Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XIV

[NikC]

I believe that there are some people here who are perfectly happy just making the playoffs every year and never winning anything.

I totally agree. The best NYR team we had in the last decade still wasn't enough to beat the kings...

You can't reason with the emotional sports fan. What I'm hoping is, is that Gorton doesn't seek to appease lundquvist or this new coaches desire to be "competitive " through the rebuild by making moves to improve this current squad and or not trading people.

They need STUD player (s).

 

[Tawnos]

Honestly, if the choice was between having a team that made the playoffs nearly every single year for a couple of decades, with the occasional period of several years with deep runs, but never won the Cup and a team that goes into the basement, has a 5 year window in which they win the Cup twice and then go back to the basement, I'd choose the playoff team. A lot of this comes from there being just so many teams now.. there are just going to be teams that never win.

That's just me, and I respect the people who believe in Cup or bust.

 

[SA16]

You can always apply the math. This is a very simple scenario. It's a best 4 of 7 where the odds slightly differ in each game based on who is home. Hockey is not somehow out of the realm of mathematics. Also Vegas was a significant favorite in the final last year anyway ~60%. I am pretty sure the people who make the odds who have tens/hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars on the outcome of the series are more accurate than your opinion on who should be favored.

 

[DutchShamrock]

I totally agree. The best NYR team we had in the last decade still wasn't enough to beat the kings...

You can't reason with the emotional sports fan. What I'm hoping is, is that Gorton doesn't seek to appease lundquvist or this new coaches desire to be "competitive " through the rebuild by making moves to improve this current squad and or not trading people.

They need STUD player (s).

I see no reason to worry about Lundqvist. The best players have been young guys. Gorton added a couple of fillers in the off season. Quinn is improving the play of our youth and trade chips with accountability and coaching. None of that is about appeasing Lundqvist.

The same people lamenting the wins would be the first to point out how bad the future core is playing if we were losing nightly. Just take some satisfaction if the improved youth.

 

[Tawnos]

You can always apply the math. This is a very simple scenario. Also Vegas was a significant favorite in the final last year anyway ~60%. I am pretty sure the people who make the odds who have tens/hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars on the outcome of the series are more accurate than your opinion on who should be favored.

This right here is why the analytics community is looked at with suspicion. You can always apply the math, but you can't always apply generic math to individual situations. It's the same thing as saying "9th overall has X probability of becoming a solid NHL player." That X probability has no bearing at all on whether or not Kravtsov will be a solid NHL player.

Even if we were to move Vegas into the "debatable" category, my point still stands. There are teams that make it there who you know before the series starts aren't going to win, barring a miracle (something like Vanbiesbrouck pitching 4 shutouts against the Avalanche in 1996). Although, I don't know how anyone could look at the VGK roster and the Caps roster and put better odds on VGK. It's like the Caps were underestimated because of their history.

 

[Ola]

RB is 100% right on this. The only route to a SC winning team is having elite or near elite talent in your top 5 along with a supporting cast of talent.

No short cuts. Stay the course for how ever long it takes

Short cuts? What am I missing — when have we opted to NOT get a top pick?

That is the problem all along. I have posted the same thing every once in a while for almost a decade, you need to play out a cycle and then when you really hit rock bottom and crash you can rebuild.

We did however take a big short cut when we started the rebuild with a PO team. A decade from now I don’t doubt it would have been better to trade away the 18-20 first round picks and despeartly try to win the cup, and then crash extremely hard and get those top picks when we have nothing.

This is one problem with NY and this team, there is always kind of a belief that we are entitled to everything. We are rebuilding, we are tanking. We will start dump the few vets we have left during the season. Oh what a surprise — it might not still get us that top pick. Why? We took a short cut and started the rebuild too early.

Trade Ziba, Kreider and Hayes — we might still be better than a few nightmare organizations....

 

[LeetchisGod]

Honestly, if the choice was between having a team that made the playoffs nearly every single year for a couple of decades, with the occasional period of several years with deep runs, but never won the Cup and a team that goes into the basement, has a 5 year window in which they win the Cup twice and then go back to the basement, I'd choose the playoff team. A lot of this comes from there being just so many teams now.. there are just going to be teams that never win.

That's just me, and I respect the people who believe in Cup or bust.

And that is your prerogative. I'm sure there are others who feel the same way.

