Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XIV

[LORDE]

I don't disagree, but that's certainly easier said than done. The thing for me is that Nylander checks off some of the wrong boxes. He will cost a lot to acquire and it's unlikely that we'll be able to get him for some combination of players that we already plan to trade. He will cost a lot to sign. And, he may not have the same level of success here that he has had in Toronto. Maybe he would be willing to take a smaller number on a team where he knows he is going to have a prominent role, but there's a significant amount of risk there.

From Toronto's POV, trading with us doesn't make much sense. They need defense and we don't have it.

If Gorton can find a deal that makes sense, I'm not against it, but I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means.

This is really the issue I have with him.

We don't have the assets (and the ones we DO have will be undervalued enough by TO to force an overpayment) on top of that we would have to pay him... then we have to hope he can sustain or improve in this environment.

It's a ton of question marks and we didn't even talk about how it doesn't put us over the edge. It makes us marginally better right now which shouldn't be what this team is about.

 

[SA16]

The Max Domi/ Alex Galchenyuk trade is a perfect example. Domi was dying in Arizona, now he's having a breakout year...

Max Domi shot 6% in Arizona. Now he is shooting 26%. That is his breakout.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Feel bad for Hagelin, guy can’t stick with a team for long.

Yeah, I feel bad for him and the 2 Cups he won.

 

[MetalJaws]

Is it just me or has Jesper fasth been playing like ass the last 2 or 3 weeks?

He's a 4th line player at best. He gets over used because he's right handed and a work horse. I think he's been ass for a lot longer than that.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Man, they should move Hayes. The return from him and the increased time for Lias and Howden are more valuable at this point.

It makes sense as long as we're getting proper value for him, but I'm extremely skeptical GMs around the league value Hayes appropriately. Not a big name, doesn't look overly flashy on the ice, no eye popping boxcar stats. Knowing the GMs in this league the pedigree and not being a name is the big one though.

I feel like the return on him would be very underwhelming. I don't want to trade a guy who's still getting better and probably one of the two 2 or 3 players on the team at this point JUST to trade him. I get the impression that Hayes is going to be a case that has more value to the Rangers than he does in a trade. If there's no proper value offer out there then I think we should keep him.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Max Domi shot 6% in Arizona. Now he is shooting 26%. That is his breakout.

Classic stat watching. Will he continue to shoot 26%?, obviously not. Is him playing better and getting better chances for himself a big reason why the Sh% is higher?, absolutely.

 

[Graves94]

Max Domi shot 6% in Arizona. Now he is shooting 26%. That is his breakout.

He needed a change of scenery in the worst way. I know he won't shoot at 26% going forward, but he's already got 10 goals, he had 9 in each of his last 2 seasons in ARI...
Besides scoring, he's all over the puck and has probably been Montreal's best player this year!

 

[NYR Viper]

It makes sense as long as we're getting proper value for him, but I'm extremely skeptical GMs around the league value Hayes appropriately. Not a big name, doesn't look overly flashy on the ice, no eye popping boxcar stats. Knowing the GMs in this league the pedigree and not being a name is the big one though.

I feel like the return on him would be very underwhelming. I don't want to trade a guy who's still getting better and probably one of the two 2 or 3 players on the team at this point JUST to trade him. I get the impression that Hayes is going to be a case that has more value to the Rangers than he does in a trade. If there's no proper value offer out there then I think we should keep him.

Martin Hanzal had 26 points in 51 games played before he was traded to Minnesota.
Traded with Ryan White who was out of the league the next season for a first-round pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, a second-round pick in 2018, a conditional pick in 2019 and forward Grayson Downing.


Eric Staal had 33 points in 63 games before being trade to NY. Eric also had a NMC.
Traded for second-round pick in 2016 and 2017, plus Finnish prospect Aleksi Saarela


Antoine Vermette had 35 points in 63 games before being traded to Chicago.
Traded for Klas Dahlbeck and a 2015 first-round draft pick (Nick Merkley) at the trade deadline

 

[Ghost of jas]

It makes sense as long as we're getting proper value for him, but I'm extremely skeptical GMs around the league value Hayes appropriately. Not a big name, doesn't look overly flashy on the ice, no eye popping boxcar stats. Knowing the GMs in this league the pedigree and not being a name is the big one though.

I feel like the return on him would be very underwhelming. I don't want to trade a guy who's still getting better and probably one of the two 2 or 3 players on the team at this point JUST to trade him. I get the impression that Hayes is going to be a case that has more value to the Rangers than he does in a trade. If there's no proper value offer out there then I think we should keep him.

Except that Friedman keeps saying there’s a great deal of interest in both Hayes and Zuccarello. I think Gorton could make a deal at any point, but he’s just waiting for his price.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Lias getting the Chytil treatment.

