Roster Building Thread - Part XI (Off-season edition)

[Fitzy]

Ever since I’ve been posting here for 15 years posters have obsessed over the “correct model” to win a championship like it’s a strongest hot glue spaghetti bridge competition.

Don’t pay for a goalie
Draft top 3 at least twice
Home grown 1C

It isn’t that reductive. It never has been. The better a team you have the better the odds of winning a Stanley cup. There’s no formula.

Everyone likes to give their best ex post facto rationalization for why we don’t win a given cup any given postseason. It’s unfalsifiable and pretentious.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I had a dream last night, more like a nightmare. That we would fumble Othmann’s development over the usual organization nepotism. When will it end

Who’s the next available over the hill slow scrub who has zero skill that we can sign and play way too much in lieu of a youngster ?

 

[Profet]

Ever since I’ve been posting here for 15 years posters have obsessed over the “correct model” to win a championship like it’s a strongest hot glue spaghetti bridge competition.

Don’t pay for a goalie
Draft top 3 at least twice
Home grown 1C

It isn’t that reductive. It never has been. The better a team you have the better the odds of winning a Stanley cup. There’s no formula.

Everyone likes to give their best ex post facto rationalization for why we don’t win a given cup any given postseason. It’s unfalsifiable and pretentious.

Sure...

But you probably need at least a couple of those to be true.

Florida: 2/3 - Barkov (1C), Barkov(#2OA) & Ekblad(#1OA)
Vegas exception as they still had expansion team cap maneuverability
Colorado: 3/3
Tampa Bay: 2/3
... etc etc...

 

[Fitzy]

Sure...

But you probably need at least a couple of those to be true.

Florida: 2/3 - Barkov (1C), Barkov(#2OA) & Ekblad(#1OA)
Vegas exception as they still had expansion team cap maneuverability
Colorado: 3/3
Tampa Bay: 2/3
... etc etc...

They all help, with the exception of a cheap goalie which I am ambivalent about.

But none of them are “necessary” or “sufficient” conditions. You can win with none. You can lose with all three.

 

[Profet]

They all help, with the exception of a cheap goalie which I am ambivalent about.

But none of them are “necessary” or “sufficient” conditions. You can win with none. You can lose with all three.

Other than Vegas which had the expansion team "bonus" of not having long term cap issues... How far do you have to go back to find a team that doesn't have 2 of 3?

 

[Fitzy]

Other than Vegas which had the expansion team "bonus" of not having long term cap issues... How far do you have to go back to find a team that doesn't have 2 of 3?

I’d say the Blues.

But my way of conceptualizing it is like a point system. Those fantasy hockey leagues where instead of a draft you have a dollar amount you spend on each player. A top prime center is worth a lot. But in the right circumstances you can build, in my opinion, a cup competing roster without one. Or another.

There is a universe where the mid 2010’s predators win a cup around a solid defense, coaching, and goaltending. The odds are better any given season that a top team comes in and doesn’t win than that they do. I’m just tired of the same voices coming in with “I told you so this team was never good enough” each offseason like they’ve got some amazing insight or clairvoyance instead of just hedging their bets on the pretty good odds that we don’t win 4 straight playoff series that year.

And they’re always moving the goalposts too. In 2014 it was that we didn’t have a true 1C and top PP. Now it’s because we don’t have depth. Pick a narrative and stick with it

 

[Takeahnase]

It’s been over a month and still a little bitter…I hope whatever Rempe is learning from Larocque is applied to these Florida jackasses next season.

Although it was funny when Kreids threw Tkachuk’s pacifier into the crowd we really needed him to slap Tkachuk around with it instead.



What a bunch of jerks.

 

[TGWL]

For Zibanejad you can break it down to 2 different areas of disappointment.
1. 5 on 5 disappointment
2. Lack of goals scored.
-He took nearly 30 less shots on the powerplay last season, yet his missed shots are nearly identical. That's a problem and probably why he didn't break the 30 goal mark.