 

[Tawnos]

And that is your perogative. I'm sure there are others who feel the same way.

Yes. There's obviously a lot of passion involved, but it's still ultimately just entertainment.

 

[nyr__1994]

You can always apply the math. This is a very simple scenario. It's a best 4 of 7 where the odds slightly differ in each game based on who is home. Hockey is not somehow out of the realm of mathematics. Also Vegas was a significant favorite in the final last year anyway ~60%. I am pretty sure the people who make the odds who have tens/hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars on the outcome of the series are more accurate than your opinion on who should be favored.

You do realize that betting lines are based partly on public perception. The goal on any sports book is to get exactly 50% of the money bet on each side of the outcome. The popularity of any sports team has an affect on where the line is set...

 

[Edge]

I think I would be more concerned about the wins if the kids were merely passengers.

Frankly, I feel like they've been a driving force --- so that's a very good thing.

With that said, I'd still vote to move Hayes and Zucc because we'll need the assets over the long-haul.

My mindset basically comes down to the fact that the Rangers can't really "make" themselves lose --- specially if the kids are the driving force behind wins. I don't fear them over-achieving on the backs of younger talent.

The one thing I do want to avoid, is drifting from moving certain assets and instead focusing on a playoff push if this team happens to be close. So I'm not really interested in trading assets for short-term moves, or hanging on to talents on expiring contracts who can net us assets we'll need over the long-haul.

So, in a nutshell --- let the kids play their hearts and the chips will fall where they may. But let's not use that as an excuse to not move the vets we need to.

 

[JohnC]

We’ve been winning games despite playing like ass.

If the latter continues, the former will cease.

Calm yo self.

You’re an idiot if you think this team isn’t going to shootout win it’s way to the playoffs in the next 65 games tbh.

 

[East Coast Bias]

I have absolutely no problem moving hayes and zucc, and support it.

But I’m not gonna meltdown every day they’re not traded bc Friedman said teams are interested and Gorton hasn’t don’t it yet. Who knows what’s being offered - teams may be lowballing.

Trading hayes/Zucc for 50% of the potential TDL return bc you want the team to be bad ASAP seems really stupid.

 

[bobbop]

There's a lot that goes into winning the Stanley Cup and not all of it is something that you control. The 2012 Kings made the playoffs as an eighth seed. Who had them as the favorite in their pool? In 2014 the Rangers probably would have had a much easier road if the Blackhawks beat the Kings (OT in 7th game) Matchups are so crucial in a seven game series.

The very best you can hope for is a team that gives you a chance to win the Stanley Cup every year. History is littered with prohibitive favorites and Presidents Trophy winners who fell short. The 2012-15 Rangers gave you a chance every year. Its not just the Ranger fans who suffer with almost dynasties. The 2009 Sharks and the 2011 Canucks are a couple that come to mind.

 

[Avery16]

Are we really going to play McLeod for four weeks

 

[NYR Viper]

So I thought this was interesting:

According to the Reddit translation, which is in line with the other translations, Pakarinen says the following of the Oilers coaching staff: “They don’t say anything or talk to you about why you’re not playing. At least the Oilers never did. That’s what annoyed me the most… Coach never gives you a reason or reasons. You have to figure it out why you’re sitting in the pressbox by yourself. Also in general the coach and GM talked to us very little. It’s almost like they have some top secret information. I think it’s unfathomable… Communication should be more open, like it is in Europe. Here it goes like it should. In the NHL it feels like the coach is one great ego. Of course the coach will talk to the players about random things, but never about anything personal or things related to your own game.”

Former Edmonton Oilers player Iiro Pakarinen complains of lack of communication from coaches


This article is in reference to Iiro Pakarinen who played in Edmonton the last few years. It sounds eerily similar to some of the complaints from Buchnevich in regards to AV over the last couple of years. I put this out there as I think it likely relates to Puljujaarvi and his ups and downs on that team. He's a young player who didn't speak a ton of english and the lack of communication in general may be playing with his head. I would still like to bring him in to see if they can re-cultivate that talent. He may never be the ppg winger he was touted to be at the time of his draft but a 60 point 2-way winger with size and speed seems to be within reach.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

This right here is why the analytics community is looked at with suspicion. You can always apply the math, but you can't always apply generic math to individual situations. It's the same thing as saying "9th overall has X probability of becoming a solid NHL player." That X probability has no bearing at all on whether or not Kravtsov will be a solid NHL player.

