Speculation: Roster Building Thread: New Season Edition

[Levitate]

How is Braden Schneider playing

To me still both good and bad. You see the promise of a solid defender who can jump into the play and does a lot of things you need, but he gets caught overreacting or chasing/getting drawn out of position. Needs to keep working on that. On Zegras' goal he let himself get pulled out of position following the guy with the puck instead of taking care of his side of the ice where Zegras skated right past him. He maybe thought the forward had Zegras but felt like he just kinda kept sliding over and reaching and sliding over and then his side of the ice is wide open for an easy pass and scoring chance

 

[Ola]

Bettman now saying the cap is likely to increase by 4 million next season. Glad I never wasted any mental energy debating the cap crunch....

This is huge, but not the least surprising. Nothing pay off debt like inflation. 10% inflation, the NHL has pricing power, it’s nothing really. The new normal for the NHL have been very small growth due to events like the financial crash, the crashing loonie, the pandemic and now this whole issue almost tagging into each other — all while there have been record low inflation.

If the NHL continues having like a 5% underlying growth and the inflation is say 5% for a few years, the cap will get to 120m in “no time” (by 27/28). I am of course not calling that — just showing how quiet modest assumptions pan out if there actually is inflation in the economy like there always have been, up until the last decade and a half.

The inflation that already is in the bank, a long with the growth coming from Seattle plus the underlying growth of the NHL eats up a full year of stagnant cap — easily. The predictions wasn’t one more summer with stagnant cap, it was two, and now Bettman is saying that the mentioned could eat up two years of stagnant cap. It speaks for itself what this will mean to the cap in the summer of 24’ if inflation does not settle down. Ball park guesstimate must be 92m on the conservative side and I can’t see how it could come in under 90m.

This really changes the landscape for Drury and turns moves that I thought was questionable, into very good moves. Like the Trocheck signing. Now we should just lock up some kids we got on long term deals. Because salaries will of course raise as fast, actually even faster, than the cap.

 

[McRanger92]

To me still both good and bad. You see the promise of a solid defender who can jump into the play and does a lot of things you need, but he gets caught overreacting or chasing/getting drawn out of position. Needs to keep working on that. On Zegras' goal he let himself get pulled out of position following the guy with the puck instead of taking care of his side of the ice where Zegras skated right past him. He maybe thought the forward had Zegras but felt like he just kinda kept sliding over and reaching and sliding over and then his side of the ice is wide open for an easy pass and scoring chance

Agree with this. He’s still pretty raw but the talent is there and he’s not a liability. Am I the only one who has noticed how much bigger he is this year? Looks like he added an inch and 15 pounds.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Only a Sith speaks in absolutes

That statement is an absolute

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Just for clarification. I don't have anything against Trocheck. He's a good player. Not great. But good. And im of the strong belief that this team won't win a Cup until Laf and Kakko are the guys and the sooner they are they better. And I want the same thing everyone else wants: winning. But as I said, I don't believe it's going to happen until our two cornerstone picks are the guys leading the way. I kind of hope I'm wrong. But until they're the ones the team leans on and guys like Zib, Panarin, and Kreids are looked at as support, I don't think it's going to happen. I look around the league and at history. That's how it works nearly all the time. Doesn't make Zib, Panarin, etc any less important. Look at Chicago. As good as Hossa was he was support for Kane and Toews.

Totally disagree with this thinking. Mika, Panarin, Kreider, Fox, and Shesty are still the players that stir the drink and they can absolutely win a cup if Laf, Kakko, Chytil, Miller continue to progress. If Laf and Kakko are solid 60 point players this year and continue to grow they can win a cup without the kids being "the" guys.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

That statement is an absolute

Mind = blown. Seriously.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

The team will want a move for a good 2 way 3rd line winger that can play multiple forward spots. Maybe a 4th line forward depending on injuries. And a reliable bottom pair defenseman for injuries.

Kreider Zib Kakko
Panarin Trocheck Laf
Blais Chytil _____
Vesey Goodrow _____
Carpenter/Reaves/Hunt


Pavelski, Horvat, Nick Ritchie, Barbashev, Dadanov, and maybe Paul Byron are names to keep an eye on as UFA rentals on teams that could be out of it

Please keep in mind the available cap space that we will have. I believe its only about 4m

 

[mas0764]

I love when you speak in absolutes as if you know the future and better than an NHL organization.

So if someone says “it is worth it” that’s not speaking in absolutes?

It’s called a debate, we are stating our positions.

 

[Synergy27]

So if someone says “it is worth it” that’s not speaking in absolutes?

It’s called a debate, we are stating our positions.

I think he’s referring to the probabilistic nature of the entire transaction.

What if you trade a top 8 pick who turns into an all star but the player you received in return helped you win the Cup? Is it worth it?

You’d probably argue “no” because you value the increased odds of multiple Cups down the line.

What if you trade the pick that would have been Lias Andersson and you lose in the SCF? Worth it?

The only scenario that’s clearly not worth it is trading a future all star for an early playoff flameout.

