Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VIII: Dilly Dilly - Lets Tank!

[Fvital92]

Hayes has long-term plans with Rangers despite one-year contact



I dunno. This makes sense on the surface, but if they couldn’t come to an agreement this summer, I have little faith they’ll come to one next summer when he’s a year older, will want more money, and the salary cap will go up

Will be interested to see if they actually hold up to what they told Hayes about not trading him.

I don’t buy it for a second.

If Hayes has an amazing year and Zibanejad gets injuried for a long time again I can see us trading Mika and keeping Hayes.

 

[Fvital92]

I am not sure how the timing adds up for that prediction if we are building a team through the drafts??

We need:
1LW-1C-1RW
2LW-2C-2RW
3LW-3C-3RW
4LW-4C-4RW
1LD-1RD
2LD-2RD
3LD-3RD

After three years Kreider will be over 30. I wouldn’t count on an over 30 PF being a big factor. Zucc is of course more or less done. Maybe a smaller role. Hayes is gone this spring. I would be surprised if Names or Spooner are here after three more years. Miller would have been 28 but Gorts trades him.

Can we slot in one vet name upfront —
1. Zibanejad? 29-30 y/o.

The other 11 have to be Buch, Vesey, Lias, Chytil, Howden, Kravtsov and co. Meskanen and the likes.

In terms of age it will be:
2. Vesey 26 y/o
3. Buch 25 y/o
4. Howden 24 y/o
5. Lias 23 y/o
6. Chytil 22 y/o
7. Kravtsov
8. 2020 picks 20 y/o
9. 2021 picks 19 y/o

Conclusion forwards: I am an optimistic guy but things have to play out — tremendously — well if that group will core a 4 line deep P.O. contender. If we after three more years, going into the 2021/22 season — we have to be really fortunate if we have one forward from the 20-21 drafts on the roster. It’s very far from a guarantee that all guys listed 1-7 actually makes it and/or is still in NY. Let’s be honest here, it’s only 1 of all those guys who actually have delivered somewhat so far in the NHL. Buch and Vesey finished the year as 4th lineers... There is a transaction risk here.

But sure, I can also see the framework for a good top 6-9 among those names. Let’s be positive and say that two of guys like Meskanen and the likes also make it — that roster would ‘only’ have 4-5 major holes on it.

And don’t expect to get much help from any free agent market at that time. Prices will be insane and all top guys are locked up long term. Close to 40 guys like Cory Perry and Ryan Getzlaf will be available, but players a notch above that will be rare...

————————
On the backend, Skjei is of course as much of a lock as a player can be in this context. Realistically he is 2LD. None of the other vets will be here after 3 more years of rebuilding.

Counting on a realistic but optimistic bust rate we should have something like:
1. Skjei
2. TDA/Pionk
3. Hajak/Miller
4. Keane/Lundqvist/Lindgren/Lundkvist (remember these kids are still ‘young’ in after three more years. Skjei was 23 last season. These guys will average what like 21-22 at this time).

Picks made in the coming drafts is of course too young to help.

Who will lead the blueline?

Who will we have in the net?

I just don’t get it to add up.

Panarin?-First pick in 2019 draft- Kreider
Chytil-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
3LW-Andersson- Howden
Fast-4C-4RW
1LD-Shattenkirk
Skjei-2RD
One of Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov-Pionk.

This could be our 2019 line up, if our prospects are as good as we think, we could have a nice year in 19/20 and a competitive team in 2020, than it would be a matter of finding a top pair D in trades.

If everything goes right we can stop sucking this year.

 

[NYRKING30]

We all want Hughes. Landing in the top 5 should be able to get us a potential legit 1st line center with all the talent in the upcoming draft. Im not sure how many extra 1st round picks we can add by the TDL or on draft day as it seems more and more likely that GM's don't want to trade 1st round picks at the deadline. If we can get an extra 1, I would be more than thrilled.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Gorton ain't letting Hayes walk for free.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

We all want Hughes. Landing in the top 5 should be able to get us a potential legit 1st line center with all the talent in the upcoming draft. Im not sure how many extra 1st round picks we can add by the TDL or on draft day as it seems more and more likely that GM's don't want to trade 1st round picks at the deadline. If we can get an extra 1, I would be more than thrilled.

We just had a deadline where we acquired 2, potentially 3 of them.

They may say this but once they get closer to the playoffs and get a sniff at winning it all (or even the possibility of just making it in) this changes in almost an instant.

Top 5 would be ideal as much as some don't want to hear it. There is nothing to be gained to be just good enough to not make it into the playoffs, or to be just good enough where you can't win more than a single game (Unless this happens on the backs of your young players, then its a bit of a different story.)

 

[NYRKING30]

We just had a deadline where we acquired 2, potentially 3 of them.

