Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLVI

[BKGooner]

Staal was the first guy I thought of... Staal + 20 for 11. lol Just for giggles how about Kreider to Anaheim for 9 and a Corey Perry Cap dump? So so unlikely, but that would be the best first round ever. Until the Rangers take Spencer Knight at 9.

 

[McRanger]

How I see it playing out:

'19-'20 - they will probably be a bad team, though they could be a bubble team.
'20-'21 - they will probably be a bubble team, though they could be solidly in the playoffs
'21-'22 - they will probably be solidly in the playoffs, though they could be a top team

And by after '22 if this rebuild hasn't led to some contending, we are in trouble.

 

[Leetch3]

How I see it playing out:

'19-'20 - they will probably be a bad team, though they could be a bubble team.
'20-'21 - they will probably be a bubble team, though they could be solidly in the playoffs
'21-'22 - they will probably be solidly in the playoffs, though they could be a top team

And by after '22 if this rebuild hasn't led to some contending, we are in trouble.

I don't agree we are in trouble...I agree with your timeline and its very realistic, but it also has a nice amount of optimism in it about the development of our kids. if that time line slips a couple of years we will still be fine.

 

[broadwayblue]

Staal was the first guy I thought of... Staal + 20 for 11. lol Just for giggles how about Kreider to Anaheim for 9 and a Corey Perry Cap dump? So so unlikely, but that would be the best first round ever. Until the Rangers take Spencer Knight at 9.

Gorton is already on record saying they won't select a goalie in the 1st round. lol

 

[Leetch3]

Gorton is already on record saying they won't select a goalie in the 1st round. lol

its called bluffing so other teams don't know who you are trying to trade up for lol

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I don't agree we are in trouble...I agree with your timeline and its very realistic, but it also has a nice amount of optimism in it about the development of our kids. if that time line slips a couple of years we will still be fine.

If that timeline slips a couple of years, Gorton and Quinn will be far from fine.

 

[BKGooner]

If the trades i posted mostly joking come to pass, all bets are off. Well other than 2 NHL teams should be looking for new gms. If the Rangers miraculously end up with 3 in the top 15, Kaako, best center remaining, best wing remaining in that order. Trade whatever players who would be under 25 top 9 contenders and don't meet expectations for D and future draft picks..

 

[McRanger]

I don't agree we are in trouble...I agree with your timeline and its very realistic, but it also has a nice amount of optimism in it about the development of our kids. if that time line slips a couple of years we will still be fine.

Eh I'm not much worried about up front but if we haven't solidified defense and goaltending by then I will be worried.

 

[Leetch3]

If that timeline slips a couple of years, Gorton and Quinn will be far from fine.

i couldn't disagree more...impatient fans trying to put a timeline on things isn't changing the rangers plan. JD used the word patience over a hundred times. they know this is going to take awhile

 

[Leetch3]

Eh I'm not much worried about up front but if we haven't solidified defense and goaltending by then I will be worried.

you obviously want to see progress...but the bad contracts have 2 more years left and you might not see miller & lundkvist for another year or 2, plus the time it takes for them to really contribute, to say if we aren't contending in 3-4 years its a disaster and we are in trouble is a bit much considering the best case scenario to fix the blueline is probably 2 years.

 

[Calad]

It’s very rare that teams are able to quick and easy get out of a rebuild.

Not commenting on if I believe in it or not, but if we can get out of this rebuild within 5 years I think we are hitting better than average for rebuilding teams. 6-7 years in total.

However, there are exceptions. But it’s not easy and it’s certainly not going to be easy for us.

I think ‘getting out of the rebuild’ will be very similar to the situation when we drafted Lias. Many thought that a 7th overall pick was guaranteed to be able to step in right away and dominate in the NHL. Then when he wasn’t able to do that many turned on him and now he is in general considered to be a bust, by many at least. In reality it’s probably fair to label it as him coming along fine and at a pace that can be expected, and that he probably will turn out to be a decent pick in that range.

Many already have this pretty absurd notion that Gorton just can ‘stop’ the rebuild by snapping his fingers. What is that even supposed to mean? Things can go well and we might get into the POs soon, but we might as well miss it. And if you start to miss them year in and year out, it creates a lot of trouble.

People are laughing at posters now that aren’t certain that we will contend in 21/22. But it’s the very same posters that will act like spoiled kids and blame it on Gorton/Quinn and everyone else if we don’t. When we probably are coming around just fine — just like with Lias — the world will be coming down in Rangerland.