Where else would he play?

 

[Avery16]

He's a 4th line player at best. He gets over used because he's right handed and a work horse. I think he's been ass for a lot longer than that.

This is a disqualifying opinion.

 

[Trxjw]

Kings just dealt Pearson for a vet with one year left on his deal. The 4th period saying they may be exploring for the market for Toffoli as well. Sounds crazy but I wonder if they'd consider Zucc. They'd change their culture considerably, net similar offense, and clear $8+ mil in total for next year to make a run at Panarin.

 

[I Eat Crow]

The timing for the Kings to be blowing it up is very strange. A lot of their big contributors are injured. Pearson and Toffoli could still be part of a resurgence next season when everyone is healthy. I understand Rob Blake wanting a culture change, but for him to hit the panic button at this stage would be very strange. You trade players like Kyle Clifford in a culture change.

I wonder how Ilya Kovalchuk feels about signing with LA and watching this unfold.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Martin Hanzal had 26 points in 51 games played before he was traded to Minnesota.
Traded with Ryan White who was out of the league the next season for a first-round pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, a second-round pick in 2018, a conditional pick in 2019 and forward Grayson Downing.


Eric Staal had 33 points in 63 games before being trade to NY. Eric also had a NMC.
Traded for second-round pick in 2016 and 2017, plus Finnish prospect Aleksi Saarela


Antoine Vermette had 35 points in 63 games before being traded to Chicago.
Traded for Klas Dahlbeck and a 2015 first-round draft pick (Nick Merkley) at the trade deadline

Thanks. Although it's not what you meant, you're basically proving my point.

I fear that we are going to be offered packages like those, possibly even slightly less.

I wouldn't be happy with any of those packages. 2 2nds and a B prospect? Late 1st and a 2nd? Late 1st and a C prospect?

This is a 26 year old 2C, he should be getting more than that.

To me, Kevin Hayes has more value to the Rangers as a player on our team than a late 1st round pick and a prospect with 3rd line ceiling.

There's no guarantee whoever we pick will ever be as good as Hayes and this isn't a case like Nash where it's an aging player you want to move on from. Hayes is in his prime and has 4 or 5 very good years still in front of him.


This is far from a "have to move him, take whatever you can get" scenario than a lot of people on here think it is. It's a somewhat unique situation because not a lot of players get moved in this situation. 26, still in his prime, getting better. The only reason to trade him is to open space for the kids, players like this are usually not available.

Now, if someone wants to give fair value for Hayes then by all means. Same goes for anyone else on the team. But I would disappointed if we got in the ballpark of the Eric Staal return or the Vermette return. And these things aren't linear, you can't point at those returns and infer that Hayes will get that plus more bc he's younger and better. Doesn't always work like that.

My big fear is the Staal/Vermette/Hanzal deals being viewed as comparable, maybe even less. Gorton taking it because he wants to open space and basically giving away the prime years of Hayes for nothing. I'm not saying I'm not okay with trading Hayes, I just worry we're not going to get fair value.

Except that Friedman keeps saying there’s a great deal of interest in both Hayes and Zuccarello. I think Gorton could make a deal at any point, but he’s just waiting for his price.

Yeah but just because teams are interested doesn't mean they're going to give fair value.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I wonder how Ilya Kovalchuk feels about signing with LA and watching this unfold.

Not sure how he feels, but I'm grinning ear to ear. **** the King's.

 

[EpicDing]

It makes sense as long as we're getting proper value for him, but I'm extremely skeptical GMs around the league value Hayes appropriately. Not a big name, doesn't look overly flashy on the ice, no eye popping boxcar stats. Knowing the GMs in this league the pedigree and not being a name is the big one though.

I feel like the return on him would be very underwhelming. I don't want to trade a guy who's still getting better and probably one of the two 2 or 3 players on the team at this point JUST to trade him. I get the impression that Hayes is going to be a case that has more value to the Rangers than he does in a trade. If there's no proper value offer out there then I think we should keep him.

That's all fair yeah. I think I would trust Gorton to get a good return, he hasn't outright lost a trade yet as GM (up for debate of course but imo). A first + B prospect works for me personally. Think like 1st + Lemieux from Winnipeg or something.

 

[GAGLine]

Kings just dealt Pearson for a vet with one year left on his deal. The 4th period saying they may be exploring for the market for Toffoli as well. Sounds crazy but I wonder if they'd consider Zucc. They'd change their culture considerably, net similar offense, and clear $8+ mil in total for next year to make a run at Panarin.

That's not a deal I'd be interested in making, if I'm the Rangers. His numbers are close to Zucc and he's younger, but he has 1 year left on his contract after this and he'll be 28 when it's up. If he were already a Ranger, we'd be talking about trading him rather than acquiring him. That's not the type of deal we should be looking for IMO. If we are doing a 1 for 1, I'd rather target a younger guy who hasn't broken out yet.

