Roster Building thread - Part IX - (2024 edition)

[duhmetreE]

I'm less concerned about who is playing top-4 than I am about rounding out a really good top-6. I like Gustafsson and Schneider together. I think that it is a relatively low cost pairing for the next 2-3 years that can play decent minutes in various situations. Whether they play more minutes than another pairing is semantics but what I do want to see is another LD brought in to help round out the other two pairings.

LD:
Hanifan
Miller
Gustafsson

RD:
Fox
Trouba
Schneider

That's a really good group of 6 d-men and, even assuming a nice contract for Hanifan in the $7m range, it's a defense that shouldn't be THAT expensive over the next couple of years with Miller on his deal for next season, Schneider not likely looking for a large contract (I think ~$1.75M is liekly) and Gustafsson likely coming in around that same number.

I think that's the ideal group. Now if Hanifan re-signs, I could be convinced that going lower cap hit, like Edmundson or Cole or someone like that could allow the team to add a nice secondary scorer/effective forward.

Problem is you most likley have to move Trouba if you're doling out a big contract.

That's why I like Chychrun a little more. Have another year at 4.6M. Maybe can even work out some retention.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Trouba only plays with Miller 5v5 so I’m confused by how he’s giving up so many more chances. He plays with Lindgren on the PP, so that would make complete sense that they are bleeding chances. Not saying you’re wrong but these advanced stats always leaving me with more questions than answers.

Because sometimes guys get flipped around, one guy is able to change and an icing occurs, a PK ends and a guy gets caught out a little bit longer, etc

As a pairing, Miller-Trouba and Lindgren-Fox almost have identical HDCA/60's. Gus-Schneider is the only pair below 10 in that regard (expected, they play the softest minutes but this is still good) and they have a higher HDCF/60 than Lindgren-Fox (not expected, they don't get the bulk of their minutes with this team's better players.)

For all of those clamoring for a CREASE CLEARING DEFENSEMAN!11!!! your attention needs to be diverted to where the issues with the D actually exist. Theres no reason why our 3rd pair should have a higher HDCF rate than a pair with Adam Fox on it.

Their defensive numbers as a pair aren't exactly great either and the guy who is supposed to be the defensive conscience on that line is the one who is hurting them in that regard.

 

[McRanger92]

Because sometimes guys get flipped around, one guy is able to change and an icing occurs, a PK ends and a guy gets caught out a little bit longer, etc

As a pairing, Miller-Trouba and Lindgren-Fox almost have identical HDCA/60's. Gus-Schneider is the only pair below 10 in that regard (expected, they play the softest minutes but this is still good) and they have a higher HDCF/60 than Lindgren-Fox (not expected, they don't get the bulk of their minutes with this team's better players.)

For all of those clamoring for a CREASE CLEARING DEFENSEMAN!11!!! your attention needs to be diverted to where the issues with the D actually exist. Theres no reason why our 3rd pair should have a higher HDCF rate than a pair with Adam Fox on it.

Their defensive numbers as a pair aren't exactly great either and the guy who is supposed to be the defensive conscience on that line is the one who is hurting them in that regard.

Yeah I mean I don’t agree with Larry that we need to bring in Luke Schenn I just want another top 4 guy. I also think everyone’s underlying numbers would look better if we made the Miller/Fox pair we’ve all been clamoring for. Trouba isn’t a bad player. I know what the numbers say but watching the game at the Garden Tuesday confirmed what I’d been thinking for awhile. Miller hurts Trouba’s game. Miller gets beat too much below the hashmarks and is bad on breakouts. He’s better in the O zone when he has the puck but he can’t get shot through and when you have them blocked at the blue line it puts the pairing in chaotic positions going the other way.

 

[hardnosed]

Trouba only plays with Miller 5v5 so I’m confused by how he’s giving up so many more chances. He plays with Lindgren on the PP, so that would make complete sense that they are bleeding chances. Not saying you’re wrong but these advanced stats always leaving me with more questions than answers.

Trouba/Lindgren have played together even strength (I'm assuming 6 on 5 with the goalie out is ES) last 5 minutes when protecting leads. Obviously we give up a lot of HDC when the other team is not worried about defending.

 

[bleedblue94]

For the playoffs this year the team absolutely needs another vet defender with some size that can step into the lineup when someone is injured. People are absolutely right that during the regular season size isn't a big deal anymore for d men and crease clearing but the game changes in the playoffs. It ALWAYS changes in the playoffs.