 

[eco's bones]

I had a dream last night, more like a nightmare. That we would fumble Othmann’s development over the usual organization nepotism. When will it end

When you wake up?

Look--Othmann has a shot at making the team next year. It's not guaranteed and shouldn't be either. FWIW he had more power play points in Hartford last year than even strength points and he's not ready at all to beat out our more productive forwards for top 6 ice time. If he does make it a lot will depend on his being able to play a responsible game and also to chip in goals/assists and I don't expect he'll get a lot of power play time. As with any player Othmann will play a major part in his own development by being coachable and working to make stronger areas he's weaker at .

 

[Boris Zubov]

Actual>Expected. The analytics revolution over the last 10-15 years has convinced people that what "should" have happened is more relevant than what did.

More like, the "Why Kakko is still an NHL player" stat.

 

[TominNC]

When you wake up?

Look--Othmann has a shot at making the team next year. It's not guaranteed and shouldn't be either. FWIW he had more power play points in Hartford last year than even strength points and he's not ready at all to beat out our more productive forwards for top 6 ice time. If he does make it a lot will depend on his being able to play a responsible game and also to chip in goals/assists and I don't expect he'll get a lot of power play time. As with any player Othmann will play a major part in his own development by being coachable and working to make stronger areas he's weaker at .

And given that, I’ll place a high wager that if he’s having a decent year, a certain segment of our fan base will be demanding more PP time for him so he’s not ruined. Even if our PP is top 5 in the league.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

You know what combo actually kind of cooked last year?

Kreider-Zibanejad-Panarin.

With Smith and Trocheck having positive history, it may not be a bad idea to at least try the above and see what happens over a longer stretch of games.

At the very least, if Panarin and Zibanejad decide to go ghost mode in the playoffs they'll be doing nothing together.

 

[pld459666]

He'll create chances by getting in on the forecheck more. Defenseman handled the puck like a grenade everytime he was on the ice

I'd like for the 4th line to have the puck more in the offensive zone.

 

[JohnC]

For Zibanejad you can break it down to 2 different areas of disappointment.
1. 5 on 5 disappointment
2. Lack of goals scored.
-He took nearly 30 less shots on the powerplay last season, yet his missed shots are nearly identical. That's a problem and probably why he didn't break the 30 goal mark.

The last time I remember an obvious star player on this team looking so visibly useless and unlike themselves was Brad Richards in the 2013 season.

 

[RangerBoy]

Crouse has been a full time NHLer for a bit.

But you're completely overlooking their long term success with professional scouting.

That Tkachuk trade was amazing as well as others. Their professional scouts seem to have a good grasp of when to acquire players, and when to move on from them.

Bennett, Reinhart, Tkachuk.

Home run trades.

When was the last time our pro scouts hit a homerun?

Strome for Spooner (who they acquired for Rick Nash... which was a fail)?

Verhaeghe too.

 

[bhamill]

That has to do with p-values and specific data sets not literally everything in the world. There is no way of knowing if a 15% change in ice time has any relevance at all. And in this case it's not only about the percentage of ice time but about the raw number. Are you going to tell me in terms of how tired and worn out a player gets is the same for Rempe going from 5 minutes to 5.75 minutes as it would be for MacKinnon going from 23 minutes to 26.5 minutes? Both are 15% increases.

Again, you are conflating two different points.
First point: Minutes played is in fact a data set. And lowering it by 15% is in fact significant. That’s not opinion, that’s fact.
Second: I said it MAY be beneficial to the older guys come playoffs. “May” because there is no way to factually demonstrate it. But common sense says that taking significant load off of guys who are played heavily sure can’t hurt toward the end of a long season and post season. Trying to muddy the waters with comparing a 22 year player who plays very little, not enough to wear him out, doesn’t change that.

 

[majordomo]

Who’s the next available over the hill slow scrub who has zero skill that we can sign and play way too much in lieu of a youngster ?

