Speculation: Roster Building Thread III (2019/2020) - Tick Tock

[Shesterkybomb]

I'm ok with Staal if he is getting 3rd pair minutes behind Hajek and 2nd pair pk mins and no more. His salary sucks, but outside of Hajek I'm not overly excited about anyone entering the year on the left side instead.

 

[RangerBoy]

Panarin’s gonna serve you bread consistently for the next 5 years and your gonna like it.

There is more downside than upside with the contract.

The Rangers stellar track record in free agency and the league wide trend of being stuck with awful free agent contracts are warning signs.

Time will tell.

No excuses for Bread. None of the there’s too many expectations on him. He is having trouble with the weight of the enormous contract. No adjustment period to playing in New York. None of the Panarin will be better in his 2nd season after a so so first season on Broadway nonsense.

 

[RangerBoy]

Panarin is an elite player in the NHL and earned that contract. He is likely to be elite for the first half and still a great 1st liner the second half.

In his second deal, Kakko likely won't be as good as Panarin is in the back half of his contract.

But yes, let's continue dunking on a player just because he makes a lot of money. He isn't overpaid. Get over it.

Really?

Kakko will be the best player on the team by his 2nd season.

 

[egelband]

Another one who can't answer the question. Anyone? Anyone willing to give a reasonable answer as to why Rangers continue to give Marc Staal valuable minutes? It's not like they don't have choices. They have 7 D-men, he doesn't need to play 80 games. He doesn't need to play 19 minutes a game. I guess Lindsey Ruff and David Quinn should hire you guys as an assistant.

The fact that the guy with the most to lose playing Staal continues to run him out there is not meaningless or a cop out in my eyes. I know that the analytics are bad for Staal but he must bring something. Does he get the toughest matchups? I know he's pretty bad when pinned in his own end and he doesn't have any offensive game. But he seems to me pretty good at clogging the neutral zone and he was certainly more aggressive under Quinn. Like most things, I don't think it's all black-and-white.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

The fact that the guy with the most to lose playing Staal continues to run him out there is not meaningless or a cop out in my eyes. I know that the analytics are bad fit Staal but he must bring something. Does he get the toughest matchups? I know he's pretty bad when pinned in his own end and he doesn't have any offensive game. But he seems to me pretty good at clogging the neutral zone and he was certainly more aggressive under Quinn. Like most things, I don't think it's all black-and-white.

He's slightly above average at breaking up plays in the NZ. Teams stopped attacking him that way though. He's a sitting duck for the chip and chase.

His NZ defense isn't as great as its made out to be. It's the only part of his game that isn't a tire fire, but it's not great. He also gets caught flat footed in the NZ more than any of our other D.

 

[Rongomania]

I just cannot wrap my head around reading a post here which alluded to:

"2018/19 Staal > 2018/19 Skjei."

Whoa.

 

[egelband]

He's slightly above average at breaking up plays in the NZ. Teams stopped attacking him that way though. He's a sitting duck for the chip and chase.

His NZ defense isn't as great as its made out to be. It's the only part of his game that isn't a tire fire, but it's not great. He also gets caught flat footed in the NZ more than any of our other D.

My guess is that this season he starts as the second pairing LD and then moves down to the third pair when/if one of the youngsters (I guess that's either Hajek or Rykov) steps up. And he's probably pretty well-suited to that kind of role.

 

[haveandare]

"The KHL is less physical and less taxing overall. "

Ok, still it is over 5 years in time. And say maybe 3 years comparable to NHL in games played. But the way management explains it, you would think he has many more years to play. And that may be so, but certainly not at a high caliber worth 11 mil a year.

Yeah that’s reasonable. Though 11m a year in 4-5 years may be worth a very different caliber of player than it is today.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I see you like analogies. Here's one for you: Marc Staal is that old guy in the office. He has no clue how the new tools work, but he's been working the same job for 30 years and management loves him for reasons other than his performance. Sure, he fails to meet his deadlines, and he struggles to keep up with the new procedures, but he's been around forever. He knows everyone and is part of the culture.

That's why Staal isn't bought out

 

[Blue Blooded]

He's slightly above average at breaking up plays in the NZ. Teams stopped attacking him that way though. He's a sitting duck for the chip and chase.

His NZ defense isn't as great as its made out to be. It's the only part of his game that isn't a tire fire, but it's not great. He also gets caught flat footed in the NZ more than any of our other D.

