Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVI: Artemi, where art thou? In NY.

[UAGoalieGuy]

I think teams should be able to designate one "homegrown" player as their "franchise" player. The cap hut of that player would be what the league average is. Anything over would not count against the cap.

Teams could do this each summer, but if you take that franchise tag off (or traded said player) the full cap hit of that player would count against the cap.

Example: Franchise designated player signs contract with an AAV of $12MM. Average AAV for the league is $6MM. Amount held against the cap would be $6MM.

 

[RangerBlues]

It works well if you are a fan of the 3 teams with a chance to win

The NBA rejects parity.

 

[Ola]

Our prospect class is deep enough that I would attach our second to get rid of Staal

The cost would be — much — higher.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Bull**** because I've been *****ing about the cap for years.

This is about way more than Kreider. This is about our team when our core players aren't on ELC's or gift contacts.

You always seem to be bitching about something though.

Every team in the league will have the same challenges as we do keeping our core together that aren’t in their ELC’s.

Bettman is not going make drastic changes to satisfy you bud.

 

[Tawnos]

What is? Are league revenue projections too aggressive?

To be clear, the league HRR projection before the escalator is not a projection of the next season’s growth. It’s a projection of the final numbers from the previous year, which don’t get finalized until August. The escalator is there specifically to allow the players to try to anticipate the next season’s revenue growth. I’m not saying that the escalator has no part in this, but it’s more that it compounds the real issue.

The central reason for the high escrow is that almost every team in the league spends above the midpoint. The average team salary is well over 5% above and I think only two teams were below the midpoint last season. So if teams are spending above the midpoint, the players will pretty much always owe them money from escrow to put things back at 50%.

 

[Crease]

To be clear, the league HRR projection before the escalator is not a projection of the next season’s growth. It’s a projection of the final numbers from the previous year, which don’t get finalized until August. The escalator is there specifically to allow the players to try to anticipate the next season’s revenue growth. I’m not saying that the escalator has no part in this, but it’s more that it compounds the real issue.

The central reason for the high escrow is that almost every team in the league spends above the midpoint. The average team salary is well over 5% above and I think only two teams were below the midpoint last season. So if teams are spending above the midpoint, the players will pretty much always owe them money from escrow to put things back at 50%.

Thanks for the explanation, and you're right.

I think my frustration with the NHLPA on this issue is twofold: First, the players want every team to spend above the midpoint (and more accurately, to the ceiling). Second, in reading articles, the complaints are all over the place. Some players want to be paid what it says on their contract. Other players just want better expectation setting. And others still think the league is not doing enough to grow revenue.

 

[Machinehead]

You always seem to be *****ing about something though.

Every team in the league will have the same challenges as we do keeping our core together that aren’t in their ELC’s.

Bettman is not going make drastic changes to satisfy you bud.

He should. The product is suffering.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

He should. The product is suffering.

Not to me it isn’t.

 

[Kocur Dill]

The NBA rejects parity.

Which they can because of the players in that genre come from different values.

They would rather join forces with 2 of their buddies with a team that has the cap space regardless of what podunk city it is for a 2 to 4 year stint than play in marquee cities and develop a family identity in a secure environment.

One one hand I get it. On the other, it ain't me. NHL players "mostly" covet a "home" in one city and security and a stable environment for their family no matter the outcome of their career.

NBA players "mostly" chase the money and championships...provided it's teamed up wit de' boi's.

 

[Machinehead]

Not to me it isn’t.

I'm legitimately glad you're enjoying it. I found the playoffs very uninteresting and I'm not impressed by a single team in the NHL.

 

[Machinehead]

Which they can because of the players in that genre come from different values.

They would rather join forces with 2 of their buddies with a team that has the cap space regardless of what podunk city it is for a 2 to 4 year stint than play in marquee cities and develop a family identity in a secure environment.

One one hand I get it. On the other, it ain't me. NHL players "mostly" covet a "home" in one city and security and a stable environment for their family no matter the outcome of their career.

NBA players "mostly" chase the money and championships...provided it's teamed up wit de' boi's.

LA and Miami?

 

[jfc64]

Todays intellectual challenge:

Offer sheet Marner (11.6 million or some evil sum) which gives:

Kreider - Zibanejad - Marner
Panarin - Namestnikov - Buchnevich
Chytil - Strome - Kakko
McEgg - Andersson - Fast
Howden

Hajek - Shattenkirk
Skjei - Trouba
Staal - Fox
Deangelo

Smith, Beleskey, Namestnikov (goes with a high pick or two) = 10 million... how much left?

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Todays intellectual challenge:

Offer sheet Marner (11.6 million or some evil sum) which gives:

Kreider - Zibanejad - Marner
Panarin - Namestnikov - Buchnevich
Chytil - Strome - Kakko
McEgg - Andersson - Fast
Howden

Hajek - Shattenkirk
Skjei - Trouba
Staal - Fox
Deangelo

Smith, Beleskey, Namestnikov (goes with a high pick or two) = 10 million... how much left?

A high pick or two? We’re not gonna have any high picks to trade if we offersheet Marner.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I'm legitimately glad you're enjoying it. I found the playoffs very uninteresting and I'm not impressed by a single team in the NHL.

