Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVII: On to Arbitration & the 2nd Buyout Window

[mas0764]

There are the contracts coming off that we don’t intend to bring back, and there are the contracts coming off then and soon afterwards that we will want back but will cost a lot more. No one wants to talk about that second part.

Actually, we have done nothing but talk about it.

You just haven’t shown your work yet to disprove anything we’ve said.

 

[mas0764]

The only person who has here is @SA16.

I showed mine.

 

[Avery16]

Actually, we have done nothing but talk about it.

You just haven’t shown your work yet to disprove anything we’ve said.

Your “work” was guaranteeing that the cap will be above 100 million before we have any problems so I don’t think I need to see any more of your “work”, thanks.

 

[mas0764]

How many of you are even taking Trouba, Buchnevich, ADA, and Lemieux’s new contracts into consideration?

Me.

I accounted for it when I showed my work earlier this afternoon.

 

[Avery16]

I showed mine.

LOL

 

[TheBPA]

Woof this thread.

 

[pld459666]

@SA16 just pretty well demonstrated that they will.

The last sentence is my point entirely. We made a choice with Panarin, and that choice effectively bumped up our window a couple years but also made it smaller. In my opinion, we’ve hurt our chances.

I respectfully disagree.

I do not believe keeping or not keeping Mika/Brady lengthens or shortens the window.

I believe the premise under which this franchise will now operate is to continue to build from within and with the right moves, be it Draft Picks, Trades or UFA Signings, the window will begin to open in 2 years and close in 12-15 years.

I do not expect heavy contributions from Kakko or Kravtsov for years one/two, but by year three, they along with Panarin will be our offensive leaders followed by Mika, Hopefully Chytil and Buchnevich.

 

[pld459666]

How many of you are even taking Trouba, Buchnevich, ADA, and Lemieux’s new contracts into consideration?

Once Kreider and Namestnikov are moved, those deals are manageable

 

[SA16]

The Skjei/Hajek/DeAngelo cap hits aren't a big deal. Come 21-22 all 3 of them most likely will not be on the team. They can't all be protected in expansion. If DeAangelo/Hajek play well enough to show that they should be protected than Skjei will have to be traded by then.

 

[Avery16]

I respectfully disagree.

I do not believe keeping or not keeping Mika/Brady lengthens or shortens the window.

I believe the premise under which this franchise will now operate is to continue to build from within and with the right moves, be it Draft Picks, Trades or UFA Signings, the window will begin to open in 2 years and close in 12-15 years.

I do not expect heavy contributions from Kakko or Kravtsov for years one/two, but by year three, they along with Panarin will be our offensive leaders followed by Mika, Hopefully Chytil and Buchnevich.

I have a real question about who our 1 and 2 Cs will be when we have to trade Zib.

 

[Metranger]

I feel this forum overrates Chytil and underrates Lias. I think both will be fairly solid. In Lias' case, we've never seen him playing with talented wingers since he was drafted.

I think it's imperative the Rangers start the season with Kreider and Buchnevich on the roster. Attaching Lias to Howden on the 4th line will do nothing for the development of each.

Think something like:

Panarin - Zibanejad - Kakko (Don't overthink a potentially very good line)

Kreider - Lias/Chytil/Howden - Buchnevich (Each are given chances to earn the 2C spot, with Strome)

Lias/Chytil - Strome - Kravtsov (Strome acts as steady presence on the 3rd line; Kravtsov starts there with less pressure and can be mixed/matched)

Lemieux - Howden/Lias - Fast (Self explanatory) + Nieves as the extra forward

Namestnikov should go in any scenario. If extra cap space is needed, attach assets to unload Smith, consider a buy out, etc. That forward group can make the playoffs, and can take a nice leap forward this season. If they underwhelm, trade Kreider at the Deadline and re-evaluate next offseason.

I'm looking at guys like Chytil and Anderson like I do with jazz guys like Wayne Shorter and Herbie Hancock. Talented guys on their own but they were even better when accompanying a talented player like Miles Davis.

Next season watching the meshing should prove fun.

 

[Avery16]

Once Kreider and Namestnikov are moved, those deals are manageable

The increase from Pionk to Trouba alone is completely taken up with moving Kreider and Names, assuming we take back zero salary which I think it unlikely. That’s not even taking into account Buch and ADA. The math doesn’t work.

 

[mas0764]

I’m making a point that this blanket waving off of the cost of ELCs expiring can’t possibly take up the 20 mill coming off with the three D and hank. It will, and quickly.

No one is waiving it off. The $30+ million we will have, or more because the cap will actually go up substantially upon the new TV deal, of course will be eaten up by ELCs expiring.

That being said not every expiring ELC will be worth renewing at the price they will want. Of those remaining that are worth it, we assuredly will be able to bridge or extend most of them. It’s highly unlikely given the number of players we are talking about, versus the likelihood of what they will be asking for and the amount of cap space that we have, that we will have to lose out of anyone we really want.

