and two organizational depth prospects. Unless prices shoot up I could see a second with conditions, a good prospect, and some filler.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Could be. Really depends I think on how teams value Kreider and if they have even cursory interest in re-signing him. Someone previously said anything less than a first and a prospect would be a huge fail. I don't know if that's accurate. Especially as Hall, who is way better, gets a late first, a late 2 or 3, a B prospect and two organizational depth prospects. Unless prices shoot up I could see a second with conditions, a good prospect, and some filler.

Yeah, I don’t know if I see a huge return for Kreider either, I think that sort of thing hasn’t been realistic for a while now. If they’re focused on getting a first, I think it’ll be a Hayes type return where you’ll get a young bottom six player with it, and if they’re focused on the player it’ll be a young middle-six guy who hasn’t figured it out yet and some sort of conditional pick

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Kravstov hasn't had the 2019-2020 that anyone envisioned yet. But I wouldn't assume his value has nose-dived --- not by a long shot.

I also wouldn't assume the Rangers not automatically saying no to including him in a deal is a sign that they don't value him, or that they're shopping him. It's merely to indicate that they are open to the idea for the right player.

What I don't get is that when a player has 1 good month, we always hear "It's a small sample size. Let's not jump to any conclusions" but when it's a bad month, people immediately act as if it negates 3-4 years of development

 

[pld459666]

What I don't get is that when a player has 1 good month, we always hear "It's a small sample size. Let's not jump to any conclusions" but when it's a bad month, people immediately act as if it negates 3-4 years of development

This applies to player values here as well.

Lol

 

[Edge]

What I don't get is that when a player has 1 good month, we always hear "It's a small sample size. Let's not jump to any conclusions" but when it's a bad month, people immediately act as if it negates 3-4 years of development

With prospects especially, I think there's a weird dynamic where we people tend to fall in love with them, but then also safeguard themselves from getting hurt. I also think there's a fear of being "wrong" about a player, so people hedge their bets. On the one hand, everyone is going to be a star, but on the other hand they're always teetering on going completely off the rails.

But it's important for all of us to remember that player values don't typically rise and fall quite as spectacularly as we think they do.

 

[Tawnos]

Could be. Really depends I think on how teams value Kreider and if they have even cursory interest in re-signing him. Someone previously said anything less than a first and a prospect would be a huge fail. I don't know if that's accurate. Especially as Hall, who is way better, gets a late first, a late 2 or 3, a B prospect and two organizational depth prospects. Unless prices shoot up I could see a second with conditions, a good prospect, and some filler.

Hall is a way better player, but a 1st and a prospect (likely on the level of Lindgren) is also way less than what Hall got.

 

[Kovalev27]

I have to say the way this top 6 is shaping up it continues to make me more and more concerned about trading Kreider away. We do need a big body north south player somewhere in this lineup that can skate and play in front of the net. I don’t see one in the pipeline.

I then look at Buchnevich and I see a better version in the pipeline in Kravtsov.

so yes Buchy is younger but to me he’s far more expendable and only a year left on his deal after this season.

I think Kreider is definitely having an issue focusing it’s almost impossible not to with the contract over his head and how cerebral he is. Maybe his value comes down a bit. A 5 year deal at 7 mil or less considering the make up of our team may be something we’re open to doing. I don’t know I’ve very torn here.

I think I’d feel a lot better over the next 5 years having a top 6 with Panarin Kravtsov Chytil Zibanejad Kreider and Kakko

 

[NernieBichols]

Based on what @Edge is saying, if the Nylander to the Rangers deal went through, it would effect how Gorton would approach both this deadline AND this off-season. Let's assume for a minute the deal is Skjei + Kravtsov for Nylander + ______. Assuming the Rangers need a LD, it's possible they find a target who's available for a guy like Buch in the off-season. Or based on adding another skilled winger, they target a guy like Crouse or a bigger bodied power forward in return for Kreider in lieu of someone like Jost.

So basically, we all need to consider and remind ourselves that any move that's made is not done in a vacuum and Gorton will be just continuing to build towards a goal. It's not by any means a finished product.

Good post.
I’d do skjei+Georgie (love him but it seems Igor is in fact too good to not become the #1 and we have a lot of quality goaltending prospects. As much as I love to rag on Dubas for his analytics over fundamentals, I’ve always liked the leafs. Georgie would look good in a tml Jersey) for nylander +

Hearing edge still mention Arizona as a partner makes me think the rangers are interested in roster players and the ‘yotes haven’t ruled said players out. Would think Kreider, strome or skjei

Wonder if Calgary would have interest in a buch for Bennett swap.

