Speculation: Roster Building Thread LIII: Free Agent Frenzy

[n8]

Has anyone ever mathed out the perfect salary distribution plan taking into full account if contract lengths, contract growth/raises timed with ELCs, RFA no-arb, RFA w/arb, to UFA? I feel like if you have an ideal budgeting projection, you can easily avoid situations where you sign bad contracts or essentially under-budget your cap (i.e. overpay on some players) and then you will have wiggle room to make adjustments or update the budgeting model based on the cap increase projections. I feel like science could definitively calculate if $12M AAV is untenable or if $11M AAV in untenable or if even $10M AAV is just bad cap management.

 

[ncmike]

But if you work at a bunch of places? It’s not like the players that play away games in NY have 100% of their income taxes in NY.

I have no clue whatsoever.

If you play 5 games in New Jersey, you pay 5/82 of your salary to New Jersey at NJ rates. 4 games against Pitt and philly than it’s 8/82 to the state of Pennsylvania. Etc. Etc

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If we want to objectively look at the "contenders" for Panarin....

Franchise Prestige or overall brand - NYR, NYI, FLA
Money available to offer - NYI, FLA, NYR
Ability to offer contracts to both Panarin and Bob - FLA and NYI
Readiness to contend with him in the lineup - FLA, NYI, NYR
Amount of Russians on team - NYR, FLA, NYI

Coach Q is an x factor that only FL has.

There are large Russian communities in both NY (Brighton Beach) and FL (Sunny Isles).

The only way he ends up with the Rangers is if he really wants to be here and that is going to take him conceding on either money or term, more likely money because I don't think the term really bothers them.

Other players have done it, but I'm not so sure that the NYR are his preferred destination. They might be and score board graphic snafu (which is pretty much a non issue) aside I'm confident that any presentation they put together will blow what other teams assemble out of the water, but NYR being the favorite is based off of speculation from almost a year ago. Even if its true, things change.

 

[Trxjw]

Jersey shore, Hamptons, etc...

Miami area is way too congested and mass transportation is non existent. I don’t care for it much and Sunrise vs. MSG isn’t even a comp.

Matter of personal preference. I get it either way - more money in Fl or more environment and legacy in NY. Nice to have choices.

The Hamptons are beautiful but you're certainly not swimming at Main Beach in January like you can in Florida.

 

[Ola]

The Hamptons are beautiful but you're certainly not swimming at Main Beach in January like you can in Florida.

Another factor is that Florida just don’t have much of a fan base.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Another factor is that Florida just don’t have much of a fan base.

Panarin would be a big part of trying to fix that

 

[Trxjw]

Another factor is that Florida just don’t have much of a fan base.

Florida has a good fan base. They've just had a terrible on-ice product for a long time and small markets have a hard time filling seats when the product is bad. One good season and that it'll be raining rats in no time.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

See I know we will have cap space after trading krieder, not signing panarin, trading vesey, names, and the contract runs out on shatty Smith and Staal. It will give us a shit load of cap space which I see us continually drafting in great spots in the next year or two. At that time I see us using the cap space to make the trades like we did with trouba and that's how we use our cap space. I think it's the smart and right thing to do in order to build a contender filled with home grown talent and great trades for young roster players to fill the gaps. So many teams will continue to be in cap hell and we are sitting pretty with our cap and a seriously tremendous prospect pool. Continue the course and use our cap space in positive moves for now and the future. Let's build a perennial cup contender the only right way

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Someone’s gotta say it, Bob and Bread are in love

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Im praying he signs in FLA..

 

[Leetch3]

on the photoshop mess up...it happens. marvel ads for spiderman with nick fury's eye patch on different eyes.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I gotta be honest...this is one of the silliest controversies in a long time.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I gotta be honest...this is one of the silliest controversies in a long time.

Panarin? Jersey numbers? The photoshop? Or if RB = Brooks?

 

[Ghost of jas]

Panarin? Jersey numbers? The photoshop? Or if RB = Brooks?

Photoshop

 

[Thirty One]

on the photoshop mess up...it happens. marvel ads for spiderman with nick fury's eye patch on different eyes.

Outrageous.

 

[hi]

How is this a thing? It's clear that if Panarin signs with the Rangers, they will force him to play left handed to help tank for Lafreniere

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Panarin? Jersey numbers? The photoshop? Or if RB = Brooks?

RB being Brooks is the most ridiculous HF myth

 

[eco's bones]

Frankly, I’d rather do the opposite. What was Marner’s point total this season? I’m willing to bet that Marner’s contract ends being a much better value than Panarin’s. Part of the benefit of accumulating so many assets is to make the trade you just described.

Well Toronto's in a bad spot. A pretty decent chance that Marner is going to hold out because the Leafs are not going to be able to pay enough to satisfy him--and they've got other players still need signing too. Moving on from Marner for them means giving up on a great young player. OTOH it gives them some cap relief and probably for at least a year or two--makes it manageable anyway and it's not really now. And a 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 where they're getting quality young players back also helps them fill several holes with manageable cap hits and diversify their lineup. If they all pan out well they might actually be a better team for it in a few years.

