Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part III: Day by Day

[silverfish]

From what I'm told 90% of my posts are nonsense.

Probably means you're on to something.

 

[Levitate]

If you really want to know the reason Gostisbehre was a huge minus is because his team shot 4.8% (lowest by far for Phi) while he was on the ice at even strength - he got essentially 0 PK time which is a freeroll to add pluses, he led the team in PP time which is a reverse freeroll to add negatives, he was most likely rarely on the ice at ends of games when leading with the other team having an empty net, and he was probably always on the ice when trailing at the end of games with the flyers having an empty net (not sure where to look up EN stats though).

Adjust for the context and the use discrepancy probably entirely goes away.

Good thoughts but the PK thing seems a bit pointless to consider, Philly had 4 SHG last season and being generous and thinking maybe he would be on for half of them only gives a net + of 2.

e: I think a very high or a very low +/- carries some significance at a very high level but for the most part it's not really worth trying to compare players with it or using it to make a precise point

 

[SA16]

Good thoughts but the PK thing seems a bit pointless to consider, Philly had 4 SHG last season and being generous and thinking maybe he would be on for half of them only gives a net + of 2.

Other way around. He was on the ice for 4 SHG against so that's a -4. I would assume he was on the ice for 0 SHG for considering he got 5 total minutes 4v5 time all year.

Empty nets I think would have a larger effect but I don't know where to find it and can't do it in 3 minutes until lunch break ends haha. Silverfish you know where to look this up? Not sure where to get it without Corsica at the moment.

Thirty One has previously posted breakdowns of this stuff for the Rangers (with Yandle) and it makes an absolutely massive difference.

 

[TheTakedown]

https://sports.yahoo.com/ny-rangers-last-best-shot-trending-topics-133736689.html

Terrible writer. Look at this part:

But Raanta’s gone now, traded to Arizona, and replaced with Ondrej Pavelec, who’s a total wildcard in the crease. For some time now, the Rangers have been blessed with strong backup goaltending, but almost all of it was developed in-house. This is the first time in quite a while Lundqvist’s backup will be a UFA pickup, and if Mason does what Marty Biron did in the lockout-shortened season (.917) then that’s good for a backup. But that was also back when Lundqvist played the massive bulk of the Rangers’ minutes.

First he says Pavelec is a wild card, which I could understand, but this is purely opinion, he's not using stats to back his argument up.

Then he says all of it was developed in house, meanwhile Raanta, who he is *****ing about us losing, was a trade from Chicago just last year.

Then he Randomly tosses in Steve Mason's Name as a comparable to Marty Biron...

I am sure it's a mistake, but really man? You are a JOURNALIST... Proofreading is your job

 

[Levitate]

Other way around. He was on the ice for 4 SHG against so that's a -4. I would assume he was on the ice for 0 SHG for considering he got 5 total minutes 4v5 time all year.

Empty nets I think would have a larger effect but I don't know where to find it and can't do it in 3 minutes until lunch break ends haha.

According to the NHL's stat site the Flyers had 4 SHG for. I didn't look up how many they had against since I was mainly just interested in their PKing and not the PP

e: it says they had 9 SHG against

 

[SA16]

According to the NHL's stat site the Flyers had 4 SHG for. I didn't look up how many they had against since I was mainly just interested in their PKing and not the PP

e: it says they had 9 SHG against

Gostisbehre was on the ice for 0 SHG scored for the Flyers and 4 allowed by the Flyers. -4 due to coaching deployment and the way the +/- stat is tracked by the league.

 

[silverfish]

Other way around. He was on the ice for 4 SHG against so that's a -4. I would assume he was on the ice for 0 SHG for considering he got 5 total minutes 4v5 time all year.

Empty nets I think would have a larger effect but I don't know where to find it and can't do it in 3 minutes until lunch break ends haha. Silverfish you know where to look this up? Not sure where to get it without Corsica at the moment.

Thirty One has previously posted breakdowns of this stuff for the Rangers (with Yandle) and it makes an absolutely massive difference.

Nope :/

I think most of the #fancystat sites throw out 5v6 or 6v5 play.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Since we already threw Bennett Bozak, and RNH out there, who are other comparable centers that could be had in a trade to be a 2C/3C tweener?

 

[silverfish]

Since we already threw Bennett Bozak, and RNH out there, who are other comparable centers that could be had in a trade to be a 2C/3C tweener?

Bryan Little at the deadline

 

[Boruto]

I don't even care if they give Zib $6M X 4 at this point. I just want the second buyout window to open.

 

[eco's bones]

HFNYR: "We need to find a prospect who can be the 'Next Shattenkirk' Instead of handing out a big contract to Shattenkirk!!!11!!"

Also HFNYR: "DeAngelo can hardly play who cares if he's 21 and has upside "

I was talking about Gelinas (not DeAngelo) in that post last night and got the team wrong--that was an accident and I think if you go back and check most people were able to sort that out. Maybe you should take another look.