 

[bmoak]

Our prospect class is deep enough that I would attach our second to get rid of Staal

The Rangers still might have to give up a conditional 2nd this year for Fox, so that's not an option (an won't be enough.)

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Ya was this thread exposed to some asylum inmates for the last few pages? This place is bugging.

 

[SA16]

Staal 100% has trade value around the league with money retained. He's exactly the type of players management overvalues and signs all the time. Big, defensive defenseman, leader, name value etc. The question is more if the Rangers want to trade him and where he would be willing to waive for. Not saying we'd get anything of value for him but someone would take him

Girardi got bought out two years ago and signed for 2x3. Staal likely has a better reputation than him.

 

[Ken Lund]

Staal 100% has trade value around the league with money retained. He's exactly the type of players management overvalues and signs all the time. Big, defensive defenseman, leader, name value etc. The question is more if the Rangers want to trade him and where he would be willing to waive for. Not saying we'd get anything of value for him but someone would take him

Girardi got bought out two years ago and signed for 2x3. Staal likely has a better reputation than him.

But he'd have to agree to be traded.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Yeah, I agree, but he just isn’t that good though.

He has benefitted from getting weaker opponents and been put in that center spot where he as a RHS can just skate to the net and bang home lose pucks at the far left point. Sure those goals count as much as any other goals, but “anyone” can score them in that role and you want some more.

I have nothing against Ryan Strome, but he is just never any kind of difference maker on the ice. He never causes any concerns for a defense, he isn’t any kind of significant factor defensively, he isn’t very smart on the ice, he isn’t clutch or battles hard and so on.

Those are critiques that are separate from the shooting %. And those may well be legitimate concerns for Strome, although I think he is sound defensively.

I think what I am getting at is the bias we cultivate. The averages that work against the player we gang up on are harped on, but the averages that may benefit the same player are ignored. And vice versa for the favorite son.

Bottom line: we are capped out. We pushed our chips in July 1, 2019 to grab a guy that may help in 2021 when the team comes together. We did that knowing that certain needs will have to be addressed later or ultimately ignored by nature of a cap league. Strome is the de facto #2 center because the hopefuls are just that, until they do it. His shooting percentage most likely drops based on regression models, I think his point totals at worst stay the same based on a full season here instead of the chaos in Edmonton. We don't have many options because I don't see an answer within. A trade at this point has to be for futures so even if we land a future top 6 center, he's a few years away.

We chose to have strength on the wings, so let's use it. They have to prop up a guy like Strome until another option imposes itself. Chytil and Andersson need to take a big step forward to earn that slot because Quinn isn't the type to hand out responsibility lightly.

 

[mas0764]

It works well if you are a fan of the 3 teams with a chance to win

The reason only 3 teams have a chance to win isn’t the soft cap; it’s max contracts.

Tell Steph Curry and Kevin Durant that they can each only make $30 million, which is also how much, like, Harrison Barnes makes, they have every incentive to collude and team up.

Take the max away but keep a soft cap. When Steph Curry is making $60 million of a $100 million cap, sure, they can exceed the cap to keep Klay Thompson, but ain’t no way Durant is only taking $30m as well when the Knicks call and offer $70m.

 

[Tawnos]

Thanks for the explanation, and you're right.

I think my frustration with the NHLPA on this issue is twofold: First, the players want every team to spend above the midpoint (and more accurately, to the ceiling). Second, in reading articles, the complaints are all over the place. Some players want to be paid what it says on their contract. Other players just want better expectation setting. And others still think the league is not doing enough to grow revenue.

I mentioned it earlier in the thread... the way to balance the desire for teams to spend as much as possible and reduce the escrow numbers is to bring down how far over the midpoint the cap itself is. There’s no reason we need a symmetrical 15% above midpoint cap and 15% below midpoint floor.

If you make the percentages, for example, 5% above cap and 15% below floor, teams will spend right around the midpoint on average. If you freeze the cap, I think it’d only take 2-3 years to get to the target percentage and then it’ll go up again without major escrow pain.

 

[SA16]

But he'd have to agree to be traded.

I said that.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Well they don't have to trade him. There are other ways to get around the cap.

In terms of immediate roster impact, a Kreider trade has the greatest negative effect. It also happens to be the most likely outcome, though it doesn't have to be.

There is another way which seems to bother some people and I've jokingly suggested it before. If you move Skjei, you have the money re-sign Kreider.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Our prospect class is deep enough that I would attach our second to get rid of Staal

Is that the conditional 2nd going to Carolina if Fox plays more than 30 games?

 

[Mikos87]

What do they want the owners to do? The players vote to artificially jack up the ceiling 5% every year.

Not always, some years it was less than 2%.

There's the Salary Cap. And there's actual payouts. Jamie Benn for example makes $4M more than his cap hit this year. That $13M in salary is what gets realized against the escrow- which to balance the 50-50 ratio between players and owners.

If the league underperforms- meaning all 31 teams against the projected HRR... then what the players actually lose in escrow is higher.

But the cap itself has a direct positively correlated relationship with the escalator %.

There's a multifactorial set of considerations to take into account.