Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VII: Now with less frenzy!

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Going to predict the Sabres have a better record than the Rangers.

I hope so because the Sabres are gonna still suck. If we're worse that means we're that much closer to the lottery JACKpot

 

[Fvital92]

I hope so because the Sabres are gonna still suck. If we're worse that means we're that much closer to the lottery JACKpot

If they get decent goaltending they will be better than us.
Right now I think only Ottawa, Montreal and Detroit are a sure bet to be worst than us.

 

[effen]

I feel like there's a strong correlation between the "the worse we are the better it is this year! WOO lets suck!" and people who sim through garbage seasons of the NHL2K series to get to the fun bits.

We did that for half a year last year and it ate my and everyones soul and our reward was the 9th pick. I'm not really up for one of the good years of my life being used up to suck for a very marginally better chance at a particular magic bean.

To say nothing of the fact that losing and creating a losing culture matter in the real world.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Chances aren't just marginally better but whatever.

 

[emodwarf]

In Berserk's defense, one of the hardest things to calculate in today's NHL is the "rate of inflation" when it comes to player salaries.

The cap keeps gradually going up, and the budget for players at particular levels rises with it.

Sometimes it's hard to figure out that $5 million player from 2014 is a $7 million player in 2018 (or something generally along those lines). So in that sense, I totally get it.

It's kind of like having to constantly adjust production "expectations" for what constitutes a first line player, second line player, etc.

Nearly 25 years ago, your first line wingers better be in the 30+ range, with the top guys scoring 40 or more. Your first line center damn well better be scoring 80+ points as well.

That's gradually changed with time, which is to say nothing about having more balanced offenses.

So it's a constant, but very gradual evolution.

Great points, as per usual.

I think part of what trips people up is thinking mainly of the hard AAV number, when it probably makes more sense to think of it as % of team salary cap. What does a recently signed player of comparable production, age, number of RFA/UFA years signed for, etc. make in terms of the team's cap?

That allows for increases in salary cap, since as the pie gets bigger the slices should too since they're theoretically tied to the size of the pie itself. A $7-mil contract signed this year isn't nearly the same as a $7-mil contract signed 5 years ago, considering the hard cap has increased by $10.5-million since then. That's a 15% increase in overall cap, so I'd expect new salaries to track similarly.

Looking at things through that lens, comparing historically gets easier and more relevant too. Kinda like how there's a way to convert points produced in other leagues to what they'd be in the NHL.

**EDIT: Ugh, still too simplified. Doesn't factor in that, as you mentioned, avg production has changed over time as well. F*ck it, we'll do it live!

 

[NYR]

I feel like there's a strong correlation between the "the worse we are the better it is this year! WOO lets suck!" and people who sim through garbage seasons of the NHL2K series to get to the fun bits.

We did that for half a year last year and it ate my and everyones soul and our reward was the 9th pick. I'm not really up for one of the good years of my life being used up to suck for a very marginally better chance at a particular magic bean.

To say nothing of the fact that losing and creating a losing culture matter in the real world.

There is absolutely zero excuse for any professional sports team (that only exists for the simple reason of competing) to tank for a possible better pick in the draft.

It's the equivalent to faking an injury in order to collect a disability pay check all while you're home sitting your lazy ass on the couch.

It's chicken shit and is completely devoid of any moral values.

#NoRespect

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

I feel like there's a strong correlation between the "the worse we are the better it is this year! WOO lets suck!" and people who sim through garbage seasons of the NHL2K series to get to the fun bits.

We did that for half a year last year and it ate my and everyones soul and our reward was the 9th pick. I'm not really up for one of the good years of my life being used up to suck for a very marginally better chance at a particular magic bean.

To say nothing of the fact that losing and creating a losing culture matter in the real world.

We played purestrain AV 5-4 clown hockey to close out the season. I actually thought parts of that stretch were super fun, of course there were nightmares like that one Tampa game. It didn't eat up my soul to see the 2017 first rounders, Gilmour's skating, Ryan Spooner's weird point streak, that Western Canada trip where we kept winning with 50 shots against etc.

I keep calling Quinn a "black box" because going from a high-end college team to a low-end NHL team, I don't know how he'll want us to play. Just because AV was so extreme, I expect better possession numbers, more sanity at the back end, an easier job for Lundqvist and less odd-man rushes for our forwards. I think the results will still be pretty bad - if they're not, I was too hard on the roster and I wasn't hard enough on AV.

There are ways we can be bad that would be painful, but if the games are good to watch, the young players have good individual seasons and there's no Lundqvist drama (I only worry about that because I don't understand why he wants to stay), I'd call that pretty painless.

 

[NYR]

I can't see how a green coach (and staff) fresh out of college comes in and just automatically out coaches AV.