Toronto started their rebuild after their collapse in the 2013 shortened playoffs: Nylander 8th in '14, Marner 4th in '15, Matthews 1st in '16. Its notable that they had trouble in the 11-12 season with bad goaltending and a coaching change, they did get Morgan Reilly 5th OA in '12 after that. Note they did not acquire much extra draft capital over that time, aside from the Kessel trade which they used that 1st to acquire Andersen from the ducks (for the Sam Steel pick). They got back to the playoffs in '17, and while they have been successful in them, they have been a legitimate threat since returning.

By contrast, Gorton had multiple 1st picks in 17 (7,21) 18 (9, 22, 28) and 19(2, 20) and potentially in 20 with possible Zucc resigning, or a Kreider trade. We are entering year 3 of the rebuild. I am of the opinion the rebuild started with the Stepan trade. Some will argue that this was not the start of the rebuild but an attempt at "retooling", but considering that was a failed attempt and ended with the Kravtsov pick in the following draft this season in hindsight will mark the beginning of the rebuild. Gorts collected tons of assets since the Stepan trade through Nash, McD (and JT), Grabner, Hayes, Zucc. He has used those extra assets to acquire prospects with upside, and swung for the fences with a few draft picks and seems to have hit on a few of them. We got our stroke of good luck with the Kaako lottery pick.

Make no mistake, the organization is still very young and the kids still have a lot to learn. But Gorton has put them in a position to succeed going forward, with JD's focus on improving the development path via Hartford and where many of these players are in their development now I don't think it's unreasonable to hope that the team turns a corner after 2 more years in the 21-22 season after the expansion draft. All that remains is to instill a strong, winning culture in the revitalized franchise.

 

[trench23]

Toronto started their rebuild after their collapse in the 2013 shortened playoffs: Nylander 8th in '14, Marner 4th in '15, Matthews 1st in '16. Its notable that they had trouble in the 11-12 season with bad goaltending and a coaching change, they did get Morgan Reilly 5th OA in '12 after that. Note they did not acquire much extra draft capital over that time, aside from the Kessel trade which they used that 1st to acquire Andersen from the ducks (for the Sam Steel pick). They got back to the playoffs in '17, and while they have been successful in them, they have been a legitimate threat since returning.

By contrast, Gorton had multiple 1st picks in 17 (7,21) 18 (9, 22, 28) and 19(2, 20) and potentially in 20 with possible Zucc resigning, or a Kreider trade. We are entering year 3 of the rebuild. I am of the opinion the rebuild started with the Stepan trade. Some will argue that this was not the start of the rebuild but an attempt at "retooling", but considering that was a failed attempt and ended with the Kravtsov pick in the following draft this season in hindsight will mark the beginning of the rebuild. Gorts collected tons of assets since the Stepan trade through Nash, McD (and JT), Grabner, Hayes, Zucc. He has used those extra assets to acquire prospects with upside, and swung for the fences with a few draft picks and seems to have hit on a few of them. We got our stroke of good luck with the Kaako lottery pick.

Make no mistake, the organization is still very young and the kids still have a lot to learn. But Gorton has put them in a position to succeed going forward, with JD's focus on improving the development path via Hartford and where many of these players are in their development now I don't think it's unreasonable to hope that the team turns a corner after 2 more years in the 21-22 season after the expansion draft. All that remains is to instill a strong, winning culture in the revitalized franchise.

I would also add that we have "vets" like a Zibanejad, Lemieux, Skjei, possibly Kreids and Lundy that are very capable in their roles as the kids develop. Having, in theory, and already established 1C (even if not elite) for the rebuild to add to is a great place to start.

 

[bobbop]

That's exactly how the FO sees it imo and they will follow that plan. There will be no buyouts and we will see Staal, Hank, Shat and Smith here until their contracts end.

What pisses me off about this buyout-talk, is that it is obviously a better choice to just sit the contracts out. We have cap space now, a very young prospect pool that doesn't need to be thrown into the cold water now and a rebuiling objective. Everything is working according to plan, no iceberg in sight.

Exactly how do you know what the front office thinks? Especially the recently revised front office?

Go read the last four paragraphs of Brooks article on Davidson last week.

 

[Synergy27]

Eh I'm not much worried about up front but if we haven't solidified defense and goaltending by then I will be worried.