They may say this but once they get closer to the playoffs and get a sniff at winning it all (or even the possibility of just making it in) this changes in almost an instant.

Top 5 would be ideal as much as some don't want to hear it. There is nothing to be gained to be just good enough to not make it into the playoffs, or to be just good enough where you can't win more than a single game (Unless this happens on the backs of your young players, then its a bit of a different story.)

Well that's the thing, what the GM's say and do are entirely different things. I always think the true contending cup teams, those GM's won't hesitate for s second. Everybody else I wonder how they approach it going forward.

Spot on for your second point. Im perfectly happy with landing in the top 5 this year as there are multiple 1st line centers to anchor this franchise for years and years to come. I think the same way as you do in regard to if your not gonna be 8th or better in your conference, you might as well go low as you can go. This is another year where going low as possible benefits us more towards the future. Next year (2019-20) is where I wanna start to see some sort of progression from the team. We certainly are still very much in the beginning of the rebuild phase and the acquire/gather as many assets as humanely possible.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Well that's the thing, what the GM's say and do are entirely different things. I always think the true contending cup teams, those GM's won't hesitate for s second. Everybody else I wonder how they approach it going forward.

Spot on for your second point. Im perfectly happy with landing in the top 5 this year as there are multiple 1st line centers to anchor this franchise for years and years to come. I think the same way as you do in regard to if your not gonna be 8th or better in your conference, you might as well go low as you can go. This is another year where going low as possible benefits us more towards the future. Next year (2019-20) is where I wanna start to see some sort of progression from the team. We certainly are still very much in the beginning of the rebuild phase and the acquire/gather as many assets as humanely possible.

But you're not wrong, most teams on the bubble tend to operate more cautiously. 2nd round pick can be had, 1st rounders not so much unless you're moving a very significant player.

We lucked out a bit last year in the sense that we probably had the 2 most marquee names that moved in Nash and McDonagh. If we make Hayes available I'm very confident we can get a 1st+ from him (particularly if Colorado and Carolina are in it, Colorado has their own pick to move since they have Ottawa's and Carolina because they have crazy ownership and haven't made the playoffs in a decade.) I don't know that we can get one back for anyone else. Maybe from Nashville for Zuccarello should they need the help on the wing.

 

[Cag29]

We all want Hughes. Landing in the top 5 should be able to get us a potential legit 1st line center with all the talent in the upcoming draft. Im not sure how many extra 1st round picks we can add by the TDL or on draft day as it seems more and more likely that GM's don't want to trade 1st round picks at the deadline. If we can get an extra 1, I would be more than thrilled.

I want Hughes terribly and the other centers would be fine as well. But Kappo Kakko is a potentially game breaking winger as well.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

After reading that piece it sounds like Gorton wants to sign Panarin first and see how to make the money work long term with Hayes, both sides want an agreement but Gorts needs to prioritize the starpower first.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I want Hughes terribly and the other centers would be fine as well. But Kappo Kakko is a potentially game breaking winger as well.

Kakko will be a great player but you take the game breaking center over winger every time

All of Hughes/Turcotte/Newhook and even a few more have that potential

 

[Cag29]

Kakko will be a great player but you take the game breaking center over winger every time

All of Hughes/Turcotte/Newhook and even a few more have that potential

Sounds good to me.

 

[Mikos87]

Kakko will be a great player but you take the game breaking center over winger every time

All of Hughes/Turcotte/Newhook and even a few more have that potential

Will have to see how the season unfolds, but Kaapo Kaako is 3rd behind Hughes and Cozens imo.

Guy is going to be a special player.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Hayes has long-term plans with Rangers despite one-year contact



I dunno. This makes sense on the surface, but if they couldn’t come to an agreement this summer, I have little faith they’ll come to one next summer when he’s a year older, will want more money, and the salary cap will go up

Will be interested to see if they actually hold up to what they told Hayes about not trading him.

I don’t buy it for a second.

What doesn't make sense? If Hayes says "I am worth over 5 mil, Rangers are a bit skeptical and give him 1 year contract to show that he can break out from being a 40-50 point player to a 55-70 point player. So if Hayes is struggling midway through the season they maybe extend him or trade him, but if he is playing great maybe they extend him at the money he was looking for.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

If Hayes has an amazing year and Zibanejad gets injuried for a long time again I can see us trading Mika and keeping Hayes.

yes it is a good possibility, even if Zib doesn't get injured. Zibanejad is a year younger, but Hayes definitely has some advantages like size, playmaking and defensive play.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Dan Rosen interviewed Kevin Hayes: Hayes committed long term to Rangers

Seems like Gorton wants to keep Hayes long term, at least for the time being, and Hayes sounds like he wants to be here long term.

I get a vibe that he will be named Captain before the start of regular season. Boston GM, Boston coach, Boston captain.