Talking bringing in nylander, Bennett, crouse

Need a LD coming from somewhere if that’s the case

But honestly there are so many combos of how this could unfold.

All depends on the first team to seal the deal for the guy they really want

 

[NernieBichols]

Don’t be surprised to see the rangers trade away some really good pieces to secure a LD capable of playing 1D for awhile.

Skjeis not the guy. Miller isn’t gonna be that guy for a while. It’s a big hole. And there are a lot of options around the league

 

[Edge]

I have to say the way this top 6 is shaping up it continues to make me more and more concerned about trading Kreider away. We do need a big body north south player somewhere in this lineup that can skate and play in front of the net. I don’t see one in the pipeline.

I then look at Buchnevich and I see a better version in the pipeline in Kravtsov.

so yes Buchy is younger but to me he’s far more expendable and only a year left on his deal after this season.

I think Kreider is definitely having an issue focusing it’s almost impossible not to with the contract over his head and how cerebral he is. Maybe his value comes down a bit. A 5 year deal at 7 mil or less considering the make up of our team may be something we’re open to doing. I don’t know I’ve very torn here.

I think I’d feel a lot better over the next 5 years having a top 6 with Panarin Kravtsov Chytil Zibanejad Kreider and Kakko

I feel like I have somewhat the opposite take. With what I've seen from Kreider, I'm more concerned than ever about giving another half-decade --- especially with ADA needing a new contract and the fact that we're going to need to fill in some holes either via trades or signings.

I am right there with you on the concerns about not having an obvious replacement for him. But I also think that's going to be a part of the Rangers pursuit moving forward. In that regard, I don't see Buch and a handful of others necessarily being here. But I think it's going to take a while for a lot of holes to be addressed. I can't stress that enough.

I think Panarin, Zibanejad, and to a lesser extent our RD, really does mask the fact that we are still very early in this process and that many of the assets we have are still young unknown commodities.

 

[NernieBichols]

I think skjei, Kreider, and buch are ALL goners

Part of the reason for that. They are 3 of the guys who have been here longest and should be carrying weight and none of them are. Means they are complimentary pieces and for where they are at in their careers, they are Better off with win-now teams who they can compliment

 

[Edge]

Hearing edge still mention Arizona as a partner makes me think the rangers are interested in roster players and the ‘yotes haven’t ruled said players out. Would think Kreider, strome or skjei

I think there's one or two players that Arizona has shown interest in beyond Kreider. We'll see if they re-connect.

 

[NernieBichols]

The Devils get a top 3 protected pick in June. They got a very good deal. That pick is better than any pick the Rangers got.

Not better than the 7 they got for Stepan. The results notwithstanding

 

[NernieBichols]

When are teams gonna start asking for conditions the other way around. Like if your jersey, a condition saying if the pick is 22-30, it gets pushed to the next year’s draft

 

[nyr2k2]

Hall is a way better player, but a 1st and a prospect (likely on the level of Lindgren) is also way less than what Hall got.

He got the first and the Lindgren-level prospect (although I was way higher on Lindgren than on Bahl, who may not even be an NHL player). And then on top of that, he got what will likely be a late 2nd/3rd and two filler prospects. There's quantity in the deal but not a lot of quality. I don't consider it "a lot" more than a first and a B prospect. The conditional pick is the only other worthwhile thing in that deal.

 

[Tawnos]

He got the first and the Lindgren-level prospect (although I was way higher on Lindgren than on Bahl, who may not even be an NHL player). And then on top of that, he got what will likely be a late 2nd/3rd and two filler prospects. There's quantity in the deal but not a lot of quality. I don't consider it "a lot" more than a first and a B prospect. The conditional pick is the only other worthwhile thing in that deal.

Those opinions about the level of the prospects doesn't really reflect their value in a trade. By many lists, the Coyotes traded 2 of their top-5 prospects and another top-10.

Take yourself out of the evaluation for a second and look at it from the Coyotes perspective. Trading 3 of your 10 best prospects is a big deal and is not filler.

I'm not saying the Coyotes didn't make a good trade, I'm just saying the package they gave up was not light from their perspective.

 

[Waivers]

@Edge thank you for your shared wisdom.

 

[Edge]

@Edge thank you for your shared wisdom.

May the gods have mercy on us all.

 

[bobbop]

Another POV on Toronto...if this spills into the offseason, ADA for Nylander as the core pieces of a trade may make a lot of sense. Barrie is in his walk year in Toronto and they will need to replace him on the right side. There are plenty of attractive pieces on both sides to even this out. This would also open up some other trade possibilities. Just sayin...