Brendan Smith is one of the better defencemen in the league at breaking up plays in the NZ. Whatever your opinion is on Smith's overall ability as a defenceman, it clearly isn't enough to be good at that particular aspect.

 

[TheDirtyH]

There is more downside than upside with the contract.

The Rangers stellar track record in free agency and the league wide trend of being stuck with awful free agent contracts are warning signs.

Time will tell.

No excuses for Bread. None of the there’s too many expectations on him. He is having trouble with the weight of the enormous contract. No adjustment period to playing in New York. None of the Panarin will be better in his 2nd season after a so so first season on Broadway nonsense.

That's a fine place to be, but if he crushes it and scores ppg or more this season, I'd expect at least one summer off from the Great Decline by these terms.

that won't happen either tho

Really?

Kakko will be the best player on the team by his 2nd season.

that would be a testament to Kakko. he'd have to be a top-5 winger in the league at 19 for that to happen. hope you're right!

 

[RGY]

Really?

Kakko will be the best player on the team by his 2nd season.

Fantastic problem to have.

 

[Irishguy42]

1. Your data 5 on 5 doesn’t take into account that Staal might have received a much harder assignment than Skjei/Gilmour/Smith/Hajak.

It’s also proved so many times at this place that the simplistic data available cannot “adjust” for the above. A player can look like he is “no doubt the worst player in the league ever, AINEC” on one team, and then all of a sudden he changes teams and he over night performs over league average.

It just don’t fly, comparing apples with oranges. It don’t pass the very simple tests with very low thresholds.

Like use the exact same approach and compare TDA during his NY stint with Adam Clendenning during his NY stint — who is better? Let me guess, it’s the later AINEC. All Ds playing on our 3rd pairing under AV looked great data wise and different adjustments failed to account for it.

QoC is a pretty weak crutch to use. But we've gone over this before, I think.

2. @ohbaby of course make a relevant point. Right or wrong, but it’s not ‘irrelevant’ when a bunch of NHL coaches obviously is of of one opinion and a group of posters at hfboards think otherwise. Is it conclusive proof? Of course not. But not irrelevant.

Should at the very least cause some afterthought.

It actually is irrelevant because of the amount of stupidity we see in the league daily from front offices.

3. In addition, nobody is saying that Staal should win a Norris. It is certainly possible to — suck — and still be our best D at defending.

Our blueline was hardly good last season.

Staal did suck and he was definitely not our best D at defending. There is plenty of evidence to support this.

 

[bobbop]

I see you like analogies. Here's one for you: Marc Staal is that old guy in the office. He has no clue how the new tools work, but he's been working the same job for 30 years and management loves him for reasons other than his performance. Sure, he fails to meet his deadlines, and he struggles to keep up with the new procedures, but he's been around forever. He knows everyone and is part of the culture.

That's why Staal isn't bought out

A lot of truth to this

 

[NYSPORTS]

May take a year yet in a short time in the Grand scheme of things we won’t have to worry about Marc Staal.

No worries, i’m sure he’ll have an appreciation thread with retirement on page one

 

[TheBloodyNine]

"Fantastic Problems" are only fantastic until they become reality. Then they become a Marner situation and nobody is talking about how "Fantastic" the problem is anymore.

 

[Kupo]

Staal did suck and he was definitely not our best D at defending. There is plenty of evidence to support this.

I honestly preferred Pionk over Staal last season. Pionk can at lease get out of his own way and had some kind of transition to his game.

Staal is our crappiest dmen. Not sure how anyone can make a positive case for him at this point in his career.

 

[RGY]

"Fantastic Problems" are only fantastic until they become reality. Then they become a Marner situation and nobody is talking about how "Fantastic" the problem is anymore.

I thought we were going to be civil from now on? You can just @ me or quote my post rather than taking what seems like a jab and trying to slip away without notice.

Kakko will not be due his new contract for another 3 years. At that time we will have $22+ million removed from the books. Some buyout money such as Girardi will be done with. The cap will *hopefully increase, we believe it will as it has continued to do so and a new TV deal is needed.

If we have two elite players in Panarin and Kakko then yes its a fantastic problem to have imo. The team has more youth on the way who will still be on ELCs, specifically on defense. So you are forecasting a situation where you spend your money mostly upfront while saving on the backend. Sure its not as simple as this but thats what the management and their financial advisors within get paid to address.

