Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XV

[Beer League Sniper]

If there is no correlation between FO% and individual points, team goals, and team shot attempts, then why are they important?

I don't believe this to be the case, at all.

Just because the way the data is being analyzed shows no correlation, doesn't mean there isn't one. Maybe the data is flawed/incomplete. Maybe the way it's being manipulated is flawed/incomplete.

Common sense tells me that winning a face off has a positive impact on outcomes. Possessing the puck is better than not possessing the puck.

 

[Fitzy]

I don't want Kovalchuk near this team for any reason. At least Staal is apparently a good locker room presence.

 

[True Blue]

In the most literal sense yes it increases your chance of a goal. That increase over a meaningful sample size has proven to make almost no difference. Would I prefer to win the faceoff? Yes. Are faceoffs (that largely happen in neutral territory and low pressure situations at even strength) important over a significant sample? No. There.

You can keep dodging your shoddy little gotcha's shortcomings all day if it makes you feel better.

This is what is actually epic. I specifically asked regarding face offs won or lost either in the offensive or defensive zone. When you start to add what happens in the neutral zone you naturally inflate the denominator, which is going to dilute your results.

This is where the "metrics and nothing but metrics" guys fail to see the forest through the trees.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Staal's Good Ole Canadian Boy/60 and VETERAN LEADERSHIP >>>> Kovy and his Enigmatic Russian/60 and not backchecking. Besides, the only NYR jersey i have is an authentic Staal 18 so I want that to stay relevant as long as possible.

 

[Zats Muccarello]

I would be cool with a Staal for Kovy swap. Contracts expire at the same time and Kovy is still a good player just being terribly misused by the LA coaching staff.

Ideally if we were to get rid of Staal though I would prefer to dump some cap not take on more (even if it is marginal).

 

[kovazub94]

Ok, let's break it down a bit further. A clean face-off win gives your team an extra possession. Now think about how many puck possessions are there in a single game? To make it very easy for illustration - let's say it is 100 ES and that a given team scores 2 ES gpg. So you need 50 extra possessions off of face-off win to convert it into another goal. Even if you're a face-off wizard who got 60% - even then winning 1 extra possession over 10 tries will barely make a blip as a variable that makes impact on winning compared to others.

 

[True Blue]

Don't bother.

Wait, wait. I specifically mention offensive and defensive zone draws and the rebuttal was about what happens mostly in the neutral zones and that is where you chime in?

 

[howztheglass]

Three proposals from me:

Marc Staal for Ilya Kovalchuk

Lias Andersson for Jesse Puljujarvi

Ryan Gropp for a box of Fruit by the Foot

First 2 I could see but the third--you want a whole box--not happening

Never thought Gropp could or would fall this far--but hey every player is a crap shoot at the draft. Some pan out and some flame out.

 

[Raspewtin]

I don't believe this to be the case, at all.

Just because the way the data is being analyzed shows no correlation, doesn't mean there isn't one. Maybe the data is flawed/incomplete. Maybe the way it's being manipulated is flawed/incomplete.

Common sense tells me that winning a face off has a positive impact on outcomes. Possessing the puck is better than not possessing the puck.

Common sense has told us a lot of things in sports history that aren't true.

I don't think anyone is arguing that a won faceoff has absolutely no value. It's that cumulatively faceoffs have no value and are significantly dependent on factors beyond the initial puckdrop. And that any positive impact that is felt directly from a faceoff win over any meaningful sample is negligible.

 

[Raspewtin]

This is what is actually epic. I specifically asked regarding face offs won or lost either in the offensive or defensive zone. When you start to add what happens in the neutral zone you naturally inflate the denominator, which is going to dilute your results.

This is where the "metrics and nothing but metrics" guys fail to see the forest through the trees.

ok boomer

 

[duhmetreE]

Common sense has told us a lot of things in sports history that aren't true.

I don't think anyone is arguing that a won faceoff has absolutely no value. It's that cumulatively faceoffs have no value and are significantly dependent on factors beyond the initial puckdrop. And that any positive impact that is felt directly from a faceoff win over any meaningful sample is negligible.

The same can be said about all analytics.

Numbers do not make the players. Players make the numbers. Good analytics do not produce good teams. Good teams have good analytics.

A good team will outshoot, outscore and outplay most teams. We do not need advanced stats to tell us that.

 

[Raspewtin]

The same can be said about all analytics.

Numbers do not make the players. Players make the numbers. Good analytics do not produce good teams. Good teams have good analytics.

A good team will outshoot, outscore and outplay most teams. We do not need advanced stats to tell us that.

thanks for your insight I had no idea

 

[True Blue]

ok boomer

Ok boy wonder. And a boomer, I am not. Just someone who disagrees with your view and can see that one needs to evaluate the game not just through a prism of statistics.

