Roster Building thread - Part IX - (2024 edition)

[Synergy27]

The lines get scrambled during on the fly changes. It doesn't seem like much but it adds up.

Jimmy Vesey has a goal this year assisted by Blake Wheeler. They play the same position.

Trouba has managed to tally up 126 5v5 minutes without Miller. Two whole games. In that time he's giving up 73.14 shot attempts per 60 and 3.49 xG against per 60. Those are video game numbers.

Has Trouba always sucked or has he regressed?

 

[Machinehead]

I'll argue, not to defend Trouba, lol, that a lot of those 126 minutes are when we are turtling late when we are protecting a lead. We did have a long string where we were winning games by a goal or two.

Who is Trouba playing with in the non-Miller minutes? I’m not trying to be facetious, just trying to know the whole context. Although this is why I’ve never seen these advanced stats as gospel. They tell you about as much of the whole story as counting stats and overall team results do.

It doesn't really matter. There's no context in which giving up 73 shot attempts every 60 minutes is an acceptable result.

 

[McRanger92]

I guess you missed all of the turnovers Trouba had in front of his own net in that game. Miller wasn't good but Trouba was a creator of his own chaos on Tuesday and has been so for most of this season.

He also had a terrible pinch and turnover before Miller ended up taking his penalty and then got dangled and lost his guy before Lindgren got sucked into and alternate universe on the PK where Seattle scored their 2nd goal.

He's the problem on that pair. People will point out the rare occasion where someone gets behind Miller on the rush but ignore that he doesn't often get tried because teams basically have a free entry when trying Trouba since he leaves the biggest gaps imaginable.

He hits people and certainly plays with a ton of passion but thats really all he's bringing to the table right now.

Same goes for Lindgren, except he does it with even worse offense and getting blown the f*** up.

Trouba’s not a perfect player, nor is Miller. And I’m one of Miller’s biggest supporters. I just think the pairing is bad and Trouba ends up out numbered on defense a lot because Miller makes a bad play trying to be something he’s not.

 

[Machinehead]

Has Trouba always sucked or has he regressed?

He regressed on offense a lot and his defense regressed a bit, but he was never good at defense.

Coaches use him in a defensive role because he's tall and physical.

That's why I always love hearing that people want to bring in even more players that are slightly taller than average so they can eat minutes they can't handle.

 

[McRanger92]

It doesn't really matter. There's no context in which giving up 73 shot attempts every 60 minutes is an acceptable result.

I think context matters. Who is on the ice with, against, what’s the game situation, etc. Again I think the guy is overpaid and slumping recently but he fills an important and thankless role.

 

[Machinehead]

I think context matters. Who is on the ice with, against, what’s the game situation, etc. Again I think the guy is overpaid and slumping recently but he fills an important and thankless role.

It does matter but it doesn't explain away rates that are just about shorthanded.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Trouba’s not a perfect player, nor is Miller. And I’m one of Miller’s biggest supporters. I just think the pairing is bad and Trouba ends up out numbered on defense a lot because Miller makes a bad play trying to be something he’s not.

It's usually the reverse.

If that were the case, his numbers would be better away from him. They aren't. They're worse.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

It does matter but it doesn't explain away rates that are just about shorthanded.

I'm not a big advance stats guy so excuse my ignorance, but why are you pinning shot attempts on just one guy? There's four other players on the ice with him. Do those shot attempts go down dramatically when he's not on the ice?

 

[Machinehead]

I'm not a big advance stats guy so excuse my ignorance, but why are you pinning shot attempts on just one guy? There's four other players on the ice with him. Do those shot attempts go down dramatically when he's not on the ice?

Because there's more than evidence to show that Trouba is the signal in the data.

 

[McRanger92]

It's usually the reverse.

If that were the case, his numbers would be better away from him. They aren't. They're worse.

This goes back to my other point but Trouba is only playing with worse players than miller when they get split up. It’s not like he’s ever on the ice with Fox like K’Andre is. I don’t expect Trouba’s numbers to look better playing with Lindgren, who Fox can barely keep afloat, or Gustafsson, who is good for a nuclear turnover or 2 in his own right every game

 

[JimmyG89]

Cuylle-Chytil-Wheeler (according to Brooks) might actually work and that a big boy line if I've seen one for this team. Won't lose too many battles in the corners with these guys. Could swap Chytil and Trocheck too and that line is your shutdown one.

We're so close to Bonino out of the lineup and I cannot wait for that day. At least Vesey-Goodrow-Pitlick can break even as a 4th line.

It does matter but it doesn't explain away rates that are just about shorthanded.

Per NST, Trouba away from Miller and Fox, the two best defensemen on the team, he has the following at 5v5:

39.7 CF%
28.5% GF%
40% xGF% & SCF%

This is mostly when he is paired with Lindgren because his numbers with Gus are not that bad (xGF% is 42% but everything else is improved around 47-48%).

If you want to lose vision, punch in the Lindgren-Trouba pairing which has played about 32 minutes together this season. Schneider isn't much better with Trouba, but that is 100% not a choice Laviolette is making, that is when they are changing on the fly.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Because there's more than evidence to show that Trouba is the signal in the data.

