Still very early in the year, so I would give it a month before I start to lock in the contenders versus the pretenders, but as of today, here's where I see the league in terms of teams that will make the playoffs and look to make some noise.
Eastern Conference
- Boston- Expect them to be a major player at the deadline and to take another run this year.
- Washington- They've looked like themselves, have some depth needs, but are playing to their identity.
- New York Islanders- One of the best structured teams out there. They will make a push, they've got depth, but they play a really good 200 foot game. Quinny, Ruff: Watch their games. It's all about team defense with them.
- Carolina- Exciting team, lots of speed and depth. They are in my contender profile. I've been running a couple of seasons long analytics exercise, and Carolina fits the bill. No it's based on shot attempts.
- Pittsburgh- Injuries and all, they are playing well. What's underrated about them is that the moved out some weak links on their backend and are getting it done by Sid and Company. If they upgrade their defense, then they will have a better shot, especially when Malkin comes back.
I had Toronto making the finals before the season started, but they look like they are a mess defensively. Soft. Expect them to be a good regular season team and outscore their problems, but this is a team that reminds me of the Rangers circa 2016 & 2017 with a lot more offensive firepower.
Western Conference
- Colorado- Similar to Carolina, they fit my contender profile. Hit with injuries, but their backend is going to get better, and they are much deeper than last year. They have a similar team building profile in mind that I think works very well in today's game. Makar is special.
- St. Louis- Defending cup champs. Might have a little hangover, and lost their best scorer. I've met some of their team staff, these guys get it. They've got a really good balance of capable veterans and youth.
- Nashville- I think they are back this year. It's a different team, with a ton of depth up the middle and on defense. DAL & WPG taking a step back, and CHI not taking a step forward helps them out a lot imo.
- Edmonton- Yes that Edmonton. They are banking on McDavid and Draisaitl for offense, and they play a very tight checking game on defense. Their defense isn't crap any more. Much like the Islanders, they are playing with structure. You are getting 230 points from two players. You need secondary scorers (Neal, RNH), and good special teams if you can play good team defense to win some games. Tippet is a hell of a coach. Does a lot with very little, and he has a lot, alongside very little.
- Vegas- I think they pick it up over the 2nd half. Stone is playing like a man possessed. Their defense is shoddy, but their forward depth is more than solid. Their goalie can steal enough games with that formula to get them into the show. They will need to buy.
As it stands today, these teams will be buyers at the deadline imo. Vancouver is an interesting one. They have depth, and they are good at creating match-ups, with legitimate shutdown pairs and checkers. They could use some help on their top 9, but not sure if this is the year to buy.
Things will evolve over the next month, but I expect the Rangers to be in sell-off mode once again at the deadline. The question to me is if we will just see rentals be moved, or if there will be some hockey trades as well.
So far I would expect the haul to be along the following for the rentals:
Kreider: Late 1st, B prospect, or a 1st round equivalent of a prospect.
Fast: A 3rd & a conditional 5th round pick, with an NHL body coming back.
McKegg: A conditional 5th round pick. Remember he played very well for Carolina last year in a depth role.
What's most intriguing are any potential hockey trades. I don't have any clue as to what they would be yet, but the Rangers 21-25 defense core in the NHL right now is going to make things very interesting. They did a really good job there with the trade acquisitions. That's a core you can start to build around, and see how the other prospects push for spots.
Goaltending as well. If Shesty keeps it up, and George steals more ice-time, the Rangers will have a lot ammunition for some creativity.