 

[NYR Viper]

Problem is you most likley have to move Trouba if you're doling out a big contract.

That's why I like Chychrun a little more. Have another year at 4.6M. Maybe can even work out some retention.

It fits with these contracts handed out. That may be a tad high for Gustafsson and I traded Lindgren for Pinto but if they go for picks/prospects in lieu of Pinto than they could have space to go out and sign a veteran UFA for less and fill that spot. This is assuming a $4m cap increase

 

[McRanger92]

For the playoffs this year the team absolutely needs another vet defender with some size that can step into the lineup when someone is injured. People are absolutely right that during the regular season size isn't a big deal anymore for d men and crease clearing but the game changes in the playoffs. It ALWAYS changes in the playoffs.

We can’t be one playoff injury away from Zac Jones. Non-starter

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I don't know if one season of control is going to make that much of a difference. I'm assuming Ottawa acquired Chychrun thinking that he was a long-term piece. Arizona knew he wanted out and they wouldn't be able to keep him, so they took what they could. Ottawa may be content to hold him and try to sign him long-term in two years, which makes the trade cost more expensive.

Control makes a massive difference. The difference in returns based on what a player can get at the deadline vs what they'll get a few months later (assuming they still have control) is pretty significant. In the case of Chychrun, it would be 3 potential playoff runs vs 2

Chychrun allegedly wants out of Ottawa too which is what has sparked this convo. Assuming there is truth to that (and there probably is, Ottawa is a f***ing shit show) they're in the same position that Arizona was in with a year less to work with. Now they don't HAVE to move him so thats true, but they'll risk getting back nothing for him if he were to walk as a UFA in a year and a half. The smart move would be to move him ASAP (especially for someone who tends to get dinged up bi-monthly.)

They found themselves in a similar situation with DeBrincat last summer. They'll do better here since there isn't a high QO that they have to worry about this summer (just the extra year at very reasonable money, so more potential suitors) but it won't be a 1st and 2 2nds. They gave up a 7OA, 38OA and another pick for DeBrincat. They got back a warm body, a meh prospect and a conditional 1st when they moved him.

 

[bleedblue94]

We can’t be one playoff injury away from Zac Jones. Non-starter

I would not be surprised if they go for 2 d men and one forward at the deadline. A 3rd pair guy to hold as the 7d , and another guy that you don't plan to use but that can eat 10 mins in an emergency.

 

[mas0764]

I think Trouba’s value is that he can play major minutes against the best players in the league, in a role where he needs to hit, block shots and break up plays. No one else on the team has that ability.

Apparently Trouba doesn't have that ability.

Saying he "can do it," while posting bottom of the league analytics isn't much of an argument for keeping him doing it.

In theory you or I can do it, if we don't care about the results being positive.

Trouba’s analytics are never going to look good because of this.

Other players who are getting paid like #1 defensemen can do it without garbage analytics.

And is he overpaid? Yes. But if he gets moved after the season and we don’t replace him with another player who can play those minutes, we’re going to be wishing he was still around. Because even the biggest optimist on Schneider can’t say he looks ready for that role.

I am relatively confident Schneider can do what Trouba does now while posting awful analytics like Trouba does.

That being said, Trouba has been awful recently.

He's been truly awful recently versus just mediocre to lousy in past seasons. But "good," is something Trouba has literally never been on defense for the NY Rangers.

Is that because he just had his first kid? I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, because he was playing well to start the season when we were 20-4.

Lindgren is the player who you love when your team is an underdog, but when the competition and expectations jump up a level, he’s clearly overmatched. We need a short and long term addition to the top 4. Look how the Manson and McDonagh trades solidified recent cup winners.

Lindgren has actually played commendable defense for years, versus Trouba who never has.

The person you want to give the benefit of the doubt to is backwards here.

 

[effen]

The inspired messageboard poster uses Miller to dump Goodrows contract to get back Chychrun and whatever to balance it out.

Everyone wins. Even Trouba.

 

[mas0764]

No it doesn’t. Last I checked teams played with at least six dman a game. You can have more than “top pairing guy”

In fact you kinda have to.

