You can throw all the point totals you want out there, but its really just a narrow way of looking at it. In his first year here, he really only scored at a .07 PPG more than his career norm, without Panarin. So to play it off as he was having some anomaly of success before Panarin came is just flat out a misconception. And keep in mind he was given the most Average TOI in his career when he got here. It was 40 and 50 seconds more per game than he received with the Islanders and Oilers, respectively. So he was essentially getting 1-2 more shifts per game to get that .07 PPG bump. That year in EDM before the trade he was averaging 14:25 TOI. He shot up another minute and a half here in a more prominent role because quite frankly we didnt have a ton of depth, especially after the trade deadline where we shipped out Hayes and Zucc.
But its his play away from the puck that is an absolute travesty. He is bad defensively. He makes dumb decisions like going for line changes instead of hustling back when the opposition has an odd man rush. Or the countless mind numbing penalties he takes... all over the ice. I have referred to it before (and im sure someone can find the graphic) Mike Johnston on NHLN pulled up his numbers away from Panarin. The gap was alarming. He gets pinned in his own end. He doesnt win faceoffs enough. He is replaceable. I wouldnt pay him a dollar more than the $4.5 and thats being generous imo. He should be between $4-$4.5 and then you sell him at the deadline.
And you know, I wonder what he would even get in this volatile market had he been a UFA. There are still names on the board that would provide a more rounded game to fit a role and come at a cheaper bargain, which in turn would reduce his market value. Would he get $4+? Yeah there is certainly a chance, but there are a lot of teams up against the cap. Maybe Buffalo would throw the cash at him even with the Hall signing AND even though ownership has taken a financial hit from COVID because they are desperate to make the playoffs for Eichel. I would rather take that $4 million and spread out over 2 other players and create more depth for the Team Play on a nightly basis while not sacrificing much offensive output, if any.