Toggle sidebar

Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLII

  • We're expecting server maintenance on March 3rd starting at midnight, there may be downtime during the work.
  • Xenforo Cloud has upgraded us to version 2.3.6. Please report any issues you experience.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Beacon said:
Cool. So we can sign a star who will make it to UFA around the time Kakko is 20-24, when he, along with Chytil, Kravtsov and K'Andre, are at least close to his prime. We can use the star UFA when his best years intersect with our kids' prime, not when we waste his best years while our kids are rookies.
Click to expand...
If they actually make it to UFA, which based on what we have seen isn't likely.
 
Beacon said:
I looked at the results of draftees in the same spot, gave you the median number of games played and points scored, and showed how many total players at the draft spot became long term NHLers.
Click to expand...
As did I, for the last decade because like I keep saying, data from 20-30 years ago does not matter any more. NHL GMs don't think that way, training is different, and I can't believe I keep having to explain this to you.

Here's that list again. Tell me again how it's 50% to be a 4th liner or a bust. <-- this is the point I keep nagging you on because it's just not accurate anymore. Besides, this is wasting thread space here and I'm done arguing it. You're not changing your mind. The prior 3 picks are Couture, Cowen, and Josh Bailey.

Mikael Granlund: 477 GP: 94-228-322
Dougie Hamilton: 505GP: 82-177-259
Jacob Trouba: 408GP: 42-137- 179
Bo Horvat: 377GP: 98-124-222
Nik Ehlers: 298GP: 90-109-199
Timo Meier: 193GP: 54-54-108
Mikhail Sergachev: 158GP: 15-57-72
Michael Rasmussen: 62GP: 8-10-18
Vitali Kravtsov: Alexander Yakushev
Trevor Zegras (NYR) Jack Hughes, who?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: eco's bones
I still have no idea how people have the mindset that the team can go from bottom-feeder lacking top end talent and then in one off-season when the 'youth timing is right' or whatever just flip a switch and decide we are going to compete for the cup the next year. That doesn't work.

Going from a bottom team to a contending team is gradual.
 
The better the kids are looking at with the show Kakko is putting on -- its hard not to feel like Panarin would be a pretty bad fit. No matter if you get Kakko or Hughes, you want guys that will do more dirty work for them. Sure Panarin makes players around him better, but like look at Russia when they put a bunch of guys like Malkin and AO and Kucherov or Kuznetzov on the ice -- they also make players around them better but that doesn't mean that they need players that can do the dirty work for them. Its a bit the same when you see the US. Panarin is someone that should be put in a position to lead the play when he is on the ice, even if he made it work with Kane, that is a bit different. Sure, if we got a Cozens or Dach or someone like that -- Panarin would certainly help (even if you still could question if its worth 7x11 or whatever).

Kravy isn't going to need a ton of time, its unnecessary to put too much pressure on a kid and we shouldn't freak out if a kid does need some time to adjust -- but really, Kravy's style is really top percentile when it comes to adjusting to new environments etc. He will sooner rather than later be ready to play a bigger role and starts to take more responsibility as a scorer. The same for Kakko, or Hughes, who knows...

Not sure if having an UFA signing trying to earn the biggest UFA contract ever, or close to it, in the midst of it is that perfect.
 
Alluckks said:
I still have no idea how people have the mindset that the team can go from bottom-feeder lacking top end talent and then in one off-season when the 'youth timing is right' or whatever just flip a switch and decide we are going to compete for the cup the next year. That doesn't work.

Going from a bottom team to a contending team is gradual.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't rule it out, in two years, if we didn't have Smith, Shatty, Staal and Girardi's buy-out... ;)
 
Ola said:
I wouldn't rule it out, in two years, if we didn't have Smith, Shatty, Staal and Girardi's buy-out... ;)
Click to expand...
It does not happen overnight.

You don't go from bottom dwelling team to true cup contender.

You're making an imaginary argument.
 
Alluckks said:
It does not happen overnight.

You don't go from bottom dwelling team to true cup contender.

You're making an imaginary argument.
Click to expand...

Not sure what argument I supposedly made, the fastest turnarounds I’ve seen have been two years. Worthless to good regular season but first round loss to cup final.

The way up — when it starts — is usually pretty fast for the teams that really hits it out of the park with their rebuild. Qubeck/Colorado, Pittsburgh, LAK, Chicago and co. From missing the POs the last time to winning a cup it was just 2-3 seasons for all those teams.

So there is no law of physics that say that it’s impossible to win a Cup two years after missing the POs. But it is impossible if you have 20m tied up in Girardi, Staal, Shatty and Smith, I think we all can agree with that. ;)
 
  • Like
Reactions: pld459666
Ola said:
Not sure what argument I supposedly made, the fastest turnarounds I’ve seen have been two years. Worthless to good regular season but first round loss to cup final.

The way up — when it starts — is usually pretty fast for the teams that really hits it out of the park with their rebuild. Qubeck/Colorado, Pittsburgh, LAK, Chicago and co. From missing the POs the last time to winning a cup it was just 2-3 seasons for all those teams.

