Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVIII: At part 58, I am out of titles.

[GAGLine]

The return, aside from any actual assets, is cap space. The “cap space asset” is better obtained by trading players that we don’t view as having a long term future here anyway (and don’t have a perceived high market value, like Kreider), instead of buying players out and hurting yourself done the road.

What’s the market value in an ideal world for namestnikov / strome? Maybe a 3rd rounder or so each? If they were to each get traded for a 5th rounder instead so as to sign the remainder of our RFAs and not buyout anyone, and people want to complain about that, then go ahead.

The only move Gorton really has any pressure to figure out is with respect to Kreider. And that’s pressure with respect to the return, not the timing. Everything else consists of issues that will all be sorted out in due course.

You assume that would be the price, but fast forward to September. We are still over the cap and have to clear space. Buyouts are no longer an option, so other teams are holding us over a barrel. Instead of getting a 5th for Namestnikov, we are now giving up a 2nd for some other team to take him. Is that what you want? I'm sure you'll say it won't happen, but Toronto just paid a 1st rounder to dump Marleau. Other teams have had pay to dump contracts. That's not a situation we want to be in.

If no one is traded by the time the buyout window opens, there will be buyouts.

 

[Leetch3]

No doubt that the buyout is the last resort option, but if they're not 100% for sure below the cap by the time the buyout window opens, I believe they'll pull the trigger on a buyout simply to guarantee they'll be able to get there.

also probably why you won't hear contracts for trouba or buch announced much before their hearing dates even if the deal is in place to buy as much time as they can on that decision.

 

[Tawnos]

also probably why you won't hear contracts for trouba or buch announced much before their hearing dates even if the deal is in place to buy as much time as they can on that decision.

I'd really like to see DeAngelo and Lemieux contracts before then, but it'd be understandable if they were waiting until after.

 

[TheBPA]

You assume that would be the price, but fast forward to September. We are still over the cap and have to clear space. Buyouts are no longer an option, so other teams are holding us over a barrel. Instead of getting a 5th for Namestnikov, we are now giving up a 2nd for some other team to take him. Is that what you want? I'm sure you'll say it won't happen, but Toronto just paid a 1st rounder to dump Marleau. Other teams have had pay to dump contracts. That's not a situation we want to be in.

If no one is traded by the time the buyout window opens, there will be buyouts.

Marleau is useless, made over $6m and is like 37.

None of those things are similar to strome or namestnikov.

 

[Leetch3]

I'd really like to see DeAngelo and Lemieux contracts before then, but it'd be understandable if they were waiting until after.

I think you'd like to get those 2 signed as soon as you can so you know what you are dealing with and the signing doesn't trigger anything...but there might still be a hold up for other moves, how much space you clear will determine if you need those guys to sign the QO, can bridge them or even look to sign them longer.

 

[aufheben]

We will see. You really shouldn't be talking so confidently.

Like I said in my edit... trading Namestnikov and Strome saves you ~$5.6m in cap space. More likely, that number is closer to $5.25m in cap space since their replacements will be Kakko and Kravtsov on a max ELCs. Is $13.25m enough to sign all 4 RFAs? More to the point... is $5.25m enough to sign Buchnevich, DeAngelo, and Lemieux? It'll be tight. A buyout gives them some breathing room, in addition to potentially preventing us from having to defer bonuses to the 20-21 cap. That would be dead space too.

To be fair, Gorton has given us fews reasons to not be confident. He’s traded with, I don’t remember the exact number from the draft, at least half the teams in the league, on multiple occasions with 5-6 teams; some of those teams have been traded with three times, not including the deal with Edmonton at the draft that didn’t get done because everyone was spooked. And to be honest I’m not 100% clear on the apparent gravity of the situation; I’m seeing a lot of stuff about trade returns for Namestnikov and Strome.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Marleau is useless, made over $6m and is like 37.

None of those things are similar to strome or namestnikov.

Marelau was also a 35+ contract with a full NTC.