I'm all for change and a new system but to think that Quinn is just going to come in here and pull the wool over anyone's eyes is a bit naive IMO

 

[bobbop]

The best chance of aquiring talent is drafting high. The quickest way to turn things around is drafting very good to elite type players.

One of the only ways you're getting those players, is by drafting high consistently. . The handful of teams that have won SC and dominated the last few days 10-15 years have done this... the teams that failed using this method have OTHER ISSUES. ..

Has the Rangers scouting system shown they can mine jewels all over the draft?

Unfortunately, the likely scenario is the Rangers develop a "good" core and sign another big name FA, in the not too distant future. ..

Given your time frame, I don’t agree with your analysis. Yes to the Penguins and Blackhawks. (Of course, this conversation is moot if the Penguins didn’t pass on Jonathan Toews) The Kings most important players were drafted #2, #11 and #72. They blew a #4 on Thomas Hickey. Washington had a #1 and a #4 but it took 12 years for them to win. No other contributors on their Cup team were picked in the top 10. The Red Wings had no one they picked in the top 10 on their 07 and 08 teams.

There is no foolproof way to rebuild. Probably the one thing that I see as a commonality is a) some big time luck on later draft picks (i.e. Letang, Quick) and b) astute trades for players rather than draft picks. I’d like to see Jack Hughes as much as the next person but even if the Rangers are the worse team in the league next year, that gets you a 20% chance of getting him.

Right now, the GM and the head scout have full responsibility for rebuilding the team. The only way to make a final judgement is results. That needle needs to start showing some movement this year or the heat will get much greater.

 

[Uncle Dru]

I can't see how a green coach (and staff) fresh out of college comes in and just automatically out coaches AV.

I'm all for change and a new system but to think that Quinn is just going to come in here and pull the wool over anyone's eyes is a bit naive IMO

NYR had a shot differential (5v5) of -339 last year, far and away the worst in the NHL. Things of this nature I expect to look at least margnially better this upcoming season.

 

[Tawnos]

Great points, as per usual.

I think part of what trips people up is thinking mainly of the hard AAV number, when it probably makes more sense to think of it as % of team salary cap. What does a recently signed player of comparable production, age, number of RFA/UFA years signed for, etc. make in terms of the team's cap?

That allows for increases in salary cap, since as the pie gets bigger the slices should too since they're theoretically tied to the size of the pie itself. A $7-mil contract signed this year isn't nearly the same as a $7-mil contract signed 5 years ago, considering the hard cap has increased by $10.5-million since then. That's a 15% increase in overall cap, so I'd expect new salaries to track similarly.

Looking at things through that lens, comparing historically gets easier and more relevant too. Kinda like how there's a way to convert points produced in other leagues to what they'd be in the NHL.

**EDIT: Ugh, still too simplified. Doesn't factor in that, as you mentioned, avg production has changed over time as well. F*ck it, we'll do it live!

People still have to remember that what they’re comparing is the deal at the time of signing and not the deal today, even if you are looking at cap %. And that requires remember what the cap happened to be that particular year.

Do you remember off hand the cap in 2010-11?

 

[NYR]

NYR had a shot differential (5v5) of -339 last year, far and away the worst in the NHL. Things of this nature I expect to look at least margnially better this upcoming season.

I'm absolutely loving the philosophy behind Quinn's game plan but again, he's not coming in here fooling any of the veteran coaches of the league.

I fully expect him to get bitch slapped in the beginning but we'll see how he adjusts, which is going define him.

To add to that, even if they do improve that shot differential, it's what's coming back defensively that's going to be more of a concern.

Coaching at the NHL level vs College is worlds apart..

 

[Ola]

Chris Peters ‏ Verified account @chrismpeters .... Oliver Wahlstrom (NYI) has had a very quiet camp so far. Not getting his shots like normal and hasn't looked as crisp. Asked Mike Hastings his thoughts: He's not concerned. Wants Wahlstrom to just stick with it. He still has a lot of confidence in him to produce for this team.

——

What is that, I thought the kid had no flaws?? He is supposedly a great skater who moves really well and has tremendous energy on the ice. #PavelBrendl2.0

Hehe, but I am only half kidding. What I wrote on OW when I made my top 31 was that pick him and you will lose sleep over it, don’t pick him and you will lose sleep over it too.

I had him fairly high and I like him — but so many ‘experts’ didn’t recognize any of the flaws the kid have and really heavily called any question marks about him. The progress on that front will be pleasant to follow.

I’ve said it before. I am cautiously very optimistic on the OW vs Krapshots front.

 

[Irishguy42]

In an alternate reality, we drafted Wahlstrom and are already preparing trades proposals with him included.

In another alternate reality, we drafted Dobson and are chilling on a beach somewhere.

But in this reality, where we drafted Kravstov, we are chilling in Brighton Beach.

