Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XL

[haohmaru]

Well, 74 players were picked before Buchnevich. In 2011, we drafted Kim Jonsson last overall at the time when there were 11 rounds. He went on to have a 10 year career.

I think I overreached by saying Henry was as good as K'Andre. Probably a bit worse, but he was thought to have a lot of potential also. He went from 31 points in D-1 to 83 in D+1, along with 151 PIM. He was regarded as a very good prospect.

I just didn't understand the comparison in expectations from a guy picked in the 1st round to a guy picked in the 3rd. The expectations for the guy in the 1st are usually much higher.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Well, 74 players were picked before Buchnevich. In 2011, we drafted Kim Jonsson last overall at the time when there were 11 rounds. He went on to have a 10 year career.

I think I overreached by saying Henry was as good as K'Andre. Probably a bit worse, but he was thought to have a lot of potential also. He went from 31 points in D-1 to 83 in D+1, along with 151 PIM. He was regarded as a very good prospect.

I will never understand why PIM is considered a positive stat in hockey. I still see it today.

Same goes for hits. In a vacuum, hits is a useles stat, yet it's considered a good thing regardless the outcome

 

[haohmaru]

I will never understand why PIM is considered a positive stat in hockey. I still see it today.

Same goes for hits. In a vacuum, hits is a useles stat, yet it's considered a good thing regardless the outcome

IDK - if these playoffs are teaching us something it's that the NHL's "heavy" teams that play a more physical game are having better success in the playoffs vs. talent. Players are getting bigger, goalies are getting bigger, and the amount of ice out there isn't changing. The Islanders and Columbus beat more talented teams, convincingly, because of their style and "weight". Stanley Cups are so damned hard to win because it's hard to get the balance right, the timing right, and the luck factor simultaneously.

I'm sure TB is scratching their heads wondering how much of a better team they could've put out there.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

IDK - if these playoffs are teaching us something it's that the NHL's "heavy" teams that play a more physical game are having better success in the playoffs vs. talent. Players are getting bigger, goalies are getting bigger, and the amount of ice out there isn't changing. The Islanders and Columbus beat more talented teams, convincingly, because of their style and "weight". Stanley Cups are so damned hard to win because it's hard to get the balance right, the timing right, and the luck factor simultaneously.

I'm sure TB is scratching their heads wondering how much of a better team they could've put out there.

Yeah, I didn't say physical hockey is irrelevant. Just that PIM as a stat is useless and hits in general.

I wish they would count hits that result in a turnover as a stat. That would be much more telling than just "hits". if you don't cause a turnover with your hit, it puts you out of position, but it still counts as a hit. It's flawed, just like plus-minus.

 

[haohmaru]

Yeah, I didn't say physical hockey is irrelevant. Just that PIM as a stat is useless and hits in general.

I wish they would count hits that result in a turnover as a stat. That would be much more telling than just "hits". if you don't cause a turnover with your hit, it puts you out of position, but it still counts as a hit. It's flawed, just like plus-minus.

I agree with PIM's being a stupid "positive" stat.

Hits, though, especially in the playoffs are something cumulative that can take its toll on players as the post season wears on. I think it's worth tracking even if it's a little arbitrary.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I will never understand why PIM is considered a positive stat in hockey. I still see it today.

Same goes for hits. In a vacuum, hits is a useles stat, yet it's considered a good thing regardless the outcome

Pims and hits basically hint at a physical style of play, I agree with you on the pims stat not so much on the hits though I find that analytics based decisions in hockey in general arent as effective as they are in other sports. I can't stand someone spouting off about some players analytics and he is stinking up the ice nightly but doing things that make his numbers look good. The problem with analytics now is that players have figured out how to skew them now in their favour instead of doing things that might actually help the team,they are pumping their own numbers. The teams that have gone all in on analytics haven't done that well so far, Florida, Arizona have gone full analytic and even the high flying Leafs are all missing things that can't be measured by numbers. Imo an educated person watching the game is better than a bunch of numbers on a page especially when trying to build a contender. To me analytics should be used as a way of pointing out players to go watch not as a way of deciding if a player is good or not.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I agree with PIM's being a stupid "positive" stat.

Hits, though, especially in the playoffs are something cumulative that can take its toll on players as the post season wears on. I think it's worth tracking even if it's a little arbitrary.

Hits are the exact opposite of giveaways in a way.

You need to have the puck to register a giveaway
You need to be without the puck to register a hit

The players who lead the league in giveaways are usually the best possession players like Karlsson, Gaudreau, Draisailt, Burns etc. Whereas the players who lead the league in hits are players like Russell, Larsson, Martin, Gudas.

Leading your team in hits doesn't make you a good player. It just means you are always chasing the puck, instead of controlling it.

If the NHL could give me a stat of successful hits instead of just hits in general, I would be happy.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I never really put much into hits and take aways/give away...the definition is incredible varied from rink to rink. One rink could say Peter had 10 hits, but the next rink might only count 2 of his hits as actual hits. Same with take aways/give aways.

 

[haohmaru]

Hits are the exact opposite of giveaways in a way.

You need to have the puck to register a giveaway
You need to be without the puck to register a hit

The players who lead the league in giveaways are usually the best possession players like Karlsson, Gaudreau, Draisailt, Burns etc. Whereas the players who lead the league in hits are players like Russell, Larsson, Martin, Gudas.

Leading your team in hits doesn't make you a good player. It just means you are always chasing the puck, instead of controlling it.

If the NHL could give me a stat of successful hits instead of just hits in general, I would be happy.

Yeah, but there's much more to it than that.

I mean, most teams aren't going to have the puck roughly 50% of the time. Cumulative, or impending large, hits can cause the player with puck possession to make a different decision with the puck, turn the puck over, not make the pass and take the hit, try to avoid the hit, etc... There's more to it than making the play or turning the puck over.