 

[Tawnos]

To be fair, Gorton has given us no reasons not to be confident. He’s traded with, I don’t remember the exact number from the draft, at least half the teams in the league, on multiple occasions with 5-6 teams; some of those teams have been traded with three times. Not included the deal with Edmonton at the draft that didn’t get done because everyone was spooked. And to be honest I’m not 100% clear on the gravity of the situation; I’m seeing a lot of concern over stuff like trade returns for Namestnikov and Strome.

My problem is that I'm not convinced trading Namestnikov and Strome is enough to get us under the cap.

 

[GAGLine]

Marleau is useless, made over $6m and is like 37.

None of those things are similar to strome or namestnikov.

That doesn't change the fact that we will have zero leverage in any negotiation if we don't trade or buy anyone out by August 3rd. If you don't think that creates pressure for Gorton, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Thirty One]

Why will it help him? What will he Learn at this point playing against scrubs?

Should we put all of our prospects in the AHL until they dominate down there?

Well that league of scrubs had 185 players who put up a Pts/GP pace greater than Andersson's in at least as many games.

I'm not saying he should play in Hartford. I hope he doesn't. But the option shouldn't be dismissed out of hand like he has outgrown the league and has nothing to learn from those peasants.

 

[Ola]

We will see. You really shouldn't be talking so confidently.

Like I said in my edit... trading Namestnikov and Strome saves you ~$5.6m in cap space. More likely, that number is closer to $5.25m in cap space since their replacements will be Kakko and Kravtsov on a max ELCs. Is $13.25m enough to sign all 4 RFAs? More to the point... is $5.25m enough to sign Buchnevich, DeAngelo, and Lemieux? It'll be tight. A buyout gives them some breathing room, in addition to potentially preventing us from having to defer bonuses to the 20-21 cap. That would be dead space too.

1. I really don’t like squeezing those RFAs like that. The coming years we will have so many RFAs to resign on a yearly basis. They especially shouldn’t get 2 year deals, I think we have like seven non insignificant RFAs in 2 years (Chytil, Howden, Lemieux, Lias, Hajak, Fox, Geo and possibly Rykov/Reunanen?).

Hockeyplayer’s production goes so much up and down. These kids will be key building blocks for us, but it can’t be that you take too many risks of a 5m guy becoming a 8m guy just because you let him have a contract year every other year.

2. I do fear that the market might have changed for Namestnikov or that he might not be that attractive when teams do their due diligence on him. What do I know, but Quinn did appreciate Vesey more and gave him a bigger role than Names last season, and despite comparable contract situations we gave Vesey away for a 3rd down the road. If it was possible to pull the trigger on Names — wouldn’t we have done it? And while I do get the interest in Names due to his skill set — he played a small role on an awful team last season, aren’t their a risk for that other teams ask themselves if he wouldn’t have earned a bigger role if he had the gods?

 

[aufheben]

My problem is that I'm not convinced trading Namestnikov and Strome is enough to get us under the cap.

Aren’t they allowed to go over the cap until the season? So people are concerned about going over the cap and then being forced to make a trade?

Honestly like got such a steal with Trouba they kind of deserve it.

 

[GAGLine]

To be fair, Gorton has given us fews reasons to not be confident. He’s traded with, I don’t remember the exact number from the draft, at least half the teams in the league, on multiple occasions with 5-6 teams; some of those teams have been traded with three times, not including the deal with Edmonton at the draft that didn’t get done because everyone was spooked. And to be honest I’m not 100% clear on the apparent gravity of the situation; I’m seeing a lot of stuff about trade returns for Namestnikov and Strome.

In all of those prior deals, we were always under the cap and the pressure was usually on the other team, either to improve their team going into the playoffs or to clear cap space. Now the pressure is on us, because we are the ones who need to clear cap, and other GMs know it. You think they are going to offer fair value for our players? In the reverse situation, everyone would be suggesting that Gorton should take advantage of the situation, and rightly so. So why should other teams try to take advantage of us now?

Gorton isn't going to let the buyout window go by without using it if he needs to. And if we can't clear cap by then, he will need to.

 

[Tawnos]

1. I really don’t like squeezing those RFAs like that. The coming years we will have so many RFAs to resign on a yearly basis. They especially shouldn’t get 2 year deals, I think we have like seven non insignificant RFAs in 2 years (Chytil, Howden, Lemieux, Lias, Hajak, Fox, Geo and possibly Rykov/Reunanen?).

