Speculation: Roster Building Thread LIV: Free Agency Hasn't Even Started

[egelband]

14.7% for a perennial 70 point player at age 27 is not an overpayment. This is the equivalent of a 6m deal in 2006

Paying Panarin that much means - to me - he's the top-paid Ranger probably for the contract's whole term. That's a pretty staggering commitment.

 

[dapowl]

14.7% for a perennial 70 point player at age 27 is not an overpayment. This is the equivalent of a 6m deal in 2006

jup, some people seem to forget that the cap rose at least for 2 MM each year, so in 7 years there would be an extra sum of at least 14 MM.

 

[Raspewtin]

Panarin's age keeps getting used as a negative talking point, but it obfuscates the fact that he's only played 4 NHL seasons with no injury history.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Slightly less production is an understatement. Gomez averaged 67 points per 82 games in his Devils career while till this point Panarin has averaged 81. Panarin has also been in the NHL a lot less time than Gomez.

SA16 has on multiple occasions posted comparables that shows how well Panarin's style ages.

‘Past results do not guarantee future earnings.’

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Panarin in his NHL career: .99 points per game
Gomez in his NHL career 2003-2007 (final 4 years): .91 points per game

Gomez was not nearly as dominant as Panarin.

Especially at even strength, Panarin is the superior player

14.7% for a perennial 70 point player at age 27 is not an overpayment. This is the equivalent of a 6m deal in 2006

.08 point difference. C'mon dude

He was still very close to what you described. Same age. Similar production although Gomez was a little less productive. Similar projected cap%. I felt Gomez was overpaid then and I feel like Panarin will be overpaid now.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Panarin's age keeps getting used as a negative talking point, but it obfuscates the fact that he's only played 4 NHL seasons with no injury history.

Panarin is basically a 25-year old UFA

 

[Raspewtin]

‘Past results do not guarantee future earnings.’

I don't know what this has to with what I said.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

.08 point difference. C'mon dude

He was still very close to what you described. Same age. Similar production although Gomez was a little less productive. Similar projected cap%. I felt Gomez was overpaid then and I feel like Panarin will be overpaid now.

Did you read the rest?

 

[Ghost of jas]

jup, some people seem to forget that the cap rose at least for 2 MM each year, so in 7 years there would be an extra sum of at least 14 MM.

NHL GMs are currently in a panic didn’t rise as expected.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Paying Panarin that much means - to me - he's the top-paid Ranger probably for the contract's whole term. That's a pretty staggering commitment.

This just means that we can afford him because we won't have any others making that much

 

[Off Sides]

What is the proper % of cap to use upon signing to give the best odds the team wins the Cup?

 

[zukeisgone]

If we get Breadman and Zuke gets his 5th year from Dallas and Kreider for Dvorak ...in addition to fair Trouba deal....oh my goodness!

 

[Ghost of jas]

I don't know what this has to with what I said.

You’re using prior player examples to justify why Panarin is going to be a worthy investment.

 

[Raspewtin]

You’re using prior player examples to justify why Panarin is going to be a worthy investment.

No actually Kupo did that by comparing him to Scott Gomez.

 

[dapowl]

He doesn't backheck and was flamed in GDTs but Torts praised his compete level/work ethic and kept playing him

a PPG Russian LW that doesn't backcheck, signed in his age 27 season for ca. 14% of cap hit. One will be Panarin the other one was Ovechkin (Cap 69 MM, 9,53 MM, 1 PPG)

only difference, OVI was RFA when he signed at 23 for 16.8 % and is one of the best goalscores to ever play the game.

Also: I am not comparing OV to AP!!

 

[pld459666]

Panarin's age keeps getting used as a negative talking point, but it obfuscates the fact that he's only played 4 NHL seasons with no injury history.

I have been saying this for a while now.

The limited NHL miles on his legs has me comfortable that he can continue to produce well into his 30's

He's not a NA player that has been playing 80-90-100 games a year for the last 12 years

I know the body breaks down when it breaks down, but when you are not a physical player to start with, less miles and no injuries the odds are greater that you will continue to be a key contributor well into the future

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

What is the proper % of cap to use upon signing to give the best odds the team wins the Cup?

Anything below 20% as a single player can't sign for more.

Anyway, I am off for the next few hours. Meeting someone for dinner and some wine and then packing for Budapest this weekend. They better not leak anything while I am there haha

 

[Ghost of jas]

No actually Kupo did that by comparing him to Scott Gomez.

You did, too, by bringing up the stats that @SA16 posted.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Did you read the rest?

I did and I won't disagree that EP > SG. When you brought up Panarin's cap% it made me think.

14.7% is an insane amount of money when you consider a team has over 20 players on their roster.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I did and I won't disagree that EP > SG. When you brought up Panarin's cap% it made me think.

14.7% is an insane amount of money when you consider a team has over 20 players on their roster.

The max a player can get is 20% and it's not like it's Ovechkin/Crosby/McDavid money. It's the tier below that. Panarin has never finished below 70 points in his NHL career. And he played on a declining Blackhawks team with 0 depth, and a fringe play off team in Columbus

 

[egelband]

Shattenkirk took less to come here so maybe Panarin will too? not a good comparison though lol........

This is what I'd assume too. As you say, it's not apples-to-apples. But free agents like Panarin can go wherever they want. The money is probably not his first-and-foremost concern. Maybe in the end it will be the deciding factor but I'd think he's got other priorities.
Both parties need to be honest and stick to their guns. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. But the Rangers and Panarin seem like a good fit in many ways.

 

[Raspewtin]

You did, too, by bringing up the stats that @SA16 posted.

In direct response to the idea that he will end up like Scott Gomez.

If saying players in similar situations with similar styles have aged comparatively well is irrelevant, well, then so is using examples of players that aged badly. Either all past players with similarities are fair game or none are.

 

[Ghost of jas]

In direct response to the idea that he will end up like Scott Gomez.

If saying players in similar situations with similar styles have aged comparatively well is irrelevant, well, then so is using examples of players that aged badly. Either all past players with similarities are fair game or none are.

No, it’s just saying there’s no guarantee and there’s still inherent risk no matter how much people downplay it.

I’m not comfortable with that risk, especially at this stage of this process

 

[dapowl]

Panarin in his NHL career: .99 points per game
Gomez in his NHL career 2003-2007 (final 4 years): .91 points per game

Gomez was not nearly as dominant as Panarin.

Especially at even strength, Panarin is the superior player

just looked up the same thing 8 % more scoring for the same money

 

[Raspewtin]

No, it’s just saying there’s no guarantee and there’s still inherent risk no matter how much people downplay it.

I’m not comfortable with that risk, especially at this stage of this process

Well I don't see anyone saying there's "zero" risk to signing him. Just that there's a lot less.