Ryan Suter

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Ryan Suter

Sleepy Chris already missed the boat on him , I think he signed with St Louie

 

[RangerBoy]

Probably will have many who disagree but IMO what we are going through is the chickens coming home to roost on “accelerating the rebuild.” Summer of 2019, Panarin and Trouba. Panarin individually is still a great signing but in the context of where the org was I questioned it at the time and still do. Hard to deny the 2 ECF runs but was never quite enough.

That's ancient history. How do the Rangers move forward? They need help on D. They need another winger unless one their young guys take big steps this season. They probably need another center. Chytil's health is an issue. How do the Rangers fill those needs? They don't have much to trade. Money is tight. They really need to upgrade the D and they have no one in their system. The Rangers didn't do much this summer. However, the other teams have gotten worse. Carolina has lost so many players. Necas could still go in a trade. The Devils are the media darlings. The Islanders are the same team. The Flyers are the same team. Pittsburgh sticks. The teams in the Atlantic haven't gotten better. Boston signed both Lindholm and Zadorov. Are they contenders? Florida? Tsmpa? Toronto? No. Detroit. No.

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

 

[and 99 others]

Crouse has been a full time NHLer for a bit.

But you're completely overlooking their long term success with professional scouting.

That Tkachuk trade was amazing as well as others. Their professional scouts seem to have a good grasp of when to acquire players, and when to move on from them.

Bennett, Reinhart, Tkachuk.

Home run trades.

When was the last time our pro scouts hit a homerun?

Strome for Spooner (who they acquired for Rick Nash... which was a fail)?

Verhaeghe too.

Gustav Forsling too (for free)

edit: just looked at their professional scouts and they all joined as professional scouts AFTER the forsling signing. So it's likely a lot of the guys who made the decisions to bring all of those guys in are gone already / somewhere else

edit to the edit: The Panthers Director of Professional Scouting at the time of the Forsling signing was Al Tuer who is a professional scout for... the New York Rangers

 

[SA16]

Gustav Forsling too (for free)

edit: just looked at their professional scouts and they all joined as professional scouts AFTER the forsling signing. So it's likely a lot of the guys who made the decisions to bring all of those guys in are gone already / somewhere else

edit to the edit: The Panthers Director of Professional Scouting at the time of the Forsling signing was Al Tuer who is a professional scout for... the New York Rangers

The vast majority of this stuff is just luck and then gets credited to people after the fact when it works. And funnily enough, often gets credited to the wrong people as you just showed with Forsling.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

You know what combo actually kind of cooked last year?

Kreider-Zibanejad-Panarin.

With Smith and Trocheck having positive history, it may not be a bad idea to at least try the above and see what happens over a longer stretch of games.

At the very least, if Panarin and Zibanejad decide to go ghost mode in the playoffs they'll be doing nothing together.

Imo, and been saying it for a while, all we need to do is swap Trochek and Zibanejad and I think that solves the issue. I think a line of Kreider Trochek and Kakko would be a hard line to deal with in your end.

Panarin Zibanejad Lafreniere
Kreider Trochek Kakko
Berard Chytil Smith
Cuylle Carrick Vesey/Edstrom/Rempe

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

View attachment 894250
View attachment 894249
View attachment 894248

Slow down there egghead

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

Gustav Forsling too (for free)

edit: just looked at their professional scouts and they all joined as professional scouts AFTER the forsling signing. So it's likely a lot of the guys who made the decisions to bring all of those guys in are gone already / somewhere else

edit to the edit: The Panthers Director of Professional Scouting at the time of the Forsling signing was Al Tuer who is a professional scout for... the New York Rangers

Hasn’t Zito been there for all of it though? Maybe he thought the scouts were cheeks and got rid of them. It’s hard to argue with everything he’s done, he’s revamped the entire team even after good seasons. Huberdeau trade was like if NYR traded Mika after 2019-20. They wouldn’t have the balls or brain to do that in a million years. Also changed out half their defense this year. NYR won’t swap out a single guy lmao

It’s just bad luck when the rangers claimed Jake Leschyshyn and let Tolvanen go