But there's no question it helps the Rangers and right away and the Rangers can afford his cap and we've still got a bunch of great prospects--the main forwards being Kakko and Kravtsov anyway. Marner's maybe a couple years older than Chytil and Andersson and well established as a young stud. I like Chytil a lot but I don't think he's going to be nearly as good as Marner and I definitely don't think Andersson will.

 

[egelband]

Disagree. It’s quite a large lapse in attention to detail. If a MLB club goes to recruit a pitcher in free agency and used a photoshop of him as a lefty when he’s really a righty, that’s just some meaningless error? It makes them look foolish.

This is where the organization is attempting to put its best foot forward and sell a player on coming to play for them. Whether or not AP cares or it impacts his decision isn’t known, but it’s a pretty embarrassing miss.

Correct. If they loved a lefty's picture they could have mirrored it to make it a righty. It's one extra mouse click.

 

[eco's bones]

See I know we will have cap space after trading krieder, not signing panarin, trading vesey, names, and the contract runs out on shatty Smith and Staal. It will give us a **** load of cap space which I see us continually drafting in great spots in the next year or two. At that time I see us using the cap space to make the trades like we did with trouba and that's how we use our cap space. I think it's the smart and right thing to do in order to build a contender filled with home grown talent and great trades for young roster players to fill the gaps. So many teams will continue to be in cap hell and we are sitting pretty with our cap and a seriously tremendous prospect pool. Continue the course and use our cap space in positive moves for now and the future. Let's build a perennial cup contender the only right way

Not sure I get what you're saying here--you can't trade cap space in and of itself. You can trade for players but you have to trade players, prospects or draft picks back. If we're picking up more expensive higher end players we're going to be accomplishing that with either higher end players of our own or with young players, prospects and draft picks. So if in the future we trade for a 29 year old Rantanen (just to use him as an example) we'll most likely be sending draft picks, prospects and younger players back to get him--either that or some stud of our own. But there's no money for player deals anymore--the NHL made them illegal.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

Well Toronto's in a bad spot. A pretty decent chance that Marner is going to hold out because the Leafs are not going to be able to pay enough to satisfy him--and they've got other players still need signing too. Moving on from Marner for them means giving up on a great young player. OTOH it gives them some cap relief and probably for at least a year or two--makes it manageable anyway and it's not really now. And a 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 where they're getting quality young players back also helps them fill several holes with manageable cap hits and diversify their lineup. If they all pan out well they might actually be a better team for it in a few years.

But there's no question it helps the Rangers and right away and the Rangers can afford his cap and we've still got a bunch of great prospects--the main forwards being Kakko and Kravtsov anyway. Marner's maybe a couple years older than Chytil and Andersson and well established as a young stud. I like Chytil a lot but I don't think he's going to be nearly as good as Marner and I definitely don't think Andersson will.

Agree and to be honest I think Marner has a heck of a lot more value than Panarin. First off, he can play center, hes only 22 years old and he is flat out better. This is a guy who can be a face of the franchise for a long career. It's well worth some of our B prospects(hard to believe chytil is a B prospect, but for us he is), and maybe some draft picks.

 

[Clown Fiesta]

The Rangers have many ways to sweeten a deal for Panarin including a significant upfront front loading and contract payments structured as bonuses (which would not be subject to state taxes) Think net present value of cash. I am sure the Rangers pitch to Panarin included financial strategies, endorsement opportunities and a conversation about the top heavy Atlantic Division.

I’m on vacation and gotten texts from my hockey friends telling me he’s signing with the Rangers and he is not.

I was in St Mark’s Cathedral in Venice when the Rangers signed Kevin Hayes and I’ll be in Glacier National Park (which I consider to be another Cathedral) on Monday. So we’ll see...

No way, I live about 45 minutes from GNP on the west side. Staying in the area long?

 

[egelband]

would you turn down 80 million dollars because someone made a photoshop error. I know I certainly would!

The thing is they're not trying to sell him on the biggest money. They're trying- presumably- to sell him on the team's direction and, by extension, management. Not to make too big a deal but this kind of thing doesn't scream Great Managrment.

They say you can judge a restaurant by how clean and tidy the toilets are. It's attention to detail. It's say they should get it right. Is it make-or-break? No. But it's not a positive either.

 

[eco's bones]

Agree and to be honest I think Marner has a heck of a lot more value than Panarin. First off, he can play center, hes only 22 years old and he is flat out better. This is a guy who can be a face of the franchise for a long career. It's well worth some of our B prospects(hard to believe chytil is a B prospect, but for us he is), and maybe some draft picks.

Well we have the assets where we might be able to pull it off. Kakko is off limits though--no chance he moves and I would be extremely reluctant to move Kravtsov--if they insisted on him they would not get much more--maybe one other piece and not a 1st rounder. Miller would be another I'd be reluctant about.

 

[egelband]

He's going to end up in Florida.

They have the tax advantage and the space.

I don't see him signing with the Devils as they're a **** franchise. Isles and FLA both have an advantage in the sense that they can offer an opportunity for a packaged deal with the 2 of them. I can see both NJ and NYI coming in with the highest bids but still falling short.

I'm not even a fan of signing this guy at 11 million. 12 would be insane.

The Devils are not a shit franchise. Not since the 80s, anyhow.