Even if we were to move Vegas into the "debatable" category, my point still stands. There are teams that make it there who you know before the series starts aren't going to win, barring a miracle (something like Vanbiesbrouck pitching 4 shutouts against the Avalanche in 1996). Although, I don't know how anyone could look at the VGK roster and the Caps roster and put better odds on VGK. It's like the Caps were underestimated because of their history.

I would say Vegas was the favorite because they essentially steamrolled their way to the finals, while the caps had some much closer calls

 

[mrhockey193195]

Honestly, if the choice was between having a team that made the playoffs nearly every single year for a couple of decades, with the occasional period of several years with deep runs, but never won the Cup and a team that goes into the basement, has a 5 year window in which they win the Cup twice and then go back to the basement, I'd choose the playoff team. A lot of this comes from there being just so many teams now.. there are just going to be teams that never win.

That's just me, and I respect the people who believe in Cup or bust.

Agree 100%. The last 12 or 13 years of Rangers hockey has been so goddamn enjoyable and has been filled with some of my greatest memories as a hockey fan. And it's not like we didn't have a chance to win it all (especially had a couple events gone a slightly different way...cough Stralman cough).

 

[Savant]

What level of Shakespearean tragedy is it that Quick and Crawford were two goalies that won Cups during the Rangers window, and now the Kings and Blackhawks will probably have better draft positioning than the Ramgers because those goalies broke down and Henrik is not only still standing, but playing great hockey to keep the Rangers out of the basement.

 

[Tawnos]

I would say Vegas was the favorite because they essentially steamrolled their way to the finals, while the caps had some much closer calls

Right. The thing is, momentum doesn't really transfer to the SCF, because both teams are feeling it whether they swept the conference finals or went to game 7 double OT. It washes out, leaving the most important thing being which team is the better team.

 

[kovazub94]

I would say Vegas was the favorite because they essentially steamrolled their way to the finals, while the caps had some much closer calls

Tougher road to the SCF can break a team or make it stronger (the proverbial "what doesn't kill you"). In case of Caps the tougher road maybe was presumed to break them because of the team's history of failures.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

What level of Shakespearean tragedy is it that Quick and Crawford were two goalies that won Cups during the Rangers window, and now the Kings and Blackhawks will probably have better draft positioning than the Ramgers because those goalies broke down and Henrik is not only still standing, but playing great hockey to keep the Rangers out of the basement.

Same thing is happening in Montreal... I saw an article that called Price and Lundqvist the last of the Franchise goalies.

The last of the franchise goalies and how that burden can...

 

[Avery16]

Are we really going to play McLeod for four weeks

Who would we call up? Holland...Fogarty...Nieves...Gettinger...Meskanen...Lindqvist

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Who would we call up? Holland...Fogarty...Nieves...Gettinger...Meskanen...Lindqvist

Literally any of those guys except Holland would be SIGNIFICANTLY better options. And for the members of our fanbase that think there needs to be a goon on every team, then make it Fogarty or Gettinger because they are big boys that can hold their own and take care of linemates. Both Foges and Getts have earned a call-up with their play of late. Mcleod has earned a retirement party at Dave n Busters.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

So I thought this was interesting:




Former Edmonton Oilers player Iiro Pakarinen complains of lack of communication from coaches


This article is in reference to Iiro Pakarinen who played in Edmonton the last few years. It sounds eerily similar to some of the complaints from Buchnevich in regards to AV over the last couple of years. I put this out there as I think it likely relates to Puljujaarvi and his ups and downs on that team. He's a young player who didn't speak a ton of english and the lack of communication in general may be playing with his head. I would still like to bring him in to see if they can re-cultivate that talent. He may never be the ppg winger he was touted to be at the time of his draft but a 60 point 2-way winger with size and speed seems to be within reach.

I cant see Edmonton trading him this early without recouping a 1st rounder.

 

[SA16]

You do realize that betting lines are based partly on public perception. The goal on any sports book is to get exactly 50% of the money bet on each side of the outcome. The popularity of any sports team has an affect on where the line is set...

That’s largely a fallacy and would lead to them getting destroyed by the pros. They don’t care about getting 50% on each side. That would lower their profitability. They offer hundreds of bets a day getting one particular one 50/50 makes no difference. They’re in it for the long run and have far and away a large enough bank roll to handle the variance.

