Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVII: On to Arbitration & the 2nd Buyout Window

[JC704]

While I don't necessarily agree with every point Avery is making, the larger point he's trying to make is this roster has a key building block (Zibanejad, a No. 1 center) signed to a great contract, a lot of talented players signed to entry-level contracts, and now with Panarin and Trouba's salary in the picture, the organizational timeline has accelerated from a "we don't have to worry because we can sign everybody under the salary cap at the same time" type of situation to a "we should probably maximize our window in Panarin/Trouba's early years" scenario.

Assuming everybody wants to wait until Hank, Staal, Shattenkirk and Smith are gone to really "go for it again," two years from now mind you, here are the following scenarios that likely occur in that timeframe:

- Panarin will be on the other side of 30-years old (he will age well, but still spooky) two years into the contract
- Zibanejad (in his final year) will be traded because this forum loves cap space and he would need a new contract
- Will there be a center prospect in the organization two years from now who can replace Zibanejad's top line production immediately?
- Buchnevich/Deangelo, likely signed to "bridge" deals, will probably have to be traded like Kreider to sign Kakko/Kravtsov to long-term contracts
- Assuming Kakko is the real deal, he will command big money as he enters the final year of his entry-level contract; Kravtsov is "wait and see"
- What do Chytil, Lias and Howden accomplish between now and then? (This is probably the most important)
- Will they have made a postseason appearance in those two seasons?

The only scenario the math works is if the cap jumps significantly, a big "if." If the answer to the final point there is no, which is possible considering many here want to ride out Shattenkirk/Staal/Smith and trade Kreider for the additional cap space, which means more growing pains for this season, then something went terribly wrong. In that happens, then it's time to start the "retool" to the "rebuild" -- with Panarin's cap hit for five more seasons and Kakko's impending mega contract coming up.

Plain and simple: JD was brought back into the organization, and Jeff Gorton signed Panarin and traded for Trouba because they are thinking playoffs this season.

There is a path this season. They have to unload one or two of the defensemen to make it happen, but it is possible. It will require probably taking back less value in a trade (Namestnikov), as well as retaining salary (Shattenkirk) or attaching assets (Smith) to make it happen, but that is a small price to pay for taking an important step forward. If the Avalanche were capable of doing it the past two seasons, the Rangers can too.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

While I don't necessarily agree with every point Avery is making, the larger point he's trying to make is this roster has a key building block (Zibanejad, a No. 1 center) signed to a great contract, a lot of talented players signed to entry-level contracts, and now with Panarin and Trouba's salary in the picture, the organizational timeline has accelerated from a "we don't have to worry because we can sign everybody under the salary cap at the same time" type of situation to a "we should probably maximize our window in Panarin/Trouba's early years" scenario.

Assuming everybody wants to wait until Hank, Staal, Shattenkirk and Smith are gone to really "go for it again," two years from now mind you, here are the following scenarios that likely occur in that timeframe:

- Panarin will be on the other side of 30-years old (he will age well, but still spooky) two years into the contract
- Zibanejad (in his final year) will be traded because this forum loves cap space and he would need a new contract
- Will there be a center prospect in the organization two years from now who can replace Zibanejad's top line production immediately?
- Buchnevich/Deangelo, likely signed to "bridge" deals, will probably have to be traded like Kreider to sign Kakko/Kravtsov to long-term contracts
- Assuming Kakko is the real deal, he will command big money as he enters the final year of his entry-level contract; Kravtsov is "wait and see"
- What do Chytil, Lias and Howden accomplish between now and then? (This is probably the most important)
- Will they have made a postseason appearance in those two seasons?

The only scenario the math works is if the cap jumps significantly, a big "if." If the answer to the final point there is no, which is possible considering many here want to ride out Shattenkirk/Staal/Smith and trade Kreider for the additional cap space, which means more growing pains for this season, then something went terribly wrong. In that happens, then it's time to start the "retool" to the "rebuild" -- with Panarin's cap hit for five more seasons and Kakko's impending mega contract coming up.

Plain and simple: JD was brought back into the organization, and Jeff Gorton signed Panarin and traded for Trouba because they are thinking playoffs this season.

There is a path this season. They have to unload one or two of the defensemen to make it happen, but it is possible. It will require probably taking back less value in a trade (Namestnikov), as well as retaining salary (Shattenkirk) or attaching assets (Smith) to make it happen, but that is a small price to pay for taking an important step forward. If the Avalanche were capable of doing it the past two seasons, the Rangers can too.

This is so painfully false.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

While I don't necessarily agree with every point Avery is making, the larger point he's trying to make is this roster has a key building block (Zibanejad, a No. 1 center) signed to a great contract, a lot of talented players signed to entry-level contracts, and now with Panarin and Trouba's salary in the picture, the organizational timeline has accelerated from a "we don't have to worry because we can sign everybody under the salary cap at the same time" type of situation to a "we should probably maximize our window in Panarin/Trouba's early years" scenario.

Assuming everybody wants to wait until Hank, Staal, Shattenkirk and Smith are gone to really "go for it again," two years from now mind you, here are the following scenarios that likely occur in that timeframe:

- Panarin will be on the other side of 30-years old (he will age well, but still spooky) two years into the contract
- Zibanejad (in his final year) will be traded because this forum loves cap space and he would need a new contract
- Will there be a center prospect in the organization two years from now who can replace Zibanejad's top line production immediately?
- Buchnevich/Deangelo, likely signed to "bridge" deals, will probably have to be traded like Kreider to sign Kakko/Kravtsov to long-term contracts
- Assuming Kakko is the real deal, he will command big money as he enters the final year of his entry-level contract; Kravtsov is "wait and see"
- What do Chytil, Lias and Howden accomplish between now and then? (This is probably the most important)
- Will they have made a postseason appearance in those two seasons?

The only scenario the math works is if the cap jumps significantly, a big "if." If the answer to the final point there is no, which is possible considering many here want to ride out Shattenkirk/Staal/Smith and trade Kreider for the additional cap space, which means more growing pains for this season, then something went terribly wrong. In that happens, then it's time to start the "retool" to the "rebuild" -- with Panarin's cap hit for five more seasons and Kakko's impending mega contract coming up.

Plain and simple: JD was brought back into the organization, and Jeff Gorton signed Panarin and traded for Trouba because they are thinking playoffs this season.

There is a path this season. They have to unload one or two of the defensemen to make it happen, but it is possible. It will require probably taking back less value in a trade (Namestnikov), as well as retaining salary (Shattenkirk) or attaching assets (Smith) to make it happen, but that is a small price to pay for taking an important step forward. If the Avalanche were capable of doing it the past two seasons, the Rangers can too.

A path to what exactly? You have to love the information age, where we've read about these young players for so long that it's easy to make the assumption that they'll all be ready for the NHL immediately. Thankfully, management has signaled at every turn that patience is key.

 

[JC704]

I'm looking at guys like Chytil and Anderson like I do with jazz guys like Wayne Shorter and Herbie Hancock. Talented guys on their own but they were even better when accompanying a talented player like Miles Davis.

Next season watching the meshing should prove fun.

This is exactly what I think as well, which is why having that second line together is important. I can't expect 20/21-year old kids to make jumps on their own not playing with already established, seasoned (and good to boot) professionals.

 

[JC704]

This is so painfully false.

Then why sign a top line forward who turns 28 in October for $11 million per season + acquire a top-pair right-handed defenseman who needs at least $7 million per season if the plan isn't playoffs? Does that make sense to you?

 

[mas0764]

For reference, it appears the cap has gone up about 11.6% from what it was 4 years ago. And that’s with no new TV deal in that time. No new franchise bringing in revenue.

Another 11.6% increase in the next 4 years would be about 10 million increase.

So there’s really not much of a chance the increase doesn’t approach more like $20m once the TV deal starts filtering in.

But even saying modestly only $12m in cap increase in the next 4 years, plus the $26m that’s coming off the books, we will not be in a bad situation.

Anyone saying we will needs to show their work.

 

[Thirty One]

Then why sign a top line forward who turns 28 in October for $11 million per season + acquire a top-pair right-handed defenseman who needs at least $7 million per season if the plan isn't playoffs? Does that make sense to you?

Because they project to be good long term assets. And if the goal is to big things in Year X, it's harder to do if you won very few games in Year X-1

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Then why sign a top line forward who turns 28 in October for $11 million per season + acquire a top-pair right-handed defenseman who needs at least $7 million per season if the plan isn't playoffs? Does that make sense to you?

Because you believe that they are long term pieces for the solution.

These moves were not made with the intention of making the playoffs next year. That would be horribly short sided. Quinn, JD, Gorton have all mentioned that adding these guys are just pieces for the "build" and not to expect a strong team right off the bat. I mean to me it sounds like they're being rational.

If they get into the playoffs, its going to be because those guys made an impact along with a bunch of other young guys stepping up. I think they'll sign up for that right now, but these moves were not made with the sole purpose of getting back into the playoffs.

 

[mas0764]

While I don't necessarily agree with every point Avery is making, the larger point he's trying to make is this roster has a key building block (Zibanejad, a No. 1 center) signed to a great contract, a lot of talented players signed to entry-level contracts, and now with Panarin and Trouba's salary in the picture, the organizational timeline has accelerated from a "we don't have to worry because we can sign everybody under the salary cap at the same time" type of situation to a "we should probably maximize our window in Panarin/Trouba's early years" scenario.