So his 73 shot attempts per 60 is way more than the other 5 defenseman? What's the league average for shot attempts?

 

[Machinehead]

So his 73 shot attempts per 60 is way more than the other 5 defenseman? What's the league average for shot attempts?

In the 40's is probably already not great.

 

[TGWL]

Clearing the crease doesn't mean you need to be a big, strong defender. It doesn't mean you need to knock players on their ass. It means you need to stay with your player. Tie up their stick. Not let second or 3rd chances go in. Give your goaltender the ability to see the puck and make a save.

Rangers are 4th in rebound goals against. How much is that due to the defense just losing their guy, and how much does that fall on goaltending? If you change it to all situation, Rangers drop down 20 spots. That tells me that when they actually play defense, like on the PK, they can control the front of the net. Rangers being a team with a high rebound above expected also paints a picture that it's not a clearing the front issue, It's either goaltending, or the defense letting players have an easy, in close shot that generates a rebound because they aren't playing well in their defensive coverage. (I couldn't find how many deflected goals in front of the crease they let up)

Getting out of the bottom 15-20 in high danger chances against seems like a much better solution.

 

[hardnosed]

He regressed on offense a lot and his defense regressed a bit, but he was never good at defense.

Coaches use him in a defensive role because he's tall and physical.

That's why I always love hearing that people want to bring in even more players that are slightly taller than average so they can eat minutes they can't handle.

Trouba looks like he should be great on defense. He's got the build, the strength and the meanness to kill guys. The bottom line is that he does not know how to play defense. He makes the wrong decision every time. Couple games ago, he steps up to make a check at the circle turning a 3 on 2 into a 2 on 1. Miller looks like a clown playing the 2 on 1 by diving and getting beat and a goal. Last game, somehow he gets caught up at the circle staring at the puck on a PK, one pass and it's a 2 on 1 against Lindgren and a goal. If he's not stepping up and stranding his partner, he's backing all the way to the bottom of the circle and allowing the guy to wind up for a dangerous shot. Then he drops to a knee and tries to block it. Do you see guys like Hedman doing that? Of course not. That's not playing freaking defense. That just shows a complete lack.of gap control. He should be close enough to that guy to defend with his stick.and body by the point that guy gets that close.

 

[mas0764]

I guess you missed all of the turnovers Trouba had in front of his own net in that game. Miller wasn't good but Trouba was a creator of his own chaos on Tuesday and has been so for most of this season.

He also had a terrible pinch and turnover before Miller ended up taking his penalty and then got dangled and lost his guy before Lindgren got sucked into and alternate universe on the PK where Seattle scored their 2nd goal.

He's the problem on that pair. People will point out the rare occasion where someone gets behind Miller on the rush but ignore that he doesn't often get tried because teams basically have a free entry when trying Trouba since he leaves the biggest gaps imaginable.

He hits people and certainly plays with a ton of passion but thats really all he's bringing to the table right now.

Same goes for Lindgren, except he does it with even worse offense and getting blown the f*** up.

Except with Lindgren he can point to the last 3 years and say "But I provided A- defense those years at least."

All Trouba can say is "Yeah, it's F defense now, but last year it was D, and there was that one year it was C-."

Has Trouba always sucked or has he regressed?

Always sucked AND regressed, sadly.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

This goes back to my other point but Trouba is only playing with worse players than miller when they get split up. It’s not like he’s ever on the ice with Fox like K’Andre is. I don’t expect Trouba’s numbers to look better playing with Lindgren, who Fox can barely keep afloat, or Gustafsson, who is good for a nuclear turnover or 2 in his own right every game

You're missing the point.

It's not that just K'Andre's numbers get better away from Trouba, so do the numbers of the other D that he ends up playing with.

And again, if someone is going to have a nuclear turnover in his own end, its most likely going to be Trouba. The other thing is that they both end up playing with one another the majority of the time when they're trying to defend a lead so nothing changes there.

If theres any game situation where he ends up taking a shift with someone else it's when they're trailing a game. Gus has better numbers with Schneider in every other situation than he does with Trouba when they're pressing.

Also Miller isn't the one who usually gets paired with Fox when they're pressing, it's Gustafsson.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

In the 40's is probably already not great.

A 33 shot differential seems massive then, ouch. But I still think it's a little unfair to pin it all on him when he's not the only guy out there. Is there a huge difference in Miller's numbers when he's not out there with Trouba? I ask because, to my eyes, it seems like Miller has been making a number of awful decisions this season and getting caught a lot whereas Trouba's problems seem to be more about coverage in their own end and the fact that the puck has been like a grenade on his stick.

 

[mas0764]

Trouba’s not a perfect player, nor is Miller. And I’m one of Miller’s biggest supporters. I just think the pairing is bad and Trouba ends up out numbered on defense a lot because Miller makes a bad play trying to be something he’s not.

You say I have an axe to grind; dude, the agenda you have to excuse this guy. He's awful.

We can agree he's not going anywhere for this season at least so I will say I agree the pairs need to be swapped. Miller with Fox and Lindgren with Trouba would seem to make more sense.