The Marner situation is certainly not ideal. But they have been navigating through the storm and they will likely be able to sign him. They have had to maneuver a bit, removing pieces such as a Marleau or a Kadri (although they brought back Barrie’s salary) but they are going to war with Matthews-Tavares-Marner as their lead guys. And they are banking on their organizational depth in scouting and player development to fill in the bottom lines on cheaper contracts. Pittsburgh has done this. Chicago has done this. This isnt new.

 

[Roo Returns]

It's been a few days but I was laughing at people pissed and contradicting my "Greg McKegg is valuable" post. Is he going to win an Art Ross? Of course not. But there's value in having a guy who is good on the dots, PK, protect a lead, and add some energy. Anyone who called him a AAAA player didn't watch the playoffs and how much of a PITA he was especially in the Islanders series.

This isn't baseball when the aim is to have guys at every position who hit 30 HRS and bat close to .300 It's hockey in a cap era. You need good foot soldiers and the name of the game is depth and bang for buck.

 

[Irishguy42]

I honestly preferred Pionk over Staal last season. Pionk can at lease get out of his own way and had some kind of transition to his game.

Staal is our crappiest dmen. Not sure how anyone can make a positive case for him at this point in his career.

It was amusing that the two of them were better separate from each other (but still bad) than when they were together.

 

[Vitto79]

I'm ok with Staal if he is getting 3rd pair minutes behind Hajek and 2nd pair pk mins and no more. His salary sucks, but outside of Hajek I'm not overly excited about anyone entering the year on the left side instead.

I think this year it’s not a big deal having Staal and Smith as the 6/7 guys it’s more of a new issue next yr once we know how Hajek , Rykov etc look ... some time in the AHL is good but can’t block them if ready

 

[bbny]

Staal is probably the weakest defender on the team at this point, but I suspect he can be more than serviceable as a veteran on the 3rd pair.

Quality of competition absolutely matters. Playing against and shutting down 1st line players is so much more difficult than doing so against 3rd/4th line players. I'm not sure how that is even a debate here. It's what separates top pairing defensemen from bottom pairing. Staal at this point is a 3rd pairing guy, and he has been frequently asked to act as a top/2nd pairing here. This is what it looks like when a guy is in a position that doesn't fit his level of play anymore.

 

[Irishguy42]

Staal is probably the weakest defender on the team at this point, but I suspect he can be more than serviceable as a veteran on the 3rd pair.

Quality of competition absolutely matters. Playing against and shutting down 1st line players is so much more difficult than doing so against 3rd/4th line players. I'm not sure how that is even a debate here. It's what separates top pairing defensemen from bottom pairing. Staal at this point is a 3rd pairing guy, and he has been frequently asked to act as a top/2nd pairing here. This is what it looks like when a guy is in a position that doesn't fit his level of play anymore.

There is a lot more than goes into quality of competition than just "he's playing the tough minutes so that means he's frequently being asked to play against the top lines"

Here is a good read about why QoC is still important, but only in small sample sizes (think single game or shift-to-shift), and how quality of teammates is more impactful on a player's performance in the long run (the headline IS a bit clickbaity, I agree): Why Quality of Competition doesn’t matter to analytics experts anymore

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

I see you like analogies. Here's one for you: Marc Staal is that old guy in the office. He has no clue how the new tools work, but he's been working the same job for 30 years and management loves him for reasons other than his performance. Sure, he fails to meet his deadlines, and he struggles to keep up with the new procedures, but he's been around forever. He knows everyone and is part of the culture.

That's why Staal isn't bought out

That is so dead on balls accurate(can anyone guess that movie reference?). Perfect example: I work in an operating room. We have this guy who’s been there for 45 years no joke. He’s retiring next year and he said completely checked out. He missed 3 months this winter because he cut his thumb on a knife and got 3 stitches, seriously. He milked out the injury for 3 months then came back a few months ago. Since then he literally does nothing on the job. Walks around, talks to people, doesn’t help anyone, sits in the lounge watches tv, so when we see him actually doing work we all look the other way and don’t help him. Management knows he’s a liability but they won’t do anything about him. Every time we raise a complaint they laugh. They know they can’t so anything about him so they’re just riding out the remaining year and that’s that. So your analogy was spot on.

 

[Kupo]

Amazing