The more likely scenario is possibly having to say goodbye to a middle 6 or bottom 6 guy who wants $5-6m or more.

And that’s just the cost of business. If Panarin costs us Howden someday, oh well. It’s Panarin. It’s Howden.

If you think there is a plausible scenario where we have to walk away from Kakko or Kravtsov, please show your work.

You are the one asserting this is a problem. We reject the empty unproven logic that it’s a problem. Show us why.

 

[Rongomania]

I'm looking at guys like Chytil and Anderson like I do with jazz guys like Wayne Shorter and Herbie Hancock. Talented guys on their own but they were even better when accompanying a talented player like Miles Davis.

Next season watching the meshing should prove fun.

Far out analogy.

 

[BklynTerp]

I have a real question about who our 1 and 2 Cs will be when we have to trade Zib.

We literally weren’t sure that we had a #1 in Zib until this year. And now we have to know who the 1 and 2 will be 4 years from now?

 

[Avery16]

We literally weren’t sure that we had a #1 in Zib until this year. And now we have to know who the 1 and 2 will be 4 years from now?

You mean in our window? Yeah. And shame on you for not knowing Zib was a 1C.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I have a real question about who our 1 and 2 Cs will be when we have to trade Zib.

2 things.

a. we may not have to trade him

b. who knows what will happen between now and 2022. We need to keep a constant flow of ELC talent pumping through the organization in order to ice a perennial contender though. The secondary pieces (Buch, Skjei, ADA,Howden, Lias, etc.) are mostly going to have to be moved so they can keep the bigger guys around and hopefully by the time that becomes an issue, we'll have the horses ready to step in with little to no drop off.

The issue I had with the Panarin signing is we don't know what the f*** we have yet and if guys end up stepping up and becoming better than expected sooner than expected, its going to make for some really tough decisions.

 

[mas0764]

Wait, you said the cap is reliably going to increase beyond 100 million in a few years so we should count on it fixing all our problems and you didn’t want to be mocked?

The cap is going to go up substantially after the new TV deal. A lot more than the otherwise 2-3m a year that will happen over the next 2 years.

It probably will be close to that if not more.

Not sure why this is a problem point for you to comprehend.... other than it kills off the reason for your complaining.

 

[Avery16]

2 things.

a. we may not have to trade him

b. who knows what will happen between now and 2022. We need to keep a constant flow of ELC talent pumping through the organization in order to ice a perennial contender though. The secondary pieces (Buch, Skjei, ADA,Howden, Lias, etc.) are mostly going to have to be moved so they can keep the bigger guys around and hopefully by the time that becomes an issue, we'll have the horses ready to step in with little to no drop off.

The issue I had with the Panarin signing is we don't know what the **** we have yet and if guys end up stepping up and becoming better than expected sooner than expected, its going to make for some really tough decisions.

If we don’t trade him and he continues the way he has (with some better wingers than he has had, mind you) I think he asks for something close to Panarin money.

 

[pld459666]

The increase from Pionk to Trouba alone is completely taken up with moving Kreider and Names, assuming we take back zero salary which I think it unlikely. That’s not even taking into account Buch and ADA. The math doesn’t work.

Were at 8 under now

We can sign all three of ADA, Buch and Lemieux.

We need another 8 for Trouba

 

[pld459666]

Were at 8 under now and that's without moving Belesky and Nieves off the roster.

We can sign all three of ADA, Buch and Lemieux.

We need another 8 for Trouba

 

[pld459666]

I have a real question about who our 1 and 2 Cs will be when we have to trade Zib.

I honestly believe they are going to try Kakko at center.

For the short term, it may be the best way to spread the love.

Panarin-Kakko-Kravtsov
Chytil-Mika-Buchnevich

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If we don’t trade him and he continues the way he has (with some better wingers than he has had, mind you) I think he asks for something close to Panarin money.

We can make that work though.

I mean it's going to require sending other people out but thats why you keep your farm stocked. I mean we won't see a 100 M cap by then, but it's not going to stay flat either.

 

[Avery16]

I honestly believe they are going to try Kakko at center.

For the short term, it may be the best way to spread the love.

Panarin-Kakko-Kravtsov
Chytil-Mika-Buchnevich

I also think Kakko and/or Kravstov will get looks at C

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Im not sure what's worse, not being pragmatic about the cap situation in the future, or making a VERY early assumption that all of our young players will be in line for raises that will destroy the cap in a few years.

Can we not take a moment to appreciate that the Rangers, for all their faults of the past, are in a very good position moving forward? They just injected their roster with an incredible amount of talent over the past 2 weeks and when Lundqvist, Shattenkirk, and Staal come off the books in a couple of years, the cap situation looks much rosier. And oh by the way, thats around the time the team should be looking to make a real splash and compete for something.