Assuming everybody wants to wait until Hank, Staal, Shattenkirk and Smith are gone to really "go for it again," two years from now mind you, here are the following scenarios that likely occur in that timeframe:

- Panarin will be on the other side of 30-years old (he will age well, but still spooky) two years into the contract
- Zibanejad (in his final year) will be traded because this forum loves cap space and he would need a new contract
- Will there be a center prospect in the organization two years from now who can replace Zibanejad's top line production immediately?
- Buchnevich/Deangelo, likely signed to "bridge" deals, will probably have to be traded like Kreider to sign Kakko/Kravtsov to long-term contracts
- Assuming Kakko is the real deal, he will command big money as he enters the final year of his entry-level contract; Kravtsov is "wait and see"
- What do Chytil, Lias and Howden accomplish between now and then? (This is probably the most important)
- Will they have made a postseason appearance in those two seasons?

The only scenario the math works is if the cap jumps significantly, a big "if." If the answer to the final point there is no, which is possible considering many here want to ride out Shattenkirk/Staal/Smith and trade Kreider for the additional cap space, which means more growing pains for this season, then something went terribly wrong. In that happens, then it's time to start the "retool" to the "rebuild" -- with Panarin's cap hit for five more seasons and Kakko's impending mega contract coming up.

Plain and simple: JD was brought back into the organization, and Jeff Gorton signed Panarin and traded for Trouba because they are thinking playoffs this season.

There is a path this season. They have to unload one or two of the defensemen to make it happen, but it is possible. It will require probably taking back less value in a trade (Namestnikov), as well as retaining salary (Shattenkirk) or attaching assets (Smith) to make it happen, but that is a small price to pay for taking an important step forward. If the Avalanche were capable of doing it the past two seasons, the Rangers can too.

It’s not really a “big if” that the cap will jump substantially. It’s a “big if” that it won’t. It’s way more likely than not to outpace the past four years rate of increase I’d bet.

Not only will they re-up with a package that surpasses the value of the existing TV package, rumor is that they will add additional packages, such as ESPN, in addition to an extended and higher value NBC contract.

Lots of money is coming the league’s way soon. Cap is gonna go up, up, up.

 

[Irishguy42]

It's pointless to discuss cap/roster construction a few years out because:

1. It's the NHL and rosters change a decent amount, especially with a rebuilding team like the Rangers
2. The CBA early opt-out for the NHL is 9/1/19 and 9/15/19 for the NHLPA, so we may potentially not have a season immediately beyond this coming one (note: I highly doubt they opt out early)
3. The current TV deal is set to expire after the 20/21 season, and should be a major increase (would think a good $6M+ bump assuming increase to $600M/yr), just in time for Summer Contract Bonanza 2021, when Andersson/Chytil/etc. all come off their ELCs and Lundqvist/Staal/etc. come off the books.
   
4. The current CBA is slated to end after the 21/22 season, the same year as that Zibanejad/Kakko/Kravstov are up.
   
5. Seattle coming into the league will be more HRR, albeit increasing the amount that's divided between the teams for cap.

Way to much to try and predict even a few years out from now.

Suffice to say though, the cap will probably only be a problem if every single player on their ELC hits and deserves a big pay day, and that's unlikely to happen. The only contract we can confidently predict to be sizable when the time comes, as of right now, is Kakko. That's it. And even then, it's not a guarantee.

As for signing Panarin for ~$11.6M now, even doing rough projections for upcoming contracts that might be huge (ZBad, Kakko, Kravstov), it's not a huge hindrance.

 

[haohmaru]

This thread desperately needs something, anything, to happen.

 

[bobbop]

This is exactly why some of us were unsure/didn't want to sign Panarin and you (and others) said we worried too much about the cap.

I don’t remember saying I was worried about the cap. Worst case, two buyouts. Best case a trade or two.

 

[SA16]

People care too much about the cap. It's easy for management to deal with any issues that arise and by the time Kakko/Kravtsov need raises we should get an influx of ELCs with Miller/Lundkvist etc.

 

[Irishguy42]

This thread desperately needs something, anything, to happen.

Let's talk about Shattenkirk's baby!

Oh wait...

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Gorton sure plays a mean pinball

 

[FIRE DRURY]

This thread desperately needs something, anything, to happen.

Agreed.

Trouba signing and a Trade, possibly a buyout. Something definitely needs to happen for everyone’s sanity.

I’d rather listen to Sam talk about how strong Marcel Hossa’s play is along the boards than participate in some of these stale topics.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Agreed.