None of these outcomes are guaranteed. There are no absolutes when it comes to this stuff.

 

[mas0764]

I think he’s referring to the probabilistic nature of the entire transaction.

What if you trade a top 8 pick who turns into an all star but the player you received in return helped you win the Cup? Is it worth it?

You’d probably argue “no” because you value the increased odds of multiple Cups down the line.

What if you trade the pick that would have been Lias Andersson and you lose in the SCF? Worth it?

The only scenario that’s clearly not worth it is trading a future all star for an early playoff flameout.

None of these outcomes are guaranteed. There are no absolutes when it comes to this stuff.

There are percentages of players panning out at certain picks versus percentages of rentals winning Cups.

Beyond those things, which are certainties, it’s preference. Ie, “it’s worth it,” vs “it’s not worth it.”

Every contingency has high and low possibilities.

But I don’t know what he’s talking about because no one has framed things here any different than I have.

 

[Off Sides]

I think he’s referring to the probabilistic nature of the entire transaction.

What if you trade a top 8 pick who turns into an all star but the player you received in return helped you win the Cup? Is it worth it?

You’d probably argue “no” because you value the increased odds of multiple Cups down the line.

What if you trade the pick that would have been Lias Andersson and you lose in the SCF? Worth it?

The only scenario that’s clearly not worth it is trading a future all star for an early playoff flameout.

None of these outcomes are guaranteed. There are no absolutes when it comes to this stuff.

Good post,

I'm not so sure trading at the deadline can put a team over the top so to speak. I think it mostly guards against injury. Like a decent player is injured, and the team has a decent one to insert instead of a poor player replacement kind of thing.

On the other side, of course there is no guarantee any draftee will change the future. However the large majority of good players in the league were drafted, usually pretty early in the draft, 1st round, often even early-mid in the 1st round. I guess, imagine if they Rangers drafted a Perry and Getzlaf in the same draft, unlikely yet maybe just one of them would really change their future. Bolster the team to a multi Cup future.

I think it takes both insights, the right choices for that particular year, yet also an eye on the future. Most Cup teams took a while to win it. Some teams less so, if they drafted elite talent right off the bat for two years straight or whatever, yet the rest had to build their organization strength to the point they eventually won it.

I lean towards the draft, free cheap talent if they get it right, yet I also do not think that it always works out for a multitude or reasons.

 

[bobbop]

How is Braden Schneider playing

Like a 20 year old defenseman.

Inconsistent but outstanding flashes

 

[GENESISPuck94]

You are being rightly called out by others for how delusional this is. Laf and Kakko look great and they will still improve. Even then, the chances of them being as dominant and effective, like on the scoresheet, as Zib and Panarin, are still pretty remote.

The time to win is now while we have these elite players in their prime. Having these amazing young kids as secondary players is how you win.

I could care less who thinks it's delusional. We'll see if they win the Cup before then or at all. Fact is no one knows shit until it happens. But look at recent history in the league. No teams are winning Cups without their top picks developing into the players that lead them to Cups. Show me a team that did it and I'll show you an outlier. St. Louis is the closest thing to an outlier. And they still had top picks leading the way. You'd have to go back to the 98-99 Dallas Stars to find a team that won the Cup with a team comprised of leaders not their own high draft picks. Still they had Modano. The Rangers are going to be the one to buck a 2 decade long trend. OK. I hope I'm wrong, I really do.

 

[huerter]

You don't want them leading the way. You want them artificially inflated (at the expense of the team). Not cised.

 

[horner]

Like a 20 year old defenseman.

Inconsistent but outstanding flashes

Thanks

 

[Flan the incredible]

I could care less who thinks it's delusional. We'll see if they win the Cup before then or at all. Fact is no one knows shit until it happens. But look at recent history in the league. No teams are winning Cups without their top picks developing into the players that lead them to Cups. Show me a team that did it and I'll show you an outlier. St. Louis is the closest thing to an outlier. And they still had top picks leading the way. You'd have to go back to the 98-99 Dallas Stars to find a team that won the Cup with a team comprised of leaders not their own high draft picks. Still they had Modano. The Rangers are going to be the one to buck a 2 decade long trend. OK. I hope I'm wrong, I really do.

I didn't read the comments leading up to this one but this comment doesn't make sense. Since 2009 only one 1st and two 2nd overall picks have won a cup and two of the three were on the same team and just last year. If you want to expand it to homegrown talent then I would point to Shesty, KAM and Kreider as being huge contributors. Not sure what your point was but this rebuttal doesn't make sense.

 

[Savant]

How is Braden Schneider playing

Like the teams 5th best dman. Which is fine.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

how come we don't play again until thursday, and then not till sunday after that? This is bullshit the NHL is trying to cool us off!

 

[RangersFan1994]

Any Tanner Jeanott power forward types as UDFA? he is one of the most underrated forwards in the league.