 

[duhmetreE]

View attachment 805615


It fits with these contracts handed out. That may be a tad high for Gustafsson and I traded Lindgren for Pinto but if they go for picks/prospects in lieu of Pinto than they could have space to go out and sign a veteran UFA for less and fill that spot. This is assuming a $4m cap increase

That’s spreading it real thin. No extra forward or defenseman.

Cuylle and Othmann are probably your 3rd line wingers. Berard or Sykora on the 4th ( or another bargain bin signing )

Gus is probably not getting signed if we give a big contract like that.

 

[hardnosed]

We can’t be one playoff injury away from Zac Jones. Non-starter

Yea. Having Jones and Jones only, because there's absolutely nobody in Hartford, is really a huge failing on Drury's part. We will add a defenseman, at least for depth, at the deadline.

 

[McRanger92]

Apparently Trouba doesn't have that ability.

Saying he "can do it," while posting bottom of the league analytics isn't much of an argument for keeping him doing it.

In theory you or I can do it, if we don't care about the results being positive.



Other players who are getting paid like #1 defensemen can do it without garbage analytics.



I am relatively confident Schneider can do what Trouba does now while posting awful analytics like Trouba does.



He's been truly awful recently versus just mediocre to lousy in past seasons. But "good," is something Trouba has literally never been on defense for the NY Rangers.





Lindgren has actually played commendable defense for years, versus Trouba who never has.

The person you want to give the benefit of the doubt to is backwards here.

The only people who are paying guys based on their analytics are the fans. Trouba is playing that role for the top team in the metro so you are I can’t do it. You have an ax to grind against the guy, which is fine. Like many here I’ve changed my mind on Lindgren recently because it’s a bad move now and later to continue playing him in the top 4. Lest we have another situation where an important player has a bad contract, so we hate him, like Trouba. I just don’t view the game through that lens. He’ll be gone in a couple years anyway

 

[zlev]

I think Trouba’s value is that he can play major minutes against the best players in the league, in a role where he needs to hit, block shots and break up plays.

no. he cannot do this. he absolutely blows at it. do you even watch the games? he gets clobbered by anyone with talent. he cannot defend for shit against top 9 forwards. he's blocking shots because he cannot get the puck out of the zone to save his life. you dont need any analytics to realize that Trouba is a bad defender.

You have an ax to grind against the guy, which is fine.

i hate this. this is the worst argument. we have an ax to grind because he sucks. if he was good i would like him.

 

[McRanger92]

Yea. Having Jones and Jones only, because there's absolutely nobody in Hartford, is really a huge failing on Drury's part. We will add a defenseman, at least for depth, at the deadline.

Well I think Drury was hoping Jones would run with an opportunity in preseason but Gus crushed him. He is being paid like a #7. Robertson’s slow development has hurt too. I’m optimistic on Scanlin but none of these guys are real options now. Defense is our top need by a wide margin. I always laugh at guys like Mercogliano saying we need a top line winger

 

[NYR Viper]

Yea. Having Jones and Jones only, because there's absolutely nobody in Hartford, is really a huge failing on Drury's part. We will add a defenseman, at least for depth, at the deadline.

Conor Mackey played 20 games for Arizona last year. The team had Harpur down there as well and they lost Emberson on waivers to start the season. I realize these aren't exactly big names but Drury actually compiled some decent depth to start this season. Losing Harpur and Emberson to start the year really hurt the teams depth.

That’s spreading it real thin. No extra forward or defenseman.

Cuylle and Othmann are probably your 3rd line wingers. Berard or Sykora on the 4th ( or another bargain bin signing )

Gus is probably not getting signed if we give a big contract like that.

It's thin, yes, and perhaps guys like Pinto and Gustafsson take $250k less each, what I wanted to show is that it can fit.

 

[SA16]

Conor Mackey played 20 games for Arizona last year. The team had Harpur down there as well and they lost Emberson on waivers to start the season. I realize these aren't exactly big names but Drury actually compiled some decent depth to start this season. Losing Harpur and Emberson to start the year really hurt the teams depth.



It's thin, yes, and perhaps guys like Pinto and Gustafsson take $250k less each, what I wanted to show is that it can fit.

One could easily argue that losing Harpur helped the team in case of injury since he is likely significantly worse than any other option they could call up. Mackey is awful too. These guys are not viable depth. They're just guys who have played NHL games in the past. If someone got hurt I would far rather see Robertson who might be good or might be bad, or trade for a potentially competent bottom pair guy, than play someone I know for certain is way below average.