So there is no law of physics that say that it’s impossible to win a Cup two years after missing the POs. But it is impossible if you have 20m ties up in Girardi, Staal, Shatty and Smith, I think we all can agree with that. ;)
Click to expand...
My point was the people that want to jettison players while signing no one and finish bottom 5 next year practically intentionally and then expect to compete for the cup the next year

It doesn't happen like that

And missing the playoffs is entirely different from being bottom of the league

And a 2 year turn around is the absolute best case scenario, it seems foolish to count on that
 
Avery16 said:
True, but were like bottom five this season until about a month after Yeo was fired.
Click to expand...
Half a season is nothing in the context of the point that I was making and what is being debated. You're talking about a partial season slump when the conversation is about a team that finishes bottom of the league multiple years during a rebuild trying to become a competitor.
 
Mac n Gs said:
As did I, for the last decade because like I keep saying, data from 20-30 years ago does not matter any more. NHL GMs don't think that way, training is different, and I can't believe I keep having to explain this to you.

Here's that list again. Tell me again how it's 50% to be a 4th liner or a bust.
Click to expand...


You realize that if someone said about MDZ's 37 point teen rookie season he will be a 6/7 D in his prime, people would rip you to shreds? How about telling someone that sophomore second liner Niklas Sundstrom who just had 52 points will actually be a 3rd liner in his prime and never again hit 50?

You can't judge a guy by 1-2 seasons and project that he will only get better. Every top draftee looks amazing early on. Not every one of them only moves forward. That's why as long as I remember, people have been saying that recent draftees are better than old ones.

Also, if you're looking at only a few years of the draft, then expand your sample to a couple picks around it so you have a better sample to draw from. Tiny samples accentuate outliers.
 
Anybody watching Blues and sharks? Karlsson still looks hobbled. If pro scouts think this guy is worth offering a big contract, then they all need to go.
 
Gorton could very conceivably rebuild this roster this offseason. We’ve heard rumors of guys like Trouba and Nylander as being available. There will be others. Many of us want Gorton to continue the rebuild but nothing states he can’t start adding some good young talent this offseason.

He needs to start by moving guys like Kreider and Namestnikov. Look to trade Shattenkirk perhaps with some salary retention or taking a forward back who they can use in a depth role.

Let’s assume:

Andersson + Skjei for Trouba
Trouba is re-signed for 7 years at $7m per season

Kreider for ARI 1st ‘19 + Crouse

Shattenkirk for Zack Smith + Mike Condon

Namestnikov for EDM 2nd ‘20

The Nylander deal is the difficult one for me to determine. I’m sure the Rangers have the pieces if desired.

If Gorton was able to do these deals, would anyone then consider Panarin? The lineup would be considerably better with the above changes along with Kakko, Kravtsov and possibly Hajek. You’d probably be looking at a playoff team
 
Beacon said:
When Del Zotto scored 37 points as a teenage rookie defenseman and Grachev was hyped to no end, they were proof that 2008 scouting was great unlike 1998 or 1988 scouting. Today, MDZ and Grachev are viewed as proof of the failure of scouting a decade ago.
Click to expand...

Del Zotto has played 600+ NHL games and is 28 years old. How is that a failure and how, in the holy hell, is that comparable to Grachev of all people?

He might not have become what we thought after that rookie year, but 600+ NHL games is a resounding success story, not a failure.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GodlyRangers, pld459666, DutchShamrock and 1 other person
Alluckks said:
I still have no idea how people have the mindset that the team can go from bottom-feeder lacking top end talent and then in one off-season when the 'youth timing is right' or whatever just flip a switch and decide we are going to compete for the cup the next year. That doesn't work.

Going from a bottom team to a contending team is gradual.
Click to expand...
I always hate the quintessentially HFBoards depth chart that shows every guy your team drafted ready to play a key role on a top team, like no one ever gets moved and everyone always meets or exceeds their expectations. And I don't want Panarin - I basically just want a vet or two to make sure the penalty kill is steady so we don't get destroyed on it, especially with the young goalies.

But it's been such a wide open playoffs. A wide open season, really - the Islanders had 103 points and swept the Caps when they were supposed to be down in the basement with us and the Devils. I really liked watching the Habs this year, even if they're the Habs and they choked in their last 10 games. The Hurricanes finally put it together, though that's been coming for a while and they're a couple years ahead of us.

This is still a bad team, but I wouldn't look at a bottom team in this league like I would look at a bottom team in the NFL or the NBA. The Rangers were usually competitive, especially before the deadline. It wasn't an embarrassing product on the ice. And if it all goes right, in a way I don't expect but is still possible, then yeah, even our lesser vets like Vesey and Staal could still fill small but necessary roles on a good playoff team.
 
I miss the days when there could be injuries in the playoffs and SJ could do something like sign Dan Boyle right before the finals.
 
Avery16 said:
I hope he can keep that pace up for five more seasons
Click to expand...

Hobbled Karlsson just had the 3rd highest 5v5 assist rate in the league during the regular season this year.

The whole "hobbled" thing is a false narrative. He actually had one of his best seasons this year.

In fact, since his ankle injury he is 2nd among all defensemen in pts/60 (behind Weber) and 1st in assist rate. The injury is over with and I don't know why it gets repeated. It has not affected his production at all.
 
  • Like
Reactions: I Eat Crow
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom