Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVII: On to Arbitration & the 2nd Buyout Window

[redwhiteandblue]

For reference, it appears the cap has gone up about 11.6% from what it was 4 years ago. And that’s with no new TV deal in that time. No new franchise bringing in revenue.

Another 11.6% increase in the next 4 years would be about 10 million increase.

So there’s really not much of a chance the increase doesn’t approach more like $20m once the TV deal starts filtering in.

But even saying modestly only $12m in cap increase in the next 4 years, plus the $26m that’s coming off the books, we will not be in a bad situation.

Anyone saying we will needs to show their work.

Lol what... you have been propping up an agenda about our future money situation in relation to the Cap and you haven’t been consistent or fair.

Have you not heard of the Vegas Golden Knights? A substantially bigger market than Seattle with more fruit to bare. Not to mention their miraculous first year run. Couldn’t actually have been a better situation as far as the Cap is concerned in that regard.

Also, as far as TV deals, the NHL has not always done the conventional thing. Let’s just wait and see what a new TV deal actually brings before you estimate the Cap above $100.

There’s so much between now and then and IMO you haven’t been really fair or consistent in supporting your point.

 

[RGY]

Speaking of TV, can we just get Gary Thorne back doing Nationally Televised games pleaseeee

 

[SA16]

the extent of my understanding of the chart is that if a bar is higher its better lol

It is. But he’s showing WAR X 100 which makes it look like a massive difference. It’s actually a difference of 1 WAR over 3 years

 

[mas0764]

Lol what... you have been propping up an agenda about our future money situation in relation to the Cap and you haven’t been consistent or fair.

Have you not heard of the Vegas Golden Knights? A substantially bigger market than Seattle with more fruit to bare. Not to mention their miraculous first year run. Couldn’t actually have been a better situation as far as the Cap is concerned in that regard.

Also, as far as TV deals, the NHL has not always done the conventional thing. Let’s just wait and see what a new TV deal actually brings before you estimate the Cap above $100.

There’s so much between now and then and IMO you haven’t been really fair or consistent in supporting your point.

Sorry, meant without taking into consideration the revenue from new team that will be accounted for.

Of course I’ve heard of the Golden Knights.

And again, obviously there is no set terms on the new TV deal, but even without it, nearly a 12% cap increase in the last four years.

A similar increase in the next four years would bring the cap to $92-$93m by itself. That’s taking into account no TV deal and no Seattle team bringing in extra revenue.

So unless we are projecting the new TV deal to be a loss, then yes, the cap is going to be at least in the mid-90s. It very well could get close to $100m within that time.

You’re gonna have to explain to me again what about that “isn’t being fair.”

 

[mas0764]

On top of that, the Rangers would and should have little interest in Zadorov. He's certainly not going to cut it for Kreider, or be in any deal revolving around Kreider.

On edit: unless the Avs are also taking Shattenkirk back without retention.

We have solid but non elite defensive prospects out the @SS. No thanks!

 

[mas0764]

Would you pay him 4 million dollars yes or no?

Guy is terrible. He’s played like a 4th liner since the minute he got here.

I don’t want the Rangers to pay him but if I was a different team I could see it as very appealing. Especially if I could get him for a third or fourth round pick.

 

[Leetch3]

It is. But he’s showing WAR X 100 which makes it look like a massive difference. It’s actually a difference of 1 WAR over 3 years

if you made it WAR x 1 than you'd change the scale and the bars remain the same side it would just be 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 instead of 100, 150, 200, 250

 

[mas0764]

I fully expect this. However, I suspect that a lot of people who are ecstatic with the Panarin signing will be not so much into some of the moves that are now pretty inevitable.

Which moves are those?

 

[mas0764]

Speaking of TV, can we just get Gary Thorne back doing Nationally Televised games pleaseeee

Yes plz

ESPN may get a package, I would love that. Does he still work for them or has he moved on to some regional radio outfit?

 

[Avery16]

Which moves are those?

Its been discussed ad nauseam today.

 

[Savant]

Zadorov's $3.2m is lower than Kreider's $4.625m so that's at least some savings for them.

In any case, I didn't realise that Rangers had so little cap room to manoeuvre. $8m capspace to fit in Trouba, DeAngelo, Buchevnich, and Lemieux. That's gonna be tiiiight.

What are the most probable moves for the Rangers to get out of that pickle? I'm guessing the most probably casualties are Kreider, Namesnikov, and especially Shattenkirk (50% retention, if anyone will take him), is that correct?

What value picks/prospects would it take to get Kreider straight up? Would Kreider <----> COL 2020 1st + TOR 2020 3rd + Meloche get it done? It would leave the Avs without a pick in the first 3 rounds in 2020 so I don't think Sakic would be so keen (unless he can recoup picks in other ways), but is the value balanced with that package for NYR?

No. You are not understanding. The Rangers need to clear our that whole cap hit. Saving a little over a million does. nothing for them.

 

[LORDE]

I don’t remember saying I was worried about the cap. Worst case, two buyouts. Best case a trade or two.

The post I quoted was u stating cap issues. Ur “worst case” in the post I’m quoting now is terrible... and “best case” is more difficult post bread man.

Again, I’m on board... I have full faith in Gorton but to pretend that looking a bit down the road at cap implications is foolish gets u into trouble. Hence where we are.

There ARE knowns on this roster now, and in two years... there are unknowns as well but to just say “ahhhh we’ll figure it out” and throw caution to the wind is ridiculous IMO.

 

[RGY]

Yes plz

ESPN may get a package, I would love that. Does he still work for them or has he moved on to some regional radio outfit?

I am pretty sure he is only doing the Orioles TV Broadcast.

 

[mas0764]

The post I quoted was u stating cap issues. Ur “worst case” in the post I’m quoting now is terrible... and “best case” is more difficult post bread man.

Again, I’m on board... I have full faith in Gorton but to pretend that looking a bit down the road at cap implications is foolish gets u into trouble. Hence where we are.

There ARE knowns on this roster now, and in two years... there are unknowns as well but to just say “ahhhh we’ll figure it out” and throw caution to the wind is ridiculous IMO.

I’m actively saying it’s not going to be a problem. Not that “we’ll figure it out.” Of course by saying that, I mean, “not a problem any more than signing Gaborik or trading for Nash was a problem.” Those contracts never were the problem.... overpaying other non deserving players was the problem.

Obviously future decisions will have to be made and some players will not stay here; but I don’t see anything remotely resembling a scenario on the horizon where the Rangers lose someone they really want to keep but can’t because of Panarin’s contract.

Again, even assuming very modest growth of the cap based on the last 4 years, and that’s not a reasonable assumption because the new TV deal will make it go up more than that, the cap will most likely go up about $10-$11m in the next four years (matching the 11-12% it has gone up in the last four years). Combined with the $26m in cap space coming off our books, that means about $35m+ in available room to re-sign guys, at least.

Some will be locked up long term, some will be bridged.

Frankly, if we can get some guys locked up long term before the TV deal kicks in, we’ll be really golden, because their contracts will look like steals once it does.

The NHL currently gets $200m a year from NBC to broadcast. The current speculation is that doubling that to $400m a year will be the absolute rock bottom.... it could go to more like $500-$600m a year, especially if they expand streaming options. The cap is going up. More than we are used to.

 

[RonaldNeptune]

In regards to lias what do people think is best for his development moving forward ?

 

[bl02]

In regards to lias what do people think is best for his development moving forward ?

Obviously making the big club and playing a top 9 role. Just not sure how much playing 4th line minutes this coming year will help his development but I guess if he doesn't earn it that is where Quinn will be playing him

 

[bobbop]

The post I quoted was u stating cap issues. Ur “worst case” in the post I’m quoting now is terrible... and “best case” is more difficult post bread man.

Again, I’m on board... I have full faith in Gorton but to pretend that looking a bit down the road at cap implications is foolish gets u into trouble. Hence where we are.

There ARE knowns on this roster now, and in two years... there are unknowns as well but to just say “ahhhh we’ll figure it out” and throw caution to the wind is ridiculous IMO.

I’ve never seen the Ranger cap projection system but I did see the Coyotes system and learned how they do it. I assume the Rangers are similar.

The Coyotes have a very sophisticated system where they could a push a button and show the value of any change, not just for the current year but seven years out. Buyout a player and there’s a change in projections. Consider a trade and see the cap implications instantly not just for the current year but for the next seven years. The system allowed for the team to project what a player might make in the future and also where the cap might move. It was Star Wars stuff. Even if the team didn’t spend to the cap, they spent to a firm budget which in some cases was mandated by the league.

I assume the Rangers have something similar. Along with a geek to project any scenario. I’d like to see this roster crunch cleaned up as soon as possible so we can focus on who will be here and who won’t. I’m confident Gorton knows the up and down side of every projected move. I’m hopeful his decisions will be the best possible.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

In regards to lias what do people think is best for his development moving forward ?

He needs to play as much as possible, imo. And In all situations.

If painful growing pains are necessary for his development, then so be it. 2019-2020 isn’t about winning or making the playoffs. Can our prospects take a step forward? Will we see some progress?

I think Lias is being overlooked with all the new blood on our team + his less than spectacular start with his NHL career. I wish he took off from the start like Pettersson, but that’s just totally unrealistic with 95% of prospects.

I might be part of the minority here but I think Lias is going to have a wonderful NHL career.

 

[duhmetreE]

Revenue would need to be sitting around $5.5B to get to $100M cap?

 

[TheDirtyH]

He needs to play as much as possible, imo. And In all situations.

If painful growing pains are necessary for his development, then so be it. 2019-2020 isn’t about winning or making the playoffs. Can our prospects take a step forward? Will we see some progress?

I think Lias is being overlooked with all the new blood on our team + his less than spectacular start with his NHL career. I wish he took off from the start like Pettersson, but that’s just totally unrealistic with 95% of prospects.

I might be part of the minority here but I think Lias is going to have a wonderful NHL career.

I've been on this page for some time too. It's been a huge disappointment to see Howden taking more regular shifts at even strength without really doing much to maintain that position, Chytil getting put to wing for the opportunity to keep playing with real talent, and Lemieux and Namestikov getting PP1 and 2 time all while Lias averages sub 10 mins a game, never gets a moment on the wing to play with good players, and can't get a single shift on the PP.

Lias looks to me like a player with much higher upside than 48 and 21. Maybe he's not better than them yet, but it's hard to argue that he's been worse IMO. It's also a joke to draft a player 7th overall just to groom them into a 4th line/PK role.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Obviously making the big club and playing a top 9 role. Just not sure how much playing 4th line minutes this coming year will help his development but I guess if he doesn't earn it that is where Quinn will be playing him

Hasn't he earned that already with his performance on a line with Lemieux and Buchnevich this season? That clearly worked very well.

 

[bobbop]

Lol what... you have been propping up an agenda about our future money situation in relation to the Cap and you haven’t been consistent or fair.

Have you not heard of the Vegas Golden Knights? A substantially bigger market than Seattle with more fruit to bare. Not to mention their miraculous first year run. Couldn’t actually have been a better situation as far as the Cap is concerned in that regard.

Also, as far as TV deals, the NHL has not always done the conventional thing. Let’s just wait and see what a new TV deal actually brings before you estimate the Cap above $100.

There’s so much between now and then and IMO you haven’t been really fair or consistent in supporting your point.

Seattle is a much, much bigger TV market than Vegas. That’s the main reason it was so desireable to the NHL. Just outside top 10 DMAs while Vegas was 41st ranked last time I looked. Seattle will also benefit from having great hockey towns Portland and Spokane in the vicinity as well as being two hours from Canada.

And not relevant to this point but interesting to note...Washington state has no income tax ( like Florida, Nevada. Texas etc.)

My media associates tell me NHL TV revenue will double at a minimum and probably go higher than that. The league is looking at having 3-5 different packages for networks to bid on (2 regular season including a once a week Hockey night designed for ESPN, 2 playoff packages (by conference) and SC Final for broadcast networks)

 

[egelband]

I’ve never seen the Ranger cap projection system but I did see the Coyotes and learned how they do it. I assume the Rangers are similar.

The Coyotes had a very sophisticated system where they could a push a button and show the value of any change, not just for the current year but seven years out. Buyout a player and there’s a change in projections. Consider a trade and see the cap implications instantly not just for the current year but for the next seven years. The system allowed for the team to project what a 0layer might make in the future and also where the cap might move. It was Star Wars stuff. Even if the team didn’t spend to the cap, they spent to a firm budget which in some cases was mandated by the league.

I assume the Rangers have something similar. Along with a geek to project any scenario. I’d like to see this roster crunch cleaned up as soon as possible so we can focus on who will be here and who won’t. I’m confident Gorton knows the up and down side of every projected move. I’m hopeful his decisions will be the best possible.

Great info. Thank you. And I appreciate people are concerned about the cap but it's really just a matter of time. Gorton will get rid of some contracts and/or buy out one or more players. I hope buyouts aren't needed but they'll do what they think is best and then the cap will be fine. It's really a short-term cap issue. Not cap hell, as they say.
The key - going forward - is really to avoid overpaying/over-term-ing the depth guys.

 

[aufheben]

I’m actively saying it’s not going to be a problem. Not that “we’ll figure it out.” Of course by saying that, I mean, “not a problem any more than signing Gaborik or trading for Nash was a problem.” Those contracts never were the problem.... overpaying other non deserving players was the problem.

Obviously future decisions will have to be made and some players will not stay here; but I don’t see anything remotely resembling a scenario on the horizon where the Rangers lose someone they really want to keep but can’t because of Panarin’s contract.

Again, even assuming very modest growth of the cap based on the last 4 years, and that’s not a reasonable assumption because the new TV deal will make it go up more than that, the cap will most likely go up about $10-$11m in the next four years (matching the 11-12% it has gone up in the last four years). Combined with the $26m in cap space coming off our books, that means about $35m+ in available room to re-sign guys, at least.

Some will be locked up long term, some will be bridged.

Frankly, if we can get some guys locked up long term before the TV deal kicks in, we’ll be really golden, because their contracts will look like steals once it does.

The NHL currently gets $200m a year from NBC to broadcast. The current speculation is that doubling that to $400m a year will be the absolute rock bottom.... it could go to more like $500-$600m a year, especially if they expand streaming options. The cap is going up. More than we are used to.

Worst case scenario is all our prospects turning into stars. What a time.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Worst case scenario is all our prospects turning into stars. What a time.

Toronto is having that "problem" now. So you trade away one of them for help in other areas. Great