I'm now leaning towards not signing Panarin. I think a Panarin contract is just too risky before we know how some of the kids turn out.
The biggest issue with a Panarin deal is the precedent. What happens in 3 years if Kravtsov and Kakko are viewed as equally important as Panarin? How are we going to pay 3x 12m contracts on the same team -- and on 3 wingers no less. That's the pretty much the issue plaguing the Leafs. The Matthews contract meant Nylander and Marner would need to get paid in a similar stratosphere. It meant having to give up a first rounder just to dump Marleau's 10m.
This is also why I've come around on the idea of trading Kreider in addition to no Panarin. With the D now flush, the Rangers need to build out the rest of the young forwards. Trades involving Kreider, Vesey and Namestnikov should be about bringing in young forwards and picks. (and in some cases, opening up Roster spots). Kreider and maybe Buch and Lundqvist are the last 3 chips we can use to stock up on young assets (aside from slowly building through draft).
On a completely separate note. There are lots of different lessons you can take from this years playoffs. Here's one take I haven't really heard. While it's a fact that the Blues and Bruins were the two heaviest teams in the playoffs, one could argue that the thing that really set them apart from the rest of the league was the strength of their Defense corps to get the puck out of their own zone. Both teams had multiple big-bodied skilled defensemen that had the ability to stop the forecheck dead in its tracks and get the play going back the other way.
Neither team was particularly deep when it comes to elite forwards. One could argue that both were really one-line teams. But both teams were really deep on the back end. From that perspective, the Rangers rebuild seems better than most teams. They are really flush with different types of D-men at this point. Small skilled puck movers (TDA, Fox, Lundkvist, Reunanen, Jones) and Large Bodied, strong skating, skilled guys (trouba, miller, skjei, robertson rykov, hajek). If one or more of these kids really peak offensively -- then we could very well have a d core that rivals the SC Finals teams from this year.
