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Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VIII: Dilly Dilly - Lets Tank!

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I'd rather have great depth than be overly top heavy but the depth has to be managed correctly. Just because you have good depth doesn't mean you don't have a clear line 1,2,3,4 and play everyone similar amounts (AV). You're less at risk of the team falling apart if a key player gets injured if you're built on depth as opposed to a super strong top line or two.

The problem is "depth" gets overpaid in free agency so you can't really get a team like that long term.
 
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Lindberg Cheese said:
Yandle at 3LD was more of a resource misallocation than it was a positive commentary on our depth. I do agree with your concept however.
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I guess, but at the same time we were paying the guy ahead of him 5.7M. Staal’s poor play speaks more to a failure in the management of the team than the philosophy of what they were going for.
 
aufheben said:
It depends which Blackhawks team you’re talking about.

It’s moot anyway, the CBA is different now. You can’t sign players until the sun burns out to save on the cap hit.

Not to mention “elite” is a totally subjective term and at the end of the day pretty useless. Cup formulas, fitting players into nice, little compartments...it all kind of rubs me the wrong way. People will use the 2014 Rangers as an example, but if you’re in the Stanley Cup Final, you are capable of winning a championship; it’s baloney to say otherwise.
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Spot on man.

You know what is interesting to track when it comes to the tag: “Elite.” ?

Singling out ‘elite’ performances. Whether it be PO’s or the regular season. So many folks thinks that once a guy CRUSHES 1 season or 1 PO run, he’s tagged elite. Let’s judge this more on a season by season/P.O. run by PO run basis, no?

i.e.

Barzal, our old pal. I wonder if now that he’s no longer sheltered by John T and his mega-minutes, if his play will pay? It was nice for him not to be the #1 and eat up all of those second/third pair guys.

Willy Karlsson:

I’ve read here and elsewhere that the underlying numbers seemed more in the realm of ‘dude had an elite year all around’. Will he keep it up? Totally dunno.

Two interesting ones to watch.

They elites?

No idea yet.
 
Rongomania said:
Willy Karlsson:

I’ve read here and elsewhere that the underlying numbers seemed more in the realm of ‘dude had an elite year all around’. Will he keep it up? Totally dunno.
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Not sure if this is the case.

Guy shot over 20% 5v5, scored double his expected goals, and had the highest PDO among regulars on the team (per Corsica). He had good (not spectacular) relative possession numbers to accompany those danger beacons, but if anything, his analytics suggest that he is due to plummet back to Earth.
 
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SA16 said:
I'd rather have great depth than be overly top heavy but the depth has to be managed correctly. Just because you have good depth doesn't mean you don't have a clear line 1,2,3,4 and play everyone similar amounts (AV). You're less at risk of the team falling apart if a key player gets injured if you're built on depth as opposed to a super strong top line or two.

The problem is "depth" gets overpaid in free agency so you can't really get a team like that long term.
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My thoughts exactly.
 
Harbour Dog said:
Not sure if this is the case.

Guy shot over 20% 5v5, scored double his expected goals, and had the highest PDO among regulars on the team (per Corsica). He had good (not spectacular) relative possession numbers to accompany those danger beacons, but if anything, his analytics suggest that he is due to plummet back to Earth.
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He rated VERY well in most WAR models, his underlying numbers were elite. He's definitely due a (big) decrease in production but he had Selke numbers and they're likely to stay high.
 
ManUtdTobbe said:
He rated VERY well in most WAR models, his underlying numbers were elite. He's definitely due a (big) decrease in production but he had Selke numbers and they're likely to stay high.
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In addition to his elite raw underlying numbers (high-end 1C), his projected numbers were very good as well albeit not as good (low-end 1C).

WILLIAM.KARLSSON 2017-2018.png
 
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Wild Bill is due for a huge regression this season. He had fewer 5v5 shots this season than some defensemen and shot over 20%. His primary:secondary assist ratio was 1:2, so it’s not like he was the primary guy setting up his teammates for assists. He didn’t have a lot of shots on the powerplay either and shot over 20% there too. He wasn’t a primary assist guy there either.

I’m expecting to see him end up in the 20-35 range this season rather than a repeat 40-30 year. A career 8% shooter doesn’t become a consistent 20+% shooter in an offseason.
 
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Acquiring depth is easy. Finding your Sidney Crosbys & Evgeni Malkins, Alex Ovechkins & Nick Backstroms, Jonathan Toews & Patrick Kanes is the hard part
 
Filthy Dangles said:
Acquiring depth is easy. Finding your Sidney Crosbys & Evgeni Malkins, Alex Ovechkins & Nick Backstroms, Jonathan Toews & Patrick Kanes is the hard part
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Not that I disagree that the second part is hard, but there are a lot of failed rebuilds that failed because they didn't acquire enough quality depth. You take Florida's previous rebuild attempt, which was around Horton, Weiss, Bouwmeester, and those guys not being elite players was only one problem. The other one was that they had one quality player develop outside of their top picks. Let's not diminish the importance
 
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Acquiring good depth isn't easy. Acquiring bad and overpriced depth is.

You can easily get good cheap 4th line depth (think Stempniak types) that sign in August but you can't get 2nd line type depth in FA at reasonable prices.
 
Tawnos said:
Not that I disagree that the second part is hard, but there are a lot of failed rebuilds that failed because they didn't acquire enough quality depth. You take Florida's previous rebuild attempt, which was around Horton, Weiss, Bouwmeester, and those guys not being elite players was only one problem. The other one was that they had one quality player develop outside of their top picks. Let's not diminish the importance
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The Oilers have the best player on the planet and they missed the playoffs last year.

The Stars have Seguin and Benn along with Klingberg and they missed the playoffs.
 
NYR Viper said:
The Oilers have the best player on the planet and they missed the playoffs last year.

The Stars have Seguin and Benn along with Klingberg and they missed the playoffs.
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And Draisaitl. Problem for them is that their next most productive forward is RNH, followed by Ryan Strome. Kind of uninspiring. I mean they have a lot of problems, but lack of real offensive depth is one. Mega star, star, good offensive producer, meh offensive producer, then not much.
 
nyr2k2 said:
And Draisaitl. Problem for them is that their next most productive forward is RNH, followed by Ryan Strome. Kind of uninspiring. I mean they have a lot of problems, but lack of real offensive depth is one. Mega star, star, good offensive producer, meh offensive producer, then not much.
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Almost like trading an elite winger for a 2nd pairing d-man isn't a good idea :dunno:
 
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Tawnos said:
Except they have defensive depth problems too.

And at the time they traded Hall, I don't think anyone would have referred to him as an elite winger. 1st liner, yes. Elite, no.
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So true. In his Edmonton career, he had the league's 12th best points per 60, 18th best p160, a +4.3 relCF%, +9.69 relGF%, and +5.77 relxGF%. Really hard to pinpoint this player as a probably elite player in the league [all 5v5]. These definitely aren't elite numbers. Well, I suppose it depends on how many people you consider can be 'elite' at the same time.

If you're not into rate metrics, which is totally fine, his 212 points during 5v5 play ranked 23rd among forwards. Only two players above him played less ice time, St. Louis, and Crosby.

I could see why Edmonton would be willing to sacrifice this for a guy who is OK.

And I guess I should go ahead and say that yes, the way I evaluate players is different from the way you might, and that is totally okay.

[data via corsica.hockey]

Go Away Staal said:
I wouldn’t call Larson a 2nd pair D either
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The only metric that Larsson performs like a first-pairing d-man is TOI/gp
 
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