 

[Lgrsean]

I didn't read the comments leading up to this one but this comment doesn't make sense. Since 2009 only one 1st and two 2nd overall picks have won a cup and two of the three were on the same team and just last year. If you want to expand it to homegrown talent then I would point to Shesty, KAM and Kreider as being huge contributors. Not sure what your point was but this rebuttal doesn't make sense.

I agree with you Fox and Igor just won the Norris and vezina and have spent their whole young nhl careers as rangers. why would it matter that they weren’t high draft picks when competing for a cup?

 

[TominNC]

Totally disagree with this thinking. Mika, Panarin, Kreider, Fox, and Shesty are still the players that stir the drink and they can absolutely win a cup if Laf, Kakko, Chytil, Miller continue to progress. If Laf and Kakko are solid 60 point players this year and continue to grow they can win a cup without the kids being "the" guys.

I would think the idea is to win a cup before the kids are main contributors then be able to go for more when the become main contributors

 

[TheDirtyH]

Fact is no one knows shit until it happens. But look at recent history in the league. No teams are winning Cups without their top picks developing into the players that lead them to Cups. Show me a team that did it and I'll show you an outlier.

I think this sums up why people don't like engaging with this conversation.

1) no one knows anything until it's passed (including yourself presumably)
2) no teams have done x, but if one has, it actually hasn't

There's not much to work with there, conversationally.

...

Personally, I find models like this really limited. Correlation/Causation. Just because you can draw lines of similarities between championship teams doesn't mean that isolated element has more significance on the outcome as any other you could draw on. And as far as homegrown talent, Zibanejad may not be a rangers draftee but he's been here since he was what 22? Kreider is a rangers pick. As is our most important player, Shesterkin. Our top d pairing has played with us their whole careers. And now we also have 2 top 6 wingers and a 3C who are rangers draft picks...

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Just for clarification. I don't have anything against Trocheck. He's a good player. Not great. But good. And im of the strong belief that this team won't win a Cup until Laf and Kakko are the guys and the sooner they are they better. And I want the same thing everyone else wants: winning. But as I said, I don't believe it's going to happen until our two cornerstone picks are the guys leading the way. I kind of hope I'm wrong. But until they're the ones the team leans on and guys like Zib, Panarin, and Kreids are looked at as support, I don't think it's going to happen. I look around the league and at history. That's how it works nearly all the time. Doesn't make Zib, Panarin, etc any less important. Look at Chicago. As good as Hossa was he was support for Kane and Toews.

There's a strong chance that neither Lafreniere nor Kakko will ever be as good as Panarin and Mika this year, much less this season.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I could care less who thinks it's delusional. We'll see if they win the Cup before then or at all. Fact is no one knows shit until it happens. But look at recent history in the league. No teams are winning Cups without their top picks developing into the players that lead them to Cups. Show me a team that did it and I'll show you an outlier. St. Louis is the closest thing to an outlier. And they still had top picks leading the way. You'd have to go back to the 98-99 Dallas Stars to find a team that won the Cup with a team comprised of leaders not their own high draft picks. Still they had Modano. The Rangers are going to be the one to buck a 2 decade long trend. OK. I hope I'm wrong, I really do.

These takes are so utterly irrational that they hurt my head. Who the f*** cares if our best players are our top picks or another team's top pick and an undrafted free agent both of whom are arguably top 10-15 players in the world? This post is so utterly devoid of logic that I can't believe it's not only serious but also something you've repeated multiple times.

 

[Synergy27]

I could care less who thinks it's delusional. We'll see if they win the Cup before then or at all. Fact is no one knows shit until it happens. But look at recent history in the league. No teams are winning Cups without their top picks developing into the players that lead them to Cups. Show me a team that did it and I'll show you an outlier. St. Louis is the closest thing to an outlier. And they still had top picks leading the way. You'd have to go back to the 98-99 Dallas Stars to find a team that won the Cup with a team comprised of leaders not their own high draft picks. Still they had Modano. The Rangers are going to be the one to buck a 2 decade long trend. OK. I hope I'm wrong, I really do.

You’re again getting rightly crushed for this but I’ll add on.

You know what else doesn’t happen?:

Teams don’t trade recent top 6 picks, which would probably be top 3 picks in a redraft, PLUS a second rounder, for an aging veteran. Seriously, it’s a miracle that we acquired Zibanejad when we did. A miracle. He’s a monster.

Teams don’t trade a soon to be Norris Trophy winner for two second round picks.

The BEST winger in the league becomes a free agent and takes less money to play on your team.

Your fourth round draft pick goalie wins the Vezina at 25 years old.

You are anchored to draft position so deeply that you are unable to see how absurdly fortunate this organization has been with its acquisitions over the past few years. You don’t seem to understand how good this team is. If everything breaks perfectly for Laf and Kakko, the team at that time is likely not as good as this one given that all of these other elite pieces will have aged out or priced themselves out.

Prime, top of the most optimistic development curve Laf and Kakko are going to be really good players but still probably not as good as Zib and Panarin are right now. Their draft position is meaningless at this point.