 

[Rangers ftw]

Yea but if the Rangers sign Panarin then how can they hope to be the worst team in the league and have an 18% shot at getting the first overall pick?

They can suck this year, be the worst team, win the lottery, draft 1st overall and then sign Panarin in the summer!

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I get a vibe that he will be named Captain before the start of regular season. Boston GM, Boston coach, Boston captain.

Exactly!

And Bern has a feeling Boo Nieves will Center our 1st line.

Vibes!

 

[RangerBoy]

Why couldn't the Rangers and Hayes come to an agreement for longer than one year? The Rangers are swimming in cap space. They could have given him an extra $500k-$750k per in a longer term deal. How much is the term? NTC/NMC. Hayes isn't worth that type of contract. Nearly $6M for Hayes? I know the cap is nearly $80M but Hayes isn't worth $6M. There are so many teams saddled with bad contracts in this league. The player isn't worth the money and then their fan bases try to peddle that junk on the trade forum on this board.

The Rangers are committed to playing their young guys. Even if they struggle this season, they are up and down. That shouldn't be factor on what the Rangers do with Hayes. Young guys are supposed to struggle. Chytil is 19. Andersson is 20. There will be growing pains. Howden is 20. The Rangers need to be smart here.

 

[RangerBoy]

RB I agree with what you’re saying but, say, in 2-3 years there may not be the right UFA available to compliment the core. Sometimes you have to go get the right guy in UFA even if it’s a year early. I’m not saying that’s specifically Panarin or Karlsson, just that it’s not as black and white as just, 3 years from now, find that final piece.

If the entire team is not ready to win, why waste $10M per on one player who will be in his late 20's to mid 30's during the term of the contract? How much of a difference will Panarin make when the rest of the team isn't very good?

The Rangers haven't even started the first season of their rebuild and the fans/media want them to give crazy free agent contracts next summer. That's not a rebuild. That's dumb.

The Rangers need to build their next core group with young guys just like the other teams did. Add later.

Even Lundqvist made some comments a few days ago

"After the camp we know more where we stand, but as a team we must overpower to go to the playoffs. In order for us as a team to take the next step, the young players must take several steps. Important that they come in with a desire to move forward, forward. Take place.

The Henrik Lundqvist Blog: New Henrik Lundqvist Swedish Interview

Those young players are very young. How many of them will play in the NHL this season? Andersson and Chytil. Maybe Howden and Hajek. Some players will play in the AHL. Some players will be playing in college, Europe and in junior. It's going to take time. There aren't that many of them. The Rangers need more.

 

[Ori]

I highly doubt that Panarin will end up here @RangerBoy - he and his agent knows that we are rebuilding for the first year.

 

[haohmaru]

Why couldn't the Rangers and Hayes come to an agreement for longer than one year? The Rangers are swimming in cap space. They could have given him an extra $500k-$750k per in a longer term deal. How much is the term? NTC/NMC. Hayes isn't worth that type of contract. Nearly $6M for Hayes? I know the cap is nearly $80M but Hayes isn't worth $6M. There are so many teams saddled with bad contracts in this league. The player isn't worth the money and then their fan bases try to peddle that junk on the trade forum on this board.

The Rangers are committed to playing their young guys. Even if they struggle this season, they are up and down. That shouldn't be factor on what the Rangers do with Hayes. Young guys are supposed to struggle. Chytil is 19. Andersson is 20. There will be growing pains. Howden is 20. The Rangers need to be smart here.

It's not about the $, IMHO, it's about NMC/NTC clauses.

If he hits UFA, someone will pay him close to 6M, so he is "worth" that because that's what the market bears.

Hopefully he has a great year into January and his trade value soars.

 

[kovazub94]

What doesn't make sense? If Hayes says "I am worth over 5 mil, Rangers are a bit skeptical and give him 1 year contract to show that he can break out from being a 40-50 point player to a 55-70 point player. So if Hayes is struggling midway through the season they maybe extend him or trade him, but if he is playing great maybe they extend him at the money he was looking for.

Do you give Hayes NMC/NTC and then pay him this to be your 3rd line center $6m for 4-5 years (after 1-2 years where he’s a top6 forward)?

 

[pld459666]

I look at it this way.

Guys like Panarin in the years 19-20 thru 21-22 will help players like Chytil and Kravtsov advance their maturity.

Playing with that sort if talent can help build confidence.

I'm against trading for these types of players, but if you can obtain them for free (just money) it's a no brainer

Rebuilding doesn't mean you avoid UFAs like the plague

 

[bobbop]

Kakko will be a great player but you take the game breaking center over winger every time

All of Hughes/Turcotte/Newhook and even a few more have that potential

Don’t tell that to Don Maloney

 

[Ghost of jas]

I highly doubt that Panarin will end up here @RangerBoy - he and his agent knows that we are rebuilding for the first year.

Except that there are sources claiming he wants to come to the Rangers.