 

[hardnosed]

Well I think Drury was hoping Jones would run with an opportunity in preseason but Gus crushed him. He is being paid like a #7. Robertson’s slow development has hurt too. I’m optimistic on Scanlin but none of these guys are real options now. Defense is our top need by a wide margin. I always laugh at guys like Mercogliano saying we need a top line winger

Agreed. Gus was competition for Jones. Any competition for Jones, seems to win out. Jones is not an NHL player. He needs to go in a trade instead of us trading a draft pick

 

[Machinehead]

Trouba only plays with Miller 5v5 so I’m confused by how he’s giving up so many more chances. He plays with Lindgren on the PP, so that would make complete sense that they are bleeding chances. Not saying you’re wrong but these advanced stats always leaving me with more questions than answers.

The lines get scrambled during on the fly changes. It doesn't seem like much but it adds up.

Jimmy Vesey has a goal this year assisted by Blake Wheeler. They play the same position.

Trouba has managed to tally up 126 5v5 minutes without Miller. Two whole games. In that time he's giving up 73.14 shot attempts per 60 and 3.49 xG against per 60. Those are video game numbers.

 

[bbny]

No it doesn’t. Last I checked teams played with at least six dman a game. You can have more than “top pairing guy”

yeah, I do not see that at all. If anything this helps KAM blossom, probably playing with Fox.

you really need a strong top4 to compete for a cup. We're not there.

Chychrun has one more year left before UFA. An extension would be top pairing large. The cost to acquire will be close to top pairing large. What I'm reading is KAM up on the top pair with Fox and you've paid an exorbitant amount for a top pairing guy to underutilize him as a 2nd pairing guy. There's other holes to fill. LD doesn't need to be so stacked. There's a cap and forward talent matters more.

 

[hardnosed]

The lines get scrambled during on the fly changes. It doesn't seem like much but it adds up.

Jimmy Vesey has a goal this year assisted by Blake Wheeler. They play the same position.

Trouba has managed to tally up 126 5v5 minutes without Miller. Two whole games. In that time he's giving up 73.14 shot attempts per 60 and 3.49 xG against per 60. Those are video game numbers.

I'll argue, not to defend Trouba, lol, that a lot of those 126 minutes are when we are turtling late when we are protecting a lead. We did have a long string where we were winning games by a goal or two.

 

[McRanger92]

The lines get scrambled during on the fly changes. It doesn't seem like much but it adds up.

Jimmy Vesey has a goal this year assisted by Blake Wheeler. They play the same position.

Trouba has managed to tally up 126 5v5 minutes without Miller. Two whole games. In that time he's giving up 73.14 shot attempts per 60 and 3.49 xG against per 60. Those are video game numbers.

Who is Trouba playing with in the non-Miller minutes? I’m not trying to be facetious, just trying to know the whole context. Although this is why I’ve never seen these advanced stats as gospel. They tell you about as much of the whole story as counting stats and overall team results do.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yeah I mean I don’t agree with Larry that we need to bring in Luke Schenn I just want another top 4 guy. I also think everyone’s underlying numbers would look better if we made the Miller/Fox pair we’ve all been clamoring for. Trouba isn’t a bad player. I know what the numbers say but watching the game at the Garden Tuesday confirmed what I’d been thinking for awhile. Miller hurts Trouba’s game. Miller gets beat too much below the hashmarks and is bad on breakouts. He’s better in the O zone when he has the puck but he can’t get shot through and when you have them blocked at the blue line it puts the pairing in chaotic positions going the other way.

I guess you missed all of the turnovers Trouba had in front of his own net in that game. Miller wasn't good but Trouba was a creator of his own chaos on Tuesday and has been so for most of this season.

He also had a terrible pinch and turnover before Miller ended up taking his penalty and then got dangled and lost his guy before Lindgren got sucked into and alternate universe on the PK where Seattle scored their 2nd goal.

He's the problem on that pair. People will point out the rare occasion where someone gets behind Miller on the rush but ignore that he doesn't often get tried because teams basically have a free entry when trying Trouba since he leaves the biggest gaps imaginable.

He hits people and certainly plays with a ton of passion but thats really all he's bringing to the table right now.

Same goes for Lindgren, except he does it with even worse offense and getting blown the f*** up.