Trouba's defensive struggles are his own but at least Lindgren is historically a defensive rock who will match better with Trouba's deficiencies.

Meanwhile Miller won't drag down Fox's offensive output so badly.

 

[bernmeister]

One could easily argue that losing Harpur helped the team in case of injury since he is likely significantly worse than any other option they could call up. Mackey is awful too. These guys are not viable depth. They're just guys who have played NHL games in the past. If someone got hurt I would far rather see Robertson who might be good or might be bad, or trade for a potentially competent bottom pair guy, than play someone I know for certain is way below average.

Agreed, Jones/Mackey subpar

Chychrun has one more year left before UFA. An extension would be top pairing large. The cost to acquire will be close to top pairing large. What I'm reading is KAM up on the top pair with Fox and you've paid an exorbitant amount for a top pairing guy to underutilize him as a 2nd pairing guy. There's other holes to fill. LD doesn't need to be so stacked. There's a cap and forward talent matters more.

While we do need to boost areas including LD, we def do not wanna give up KAM or go other steps backward, and then like you correctly note, we effed ourselves on cap.

bern will deliver a blue print over the w'e
watch....

Cuylle-Chytil-Wheeler (according to Brooks) might actually work and that a big boy line if I've seen one for this team. Won't lose too many battles in the corners with these guys. Could swap Chytil and Trocheck too and that line is your shutdown one.

We're so close to Bonino out of the lineup and I cannot wait for that day. At least Vesey-Goodrow-Pitlick can break even as a 4th line.


Per NST, Trouba away from Miller and Fox, the two best defensemen on the team, he has the following at 5v5:

39.7 CF%
28.5% GF%
40% xGF% & SCF%

This is mostly when he is paired with Lindgren because his numbers with Gus are not that bad (xGF% is 42% but everything else is improved around 47-48%).

If you want to lose vision, punch in the Lindgren-Trouba pairing which has played about 32 minutes together this season. Schneider isn't much better with Trouba, but that is 100% not a choice Laviolette is making, that is when they are changing on the fly.

the correct line here is
Cuy - Chyi - KK
wheeler elsewhere

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Except with Lindgren he can point to the last 3 years and say "But I provided A- defense those years at least."

All Trouba can say is "Yeah, it's F defense now, but last year it was D, and there was that one year it was C-."



Always sucked AND regressed, sadly.

I don't even think thats true.

He was bad 2 years ago (not this year bad) and I'm highly skeptical of how good he is in his own end because he plays most of his shifts with an elite 2 way defender.

Probably closer to B defense (before this year) and F offense where as this season is C- defense with F offense.

Also, I think Braden Schneider is under utilized.

Might be time to give him a bigger bite of the pie and see if his stomach can handle it.

 

[McRanger92]

You say I have an axe to grind; dude, the agenda you have to excuse this guy. He's awful.

We can agree he's not going anywhere for this season at least so I will say I agree the pairs need to be swapped. Miller with Fox and Lindgren with Trouba would seem to make more sense.

Trouba's defensive struggles are his own but at least Lindgren is historically a defensive rock who will match better with Trouba's deficiencies.

Meanwhile Miller won't drag down Fox's offensive output so badly.

I hear what you’re saying. I really don’t want to defend him honestly, especially not recently. The numbers just don’t match up with what I see when I watch the play on the ice.

If we go out meekly again in the playoffs, I’ll be on his ass more than I was with Panarin last summer. But at the end of the day we’re still in first place and it’s not because of Igor so the skaters overall are doing something right. Trouba is a positive contributor to that success. No one blocks more big shots or breaks up more plays late protecting leads for example. Just one man’s unpopular opinion.

 

[mrmovies779]

I hear what you’re saying. I really don’t want to defend him honestly, especially not recently. The numbers just don’t match up with what I see when I watch the play on the ice.

If we go out meekly again in the playoffs, I’ll be on his ass more than I was with Panarin last summer. But at the end of the day we’re still in first place and it’s not because of Igor so the skaters overall are doing something right. Trouba is a positive contributor to that success. No one blocks more big shots or breaks up more plays late protecting leads for example. Just one man’s unpopular opinion.

I'm not surprised he's so good at blocking shots..he gets enough practice doing it every game-thats not necessarily a good thing either

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

Trouba looks like he should be great on defense. He's got the build, the strength and the meanness to kill guys.

To me he looks more like a guy who shouldn’t even be in the league. He’s got the foot speed of Lizzo, no edges, no IQ, no composure or puck skills to make passes under forecheck pressure. Just a prototypical cone that coaches love because he’s a large American and deals out some CTE once a week

 

[McRanger92]

I'm not surprised he's so good at blocking shots..he gets enough practice doing it every game-thats not necessarily a good thing either

When you play against the opponents best players and your forwards don’t back check consistently. You get hemmed in a lot. Trouba aint innocent in those situations either. The whole team is bad at clearing the zone without icing the puck. Too much stick checking and reaching instead of feet moving. It’s why I hesitate to say it’s on one guy.