Call me optimistic (I don't hear that often) but I think the Fox trade was a giant step forward in solidifying this defense. There are still some ifs remaining, but IF he and Miller become at least 85% of what they're supposed to be, the Rangers defense is looking great to me in a couple of years. I still think they will need to swing a trade for a legitimate #1 if possible, but ADA, Skjei, Fox (at or near potential), and Miller (at or near potential) is a really good core/middle four.

I'm not going to lose sleep over who plays the #6/7 role. If it's not one of the myriad other prospects in the system, those roles can easily be filled by FAs. The Bruins are about to win the Cup again while trotting John Moore and Kampfer out there for f***'s sake.

I don't think Karlsson is the right fit due to age and injury history, but in my ideal scenario, we suck for one more year, get yet another stud forward in the 2020 lottery, and then package some prospects who have naturally slid down the depth chart a bit (Andersson, Chytil, etc.) for a 1D to anchor an all of a sudden modern and skilled defense in 2020-21.

I have zero concern about goaltending, even if Shestyorkin isn't as advertised.

 

[True Blue]

By contrast, Gorton had multiple 1st picks in 17 (7,21) 18 (9, 22, 28) and 19(2, 20) and potentially in 20 with possible Zucc resigning, or a Kreider trade. We are entering year 3 of the rebuild. I am of the opinion the rebuild started with the Stepan trade. Some will argue that this was not the start of the rebuild but an attempt at "retooling", but considering that was a failed attempt and ended with the Kravtsov pick in the following draft this season in hindsight will mark the beginning of the rebuild. Gorts collected tons of assets since the Stepan trade through Nash, McD (and JT), Grabner, Hayes, Zucc. He has used those extra assets to acquire prospects with upside, and swung for the fences with a few draft picks and seems to have hit on a few of them. We got our stroke of good luck with the Kaako lottery pick.

The rebuild is 1.25 years in. So it is not entering it's third year. Sorry, but in a year in which you signed Shattenkirk and then proceeded to make no TDL moves to unload players, that hardly seems like a rebuild. Gorton may have had his eye on the future back in '17, but that does not change the narrative to somehow believe that the rebuild started then.

 

[Calad]

The rebuild is 1.25 years in. So it is not entering it's third year. Sorry, but in a year in which you signed Shattenkirk and then proceeded to make no TDL moves to unload players, that hardly seems like a rebuild. Gorton may have had his eye on the future back in '17, but that does not change the narrative to somehow believe that the rebuild started then.

Shattenkirk was signed a 4 year contract, the exact length of Hank and the rest of the veteran D contracts.

The bolded is factually incorrect. The same season they signed Shattenkirk was the same season they traded away Nash, McD, JTM, Grabner, Holden all at the deadline. The only difference is "The Letter" was put out in February at the deadline instead of at the draft beforehand.

If that season was a rebuilding season, this past season was also a rebuilding season, then the upcoming season is the 3rd year of a rebuild.

 

[QJL]

I would also add that we have "vets" like a Zibanejad, Lemieux, Skjei, possibly Kreids and Lundy that are very capable in their roles as the kids develop. Having, in theory, and already established 1C (even if not elite) for the rebuild to add to is a great place to start.

Lemieux has played 72 NHL games. 12 less than Chytil. That is not veteran status. This team doesn’t have much of that.

Say what you will about the importance of a veteran presence. Every team just needs a few solid leaders in my opinion.

 

[True Blue]

Shattenkirk was signed a 4 year contract, the exact length of Hank and the rest of the veteran D contracts.

The bolded is factually incorrect. The same season they signed Shattenkirk was the same season they traded away Nash, McD, JTM, Grabner, Holden all at the deadline. The only difference is "The Letter" was put out in February at the deadline instead of at the draft beforehand.

If that season was a rebuilding season, this past season was also a rebuilding season, then the upcoming season is the 3rd year of a rebuild.

You are correct, I had my years reversed. That was when the trades commenced.

That does not change the fact that the rebuild started at the end of 2017 season, not earlier. As such, it is 1.25 years in. The length of the contract that Shattenkirk signed has nothing to do with it.

 

[Off Sides]

I'd just use the letter as the official start to them rebuilding as it seemed like they were trying to say something about rebuilding in that letter.

I too have suspicions they were making some moves with an eye on maybe having to send out that letter at a later date, yet until the letter came out my suspicions were only that.