 

[Tawnos]

This is far from a "have to move him, take whatever you can get" scenario than a lot of people on here think it is. It's a somewhat unique situation because not a lot of players get moved in this situation. 26, still in his prime, getting better. The only reason to trade him is to open space for the kids, players like this are usually not available.

Disagree. The Rangers are going to develop a player as good as Hayes. It's nearly guaranteed. You move him so you have a chance to draft and develop a player who is better than him. You don't have that chance if you keep him.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

The timing for the Kings to be blowing it up is very strange. A lot of their big contributors are injured. Pearson and Toffoli could still be part of a resurgence next season when everyone is healthy. I understand Rob Blake wanting a culture change, but for him to hit the panic button at this stage would be very strange. You trade players like Kyle Clifford in a culture change.

I wonder how Ilya Kovalchuk feels about signing with LA and watching this unfold.

My concern turns to what if L.A. can unload enough money to be in on Panarin?

 

[NYR Viper]

My concern turns to what if L.A. can unload enough money to be in on Panarin?

Let them be. If they want to add ANOTHER huge contract, it's a death nail.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Back to our guys.

The Rangers are on a hot streak that isn't going to last. This is the best hockey they're going to play all year. Same blueprint as last year. The schedule gets murderous at the turn of the new year. January and February will pass. Hayes and Zuccarello will be dealt for futures. Maybe another surprise core piece traded in a hockey or futures trade. They're still going to finish towards the cellar.

I saw an article on The Athletic the other day about a writer that updates each team's point projections on a daily basis. He still has the Rangers finishing 4th worst in the league even at 9-7-2 today. Still a good chance to move up into the top 3. Even if the Rangers fall out of Hughes/Kakko territory, one of Cozens or Dach will likely be available whether they pick 4th or 5th overall. There are always surprises at the draft. No one expected Florida to pick Barkov 2nd overall in 2013. Drouin hasn't lived up to the player he was supposed to be. Florida looks smart in taking Barkov over Drouin. There were audible gasps in the Prudential Center when that happened.

Philip Broberg has been rising meteorically in the early part of the season. Byram has been playing really well. There may be a team ahead of the Rangers that may be desperate for defense, dropping everyone else down. The Rangers themselves may really like Bryam too. They beefed up their WHL scouting starting this year and have seen him play plenty scouting Ty Ronning last year.

The Rangers are still going to get a great player in the top 10 of the draft. Not the franchise altering talent they need like a Hughes or Kakko, but another great core piece. Gorton is trying to build a team with great depth up and down the lineup in which each player has a clear and designated role. Similar to the 2013-14 Rangers and 2014-15 Rangers that made deep runs. Dach, Cozens, Podzolkin, Byram, or Boldy would make great additions to the existing core of the team.

The Rangers will almost certainly have another 1st rounder. Use that pick to draft a shoot first winger like Kaliyev or Caufield. Keep backfilling the defensive pipeline in the 2nd and 3rd rounds where you have a better chance of striking gold.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Disagree. The Rangers are going to develop a player as good as Hayes. It's nearly guaranteed. You move him so you have a chance to draft and develop a player who is better than him. You don't have that chance if you keep him.

I guess that's where the disconnect occurs because I don't think it's anywhere near a guarantee that any pick/prospect would develop to be as good as Hayes.

 

[GAGLine]

My concern turns to what if L.A. can unload enough money to be in on Panarin?

So what if they do? We need to stop betting all our chips on one player. If he signs somewhere else, so be it.

Why would he sign there anyway? If they get Panarin, they will still be old and slow and they will still suck.

 

[Trxjw]

That's not a deal I'd be interested in making, if I'm the Rangers. His numbers are close to Zucc and he's younger, but he has 1 year left on his contract after this and he'll be 28 when it's up. If he were already a Ranger, we'd be talking about trading him rather than acquiring him. That's not the type of deal we should be looking for IMO. If we are doing a 1 for 1, I'd rather target a younger guy who hasn't broken out yet.

I understand what you are saying and while I didn't state it in my post I was thinking about what he could be worth as a flip at 50% retained. Especially to a team who LA probably won't deal him to themselves.

I'd prefer Sprong and a pick or similar but trying on a different hat here.

 

[NYR Viper]

I guess that's where the disconnect occurs because I don't think it's anywhere near a guarantee that any pick/prospect would develop to be as good as Hayes.

It's not a guarantee but giving Hayes a $6m contract, at this stage in the teams retool, would be a bad idea when guys like Chytil, Howden and Andersson can do a similar job now or in the near future for far less.