Follow David Payne Purdum on twitter for one example. Every day he’s posting stuff like “90% of the money at Caesars is on the Cowboys the book really wants the cowboys to lose this one”

 

[Webster]

I have absolutely no problem moving hayes and zucc, and support it.

But I’m not gonna meltdown every day they’re not traded bc Friedman said teams are interested and Gorton hasn’t don’t it yet. Who knows what’s being offered - teams may be lowballing.

Trading hayes/Zucc for 50% of the potential TDL return bc you want the team to be bad ASAP seems really stupid.

A Zucc/Hayes trade looks less and less likely the more the Rangers get involved in the playoff race.

 

[Savant]

Same thing is happening in Montreal... I saw an article that called Price and Lundqvist the last of the Franchise goalies.

The last of the franchise goalies and how that burden can...

Lundqvist career is so much better than Price's

 

[kovazub94]

Literally any of those guys except Holland would be SIGNIFICANTLY better options. And for the members of our fanbase that think there needs to be a goon on every team, then make it Fogarty or Gettinger because they are big boys that can hold their own and take care of linemates. Both Foges and Getts have earned a call-up with their play of late. Mcleod has earned a retirement party at Dave n Busters.

Literally, not, at least not until they prove otherwise.

Lettieri - who seemed the most ready compared to these options is failing miserably in this 4W role. He’s been a much bigger drag on Chytil’s performance than McLeod.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Literally, not, at least not until they prove otherwise.

Lettieri - who seemed the most ready compared to these options is failing miserably in this 4W role. He’s been a much bigger drag on Chytil’s performance than McLeod.

What you're saying is that Lettieri has been worse than Mcleod so if you're calling someone up to bench someone its Lettieri being benched. What I'm saying is they are both absolute garbage and should be replace by two of the aforementioned call-up candidates. McLeod has no place in the NHL anymore, and Lettieri has underperformed and deserves an AHL stint.

 

[brians1128]

A Zucc/Hayes trade looks less and less likely the more the Rangers get involved in the playoff race.

I don't think so, the Rangers committed to the rebuild last year not being far out of a playoff position. It also is not uncommon for potential playoff teams to sell off expiring contracts if they have no intention of resigning them. Example being St. Louis who traded Shattenkirk to Washington and still made it to the second round of the playoffs. I think Zucc will be a deadline deal. I would like to see Hayes traded sooner rather than later, not because of the talk around blocking a spot for the young kids but rather because I can see a team seeing Hayes as a long-term solution for their team with intent to extend and could potentially up their offer.

 

[DutchShamrock]

So I thought this was interesting:




Former Edmonton Oilers player Iiro Pakarinen complains of lack of communication from coaches


This article is in reference to Iiro Pakarinen who played in Edmonton the last few years. It sounds eerily similar to some of the complaints from Buchnevich in regards to AV over the last couple of years. I put this out there as I think it likely relates to Puljujaarvi and his ups and downs on that team. He's a young player who didn't speak a ton of english and the lack of communication in general may be playing with his head. I would still like to bring him in to see if they can re-cultivate that talent. He may never be the ppg winger he was touted to be at the time of his draft but a 60 point 2-way winger with size and speed seems to be within reach.

I wonder if some of these coaches have trouble looking a guy in the eye and telling them they are sitting because they don't do their profession well enough. That's a hard thing to do. Maybe its ego, but maybe it's just some of these coaches not having the stones to have difficult conversations.

Tortorella may lack finesse but he is not shy and he does not avoid uncomfortable conversations. It may have been a mistake to listen to the players when he got canned.

 

[Mikos87]

A few months ago I was chatting with someone from a cup winning organization.

Asked him if he thought they were going to win when they won.

The answer was that there was a collective belief with their group because of the goaltending.

Asked him why that was, the response was simple, their guy didnt give up bad goals often. All that team had to do was control where the shots we're coming from and protect leads if they scored early.

My question was then when did you know? The answer was when they started winning games that the team played with structure. It simplified who was doing what and where.

For their group it made the defensive side of the game very predictable. If they scored 3, they we're going to win. 4 was a lock. 2 was good enough.

It's a different game now then it was then, but the core principals don't change.

Asked him if they could win the way they did back then, and the answer is no. Too much speed in the league now where that structure can be broken down.