 

[haohmaru]

I never really put much into hits and take aways/give away...the definition is incredible varied from rink to rink. One rink could say Peter had 10 hits, but the next rink might only count 2 of his hits as actual hits. Same with take aways/give aways.

Yeah, agree, that's why I said "arbitrary". It's something I would watch as a coach or a fan or whatever, but I wouldn't say is accurate looking at a boxscore. Still worth tracking IMHO. I think giveaways/takeaways are even less accurate than hit stats.

 

[pld459666]

I thouht were were talking about the number of first rounders 2017-2019.

Lias
Chytil
Howden
Ada
Kravrsov
Miller
Lundqvist
#2OA
#22

That's 9 with a possible 10th depending on what Dallas does.

 

[haohmaru]

Lias
Chytil
Howden
Ada
Kravrsov
Miller
Lundqvist
#2OA
#22

That's 9 with a possible 10th depending on what Dallas does.

ADA was 2014

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Yeah, agree, that's why I said "arbitrary". It's something I would watch as a coach or a fan or whatever, but I wouldn't say is accurate looking at a boxscore. Still worth tracking IMHO. I think giveaways/takeaways are even less accurate than hit stats.

Agreed they are completely all of the place from what I gathered.

The only time I really look at the hits is if we trade for a player, I like to see if they are physical or not so i'll check out their hits compared to everyone on the team they were on.

 

[pld459666]

ADA was 2014

I'm referring to 1st rounders that have been acquired between 2017-19 drafts.

 

[haohmaru]

I'm referring to 1st rounders that have been acquired between 2017-19 drafts.

Where's Strome then?

 

[haohmaru]

Namestnikov too

 

[pld459666]

I'm not hung up on how talent is acquired.

In fact, I'd suggest not getting to attached to some of the prospects we have now as there will be one or two eventually packaged for a more pressing need elsewhere.

I could see a kid or two packaged for a more developed young defender to help this team.

Drafting talent is important
Signing talent is, in my opinion, just as important.
Trading for talent is very important as well, but the timing and target have to be right.

For me, I think you maximize a talent like Kakko by pairing him with other good to elite talent and a line of Panarin, Zibanejad and Kakko would do wonders for this kid.

Hell, you can split Mika and Artemi and run:

Kakko-Mika-Buchnevich
Panarin-Chytil-Kravtsov

I am of the belief that you help young offensive players better develope by playing with other offensive players in offensive situations.

 

[pld459666]

Namestnikov too

Very good points on both players

 

[duhmetreE]

Every year people here project rookies into the top-6 and it never works out. Yet, no lesson is learned. No trend is seen. Every time the question is, "what does rookie Kravtsov have to do with rookie Kreider/Miller/whoever" (who needed time in the minors and on bottom lines first). No, Kravtsov will not play in the top-6. Neither will Lias. And no, Gorton doesn't want to sign Panarin, nor does Panarin want to come to a rebuilding team. But if your lineup was thrown out there in October, it would be awful. God awful. Bottom 5 in the league. Because even if Kravtsov, Lias, Chytil, Hajek, etc all reach their ceiling one day, that day will not be when they are rookies and/or teenagers. Next year, they will not be good because outside of a few very special players (who usually get drafted 1OA or 2OA), almost no teenage rookie instantly becomes an above average NHLer.

Yeah every 'year'. When was the last 'year' we had top picks and we were rebuilding?

Do you have inside sources? Are you saying you want to sign UFA's? Or are you suggesting Names and Vesey would be better suited in the top6?

 

[pld459666]

Yeah every 'year'. When was the last 'year' we had top picks and we were rebuilding?

Do you have inside sources? Are you saying you want to sign UFA's? Or are you suggesting Names and Vesey would be better suited in the top6?

I don't think he's off with that statement.

Many on this board were penciling Anderson as a top 6 player

 

[duhmetreE]

I don't think he's off with that statement.

Many on this board were penciling Anderson as a top 6 player

That's irrelevant IMO. The point of rebuilding is to 'live and die' with a young roster. Expectations will sometimes differ from results. Hopefully soon, for the positive

What's the alternative? Playing veteran 'bottom6 players' in the top6? over our 'top prospects'?

Considering Kravtsov and Kakko played against men, they should be able to transition just fine. Chytil and Lias will have a year of exp., hopefully they exhibit some growth

 

[haohmaru]

Judging by the stretch this Spring, I'd say Buch is finally playing like the top 6 guy that people were predicting. Honestly, if you're not excited/positive about our youth and optimistic for the future then you'll likely never be. It's as good as it's been in nearly 30 years with more to come.

Panarin would be a nice piece/addition to this squad. That being said, I'm not crying if he signs with Florida either.

 

[Fitzy]

Just to reiterate, buying out Staal this off-season is a terrrible idea. Gives us a break only for this upcoming season and hurts us net in years three and four.

If your goal is to sign Panarin NYR can easily do that under the cap, especially if Kreider is traded.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

No reason to buyout Staal anyway. He was fine last season as a 4-5 dman and we need a real vet on the blueline to help the kids along. Staal will be here till his contract expires.

 

[duhmetreE]

Just to reiterate, buying out Staal this off-season is a terrrible idea. Gives us a break only for this upcoming season and hurts us net in years three and four.

If your goal is to sign Panarin NYR can easily do that under the cap, especially if Kreider is traded.

We'd save $2.8 in 2019, $2.0 in 2020 and it'd cost $1.2 against in 2021-2022. Not that bad.

It's not necessary per se but he'd be blocking a kid from playing next year. Wouldn't we want to see Rykov, Lindgren and/or Hajek get their chance?