For all we know they could have been thinking of trading Lias and Chytil for vets had that season looked like it would result in the playoffs.

All the same I'm not sure it really matters, the shear number of added picks/youth, many of which have not even played an NHL game yet, is probably indicating their current intentions.

 

[McRanger]

you obviously want to see progress...but the bad contracts have 2 more years left and you might not see miller & lundkvist for another year or 2, plus the time it takes for them to really contribute, to say if we aren't contending in 3-4 years its a disaster and we are in trouble is a bit much considering the best case scenario to fix the blueline is probably 2 years.

By the offseason of '23 Skjei will be 29, Georgiev, Shesyorkin and Deangelo will be 27, Fox, Hajek, Reunanen and Lindgren will be 25 and Miller and Lundqvist will be 23. If this crop (and whatever other assets they add from now until then) aren't the backbone of a defensive/goaltending unit capable of making the Rangers a threat by then, I will be both surprised and disappointed.

 

[Calad]

You are correct, I had my years reversed. That was when the trades commenced.

That does not change the fact that the rebuild started at the end of 2017 season, not earlier. As such, it is 1.25 years in. The length of the contract that Shattenkirk signed has nothing to do with it.

At the point at which Shattenkirk signed, the team was pivoting towards a "retooling" , and as I mentioned in my previous post

Some will argue that this was not the start of the rebuild but an attempt at "retooling"

Trading Stepan to "get younger" brought in 2 very raw assets, neither of which were ready for NHL play even though Lias was marketed as an NHL ready player. Shattenkirk was certainly seen as an instant improvement to our defense and a 'win now' move, but his injuries and poor play did nothing to help the team compete. The rest of the team was not up to par and they dropped heavily in the standings.

In hindsight, the Shattenkirk signing was a brilliant move by Gorton because of the length of his contract. Either he worked out and the team was competitive for another couple runs in the remainder of Hank's tenure, or he didn't work out and the team continued to falter which gave Gorton the impetus to do a legit rebuild his way, which leaves Shattenkirk as a vet to fill out the roster while our young talent matures.

We have been trading away significant assets for two years now, we are entering the third year. We can continue to argue the semantics of the situation, but where will that get us?

 

[Off Sides]

By the offseason of '23 Skjei will be 29, Georgiev, Shesyorkin and Deangelo will be 27, Fox, Hajek, Reunanen and Lindgren will be 25 and Miller and Lundqvist will be 23. If this crop (and whatever other assets they add from now until then) aren't the backbone of a defensive/goaltending unit capable of making the Rangers a threat by then, I will be both surprised and disappointed.

I think they will have improved much by then.

I think what they do between now and the end of the summer of 2021 will pretty much largely be the rebuild. Yet I am not so sure they are going to go with windows this time around. They may even figure out a way to make the playoffs pretty annually, advance in them sometimes, and still need to show up on the first day of the draft.

 

[I Eat Crow]

This reminds me of the time NYR was going to bet me that Quinn was going to name Shattenkirk captain. He didn't end up making the bet because he was concerned it would make me insolvent.

It's the hair bet all over again here. Madness.

 

[kinger8998]

i know not everyone can agree on when the Rangers will be good again, but there isn't a specific rulebook on rebuilds saying they must take 5-10 years. sure, edmontons and buffalos may have, but they haven't necessarily been rebuilds yuo'd like to model yours after lol...

i would say we're going to have another very good draft pick in the 2020 draft, whether we sign a big free agent or not, and then 2021 we have a very good shot at being a fringe playoff team. if we get in in 20-21 i would not be surprised to see a longer playoff run in 21-22, but if we dont' I'd say you set everything back 1 year (Playoffs 21-22, Deep Run 22-23).

sure i could be wrong in this thinking, but kravtsov and kakko in their 3/4 years, chytil in his 4/5, buchnevich finally breaking out, some likely free agent/trade additions and progression of young defenseman & shesterkin being mentored by hank will go a long way.

i dont see the need to be pessimistic about anything and label this as a 5-10 year process, i don't think it will turn around next year by any means but i think 3-4 years to contention/long playoff run by surprise isnt overly optimistic, its just right

 

[SA16]

There's no such thing as a 10 year rebuild. If you're not good in 10 years your rebuild failed and you're into another one. In 10 years Kakko will potentially be on his 3rd contract and nearing 30 years old.