Hockeyplayer’s production goes so much up and down. These kids will be key building blocks for us, but it can’t be that you take too many risks of a 5m guy becoming a 8m guy just because you let him have a contract year every other year.

2. I do fear that the market might have changed for Namestnikov or that he might not be that attractive when teams do their due diligence on him. What do I know, but Quinn did appreciate Vesey more and gave him a bigger role than Names last season, and despite comparable contract situations we gave Vesey away for a 3rd down the road. If it was possible to pull the trigger on Names — wouldn’t we have done it? And while I do get the interest in Names due to his skill set — he played a small role on an awful team last season, aren’t their a risk for that other teams ask themselves if he wouldn’t have earned a bigger role if he had the gods?

I don't like squeezing the RFAs too much either.

 

[GregSirico]

 

[aufheben]

Meh, for every team that has to tack on a draft pick with a cap dump, there’s a team like Vancouver that gives you the draft pick.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Over
Over
Under
Over
Over
Over

Under
Over though this one is tough.
Under

* Health permitting.

 

[Tawnos]

Aren’t they allowed to go over the cap until the season? So people are concerned about going over the cap and then being forced to make a trade?

Honestly like got such a steal with Trouba they kind of deserve it.

Yes, we are concerned about losing all meaningful leverage and ending up in Bruins in 2014, where they had to trade a 1st pairing D for two 2nds or Chicago in the same year, where they basically traded Leddy for B prospects and AHLers.

 

[ZiGOODejad]

I would hope Chytil would get more then that

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Aren’t they allowed to go over the cap until the season? So people are concerned about going over the cap and then being forced to make a trade?

Honestly like got such a steal with Trouba they kind of deserve it.

Yeah, the offseason ceiling is 89M, they're only at 73 right now so they have plenty of room navigate the offseason and do what they gotta do.

 

[aufheben]

Yes, we are concerned about losing all meaningful leverage and ending up in Bruins in 2014, where they had to trade a 1st pairing D for two 2nds or Chicago in the same year, where they basically traded Leddy for B prospects and AHLers.

That makes sense but we only have one top-pairing defenseman and he’s the player we’re clearing space for to begin with lol.

 

[Thirty One]

See those are reasonable over/unders.

I was listening to the Blueshirt Banter podcast yesterday and they were all like: "Over/under 115 points for Panarin? I don't know, let me think about it."

 

[Tawnos]

That makes sense but we only have one top-pairing defenseman and he’s the player we’re clearing space for to begin with lol.

That was the Bruins and Blackhawks scenario. For us, we're basically talking about a scenario where we've passed the buyout window and the Names/Strome combination isn't enough to get us under the cap. At that point, the only real trade chip that would get us there is Kreider and he's our BEST trade chip. We'd be forced into moving our best trade chip for a poor return.

Yes, this is worst case scenario. But why force yourself into a place where the worst case scenario is a possibility when you don't have to?

 

[aufheben]

See those are reasonable over/unders.

I was listening to the Blueshirt Banter podcast yesterday and they were all like: "Over/under 115 points for Panarin? I don't know, let me think about it."

And the verdict?

That was the Bruins and Blackhawks scenario. For us, we're basically talking about a scenario where we've passed the buyout window and the Names/Strome combination isn't enough to get us under the cap. At that point, the only real trade chip that would get us there is Kreider and he's our BEST trade chip. We'd be forced into moving our best trade chip for a poor return.

Yes, this is worst case scenario. But why force yourself into a place where the worst case scenario is a possibility when you don't have to?

Are you referring to something they’ve done? Like holding onto Namestnikov for too long?

 

[GregSirico]

See those are reasonable over/unders.

I was listening to the Blueshirt Banter podcast yesterday and they were all like: "Over/under 115 points for Panarin? I don't know, let me think about it."

I was trying to be conservative with my numbers. The only real aggressive number I added was Buch and that's because I believe Kreider is gone so that's added ice time in the top 6 for Buch.