I know stats. I know modeling. I know how stats can be used to inflate or deflate your results based upon the desired objective. Which is why your inputs need to be examined and weighed.

 

[True Blue]

Ok, let's break it down a bit further. A clean face-off win gives your team an extra possession. Now think about how many puck possessions are there in a single game? To make it very easy for illustration - let's say it is 100 ES and that a given team scores 2 ES gpg. So you need 50 extra possessions off of face-off win to convert it into another goal. Even if you're a face-off wizard who got 60% - even then winning 1 extra possession over 10 tries will barely make a blip as a variable that makes impact on winning compared to others.

No offense, but I think that is a very simplistic way of looking at this. You are presuming all puck possessions are equal. They are not. Face offs in the offensive & defensive zone should be given more weight. Those puck possessions are not the same as the puck possessions that occur after you take a face off in the neutral zone.

Same can be said for defensive draws where the other team has pulled their goalie.

 

[kovazub94]

No offense, but I think that is a very simplistic way of looking at this. You are presuming all puck possessions are equal. They are not. Face offs in the offensive & defensive zone should be given more weight. Those puck possessions are not the same as the puck possessions that occur after you take a face off in the neutral zone.

Same can be said for defensive draws where the other team has pulled their goalie.

I was trying to make it simplistic on purpose.

Based on your posts in the last few pages of this thread - you've made up your mind and I'm not going to debate.

To me the only puck possessions gains / losses that matter are during PP and PK.

Cheers!

 

[duhmetreE]

thanks for your insight I had no idea

you could have fooled me

edit:
you're speaking out of both sides of your mouth. Saying faceoffs have no value.. dependent on talent on the ice... Getting the puck to that talent has no value? Possession the puck in the offensive zone has no value? Gaining possession of the puck in the defensive zone has no value?

You're all over the place and not making any sense. ALL STATS are based off of the talent on the ice and structure, not only face-offs.

 

[wafflepadsave]

I'm still game for a Staal for Backes trade

We’re probably the only three representing both fan bases.

 

[RickChartraw]

Ok, let's break it down a bit further. A clean face-off win gives your team an extra possession. Now think about how many puck possessions are there in a single game? To make it very easy for illustration - let's say it is 100 ES and that a given team scores 2 ES gpg. So you need 50 extra possessions off of face-off win to convert it into another goal. Even if you're a face-off wizard who got 60% - even then winning 1 extra possession over 10 tries will barely make a blip as a variable that makes impact on winning compared to others.

I probably didn't read back far enough, but I'd rather win the face-off.

 

[Avery16]

Wow this Kovy for Staal topic just wont die maybe there’s something to it after all

 

[kovazub94]

I probably didn't read back far enough, but I'd rather win the face-off.

Of course you'd rather win a faceoff. But how important of a variable is it compared to others?

Part of my work responsibilities includes identifying key variables when reporting to my superiors (like quarterlies to CFO, etc). There are literally hundreds of variables around the world each with some positive or negative impact, but not of them are equal and I better not talk about those with minimal impact.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Of course you'd rather win a faceoff. But how important of a variable is it compared to others?

Part of my work responsibilities includes identifying key variables when reporting to my superiors (like quarterlies to CFO, etc). There are literally hundreds of variables around the world each with some positive or negative impact, but not of them are equal and I better not talk about those with minimal impact.

Except in hockey, one face off can be the difference between winning a game 7 in OT, or having your season end.

 

[aufheben]

Ok, let's break it down a bit further. A clean face-off win gives your team an extra possession. Now think about how many puck possessions are there in a single game? To make it very easy for illustration - let's say it is 100 ES and that a given team scores 2 ES gpg. So you need 50 extra possessions off of face-off win to convert it into another goal. Even if you're a face-off wizard who got 60% - even then winning 1 extra possession over 10 tries will barely make a blip as a variable that makes impact on winning compared to others.

This. And what you said doesn’t even factor in that many face offs aren’t clean wins, and the winning team can still lose possession immediately.

 

[kovazub94]

Except in hockey, one face off can be the difference between winning a game 7 in OT, or having your season end.

And so can a hit along the boards, or penalty or a simple ricochet, etc.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

And so can a hit along the boards, or penalty or a simple ricochet, etc.

For sure, but i'm not the one trying to downplay the value of face offs. Coaches draw up plays specifically for face offs. You don't think they think they're important?

 

[aufheben]

Except in hockey, one face off can be the difference between winning a game 7 in OT, or having your season end.

Even when looking at just one play, the winning team still has to keep possession, take a shot, and score. Teams lose possession frequently, and like 9/10 shots don’t go in, so even if you execute the first two perfectly, you still have to start the process right over again 9/10 times.