 

[NYR]

In an alternate reality, we drafted Wahlstrom and are already preparing trades proposals with him included.

In another alternate reality, we drafted Dobson and are chilling on a beach somewhere.

But in this reality, where we drafted Kravstov, we are chilling in Brighton Beach.

While I've come around on picking Kravstov, it's yet to be determined.
Wahlstrom shows up on game day so no need to knock him IMO..

 

[emodwarf]

People still have to remember that what they’re comparing is the deal at the time of signing and not the deal today, even if you are looking at cap %. And that requires remember what the cap happened to be that particular year.

Do you remember off hand the cap in 2010-11?

Sure didn’t remember, haha. Had to look it up, which took 15 seconds. I wasn’t saying this would be easy or easier, just more realistic and therefore more accurate and useful.

If someone wants to say a player is overpaid, taking a minute to look up facts and do a bit of math isn’t unreasonable.

It seems like a pretty reasonable bar to me. How often do people here go round and round based purely on subjective opinions? With something like this, there can at least be some rigor involved.

 

[Synergy27]

There is absolutely zero excuse for any professional sports team (that only exists for the simple reason of competing) to tank for a possible better pick in the draft.

It's the equivalent to faking an injury in order to collect a disability pay check all while you're home sitting your lazy ass on the couch.

It's chicken **** and is completely devoid of any moral values.

#NoRespect

Do you also think that teams should never sell at the deadline when they're out of the race?

 

[rangerfan_79]

Losing will happen all on it's own so no need to tank.
1. New coach and system - will take most of the season adjusting
2. None of our 1st round picks from this year will be in the lineup, unlike some other teams that picked before and after us.
3. TDL will likely see 2 of our top 6 forwards getting moved.
4. We still have to wait another season for the rest of the players to come over from Russia.

Watching them lose will be painful but it's part of the process.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Losing will happen all on it's own so no need to tank.
1. New coach and system - will take most of the season adjusting
2. None of our 1st round picks from this year will be in the lineup, unlike some other teams that picked before and after us.
3. TDL will likely see 2 of our top 6 forwards getting moved.
4. We still have to wait another season for the rest of the players to come over from Russia.

Watching them lose will be painful but it's part of the process.

1. I don't think the system change will be an issue. There was an issue going from Torts to AV because AV is AV.
2. True
3. Also true, maybe 3 if Spooner is a top 6 guy for us.
4. Yes.

We're going to suck, the level of suck is still up in the air though depending on how much other teams suck.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

If the Rangers are competitive, does that change the plan? Not in terms of a rebuild but gutting the team even further?

I was thinking about it tonight and honestly in the East, do any of you think Carolina, Ottawa, Detroit, Montreal, Islanders, Florida, or Buffalo will be better than the Rangers? And if so, why?

That leaves them with only one team to outperform and they're in the WildCard. Tampa/Boston/Toronto should be the top three in the Atlantic, it's all about who stays healthiest for jockeying. In the Metro it's Washington/Pittsburgh and then Columbus/Devils/Philadelphia. Of the later three, there's a good chance any of of the could regress. Devils did absolutely nothing this offseason. Maybe the quietest in the league. Columbus is an interesting case. Torts is at about the point where he begins to wear out his welcome. That team made some moves, but does the Panarin going to UFA become the distraction for that team?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

If the Rangers are competitive, does that change the plan? Not in terms of a rebuild but gutting the team even further?

I was thinking about it tonight and honestly in the East, do any of you think Carolina, Ottawa, Detroit, Montreal, Islanders, Florida, or Buffalo will be better than the Rangers? And if so, why?

That leaves them with only one team to outperform and they're in the WildCard. Tampa/Boston/Toronto should be the top three in the Atlantic, it's all about who stays healthiest for jockeying. In the Metro it's Washington/Pittsburgh and then Columbus/Devils/Philadelphia. Of the later three, there's a good chance any of of the could regress. Devils did absolutely nothing this offseason. Maybe the quietest in the league. Columbus is an interesting case. Torts is at about the point where he begins to wear out his welcome. That team made some moves, but does the Panarin going to UFA become the distraction for that team?

The only team on that list guaranteed to be worse than the Rangers in that list is Ottawa

 

[Blue Blooded]

Hot take:

Trade Zuccarello and sign Rick Nash.

 

[haohmaru]

NYR had a shot differential (5v5) of -339 last year, far and away the worst in the NHL. Things of this nature I expect to look at least margnially better this upcoming season.

Wow, that's even worse than I thought and I thought it was pretty bad.

 

[Irishguy42]

Stone over Panarin next offseason, tbh

 

[Rongomania]

Stone over Panarin next offseason, tbh

Interesting thought for sure.

Breadman breaks games, those OT goals I’ve seen him rock are flat out disgusting. He clutch. Droolfest.