 

[Boruto]

Bryan Little at the deadline

sounds incredibly expensive.

 

[silverfish]

sounds incredibly expensive.

Sounds like a major move that takes the Rangers from pretender to contender.

 

[Boruto]

Sounds like a major move that takes the Rangers from pretender to contender.

better than Eric Staal if the price is about the same but still expensive.

 

[silverfish]

better than Eric Staal if the price is about the same but still expensive.

I'd blow the prospect pool to smithereens if we could get Wheeler with him

 

[Mac n Gs]

Bryan Little at the deadline

Why would the Jets trade him though? I'm expecting they'll be contending with the goalie switch and how ****ing loaded their offense is

 

[silverfish]

Why would the Jets trade him though? I'm expecting they'll be contending with the goalie switch and how ****ing loaded their offense is

Right. On the assumption that the Jets aren't quite there yet this year. Little strikes me as a guy who would move at the deadline and then just re-sign there as UFA.

 

[eco's bones]

Gostisbehre was on the ice for 0 SHG scored for the Flyers and 4 allowed by the Flyers. -4 due to coaching deployment and the way the +/- stat is tracked by the league.

Flyers coaching staff scratches Gostisbehere for defensive issues--Gostisbehere admits he has defensive issues so your conclusion is he should be killing penalties and/or someone else should play the power play instead of him so he can improve his +/-?

The thing about Gostisbehere is he's good at creating offense but not so good at playing defense. I don't think that that's such a hard concept to get your head around. The Rangers are pretty much looking at the same deal with DeAngelo and it's not unusual at all for young offensive minded defenseman to have defensive issues.

 

[Cassano]

I agree but only to an extent. I think the argument is somewhat flawed that you can only win with elite centers. I think if you have the right players you can win. It doesn't necessarily have to be in the form of center depth.

You mean to tell me if this team had Patrik Laine, Jamie Benn, Phil Kessel and Nikita Kucherov, but with its current center depth and defense that it couldn't win a cup?

Benn Zibanejad Kucherov
Kreider Hayes Laine
Zuccarello Miller Kessel
Grabner Desharnais Fast

McDonagh Shattenkirk
Skjei Smith
Bereglazov DeAngelo

I really don't understand how a team with elite depth on the wings can't compete with a team that has elite depth down the middle but is weak on the wings. There is no blueprint for a cup champion. Good teams find ways to utilize their talent to the best of its ability. Maybe our team wasn't successful for a number of reasons but Stepan as the first line center wasn't one of them. They were a fortuitous bounce and a goalie interference call away from going back to the Garden up 2-0. It didn't fall in their favor. It happens. It's very hard to win a cup. It might be another 30 years before we win another or it could happen next season.

This scenario is incredibly unrealistic. I can't even recall the last cup winner that had poor center depth or a lack of a #1C. It is the most important position in hockey imo.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Right. On the assumption that the Jets aren't quite there yet this year. Little strikes me as a guy who would move at the deadline and then just re-sign there as UFA.

Ah, gotcha. I meant now though, ya know with instant gratification and whatnot.

 

[silverfish]

Ah, gotcha. I meant now though, ya know with instant gratification and whatnot.

Wonder if Derek Stepan is available. ADA and LA for him?

 

[Levitate]

Gostisbehre was on the ice for 0 SHG scored for the Flyers and 4 allowed by the Flyers. -4 due to coaching deployment and the way the +/- stat is tracked by the league.

I know that why are you arguing with me, do you not get what my point was

e: a swing of + or - 4 over the course of the season isn't much if you're looking at a player at the extremes of either end, is basically what I'm saying. If he PK'd it's unlikely he would have been on the ice for all the SHG's for just like he wasn't ton the ice for all the SHG's against so you're maybe looking at a difference of -2 due to special teams over the season, which in my mind isn't worth much worrying about especially considering plus minus in general is a pretty blah stat and as I mentioned only vaguely useful looking at it from a high level of this guy is either really good at being on the ice for goals scored or really bad at being on the ice for goals scored so now let's look deeper into why that's the case.

 

[TheTakedown]

I was talking about Gelinas (not DeAngelo) in that post last night and got the team wrong--that was an accident and I think if you go back and check most people were able to sort that out. Maybe you should take another look.

In that case, my mistake. You had said Arizona so I figured DeAngelo...

Still, this is what most people have been doing here

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

He would probably never want to come back after how he was treated, but I wouldn't be opposed to having Eric Staal back.

If he plays like he did last year, he would be exactly what the team needs

I think Machinehead was the first one I saw say this a couple weeks ago

 

[Mac n Gs]

Wonder if Derek Stepan is available. ADA and LA for him?

No. He's ancient, can't skate, doesn't scare any other teams offensively, and sucks at faceoffs. $6.5 with a NTC. PASS.