Trouba signing and a Trade, possibly a buyout. Something definitely needs to happen for everyone’s sanity.

I’d rather listen to Sam talk about how strong Marcel Hossa’s play is along the boards than participate in some of these stale topics.

I don't understand why. We are less than 3 weeks out from trading for Trouba, drafting Kakko and signing Panarin.

I am becoming more and more convinced every day that there is an ever growing number of posters here who simply are NOT happy unless they are complaining about something.

 

[The New Russian Five]

People care too much about the cap. It's easy for management to deal with any issues that arise and by the time Kakko/Kravtsov need raises we should get an influx of ELCs with Miller/Lundkvist etc.

Kind of like how easy it has been to do something about Staal's, Smith's, and Shatty's contracts? Gorton has been on the phone all summer looking for a potential deal for any one of those guys and he's getting nothing. Cap management is a serious concern and we should care about it.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I don't understand why. We are less than 3 weeks out from trading for Trouba, drafting Kakko and signing Panarin.

I am becoming more and more convinced every day that there is an ever growing number of posters here who simply are NOT happy unless they are complaining about something.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

People will get cheerier around here when we bring back Spooner

 

[McRanger]

I don't understand why. We are less than 3 weeks out from trading for Trouba, drafting Kakko and signing Panarin.

I am becoming more and more convinced every day that there is an ever growing number of posters here who simply are NOT happy unless they are complaining about something.

Things are going too well. There has to be a catch.

 

[bobbop]

If all of these young players are going to earn the kind of contracts that create big cap issues, we’ll all be eating strawberries in the wintertime.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

People will get cheerier around here when we bring back Spooner

Spooner-Christensen-Holland for 4th line.

 

[RGY]

Its amazing, wasting a whole day complaining about something that hasn’t happened yet, all based on the assumption that ALL of our top prospects will hit their ceiling and will ALL require large second contracts.

And if that actually happened it would be a great problem to have. That means we should be competing for the cup in 1-2 years.

 

[Richard88]

What do Rangers fans think about a potential trade around Kreider (extended) for Zadorov, at the trade deadline? Add picks either side to balance as you wish.


Rangers perspective:

• In Zadorov Rangers get a very physical defenseman to complement all their puck-moving defenseman.

• Zadorov (24) is younger than Kreider (28) so fits the age of their rebuilding core better.

• Zadorov is an RFA for another 3 seasons, whereas Kreider is an UFA at the end of this season and doesn't appear to be resigning (correct me if I'm wrong there).

• Zadorov can play on any D pairing, handling tough defensive minutes as well as on the PK.

• Adding a LD rebalances the defense, as Rangers currently has 4 RHS defenseman. (Shattenkirk (30) would of course be traded (or fired out of a cannon into the sun), which would be much easier to do in 2020 with just 1 year left on his contract).

Skjei (25) ---------- Trouba (25)
Staal (32) ---------- DeAngelo (23)
Zadorov (24) ---- Fox (21)​

• Zadorov would be a perfect fit to gradually take over 2LD as Staal inevitably regresses.

• As for the forward group, with Panarin and Kaako added to the 1st line, and Chytil; Strome,; Kravtsov, etc taking over the secondary scoring, Kreider isn't as much of a key player as he was before. Moving on from him gives the younger guys the chance to step up.

Panarin ---------- Zibanejad ---- Buchevnich
Chytil ----------- Howden ------ Kaako
Namestnikov -- Andersson ----- Strome
McKegg -------- Kravtsov ------- Fast​

Colorado perspective:

• Colorado could use another top 6 forward, and Kreider would be a good fit on the 2nd line.

Landeskog ---- Mackinnon --- Rantanen
Kreider -------- Kadri -------- Burakovsky
Jost ------------ Compher ------ Donskoi
Wilson -------- Bellemare ----- Calvert
(Nieto)​

• Colorado has a gluttony of young defenseman, and with the emergence of Byram on the left Zadorov will probably be expendable, as much as it would be nice to keep him long-term.

Girard --- Johnson
Cole ------ Makar
Byram --- Rosén
(Connauton/Barberio/Graves/Timmins/Meloche)​

• Colorado will have ~$5-8m in capspace after signing their remaining RFA's, so easily have the caproom to resign Kreider.

• Waiting until the deadline to do the trade would be best for Colorado, as the trade would be dependent on:

• Cole being healthy and playing reasonably well by the trade deadline;

• one of Timmins/Byram being ready this season; AND
• at least one of Connauton/Barberio/Graves/Rosén/Meloche being serviceable.

• If those 3 conditions are met before the deadline then Zadorov would be expendable, and the money he's looking for on his next contract ($4m+) would be better off going towards another 2nd line forward.

Your thoughts?